Presidential Politics 2024

caseyedwards

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Voting starts January 2024 and everyone will be running by mid 2023! Exploratory committees will be started as early as December of this year
 

UMBS Go Blue

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Re: Newsom, I'm happy to see him "fill in the void" and punch back:

Re: 2024, if the choice were Biden vs. DeSantis, then, at current trends, that may be a landslide for the latter. :blocjudge :scream::scream::scream:
 
D

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As soon as the mid-terms are over, the Dems need to start pushing Biden to stand down from re-election and exit with dignity. If he doesn’t announce his intention to do this by spring 2023, then it’s time for the party leaders to speak up in favor of a contested primary. I like Newson even less than I like Biden, but neither he nor any Democrat should be content letting Biden run out of loyalty when (at this point) it looks like a sure loss. The Dems will do better to acknowledge that his presidency has been somewhere between a disappointment and a disaster, and to distance themselves from it.

Biden wasn’t Trump, and he got elected when the Dems and the country needed stability. The situation is different now, and the country needs a different leader and a different Democratic nominee.
 

caseyedwards

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NYT CNN and I guess all media reporting on NYT is being so aggressive with the “democrats want Biden to announce a successor and designee for 2024” stuff today. That even has a poll saying democrats don’t want Biden anymore.

 

clairecloutier

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Gavin Newsome just announced this. One of my friends who was a key player in Chris Murphy's 2018 senatorial campaign and CT-based liaison thereafter just tweeted, "He's running!"


So Chris Murphy is (unofficially) running?? I really admire his work on gun control, and he seems like a pretty sensible guy, so far anyway.

Until recently, I didn’t really want to even think about Biden not running again. But, he has kind of lost me lately with his declared opposition to expanding the SC. Knowing the damage they did this term and the state legislature case coming up next term, I don’t see how we keep our democracy unless the court is expanded. I’m also not thrilled with the administration’s slow, half-hearted response to Dobbs. They knew this was coming; why were they not prepared??

I still 100% will vote for Biden again if he’s the nominee. But, I don’t know if it’s destined to be.
 

BittyBug

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So Chris Murphy is (unofficially) running??
I think @sk9tingfan meant that Gavin Newsom is running.
Until recently, I didn’t really want to even think about Biden not running again. But, he has kind of lost me lately with his declared opposition to expanding the SC. Knowing the damage they did this term and the state legislature case coming up next term, I don’t see how we keep our democracy unless the court is expanded.
Biden doesn't have the votes to expand the court even if he wanted to do so.
 

sk9tingfan

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So Chris Murphy is (unofficially) running?? I really admire his work on gun control, and he seems like a pretty sensible guy, so far anyway.

Until recently, I didn’t really want to even think about Biden not running again. But, he has kind of lost me lately with his declared opposition to expanding the SC. Knowing the damage they did this term and the state legislature case coming up next term, I don’t see how we keep our democracy unless the court is expanded. I’m also not thrilled with the administration’s slow, half-hearted response to Dobbs. They knew this was coming; why were they not prepared??

I still 100% will vote for Biden again if he’s the nominee. But, I don’t know if it’s destined to be.
During the 2018 midterm campaign, Chris Murphy had a dominant vote projection and therefore elected to create an overarching effort called Fight Back Connecticut. Its mission was to re-establish Blue majorities in the CT house, senate, all state level executive positions and governorship. All were achieved with super-majorities in the house and senate, and Murphy won with almost 60% of the vote.

I worked on the campaign which was highly organized and impressive from a staffing perspective. They were smart, organized and efficient. So, Murphy knows how to pick them which a good part of the battle. It will be interesting to see if he throws his hat into the presidential arena.

Every year he walks a considerable distance (15020 miles) across CT to meet with citizens across the political spectrum.

 

clairecloutier

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Biden doesn't have the votes to expand the court even if he wanted to do so.


I understand that. But he could potentially have the votes to expand the court if things actually go well in the midterms and Dems hold on to Congress. Yet he preemptively states that he won't expand the court. I would have been fine if he had said: "This is not a realistic consideration at this time, but something I would consider in the future." But he didn't say that. His ingrained bias toward believing that our governmental institutions can still yield good results even when rightist extremists have essentially taken over parts of the gov't or have a large share in it is a problem, IMO.
 
D

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Expanding the Supreme Court and/or removing justices would be a short-term win at best. As soon as the GOP is back in power (which is likely to be very soon), they'll expand it even more, or remove all of the Democratic justices, or do something even worse. And they'll probably force through a rule that will prevent Democrats from ever being in charge of the court again. Court packing is a slippery slope, and I'm wary of a solving an anti-democratic process with an even less democratic process.

The country needs to have an honest, bipartisan discussion on the Supreme Court. Can it truly be apolitical? If no, some type of a proportional system combined with term limits would seem to be the best solution.
 

clairecloutier

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My long-term preference for the SC is also a combination of term limits, rotating justices, scheduled appointments, and expansion of the court. I've been posting about this for some time now. This web site, which I've linked to before, has some good ideas: https://fixthecourt.com/.

In the short term, though, I support court expansion as a temporary fix, until rational politics can hopefully return to this country at some point. I simply do not see any other immediate hope of staving off a democracy-ending decision in the state legislature case.

It just annoys me that Biden wants to cut off this discussion before it even begins. Again, with no apparent sense of the high stakes involved.
 

BittyBug

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In the short term, though, I support court expansion as a temporary fix, until rational politics can hopefully return to this country at some point. I simply do not see any other immediate hope of staving off a democracy-ending decision in the state legislature case.
The independent state legislature case is going to be decided by the current court as there aren't the votes to pass any type of voting rights legislation, and in the unlikely event that the Dems hang onto Congress (Senate is a distinct possibility, but the House seems very unlikely at this point), the new Congress won't be able to act quickly enough.

It's a very grim prospect, but after corrupting our politics with Citizen United, gutting the VRA and now contemplating the ILT, I think our democracy as we know it is gone after 2024 at the latest.
 

clairecloutier

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The next term of the Court goes from Oct 2022-maybe June 2023.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/procedures.aspx

The next Congress, elected Nov 2022, will take office Jan 3 2023.


So yeah, objectively, considering how long it takes to pass legislation and confirm Justices, it would be very difficult for even a new and very proactive Democratic Congress to stop the expected democracy-ending decision in the state legislature case. :(

I guess the only hope then is that an expanded, reformed Court could later overhear cases that would overturn Dobbs and the state legislature case. ??? If that is the case, it just makes it all the more important that Biden support court expansion. If a Dem Congress were to pass it, I think he would sign it.
 

caseyedwards

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Some people making it a big deal that Murdoch opposes trump for 2024. In 2016 he supported Rubio Bush or Kasich.
 

Vash01

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My long-term preference for the SC is also a combination of term limits, rotating justices, scheduled appointments, and expansion of the court. I've been posting about this for some time now. This web site, which I've linked to before, has some good ideas: https://fixthecourt.com/.

In the short term, though, I support court expansion as a temporary fix, until rational politics can hopefully return to this country at some point. I simply do not see any other immediate hope of staving off a democracy-ending decision in the state legislature case.

It just annoys me that Biden wants to cut off this discussion before it even begins. Again, with no apparent sense of the high stakes involved.
What irritates me is that it is crystal clear that republicans will do anything to gain control of the SC (they already have) and reverse every progress the country has made. Biden still won't consider expanding the SC. For this alone, I don't want Biden to run in 2024. We are already on a slippery slope. Need to stop the slide.

ETA- Granted that we don't have the democratic majority right now. What if we gain it in the future? Why not use it?
 

caseyedwards

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The Republican 2024 presidential primary begins in 4 days and trump called Desantis Desanctimonious in prep for the primary during rally in Pennsylvania.

4 days away!
 

Karen-W

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The Republican 2024 presidential primary begins in 4 days and trump called Desantis Desanctimonious in prep for the primary during rally in Pennsylvania.

4 days away!
Apparently, the date is Nov 14th for Trump. I, for one, really hope that the GOP doesn't nominate him again.

And, of course he's calling DeSantis names. He's concerned he'll lose to Ron. Goodness knows, I'd vote for DeSantis over Trump in a heartbeat.
 
D

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I'm more interested to see what happens on the Democratic side if the Dems lose control of both the House and the Senate.

Newsom has already signalled he's running in 2024. Does Biden start to bow out gracefully? Does the party start to turn on Biden and break into factions? Who else is going to jump in the race?
 

caseyedwards

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Apparently, the date is Nov 14th for Trump. I, for one, really hope that the GOP doesn't nominate him again.

And, of course he's calling DeSantis names. He's concerned he'll lose to Ron. Goodness knows, I'd vote for DeSantis over Trump in a heartbeat.
The vulnerability of trump is obvious! I mean it was in 2020 too but never mind that. So much baggage!
 

Karen-W

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I'm more interested to see what happens on the Democratic side if the Dems lose control of both the House and the Senate.

Newsom has already signalled he's running in 2024. Does Biden start to bow out gracefully? Does the party start to turn on Biden and break into factions? Who else is going to jump in the race?
Newsom has also been sending signals recently that he won't run as long as Biden remains in the race, and, right now, it seems Biden is going to be as much of a stubborn, arrogant old geezer as Trump is on the subject. Come hell or high water, both of those guys' egos are going to get in the way of doing what is best for their country or their party.
 

caseyedwards

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Desantis - obvious pluses everyone knows them
Trump- his judges overturned roe vs wade ?
Kemp- like Desantis
 

MacMadame

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I'm more interested to see what happens on the Democratic side if the Dems lose control of both the House and the Senate.

Newsom has already signalled he's running in 2024. Does Biden start to bow out gracefully? Does the party start to turn on Biden and break into factions? Who else is going to jump in the race?
People have talked about Gavin Newsom running for Prez in 2024. I know he wants to be President someday. It's very clear from his political career. OTOH in last night's election, in my county, all the State-wide candidates won re-election by 75% or more but he only won by 67%. I think, if I were him, I'd be worried.
 
D

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People have talked about Gavin Newsom running for Prez in 2024. I know he wants to be President someday. It's very clear from his political career. OTOH in last night's election, in my county, all the State-wide candidates won re-election by 75% or more but he only won by 67%. I think, if I were him, I'd be worried.

For better or worse (you decide!), I think last night's results will quiet the calls for Biden to bow out and probably embolden him to run again, provided his physical and mental health allow him to do so.
 

Karen-W

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For better or worse (you decide!), I think last night's results will quiet the calls for Biden to bow out and probably embolden him to run again, provided his physical and mental health allow him to do so.
Agree. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Biden is just as much of a stubborn old man as Trump is, and there's no way he's going to bow out now unless he really can't do it physically/mentally. Plus, some of the likely challengers won't jump in the race now - there have already been hints that Newsom won't attempt to primary Biden, and I can't see Buttigieg trying either.

Oregon is fascinating to me. It seems like the shift from blue to light red is nearly complete in the Willamette Valley - the only counties solidly blue still are Benton (Corvallis/OSU) and Lane (Eugene/UO), but the rest, even Marion & Polk (Salem) seem to have permanently dumped the Democrats.
 

caseyedwards

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Any idea Biden wasn’t going to run again or be opposed was a long shot. Not even trump was opposed! Not even trump with all the powerful rich nevertrump
 

Karen-W

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wrong thread...

Biden was going to be told to stand down if this had been a red wave last night. Yes, I do think the Dems would have primaried him, same as they did with LBJ back in '68.
 

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