Qualification to Team Competition at the Beijing Olympics

carriecmu0503

Well-Known Member
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482
LOLOL. Yeah, no, Jason's not doing the TE. As you said, Nathan's probably doing the SP. And, since Vincent is already in LA for Team Processing, it's a safe bet he's been tapped for the FS, especially since we now know Jason won't be heading out until the 30th/31st. I'm guessing we'll see the skaters designated for the TE flying out on the 27th. That gives them plenty of time to get tested upon arrival, cleared for the closed loop bubble, adjusted for the time change, and onto the ice for practices by Sunday.
Was is really necessary to laugh like this at the logic viewpoint of someone else? What I said was not off the wall, and very well could be the truth. We will not know until the event starts. What I do know right now is that you are really rude.
 

tony

But it just doesn't fcuking glide
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12,574
I would not read anything into that regarding the TE. The men's (individual) short program is only one day after the men's long program segment of the TE. My guess would be that IF Nathan is going to participate in the TE, he will do the SP. Regardless of who is going to do the team long program, the men need to be in China at pretty much the same time since the men's individual event starts only 1 day after the men's team event ends.
There are 2 days between the mens LP in the team competition and the individual competition. Still a quick turn-around, but not as you have it written.

I still don't think Jason will be in the team competition either way.
 

Karen-W

Well-Known Member
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17,574
Was is really necessary to laugh like this at the logic viewpoint of someone else? What I said was not off the wall, and very well could be the truth. We will not know until the event starts. What I do know right now is that you are really rude.
Your "logic viewpoint" is illogical, though. Why would Jason arrive later than the rest of the skaters participating in the TE? He's going to arrive approximately a week before the Men's event begins. Vincent and K/F, it would seem, are arriving a week before the TE begins. The LOGICAL deduction is that Jason will NOT be doing the TE since he is arriving only 3-4 days before the TE begins. That's how logic works. And, also, logic doesn't give a damn about your hurt little feelings because you think I was rude to laugh at your illogical grasping at the last straws of hope that Jason is going to be used in the TE.
 

Frau Muller

From Puerto Rico…With Love!
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17,107
….I'm guessing we'll see the skaters designated for the TE flying out on the 27th. That gives them plenty of time to get tested upon arrival, cleared for the closed loop bubble, adjusted for the time change, and onto the ice for practices by Sunday.
This assumes that test results will be negative. If positive, it’s off to the 25 sq-ft “isolation facility” for several days, until they test negative!
 

Karen-W

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This assumes that test results will be negative. If positive, it’s off to the 25 sq-ft “isolation facility” for several days, until they test negative!
Well, exactly - having the athletes that will be used for the TE leave later this week rather than early next week hopefully gives them time to test negative if they don't clear the first airport test. 🤞
 

sheetz

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473
This article confirms Jason's arrival on the 31st. Interesting that it says he will be required to isolate upon arrival.
Ahead of the Feb. 4 opening ceremony of the Winter Games, Brown’s schedule is packed with training, conducting interviews with Team U.S.A. and preparing for the Games’ Covid-19 protocol, which will require an isolation period following his arrival on Jan. 31. While coaches Wilson and Orser will make the trip to Beijing with Brown, his family will watch his performances on television from places like Los Angeles and Chicago in the U.S.
 

Karen-W

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This article confirms Jason's arrival on the 31st. Interesting that it says he will be required to isolate upon arrival.
All of the arriving athletes are required to isolate in their hotel rooms until their airport PCR tests come back - then they're allowed to enter the closed loop bubble.
 

carriecmu0503

Well-Known Member
Messages
482
Your "logic viewpoint" is illogical, though. Why would Jason arrive later than the rest of the skaters participating in the TE? He's going to arrive approximately a week before the Men's event begins. Vincent and K/F, it would seem, are arriving a week before the TE begins. The LOGICAL deduction is that Jason will NOT be doing the TE since he is arriving only 3-4 days before the TE begins. That's how logic works. And, also, logic doesn't give a damn about your hurt little feelings because you think I was rude to laugh at your illogical grasping at the last straws of hope that Jason is going to be used in the TE.
Seriously? I do not care if Jason is used in the TE! I wanted Ilia to be on the Olympic team........Your verbal harassment throughout this post is just uncalled for.
 

Karen-W

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With Kolyada out, can the Rus Fed just use Kamila for the men’s free?
No, lol. But, wasn't there a report last week, after Euros, that the Russian Coaches Council had voted to have Kondratiuk do the TE for them? I think Kolyada was already out of consideration before this withdrawal.
 

Aceon6

Isolating from mean people
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26,031
So I'm wondering if Roman Sadovsky is doing part of the TE for Canada. On his instagram 2 days ago he said less than a week before flying out to Beijing. That would have him there well in time for the TE and a week and a half early for the Men's event. (Maddie Schizas' instagram seems to be saying the same travel date, and since we know she's taking part in the TE...)
I’m not reading much into the departure dates. Some may just want to get into the bubble and not have to worry about it.
 

Theatregirl1122

Needs a nap
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26,916
It’s possible. Men are the event I imagine most teams that make the free are most likely to split because of the fast turn around.

Obviously Canada doesn’t always use both its splits, but I got the impression people were expecting a split in pairs based on the choice of J/R for the team. Was another split expected?
 

Karen-W

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It’s possible. Men are the event I imagine most teams that make the free are most likely to split because of the fast turn around.

Obviously Canada doesn’t always use both its splits, but I got the impression people were expecting a split in pairs based on the choice of J/R for the team. Was another split expected?
I don't know what Canada's strategy or outlook is this year, so it's hard to say. I don't know that there is likely to be a different result in using Sadovsky in the FS instead of Messing, so it could make sense to split them.

I almost expect Skate Canada to double down on the "controversial" pairs selection by NOT splitting the TE, especially since Pairs is the last event of the Olympics this year.

And, honestly, things might be fluid until all of the skaters get into the closed loop bubble, especially if Russia loses more skaters... Canada might decide to split Dance, thinking that FBSor could beat StepBuk in the FD and get the same points as GilPoir probably would get.
 

screech

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It’s possible. Men are the event I imagine most teams that make the free are most likely to split because of the fast turn around.

Obviously Canada doesn’t always use both its splits, but I got the impression people were expecting a split in pairs based on the choice of J/R for the team. Was another split expected?
I was wondering if they'd split men. Keegan is by far our best, however he's 'old' and has a baby at home so has probably been sleep deprived all season. Keegan could reasonably place anywhere from 3-5 in either program. Roman could be anywhere from 3rd to last.

Though I doubt they'll do it, I wouldn't be surprised if they split dance. G/P will likely be anywhere from 2-4 in whatever segment they do (behind Russia and/or USA). FB/S could reasonably be 3-5 (possibly behind Italy), so not too much difference in placement if they wanted to split dance.
 

tony

But it just doesn't fcuking glide
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I was wondering if they'd split men. Keegan is by far our best, however he's 'old' and has a baby at home so has probably been sleep deprived all season. Keegan could reasonably place anywhere from 3-5 in either program. Roman could be anywhere from 3rd to last.
I have a feeling Canada won't be a huge medal threat after the SPs and Roman can skate the LP to give Keegan a breather for the individual event. With the USA and Japan in the finals, it probably wouldn't make much a difference who skates that segment anyways even if Roman has a meltdown skate.
Though I doubt they'll do it, I wouldn't be surprised if they split dance. G/P will likely be anywhere from 2-4 in whatever segment they do (behind Russia and/or USA). FB/S could reasonably be 3-5 (possibly behind Italy), so not too much difference in placement if they wanted to split dance.
Except IMO Japan is a for sure in the top 5 final and that means FB/S aren't finishing lower than 4th in the FD, potentially 3rd if China is also there instead of Italy. So that switch of G/P for RD and FB/S for FD wouldn't make a huge difference if anything at all. I think pairs would be split over dance, though, unless Skate Canada asked the National Champions what they wanted. In that case maybe Moore-Towers decided she wanted pairs all to herself, because..
 

thvu

Usova's Apprentice
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I think the only difference between Keegan and Sadovsky in the Team Event for the LP is Keegan can place above Kondratiuk, which would help the US for their shot at a Team Gold. Sadovsky 100% places behind Kondratiuk.
 

dancelion21

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There's no way that Gilles/Poirier don't pass up the opportunity to skate the team event since it can build momentum for the individual. Just look at what happened to Virtue/Moir and the Shibutanis last Olympics. It can especially help them since the American teams are likely to be splitting.

I think that Keegan should skate the short and Roman the free. Keegan has been pretty consistent with short programs this season and splitting duties will help to make sure both men can perform well in the individual. It also shouldn't make too much of a difference in the free. Both Keegan and Roman's SB scores are extremely similar. It probably won't matter much in the end since Canada's not getting a medal anyway.

It seems pretty certain now that Mark is going to have to do it solo for Russia. He's been really good in his last two competitions, but I'm very worried for him. He has so little international experience, he's never even competed at Worlds before. The Olympics is a totally different game in terms of pressure, and the Russian media will not be kind to him if he messes up even a little bit.
 

Karen-W

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As the National champ, does Mariah get to choose whether to do the TE or not? Of course she would be foolish to say no.
No idea. Per the US Selection Criteria doc, the IC Discipline Committee would have ranked the 3 team members and whomever they ranked #1 gets first right of refusal.
 

toddlj

San Jose 2023!
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Here is the US Selection Criteria doc - https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022 Winter Olympic Games Selection Procedures FINAL.pdf

The ranking is complex.



So, per this document - the disciplines are ranked by medal chances.

#1 Men - Group 1 - Nathan, Group 2 - Vincent
#2 Dance - Group 2 - C/B and H/D
#3 & 4 (tie) - Women & Pairs - Group 2 - Liu and K/F

Within that discipline ranking -

#1 Nathan
#2 Vincent
#3 & 4 - C/B and H/D - whichever team wins Nats is going to be ranked #3 and the other will be #4
#5 & 6 - Women and Pairs - this is where it could get interesting if someone other than Liu or K/F win. I'm not sure what the IC will do if someone who is in Group 3 or 4 wins Nats - the way their group rankings are constructed, first rights of refusal should go to Liu and K/F as long as both finish Top 5 at Nats.
Way back on page 10 of this thread, @Karen-W shared the actual selection criteria and it seems quite clear upon review. Based on medal chances, international results, not on nationals results. Nothing to add other than to resurface this post and say that I agree.
 

Karen-W

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H/D as national champs in 2018 did not. I feel like they’re looking a lot at international results.
The Shibs also had the higher WS and beat them (and C/B) at the GPF a month earlier.

I don't think there is a clear case for any of the women to be #1 over another, so I would probably err of the side of the Nats SP results since the SP is the more critical part of the TE.
 

toddlj

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I don't think there is a clear case for any of the women to be #1 over another, so I would probably err of the side of the Nats SP results since the SP is the more critical part of the TE.
Alysa's GP scores and placements were higher than Mariah's, as well as her SB and her WS so I'm not sure I'd say it was a tossup internationally. (I know a lot of people say Alysa's Lombardia score should be ignored as the judging was lax there, but to be honest Mariah's SB also seemed a bit inflated.)

That said, if they are viewing current readiness and upward trend, I can see a good argument for Mariah.
 

Karen-W

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Alysa's GP scores and placements were higher than Mariah's, as well as her SB and her WS so I'm not sure I'd say it was a tossup internationally. (I know a lot of people say Alysa's Lombardia score should be ignored as the judging was lax there, but to be honest Mariah's SB also seemed a bit inflated.)

That said, if they are viewing current readiness and upward trend, I can see a good argument for Mariah.
No, Alysa's GP scores were NOT higher than Mariah's. Mariah scored 190.79 at IdF and 210.35 at Rostelecom. Alysa scored 206.35 at SCI and 202.90 at NHK. Mixed bag, IMO.

I think the scoring trends will be a deciding factor. Alysa was soundly beaten by both Mariah and Karen at US Nats, plus her scores were trending down as the season wore on. Even if you do take Lombardia into consideration, it has to be viewed as part of the whole picture.

Mariah definitely doesn't have the WS but that also is a function of her missing the early part of the season due to a nagging injury from the summer and needing to redo her SP after it was universally panned at both Cranberry and Champs Camp.

I've said, consistently, that I don't think it matters which woman is used, they're both likely to place the same in each segment of the TE, so my default would be going with the National Champ, who did win the SP at Nats.

ETA - if the USFS ranked them by WS then Karen would be in the TE. Karen's #8, Alysa #14 and Mariah #27.
 
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barbk

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7,502
I was wondering if they'd split men. Keegan is by far our best, however he's 'old' and has a baby at home so has probably been sleep deprived all season. Keegan could reasonably place anywhere from 3-5 in either program. Roman could be anywhere from 3rd to last.
I certainly hope that they don't use age or whether a skater has a baby at home as a rationale for not choosing a skater. :yikes:
 

Vash01

Fan of Yuzuru, T&M, P&C
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I think the only difference between Keegan and Sadovsky in the Team Event for the LP is Keegan can place above Kondratiuk, which would help the US for their shot at a Team Gold. Sadovsky 100% places behind Kondratiuk.
Is there such a thing as 100 percent in fs?- or in any sport?
The ice is slippery.
 

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