Russia

Frau Muller

From Puerto Rico…With Love!
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Ballet star Sergei Polunin - Ilinikh’s husband and bearer of Putin tattoo on his torso - is censured in Uzbekistan for having danced a pro-Russia solo at a gala show.

 

text_skate

Well-Known Member
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1,716
Interview with Grigori Yudin in FAZ (behind paywall) , found it insightful

a rather long excerpt, maschine translated
Putin's main method so far has been to demobilise his own people. Now he is betting on mobilisation. "This is an absolutely new experiment," says the Moscow social scientist Grigory Yudin in an interview.
Grigory Borisovich, did the mobilisation ordered by President Putin last Wednesday take Russians by surprise?

The majority, no doubt. So far, dismay dominates. Some are starting to take measures, trying to hide. Others are preparing to fight.

Why are people surprised?

Russia is a very depoliticised country. For most people, politics doesn't exist: they try to stay away from it as much as possible, don't think about political events, are absolutely sure that what happens in the world politically has nothing to do with them, will never affect them. At least, that's how it was for a long time. Mobilisation means that politics starts to affect a much wider circle of people; not all at once, but of course everyone in the country knows about mobilisation. People are starting to think about the situation.

Does Putin now risk losing his status as a "good tsar"?

The model of the relationship with the emperor is changing. The latter was previously seen as the one who took care of the state and politics, allowing his subjects to pursue their own affairs and not demanding any involvement from them. This created space for personal development. Now this model has been, if not completely destroyed, then undermined.

What happens when this ruling principle is destroyed?

Good question. In practical terms, it is about what happens when the main method or tactic of governing in Russia is no longer demobilisation but, on the contrary, mobilisation. Putin has never done this on this scale before - and he has been in power for more than 20 years. It is a completely new situation, an absolutely new experiment. There is a very bad symptom of this: Russia's society is very atomised, the horizontal ties between people are weak. Everyone relies on himself and on the fact that the "Tsar" will not do anything bad. This kind of atomised mass is a perfect building material for a fascist society; this is exactly what Germany looked like in the early thirties. On the other hand, Putin has never acted like he does now: he likes not so much mobilisation but police methods of leadership, where he controls everything and no one does anything without his approval. Putin is very far from the people, afraid of them, of any collective action and initiative from below. If he now tries to become a mobilising leader, it can easily fail because he has no real contact with a large part of the population, actually keeps himself out of contact. So it will be very difficult for Putin to draw people into anything. It looks like a significant part of Russian society is not really ready to follow Putin, especially the younger, more progressive, propertied groups who don't understand what this is all about. It is an unpredictable situation.

What happens if the mobilisation fails or does not bring military success, if Putin is left as a weak leader?

A military defeat of Putin would mean his end. There can be no doubt about that.

And if the war drags on?

In a sense, it is necessary for Putin now: His calculation is that countries like Germany will freeze and give in. But so far the delay has not benefited Putin - he hesitated and hesitated and got the defeat in Kharkiv. Then the generals told him that the next defeat might be just around the corner. So he ordered mobilisation.

Now Putin is preparing to annex more areas of Ukraine. Is there support for this in Russian society?

The word suggests that there is some kind of democratic expression of will, a common awakening of citizens. But with us it works something like this: if you get too outraged, you get punched in the nose. If you just mind your own business, you don't. That's where the general indifference comes from. It is a sad situation.

Moscow is threatening to use nuclear weapons as well to defend its conquests in Ukraine after the annexations. Would Putin go that far?

I would take the nuclear threat very seriously. Putin has said several times that the world makes no sense without Russia - and by "Russia" he means himself, of course. He has this construct in his head that there is no Russia unless there is a strong emperor there. So if something threatens Putin and his plans, desires and expansions, it is unclear why the world still needs it: Who needs a world without Putin?
In Russia, Putin's sentence (about the danger of nuclear war from October 2018, ed.) is now often quoted: "We go to paradise like martyrs, and they just die." I see no reason to take this lightly. But that ultimately means giving in to nuclear blackmail; and that with the help of nuclear blackmail, you can occupy territories and commit genocide against the population there. I think such a world is doomed, because Putin will certainly not stop at Ukraine. If Putin succeeded in nuclear blackmail, it would be an absolutely monstrous scenario. There is probably an opportunity now to influence people in the Russian elite to understand the lack of perspective in Putin's plans, which will undoubtedly end in defeat - there are no other options. When people around Putin realise this, if he decides to go to the extreme, they may decide to get rid of him rather than go with him.

On this side of the nuclear apocalypse, how do you assess Putin's willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

What is described as "escalation to de-escalation" in Russian military doctrine is the principle of raising the stakes until the opponent surrenders. The thinking behind this is that the enemy is weaker because this planet is more important to them than it is to us. Unfortunately, this way of thinking is quite common in the radical part of the Russian population. Only a minority thinks this way, 15 to 20 per cent - but it is a very loud and influential minority. In this part of the population there is an absolutely crazy idea that this war is only not over yet because we haven't scared the enemies enough. That we therefore simply have to be even more fearless, even more borderless, so that everyone gets scared and gives in; that we need a much more aggressive war to break the enemy. Because this view is very actively propagated, I suspect it comes directly from the president. In the present situation, the president has depended on and accommodated the radicals - and in that sense is himself a radical. No one is blackmailing him, nor is he trying to strike a balance between different groups. He is simply a radical.

What can Russians who are not radicals do now?

For tens of millions of Russians, what is happening right now is a tremendous tragedy. The ability of these people to do something has not been very great. The oppression is only the external side. It reinforces an inner one: depression. Every structure of self-organisation has been destroyed. All these millions of people feel lonely, in a hopeless situation. That's why I wouldn't expect too much from them now. Actually, the protest potential in Russia is very big. But it can only materialise if there is a window of opportunity in which some room for manoeuvre opens up. That is not the case at the moment. On the other hand, something interesting is happening right now: a considerable number of people in Russia who have so far tried to stay as far away from everything as possible, thinking that it was none of their business that the president decided and that this was a good thing because he knew better, have now realised that events are either affecting them now or will very likely affect them soon. They are beginning to worry seriously about their own lives, their families, their future. Now, in shock, most people are not ready to act. But they are more ready to absorb information. People have started asking questions, talking to people they didn't talk to before. So what you can do now is to offer these people a different perspective on what is happening. Maybe now there will be an opportunity for communication. Unless the situation escalates very quickly. I suspect it will.
 

airgelaal

Well-Known Member
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1,335
If the border is closed you help the war against Ukraine! Even if the men are bad fighters in Ukraine they still prolong the war because there will be self preservation killing. Purely defensive acts against Ukrainian army! I see now pro Ukraine argument for closing borders
Oh really? And now Ukrainian women and children who fled the war will not feel safe anywhere. Because these men are not against war, they will continue to terrorize Ukrainians in Europe as well. Great solution.
 

caseyedwards

Well-Known Member
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18,225
Oh really? And now Ukrainian women and children who fled the war will not feel safe anywhere. Because these men are not against war, they will continue to terrorize Ukrainians in Europe as well. Great solution.
Have attacks on Ukrainians by Russians outside of Ukraine happened a lot?
 

airgelaal

Well-Known Member
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1,335
Have attacks on Ukrainians by Russians outside of Ukraine happened a lot?
According to my friends and acquaintances, yes. Of course, this is not about physical violence, but verbal abuse. At best, they are ignored and insulted behind their backs.

A year ago, in October, I was on vacation in Egypt. Unfortunately, there were already many russians there. The only thing that saved me - headphones. But I managed to hear enough about their attitude towards Ukrainians. Ukrainian women barely had time to restrain their men.
Therefore, I would not feel safe anywhere next to the russians. I'm sorry, but there are no "good russians" for me
 
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Dobre

Well-Known Member
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14,234

A phone call. The woman says that no one in the border towns is able to leave their towns. That there are border guards everywhere. 300 people out of a Russian border town were drafted vs. 50 in Moscow. Three years in prison for dodging the draft, 15 years if you are caught later.

(Very disturbing. Gives me the vibe that Putin is tightening the noose on these distant areas first so that there would be no one left from greater Russia to back a rebellion by the time Moscow rises against him).
 
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Alilou

Ubercavorter
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Vagabond

Well-Known Member
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Panic, Bribes, Ditched Cars and a Dash on Foot: Portraits of Flight From Russia https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/...g4W8j6N86ONkfOaj3LhdIa9PFQg1ZA9sP94RYUI140p_g

(Gifted article. Link valid for two weeks.)

Police and other government officials tasked with stopping men from leaving the country are taking bribes instead, thereby leading to both a brain drain and the breakdown over the regime's control of its own agencies. SMH.
 
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Alilou

Ubercavorter
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Well this is certainly :eek: and may be a game-changer - Russian state TV people decrying, forcefully, Putin's sending unprepared and unequipped men to war.

Vladimir Putin has already lost the support of the titans of industry in his country, as well as the support of his own people. And now it looks like he might be losing the support of the propagandists that HE PAYS to say good things about him. Top executives/personalities in Russian state media are now warning that the Russian leader could be facing a military revolt over his horrible handling of the military, including his recent emergency orders sending people as old as 62 back into the service with rusty weapons. Ring of Fire's Farron Cousins explains what's happening.

 

reut

Well-Known Member
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2,042
Everything you need to know about voting in russia:

Russian State Duma deputies have ratified four treaties signed by putin. The State Duma voted unanimously in favor of ratifying each treaty, in four separate rounds of voting. Although no votes were cast against the ratifications, and none of the deputies had abstained, the State Duma tableau flashed different numbers of favorable votes cast in each case. 413 and 412 voices were recorded in favor of annexing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, respectively. 409 and 411 votes were supposedly cast in favor of annexing the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. The news outlet Agentstvo points out that only 408 deputies were registered to vote at the October 3 meeting.
Source: https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/0...ith-more-votes-in-favor-than-deputies-present

🤡 🤡 🤡
 

text_skate

Well-Known Member
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Riddle published an interesting analysis a couple of days ago by Vladislav Inozemtsev on how Putin lost the gas war with Europe
It's very detailed about the energy market

 

TAHbKA

Cats and garlic lover
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I generally don't understand why is Sobchak given a stage to speak. Her biggest achievement in life is what? Being the daughter of an ex major of St. Petersburg?
 

reut

Well-Known Member
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I generally don't understand why is Sobchak given a stage to speak. Her biggest achievement in life is what? Being the daughter of an ex major of St. Petersburg?
She is a popular journalist (she is definitely not less journalist than many others I met), bloger, vloger and other ...ogers, she has 9.4M followers on Instagram, 3.2M subscribers on YouTube. She is not "given a stage", she basically created this "stage" for herself. (Not that I'm her fan or anything)
 

Vagabond

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Gifted article, link valid for two weeks.

That so many Russians took so long to start worrying about the war in Ukraine has infuriated Ukrainians, who have endured seven months of torment and bloodshed. Even now, Russians who fled rarely talk about the war, focusing on their own travails with housing, money and unfamiliar customs.

After decades of being treated as Russia’s poor and desperate country cousins, many Kyrgyz, including the country’s president, Sadyr Japarov, are happy to see the shoe on the other foot.

I encourage everyone to read the entire article. 🇰🇬
 

allezfred

In A Fake Snowball Fight
Staff member
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OPEC countries and Russia have decided to cut oil production by two million barrels a day, which will raise prices, help Russia pay for its war and wreck economies worldwide even further.

Even their own people never benefit from the decisions of these lot. :blah: :angryfire
If climate change hasn’t convinced people that we need to invest massively in renewables, removing our dependence on dictatorships and autocracies for fossil fuels should.
 

Dai's Blues for Klook

Well-Known Member
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OPEC countries and Russia have decided to cut oil production by two million barrels a day, which will raise prices, help Russia pay for its war and wreck economies worldwide even further.

Even their own people never benefit from the decisions of these lot. :blah: :angryfire
Well...


In the five months following the invasion of Ukraine, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan imported a combined US$5.5 billion of fossil fuels from Russia, according to a Finland-based think tank.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimated Japan bought US$2.6 billion of Russian coal, oil and gas while South Korea and Taiwan bought US$1.7 billion and US$1.2 billion respectively.

The three economies had expressed support for Ukraine without laying out concrete timelines for phasing out purchases of Russian fossil fuels and are likely, according to CREA, to emerge as Russia’s top importers as sanctions kick in elsewhere.

Shihoko Goto, deputy director for the Asia Program at the Wilson Center in Washington said that unlike the United States, East Asia remained dependent on importing energy, including from Russia.

While the region is not as reliant on Russian energy as Europe, most of Asia cannot be self-sufficient when it comes to meeting energy needs, Goto said, adding that countries such as Japan were looking to diversify their sources of energy in the longer term.

A resource-poor island nation, Japan is particularly vulnerable to shocks in global energy markets, for at 11.2 per cent in 2020, it has one of the lowest energy self-sufficiency rates among OECD countries.
 

Asli

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If climate change hasn’t convinced people that we need to invest massively in renewables, removing our dependence on dictatorships and autocracies for fossil fuels should.
Absolutely! The day oil becomes worthless is the day we can boycott the hell out of Saudi Arabia and the likes until they stop their apartheid against women. Can't wait.
 
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Vagabond

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22,802
Speaking of fossil fuels....

I don't think it's been mentioned in PI, but the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic were sabotaged recently, resulting in leaks off the coast of Denmark and Sweden and resulting in shutdowns.


Russia is blaming the U.S. If you believe that, then if got a bridge I'd like to sell you.
 

Karen-W

Neither sexy nor sultry, but loving life!
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Absolutely! The day oil to becomes worthless is the day we can boycott the hell out of Saudi Arabia and the likes until they stop their apartheid against women. Can't wait.
So, explain to me why we haven't done the same to China... We aren't beholden to them for oil. :shuffle:


Just to say it's more than a little simplistic to assume that ending reliance on fossil fuels will bring an end to dictatorships and imperialistic designs over a vast portion of two continents. Those existed well before our fossil fuel consumption skyrocketed. A quick review of Russia's history tells us this.
 

PRlady

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41,292
So, explain to me why we haven't done the same to China... We aren't beholden to them for oil. :shuffle:


Just to say it's more than a little simplistic to assume that ending reliance on fossil fuels will bring an end to dictatorships and imperialistic designs over a vast portion of two continents. Those existed well before our fossil fuel consumption skyrocketed. A quick review of Russia's history tells us this.
China owns the majority of our debt and manufactures all our low-price consumer goods. We are certainly beholden to them, too.
 

Karen-W

Neither sexy nor sultry, but loving life!
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China owns the majority of our debt and manufactures all our low-price consumer goods. We are certainly beholden to them, too.
Oh, I realize this. However, I stated "we aren't beholden to them for oil." But, being beholden to China in the way that we are certainly isn't any better and it's been a concern of mine for many years.
 

Asli

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China owns the majority of our debt and manufactures all our low-price consumer goods. We are certainly beholden to them, too.
Plus China is one fifth of the world's population. Because of their sheer scale, it's impossible to put pressure on them. Rather one wonders what's stopping them from being more influential on the world political stage. Probably they think the subtler touch works better for them rather than the elephant in the china shop approach the USA chooses.
 

Karen-W

Neither sexy nor sultry, but loving life!
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Plus China is one fifth of the world's population. Because of their sheer scale, it's impossible to put pressure on them. Rather one wonders what's stopping them from being more influential on the world political stage. Probably they think the subtler touch works better for them rather than the elephant in the china shop approach the USA chooses.
That's so cute that you think China's approach is subtle.
 

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