Qualification to Team Competition at the Beijing Olympics

seabm7

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I have been wondering for a while, sooner or later ISU has to announce how they are going to select the team competition entries. Since the season 2020-2021 has been virtually non-existent, ISU may have to include the 2019-2020 season results to count the points.

Have there been any other discussions on this matter?
 
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skatingguy

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I have been wondering for a while, sooner or later ISU has to announce how they are going to select the team competition entries. Since the season 2020-2021 has been virtually non-existent, ISU may have to include the 2019-2020 season results to count the points.

Have there been any other discussions on this matter?
Technically Worlds is the first qualifier for the team event, though countries can usually use World Juniors, Four Continents, & Europeans if they didn't have an entry at Worlds. I don't think anything has been announced regarding Olympic qualification at all at this point.
 

Karen-W

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Technically Worlds is the first qualifier for the team event, though countries can usually use World Juniors, Four Continents, & Europeans if they didn't have an entry at Worlds. I don't think anything has been announced regarding Olympic qualification at all at this point.
Right - points are accumulated for qualifying events over the previous two seasons (at least that's how it worked in 2018), so with those three events and most of this season having been wiped out, the question is, will the ISU use results from 2018-19 (similar to them allowing TES from that season to qualify for this year's Worlds) or will they come up with an entirely different qualification system? The IOC requires that the countries which have qualified for the team event as well as the alternates to be named in early December, IIRC, which means there won't be much of an opportunity for countries to qualify during the fall. Maybe only take results from the Challenger and GP Series?
 

skatingguy

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Right - points are accumulated for qualifying events over the previous two seasons (at least that's how it worked in 2018), so with those three events and most of this season having been wiped out, the question is, will the ISU use results from 2018-19 (similar to them allowing TES from that season to qualify for this year's Worlds) or will they come up with an entirely different qualification system? The IOC requires that the countries which have qualified for the team event as well as the alternates to be named in early December, IIRC, which means there won't be much of an opportunity for countries to qualify during the fall. Maybe only take results from the Challenger and GP Series?
Well so far they could just use Worlds, and then the Grand Prix next season and that would be the same as 2018. Though countries could use World Juniors, Europeans, & Four Continents, if they didn't have a Worlds entry, none of the teams that qualified for the Olympics used points from those events.
 

Karen-W

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With the overall shrinking of the pairs field this quad, it's unclear to me if there's even going to be more than ten countries with all the necessary entrants.
That's a really good point. Russia, Canada, and the USA are the only countries likely to qualify entrants in all 4 disciplines next month at Worlds. Japan might since the pairs field is so much smaller right now, but that also rests upon K/K's placement in dance. Italy, and China will probably qualify 3 disciplines next month though it's not out of the realm of possibility one or both could also qualify all 4 disciplines but ladies are a real weakness for both. And the Czech Republic might, now that I'm thinking about it, qualify in at least 3 disciplines.

After those 7 nations, I'm hard pressed to think of any other countries that have enough depth to qualify in more than 2 disciplines and it feels like the ones with competitive pairs (Great Britain, Austria, Germany, Israel) are appreciably weaker in at least 2 (GBR has a solid dance team, Germany and Israel have solid men). I suppose BLR might sneak in since they've imported Russians in most disciplines but especially pairs and dance.

On the other hand, it's hard assess which countries even have likely qualifiers across all of the disciplines given the lack of competitions this season.
 

tony

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Russia, USA, Canada, Italy, China, Japan, Germany almost for sure. France can probably do it outright as well.

Georgia would likely have an excellent shot, even over some of the above teams. Maybe South Korea has a pairs team that will be ready early next season? They would maybe qualify just with the 3 other scores while a team competes early next year and fills out the roster.

If not, I guess it's a race between any of AUS, AUT, CZE, HUN, ISR, ESP, SUI - some of which would likely need a pair or dance team to show up by next season.

There definitely should be 10 teams qualified, even if having to use a wildcard spot (remember Olympic TES is lower than Worlds, so it's not unachievable). That hasn't changed, right?
 

Colonel Green

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France can probably do it outright as well.
France may end up in a very awkward place here because P/C not going to Worlds raises the prospect of there being only one French dance team qualified for the Olympics. And while I already thought P/C would probably skip the team event, there'd be even more of an issue if they were the only dance team available and their participation might allow France to squeak into the second round, meaning they couldn't just do the RD and let somebody else do the free.
 

kwanfan1818

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With the overall shrinking of the pairs field this quad, it's unclear to me if there's even going to be more than ten countries with all the necessary entrants.
If the rules don't change, teams need to qualify three disciplines only. For the last discipline for which they didn't qualify a spot, they can send a singles skater or team to complete their Team Event team.

Also, with the shrinking Pairs field after they expanded the number of qualifiers for the FS from 16-20, that means more teams have the potential to qualify for the Olympics at Worlds. At 2019 Worlds, there were only 19 Pairs, and all made the FS. If the current rules had been based on 2019 results, Italy (2nd Pair, 19th place) would have been able to qualify a second Pair without the Olympic qualifier, and GER would have qualified two spots (13+14). GBR and CZE (17th, 18th) still would have had to compete with CHN (for a 3rd spot], FRA (for a 2nd spot), and USA (2nd spot) at the qualifier, having placed short of the cut-off at 16th place (CRO).

Under the old rules, though, the cut-off would have been 10th place, not 16th. (CHN-3, RUS-3, FRA-2, CAN-2, ITA-2, USA-2, AUT-2), and PRK, GER, ESP, and CRO would have had to qualify for one spot at Nebelhorn.

Miura/Kihara's PB from 2019 is substantially higher than the teams from CRO and ESP, and much closer to the top teams from AUT and PRK, 10th and 11th in 2019.

The Team Event also includes qualifiers from Nebelhorn, so I'd expect JPN and ITA to qualify for three (at minimum) and also GER.
 

Karen-W

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Russia, USA, Canada, Italy, China, Japan, Germany almost for sure. France can probably do it outright as well.

Georgia would likely have an excellent shot, even over some of the above teams. Maybe South Korea has a pairs team that will be ready early next season? They would maybe qualify just with the 3 other scores while a team competes early next year and fills out the roster.

If not, I guess it's a race between any of AUS, AUT, CZE, HUN, ISR, ESP, SUI - some of which would likely need a pair or dance team to show up by next season.

There definitely should be 10 teams qualified, even if having to use a wildcard spot (remember Olympic TES is lower than Worlds, so it's not unachievable). That hasn't changed, right?
I don't see how Germany can qualify for sure, same with France, given their obvious weaknesses in at least 2 disciplines (ladies & dance for GER, ladies & pairs for FRA). I'd forgotten about Georgia - is their up and coming dance team back in competitive shape? South Korea - haven't heard anything about any fledgling pairs teams and we haven't seen Min/Eaton all season (were they on the initial SkAM invitiation list?).

AUS - need a pairs team; AUT - need competitive singles AND a dance team; CZE - solid men, have new pairs and dance teams, inconsistent ladies; HUN - need competitive singles, possibly can qualify their pairs & dance teams through Worlds; ISR - need a decent lady and we'll see if their dance team can qualify at Worlds; ESP - need competitive singles; SUI - their pairs team hasn't qualified for Worlds yet, really only solid in ladies.

Here are the countries that had submitted entries in at least 3 disciplines at Worlds last year:
Armenia, Australia, Austria*, Bulgaria, Canada*, China*, Czech Republic*, Finland (Galay w/d a few days before it was cancelled), France, Georgia, Germany*, Great Britain*, Hungary*, Israel*, Italy*, Japan*, Latvia, Russia*, South Korea, Switzerland, United States*

Going into this year, here are the additional countries that should have entries in at least 3 disciplines for Worlds:
Belarus*, Netherlands*
Poland, Spain, Sweden and Turkey might qualify in 3 disciplines but their 2/3 disciplines are missing TES right now.

* = one of those disciplines is pairs
** = has a qualified pairs team now

I'd give a strong advantage to the 16 countries that have at entries in at least 3 disciplines of which 1 is pairs, plus South Korea on the strength of their singles competitors, as being the ones that qualify for the Team Event. Australia, Bulgaria, Finland, Georgia, Latvia and Switzerland all have at least one discipline that has a solid top 10 contender so they could be in the mix but without a pairs team, it's going to be tough to get past the 16-17 countries that do have a pairs team or are appreciably stronger in at least 2 disciplines.
 

Karen-W

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Here are the countries that had submitted entries in at least 3 disciplines at Worlds last year:
Armenia, Australia, Austria*, Bulgaria, Canada*, China*, Czech Republic*, Finland (Galay w/d a few days before it was cancelled), France, Georgia, Germany*, Great Britain*, Hungary*, Israel*, Italy*, Japan*, Latvia, Russia*, South Korea, Switzerland, United States*

Going into this year, here are the additional countries that should have entries in at least 3 disciplines for Worlds:
Belarus*, Netherlands*
Poland, Spain, Sweden and Turkey might qualify in 3 disciplines but their 2/3 disciplines are missing TES right now.

* = one of those disciplines is pairs
** = has a qualified pairs team now

I'd give a strong advantage to the 16 countries that have at entries in at least 3 disciplines of which 1 is pairs, plus South Korea on the strength of their singles competitors, as being the ones that qualify for the Team Event. Australia, Bulgaria, Finland, Georgia, Latvia and Switzerland all have at least one discipline that has a solid top 10 contender so they could be in the mix but without a pairs team, it's going to be tough to get past the 16-17 countries that do have a pairs team or are appreciably stronger in at least 2 disciplines.
I can't edit this again - so Czech Republic is the country with a newly qualified/eligible pairs team that had 3 disciplines last year, and France has pairs teams.
 

tony

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I don't see how Germany can qualify for sure, same with France, given their obvious weaknesses in at least 2 disciplines (ladies & dance for GER, ladies & pairs for FRA). I'd forgotten about Georgia - is their up and coming dance team back in competitive shape?
Meite and Schott may not be top 10 skaters, but both would certainly have a very decent shot of qualifying an Olympic spot outright at Worlds- moreso than the majority of the ‘maybe’ countries on the list. Surprising that you question Schott but not unpredictable Fentz ;) Although for Nicole it comes down to her health, I suppose.

You get 3 of the 4 disciplines at a minimum with qualifying spots, then Germany and France will certainly be in.
 

hanca

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With the overall shrinking of the pairs field this quad, it's unclear to me if there's even going to be more than ten countries with all the necessary entrants.
There probably will be more then 10 countries with pairs, because skaters are changing citizenships to skate for another country. At the Europeans last year there were pairs from 13 countries, add to it countries outside Europe (USA, Canada, China, Japan). There are also some European countries that have pairs but they haven’t had their transfer sorted out yet or they haven’t met the qualifying scores and therefore did not compete at the Europeans last year, e.g. Belarus and Georgia have a pair (imported from Russia) but it wasn’t sorted last year yet. Czech Republic also has a pair, not sure if they will be good enough to compete. If Windsor has a new partner, Australia would be another country having a pair. If I add all those, it can be just over 20 countries having pairs. Whether they have their citizenship sorted out to be able to go to olympic and whether they are good enough to reach the qualifying score, I don’t know.
 

kwanfan1818

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About more countries qualifying, the same impacts of the new rules we see in Pairs -- aside from expanding the FS from 16-20 -- shoudl allow more countries to qualify singles and dance teams from Worlds.

For example, if the new rules were applied to 2019 Worlds, only 19 Men's spots would have been awarded at Nebelhorn. Three countries -- CHN, ITA, CZE -- would have had to try to get a second spot at Nebelhorn. Three more countries would have qualified for one spot at Worlds (LAT, ISR, MAS) instead of having to qualify for one of 11 spots at Nebelhorn (to get to 30). CHN and ITA would almost certainly have gained back the second spot, but CZE would have had to compete with other countries.

In Ladies all 24 spots would have been alloted through Worlds, but two countries would have qualified automatically, without having to compete for 6 spots at Nebelhorn. KAZ and KOR would have to qualify for the second at Nebelhorn. KOR should have an excellent shot, but KAZ, not so much.

In Dance, ITA would have had to qualify a second spot at Nebelhorn, one of 5 open spots. HUN would have made the Worlds cut-off. A wash at Nebelhorn?

Net/net, that likely would mean one extra country in each singles discipline. As much as we :drama: about GER skaters in Team Trainwreck threads, Germany would have qualified a team even without a German man needing to be in the top 11 (of those trying to qualify spots) at Nebelhorn.

I think we're still back where Russia, US, Canada, Japan, China, France, Italy, and Germany qualify in at least three disciplines, maybe even without Nebelhorn, where KOR and maybe some countries with new teams/new seniors/people getting citizenship sorted can compete for the last spots. The skaters/teams who qualify spots at Nebelhorn don't have to be the ones that are eligible to compete at the Olympics. Too bad there can't be a Nordic team and a non-original EU member team.
 

Karen-W

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Now that we have finished Worlds - here are the first standings for the Olympic Team Event:

Top 6 look pretty secure. Italy does, though, need to qualify a woman at Nebelhorn - though if they don't, they'll surely use one of the "Additional Athlete" quotas for the Team Event.

Austria needs to qualify a man and a dance team - questionable. Zandron was pretty far down in the SP here at Worlds; their dance teams are all junior and far off the TES mins.

Korea still needs to qualify a pairs or dance team - questionable. They don't have a pairs team. Min/Eaton should be able to qualify in dance - they finished well ahead of Japan's Komatsubara/Koleto at 2020 4CCs.

France needs a lady or pairs team to qualify - probably questionable for both.

Great Britain both need a lady or pairs team to qualify - probably questionable for both unless Jones/Boyadji can get back on the ice with some solid training time that isn't interrupted by lockdowns.

Belgium has no men, pairs or dance teams listed in the TES minimum lists for either senior or junior - so they're not qualifying.

Germany needs a man - and that is doable as there are 7 spots up for grabs at Nebelhorn (5 countries are competing for additional spots). Fentz finished 26th (Zhou was 25th) in the SP here.

Czech Republic needs a dance team to qualify - their dance team finished 21st in the RD.

Georgia needs both a pairs and dance team to qualify - also doable. Their pairs team finished just behind the Czech team who were the last to qualify through Worlds and Kazakova/Reviya should easily nab one of the 4 dance spots available at Nebelhorn.

In conclusion - top 6 are solid; Korea, France, Great Britain, Germany, Czech Republic & Georgia are in the hunt for the final 4 spots.

Preliminary Team Event Qualification

RankCountryLadiesMenPairsIce DanceTotal
1Russia1200787120012004387
2United States875120063810803793
3Canada3397097099722729
4Japan70910804651802434
5China14633910803391901
6Italy04185747091701
7Austria57404180992
8Korea46546500930
9France0517162247926
10Great Britain1180106638862
11Belgium787000787
12Germany2000339200739
13Czech Republic131180275131717
14Georgia1623052470714
15Estonia30524700552
16Hungary00305118423
17Belarus02222000422
18Spain000418418
19Sweden27511800393
20Netherlands24701310378
21Azerbaijan377000377
22Poland000377377
23Ukraine01460162308
24Israel01061800286
25Lithuania000275275
26Switzerland027500275
27Finland10600146252
28Bulgaria222000222
29Latvia020000200
30Mexico016200162
31Croatia001460146
32Australia000106106

ETA - update Austria's chances due to information that Zandron DOES have Austrian citizenship already.
 
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Catherine M

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If Skate Canada can hold Keegan/Madeline/Piper & Paul/Kirsten & Mike together as a team, they have a shot at the podium, something I wasn't thinking could be possible. Its a LONG way to go to Beijing though but after this Worlds, that should be their core team.
 

Jammers

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If Skate Canada can hold Keegan/Madeline/Piper & Paul/Kirsten & Mike together as a team, they have a shot at the podium, something I wasn't thinking could be possible. Its a LONG way to go to Beijing though but after this Worlds, that should be their core team.
To be honest the other teams that might contend have big weaknesses like Japan and China so Canada won't have to be great to win a medal unless Japan finds a Ice Dance team. China looks to be done with no good lady and their men now struggling. Italy and France simply lack depth across all four disciplines.
 

Karen-W

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To be honest the other teams that might contend have big weaknesses like Japan and China so Canada won't have to be great to win a medal unless Japan finds a Ice Dance team. China looks to be done with no good lady and their men now struggling. Italy and France simply lack depth across all four disciplines.
Japan's singles > Canada's dance/pairs with regard to placements in the team event, IMO. I don't think Japan is entirely out of it but it's going to depend on the placements of the entrants in each discipline - Japan's pairs team is quite capable and could be within a point or two of Canada's pairs team.
 

kwanfan1818

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Germany needs a man - and that is doable as there are 7 spots up for grabs at Nebelhorn (5 countries are competing for additional spots). Fentz finished 26th (Zhou was 25th) in the SP here.
Am confused about Germany needing a Man since M/D, Schott, and H/K qualfied a spot in each of three discliplines under any interpretation of the new rules. Is there a reason they couldn't use the Additional Athlete's quota, like ITA, if an ITA Lady doesn't qualify at Nebelhorn? CZE is another story, since under the what-Wong-was-told interpretation, CZE has only qualified in Men, but if Wong's sources are wrong, then Z/B and Brezinova qualified spots in two more disciplines, and they should be able to use the quota if they can't qualify in Dance.
 

Karen-W

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Am confused about Germany needing a Man since M/D, Schott, and H/K qualfied a spot in each of three discliplines under any interpretation of the new rules. Is there a reason they couldn't use the Additional Athlete's quota, like ITA, if an ITA Lady doesn't qualify at Nebelhorn? CZE is another story, since under the what-Wong-was-told interpretation, CZE has only qualified in Men, but if Wong's sources are wrong, then Z/B and Brezinova qualified spots in two more disciplines, and they should be able to use the quota if they can't qualify in Dance.
Theoretically, yes, Germany could use the Additional Athlete quota to qualify a man for the Team Event only if they don't qualify one for the individual event. I tend to think most countries would prefer to qualify for the individual event rather than use the athlete quota.

I need to re-read the document but I think that Korea, France and Great Britain could also do the same but only have entries in 3 disciplines for the Team Event instead of all 4.
 

kwanfan1818

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I need to re-read the document but I think that Korea, France and Great Britain could also do the same but only have entries in 3 disciplines for the Team Event instead of all 4.
That would be a change from the last two: between Worlds and the Fall qualifier, teams needed to qualify individual competitors in at least three disciplines to be considered.

I think Men's is going to be the hardest to qualify, despite having seven spots (6+1 lost by CHN in Stockholm): USA, RUS, FRA, CAN, and KOR are going to try to qualify another competitor, and while deep head-casiness abounds in the first four among seniors*, at least everyone qualifies for the FS and can attempt a Trusova/Lipinski-type comeback.

*Am not sure about KOR Men.
 

hanca

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To be honest the other teams that might contend have big weaknesses like Japan and China so Canada won't have to be great to win a medal unless Japan finds a Ice Dance team. China looks to be done with no good lady and their men now struggling. Italy and France simply lack depth across all four disciplines.
I wouldn’t underestimate Japan. They have strong ladies and men. Their pair has significantly improved in comparison with the past years, moving from 17th, 19th and 24th places at worlds (with different partners) to being 10th at worlds in their second season together. That’s a huge improvement and I wouldn’t be surprised if by next year there was another huge improvements of skills. Skaters don’t often improve so fast. Their ice dance is weak (19th this year), but it is not as if Canada doesn’t have weakness. Their ladies are not particularly strong and Japan will make up a lot of ground by having really strong ladies and men.
 

Karen-W

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That would be a change from the last two: between Worlds and the Fall qualifier, teams needed to qualify individual competitors in at least three disciplines to be considered.

I think Men's is going to be the hardest to qualify, despite having seven spots (6+1 lost by CHN in Stockholm): USA, RUS, FRA, CAN, and KOR are going to try to qualify another competitor, and while deep head-casiness abounds in the first four among seniors*, at least everyone qualifies for the FS and can attempt a Trusova/Lipinski-type comeback.

*Am not sure about KOR Men.
Right. I think the USA and CAN have the best chance at confirming their additional spot, followed by RUS and FRA. Apparently KOR has a younger guy who is talented.

As far as the qualification goes - this is what the document actually says:

D.3.2 Each Team must participate in at least three (3) disciplines (Women Single Skating/Men Single Skating/Pair Skating/Ice Dance) of the Team Event.

D.3.3 The ten (10) NOCs will qualify to enter their Teams based on the qualifying points scoring scale as outlined in Annex A scored by its best one (1) skater in Women Single Skating, best one (1) skater in Men Single Skating, best Pair Skating couple and best Ice Dance couple primarily at the:
• ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021 (season 2020/2021) and the
• ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating events and Final season 2021/2022
Plus, if necessary, the following events:
• ISU European Figure Skating Championships/ISU Four Continents Figure Skating Championships 2021 (season 2020/2021)
• ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2021 (season 2020/2021)
• ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating season 2021/2022 (only in individual events but not the Final)

D.3.4 The ten (10) Teams having accumulated the highest number of qualifying points by the above-mentioned number and discipline of skaters/couples in the above-mentioned ISU Events and the criteria outlined below will qualify.

Further down, in the Additional Athletes quota section:

D.4 Additional Athletes Quota The Additional Athletes Quota of up to five (5) skaters will be used as a priority for the Host Country quotas allocation if needed.

In addition, NOCs who do not have qualified skaters/couples in an individual OWG competition/discipline (Women Single Skating, Men Single Skating, Pair Skating, Ice Dance) may benefit of any remaining Additional Athlete Quota (after Host Country places are allocated) and enter into the Team Event with one (1) skater/couple. Preference is given to the best-ranked “incomplete Teams” according to the ranking of the Figure Skating Team qualification list.

If applicable, each NOC may benefit of this Additional Athletes Quota for only one discipline of the Team Event.

The Additional Athletes Quota beyond the above-mentioned five (5) skaters cannot be exceeded and if not sufficient for the “incomplete Teams”, the lower ranked “incomplete Teams” according to the ranking of the Figure Skating Team qualification list, may in such case not be able to complete their Team.

So, it seems to me that Incomplete Teams get the chance to "complete" their teams, but even if they can't "complete" their team, they get selected ahead of "complete" teams if they have more points.
 

kwanfan1818

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But an "incomplete" team is one that qualifies in at least three ("the above-mentioned number") disciplines in individual events.

The incomplete (ie, three of four) rankings being higher protects countries like JPN, which, through the strength of their singles amass buckets of points for the rankings, from being bumped by a country that qualifies for all four disciplines, but not with strength.
 

skatingguy

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Using the results of this World Championships & the 8 teams that would make the Olympic Team Event (RUS,USA,JPN,CAN,CHN,ITA,GER,CZE) if this was the only qualifier I ran a little mock competition. No surprise that the Russians are first by some ways, with the US 2nd, and Japan & Canada are 3rd & 4th & separated by one point.

1. Russia
2. United States
3. Japan
4. Canada
5. China
6. Italy
7. Germany
8. Czech Republic
 

Karen-W

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Using the results of this World Championships & the 8 teams that would make the Olympic Team Event (RUS,USA,JPN,CAN,CHN,ITA,GER,CZE) if this was the only qualifier I ran a little mock competition. No surprise that the Russians are first by some ways, with the US 2nd, and Japan & Canada are 3rd & 4th & separated by one point.

1. Russia
2. United States
3. Japan
4. Canada
5. China
6. Italy
7. Germany
8. Czech Republic
But there are 10 teams that make the Team Event... Theoretically KOR, FRA, and GBR would be able to add a skater/team to compete in a 3rd discipline and that would leave CZE out of the event - unless FRA declines (which I would expect them to do if they don't qualify in at least 3 disciplines come Nebelhorn).
 

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