I would like a team of Karen, Gracie, and Ashley. But I don't think that's the team we're going to get.
If I had to guess right now, I'd say Karen has the best chance overall of making it. The 4th place at Worlds will weigh heavily on the selection committee's (collective) mind, I think. WTT was a setback, but 4th at Worlds is important. I think Karen will be on the team.
All the other girls have, in my mind, similar chances of making the team.
--Ashley: Should be on the team, but lost a lot of ground this past season, and her history at Oly-year Nationals is not reassuring, not at all.
--Gracie: What to say ....
--Mariah: Rather weak performances at the big events this year (4CCs, Worlds) will be remembered by the selection committee. I feel that her basic skating skills/technical ability are not as strong as most of the other top girls, although she does shine artistically.
--Mirai: It's hers for the taking, IMO. The door is open. At 4CCs, she gave the selection committee a reason to pick her next year. But she's GOT to back it up with strong performances next fall.
--Polina: I really admire Polina's competitive ability. But I just fear it's going to be difficult to come back after 18 months away.
I think the door is also open for a dark horse to enter, a la Polina in 2014.