Post Euros&4CC- GP Roster Predictions- 2020 season

[haribobo]

LADIES (roughly 36 skaters for 72 total spots)
RUS (9)- Kostornaia, Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Medvedeva, Sinitsyna, Vasilieva, Samodurova, Nugumanova/Tarakanova
USA (5)- Tennell, Bell, K Chen, Glenn, Andrews (host spot: Venetta/Gold/Hicks/Cui/Harrell)
JPN (7)- Kihira, Higuchi, Miyahara, Sakamoto, Yokoi, Yamashita, Araki (host spot: Honda/Nagai)
KOR (4)- Young, Yelim, Eunsoo, Hanul
CAN (1.5)- (host spots: Bausback/Schumacher/Pineault/Schizas/Daleman/Mallet)
FRA (1.5)- (host spots: Meite, Serna, maybe Mazzara if not JGP)
CHN (1.5)- (host spots: Hongyi, Yi Zhu, Ashley Lin?)
Other (8)- Paganini, Kurakova, Safonova, Ryabova, Schott, Peltonen, Kiibus, Saarinen

MEN (roughly 36 skaters for 72 total spots)
RUS (7)- Samarin, Aliev, Danielian, Ignatov, Mozalev, Gumennik, Voronov
USA (6)- Chen, Zhou, Brown, Hiwatashi, Pulkinen, Krasnozhon (host spot: Torgashev/Naumov)
JPN (6)- Kagiyama, Hanyu, Uno, Tanaka, Tomono, Yamamoto
CAN (4)- Messing, Nguyen, Sadovsky, Nadeau (host spot: Phan/Orzel/Gogolev)
FRA (1)- Aymoz (host spots: Fa/Ponsart)
CHN (2) - Boyang Jin, Yan Han
Other (9)- Cha, Kvitelashvili, Vasiljevs, Grassl, Rizzo, Fentz, Shmuratko, Selevko, Brezina

PAIRS (roughly 24 teams for 48 spots)
RUS (7)- Boikova, Tarasova, Panfilova, Pavliuchenko, Mishina, Efimova, Pepeleva
USA (6)- Kayne, Cain, Knierim, Calalang, Denney, Lu (host spot: Finster/Serafini)
JPN (1)- Miura
CAN (4) - MTM, Lubov, Walsh, Brasseur
CHN (3)- Peng, Sui, Tang
Other (3)- DMG, Ziegler, Hase

DANCE (roughly 30 teams for 60 spots)
RUS (8) - Sinitsina, Stepanova, Zagorski, Morozov, Konkina, Shevchenko, Popova, Shpilevaya
USA (7)- Chock, Hubbell, Hawayek, Carreira, Green, McNamara, Nguyen
CAN (4)- Gilles, Soucisse, Lajoie, Fournier-Beaudry
ITA (1) - Guignard
FRA (2)- Papadakis, Lauriault
SPN (2)- Smart, Hurtado
Other (6)- Fear, Wang, Kaliszek, Reed, Nazarova, Kazakova

 

[Colonel Green]

DANCE (roughly 30 teams for 60 spots)
RUS (8) - Sinitsina, Stepanova, Zagorski, Morozov, Konkina, Shevchenko, Popova, Shpilevaya
USA (7)- Chock, Hubbell, Hawayek, Carreira, Green, McNamara, Nguyen
CAN (4)- Gilles, Soucisse, Lajoie, Fournier-Beaudry
ITA (1) - Guignard
FRA (2)- Papadakis, Lauriault
SPN (2)- Smart, Hurtado
Other (6)- Fear, Wang, Kaliszek, Reed, Nazarova, Kazakova

This doesn't seem to account for France's third host spot, all of Japan's (which we can assume they will use at least two of, for Komatsubata/Koleto and Muramoto/Takahashi), or the Chinese host spots.

 

[screech]

Only thing I can really predict is that all the Canadian national champions will be at Skate Canada. I predict they'll also have Stephen Gogolev, Gabby Daleman, Lubov/Charlie and the Danadians. I'm guessing most of the Canadian-based 'big name' internationals will be there too (Hanyu, Med, and one of Zhou or Brown)

 

[Debbie S]

Thanks for compiling, haribobo!

I suspect both Harrell and Naumov will return to the JGP next season. And I think Nguyen/Kolesnik will stay Junior, unless they win JW.

 

[Karen-W]

Why are we thinking that Gogolev will move up to the GP next season instead of taking another turn on the JGP?

 

[Colonel Green]

Why are we thinking that Gogolev will move up to the GP next season instead of taking another turn on the JGP?

That’s what reporting has indicated he plans to do.

He’s already won the JGP Final anyway.

 

[barbk]

He needs to move up next year to get some pre-Olympic year senior experience.

 

[screech]

And Canada needs a senior man who, when healthy, can technically compete with skaters from other countries.

 

[happycamper2554]

Thanks for compiling, haribobo!

I suspect both Harrell and Naumov will return to the JGP next season. And I think Nguyen/Kolesnik will stay Junior, unless they win JW.

Edited because late bday

 

[DreamSkates]

Kolyada? What's up with him?

 

[Jeschke]

Panfilova staying junior.
Konstantinova

 

[Ka3sha]

Efimova/Korovin split

 

[Ka3sha]

Kolyada? What's up with him?

He’s back on the ice, recovering after surgery seems to be going ok. He has posted a video of him landing a 3toe on twitter recently

Mikhail_Kolyada on Twitter

“https://t.co/TTwSp4f7FL”

twitter.com

 

[hanca]

Just wondering, why would Pepeleva/Pleshkov be getting a GP spot? They placed well at the senior nationals, so they will be getting finding as a senior team, but that has nothing to do with getting a GP. Are they high enough on the season best to get a spot? Or is their world ranking that high? They may be considered for the home spot, but so will be other teams, such Kostiukovich/Ialin, Sobinina/Volodin and Balabanova/Sviatchenko, who also will move to seniors. Then there is Kudriavtseva/Spiridonov, who won’t be that bas as soon as Lina starts landing throw jumps consistently.

 

[haribobo]

Updating post Jr Worlds-

LADIES (roughly 36 skaters for 72 total spots)
RUS (9)- Kostornaia, Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Medvedeva, Sinitsyna, (then some combo of Vasilieva-sb23 &105ws, Gulyakova- no sb & 54ws & 7th Nats, Tarakanova-sb25 &75ws, Samodurova- sb35 & 13ws & 9th Nats)
USA (5)- Tennell, Bell, K Chen, Glenn, Andrews (host spot: Venetta/Gold/Hicks/Cui/Harrell)
JPN (7)- Kihira, Higuchi, Miyahara, Sakamoto, Yokoi, Yamashita, Araki (host spot: Honda/Nagai)
KOR (4)- Young, Yelim, Eunsoo, Hanul
CAN (1.5)- (host spots: Bausback sb59/Schumacher sb57/Pineault sb58/Schizas no sb/Daleman sb74)
FRA (1.5)- (host spots: Meite, Serna, maybe Mazzara if not JGP)
CHN (1.5)- (host spots: Hongyi, Yi Zhu, Ashley Lin?)
Other (4)- Paganini, Kurakova, Safonova, Ryabova (alt: Schott, Peltonen, Kiibus, Saarinen)

MEN (roughly 36 skaters for 72 total spots)
RUS (8)- Samarin, Aliev, Danielian, Ignatov, Mozalev, Gumennik, Voronov, Kolyada
USA (8)- Chen, Zhou, Brown, Hiwatashi, Pulkinen, Krasnozhon, Torgashev, Naumov
JPN (6)- Kagiyama, Hanyu, Uno, Tanaka, Tomono, Yamamoto
CAN (4)- Messing, Nguyen, Sadovsky, Nadeau (host spot: Phan/Orzel/Gogolev)
FRA (1)- Aymoz (host spots: Fa/Ponsart)
CHN (2) - Boyang Jin, Yan Han
Other (7)- Cha, Kvitelashvili, Vasiljevs, Grassl, Rizzo, Fentz, Brezina (alt: Kovalev, Selevko, Litvintsev, Kerry)

PAIRS (roughly 24 teams for 48 spots)
RUS (6)- Boikova, Tarasova, Pavliuchenko, Mishina, Pepeleva, Panfilova?
USA (7)- Kayne, Cain, Calalang, Denney, Lu, Finster, Serafini
JPN (1)- Miura
CAN (4) - MTM, Lubov, Walsh, Brasseur
CHN (3)- Peng, Sui, Tang
FRA (1)- Hamon (host: Keriven)
Other (4)- DMG, Ziegler, Hase, Hocke (alt: Ruest, Ghilardi, Barquero, Magyar)

DANCE (roughly 30 teams for 60 spots)
RUS (7) - Sinitsina, Stepanova, Zagorski, Morozov, Konkina, Shevchenko, Shpilevaya
USA (7)- Chock, Hubbell, Hawayek, Carreira, Green, McNamara, Nguyen
CAN (4)- Gilles, Soucisse, Lajoie, Fournier-Beaudry
ITA (1) - Guignard
FRA (2)- Papadakis, Lauriault (host: Galyavieva/Wagret)
SPN (2)- Smart, Hurtado
JPN (1)- Komatsubara (host spot: Yoshida)
CHN (1)- Wang (host spots: Chen, Ning)
Other (5)- Fear, Kaliszek, Reed, Nazarova, Kazakova (alt: Galyavieva, Steffan, Wagret, Muller, Lopareva, Orihara, Tessari)

 

[haribobo]

Regarding entries rules-

Singles- 12 entries per event, Pairs- 8, Dance 10

1st-6th place from Worlds are seeded and get 2 events each.

Comeback skaters (previously 1-6 at Worlds and skipped a season, will be given priority consideration for up to 2 events). Also split/returning couples with new partner can be chosen for up to 2 events by using points/SB score of previous partnership. Also a returning skater who was 7-12 at Worlds in 2018 or 2019 but missed 19-20 season can be ranked using their SB score of most recent season.

Placing at Worlds- 7-12 for singles and 7-10 for Pairs and Dance- guaranteed 2 events.

Skaters in top 24 of World standings and/or SB scores in top 24 are guaranteed 1 event.

Medalists from 2020 World Juniors and gold medalists from JGPF who are moving to senior will be "included in the selection process", whatever that means.

Max of 3 skaters per discipline per country. Each host country gets 3 spots per discpline.

Any open spots can be filled by top 75 SB scoring skaters .

Min score expected to be met (except for host spots) is 3/5 the highest score at Worlds.
Last season min score:
Men 194 (around 80 on SB list)
Ladies 142 (around 125 on SB list)
Pairs 140 (around 55 on SB list)
Dance 133 (around 100 on SB list)

So basically, anyone in top 75 SB list qualifies there, except pairs.

Alternate List- Host must replace all pairs until 14 days before event. Singles and dance- 14 days out and earlier- the first 2 dropouts are optional to be replaced, but any more than 2 entries dropping out must be replaced. If less than 14 days out, replacing is optional due to high cost.

From the document, regarding alternates-

"The alternate list needs to be worked through in ranking order for the top 75 ranked Skaters/Couples according
to their Season’s Best. All Skaters/Couples of the alternate list will be grouped in top ranked groups of ten (10)
Skaters, out of which the respective Organizing ISU Member may pick one Skater/Couple for invitation.
Skaters/Couples, who place first in any of the ISU Challenger Series events for 2020/21 and can prove to have
skated the minimum Technical score as mentioned in paragraph 2.3, will be added to the alternate list, bottom
ranked according to their scores."

 

[Vagabond]

I wonder what will happen to those rules if Worlds is cancelled. (And the same goes with respect to spots at next season's Worlds, though that could be a topic for a separate thread.)

 

[haribobo]

In that case, to me it would make the most sense to just use SB scores 1-6 for seeded skaters and kinda everything else that way.

For Worlds spots, eh, just let everyone send 3 next year if they can get the qualifying scores. How many more skaters would that really add? 15 per discipline?

ETA: I did the math, and by my calculations, allowing all countries to send up to 3 (if min TES reached), currently would allow 17 extra men, 18 extra ladies, 4 pairs, and 16 dance teams.

 

[Colonel Green]

Hypothetically, it’d make sense to just use the current Worlds spot allotment into next year.

 

[haribobo]

I am sure that's what they would do but I hate that. Poor Canadian men...

 

[Vagabond]

In that case, to me it would make the most sense to just use SB scores 1-6 for seeded skaters and kinda everything else that way.

This would give Russia five out of the six seeded skaters, assuming that Medvedeva competes next season. I am not sure how well that would fly with the Japanese, South Koreans, and Americans.

It would also give a seeded spot to someone who did not even qualify for the Free Skate at Europeans: Kévin Aymoz.

It would be easy enough to have the initial TES Minimums be three-fifths of the highest TES of the season for each segment in each discipline.