Post Brexit Thread (2)

Louis

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I am no fan of Brexit. It has made me poorer; has put my job at risk; has impacted my ability to leave the UK and later come back; and otherwise has been nothing but a huge headache. The entire referendum was a crazy idea. Some countries, e.g., Italy, have laws on holding referenda on international matters -- and for good reason.

To me, however, there are some valid reasons for people to have voted for Brexit -- e.g., supremacy of Parliament. And I think Margaret Thatcher was right when she stated that Britain never had or never would have quite the same relationship with European as continental countries. It is an island (plus part of another one) and was never occupied during wartime, which remove two of the biggest reasons the EU came about. While part of me thinks it's crazy to vote for leaving the EU with no plan, I'm also not quite sure anyone could have predicted just how inept the British government would be. A reasonable person might assume that the government could develop a plan in 2.5 years..... :shuffle:

I (obviously) think the UK is a great country, and usually a reasonable country. I think the population -- and even the House of Commons -- has a reasonable majority that wants to do the right thing, which is to forge a reasonable future relationship with the EU while delivering Brexit. I continue to hope that those forces prevail. The referendum happened. I wish it didn't, but it did. I agree with Theresa May and so many others that we can't ignore or reverse it without irreparably damaging public trust. I can only hope the various parties work together to make this a soft landing.

As for France, could they do what the UK has done and guarantee unilaterally that UK citizens can remain even in the event of no-deal? While I am not entirely trustful of the UK government, I give Theresa May and the government props for unilaterally guaranteeing -- in black and white, and in plain English -- my rights even in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd much prefer this to be formalized in a deal with the European Union, but I do have some reassurance even if it's not.
 

antmanb

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No, the CTA pre-dates the EU and will continue even after the UK leaves the EU. Ireland is not in the Schengen Area, so the EU should have no concerns over freedom of movement of people. UK and Irish citizens will still have absolute right to settle in the other's country, EU or not, confirmed in the UK government's position papers. This right goes even further than freedom of movement, as it's basically permanent residency from day one. Travelling between the two countries, there is no legal need to verify identity or check documents (as allezfred said, technically for citizens). Even at airports, on the British side, there are no document checks; on the Irish side, there (usually?) are, but a passport is (technically?) not required.
I'm still not following this. Even if the CTA does predate the EU, the fact that both countries joined the EU and now one will leave surely means the CTA can't continue as it has done because the EU has the right to police it's own borders? And if there really were no checks of citizens travelling between the two countries why are people talking about times before the good Friday agreement where people had to have their papers checked to cross from the republic of Ireland into Northern Ireland and vice versa?

Genuinely asking as my knowledge of this is pretty minimal.
 

taz'smum

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As for France, could they do what the UK has done and guarantee unilaterally that UK citizens can remain even in the event of no-deal? While I am not entirely trustful of the UK government, I give Theresa May and the government props for unilaterally guaranteeing -- in black and white, and in plain English -- my rights even in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd much prefer this to be formalized in a deal with the European Union, but I do have some reassurance even if it's not.

France has said in the event of no deal, it would do X, Y, Z provided the UK reciprocates!!
That is the problem.
 

Louis

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I'm still not following this. Even if the CTA does predate the EU, the fact that both countries joined the EU and now one will leave surely means the CTA can't continue as it has done because the EU has the right to police it's own borders? And if there really were no checks of citizens travelling between the two countries why are people talking about times before the good Friday agreement where people had to have their papers checked to cross from the republic of Ireland into Northern Ireland and vice versa?

Genuinely asking as my knowledge of this is pretty minimal.
Ireland -- like Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Cyprus (which is a bit more complicated) -- are EU countries that control their own borders. They have to follow certain EU rules re: EU/EEA/CH citizens and about goods, but they manage their own border and immigration policies.

Within the CTA, there could be checks on people the same way that, within the EU, you have to show a passport or ID card when travelling between Schengen and non-Schengen areas, but you aren't stamped and can't be denied entry except for very serious national security issues; however, there don't have to be.

"EU" checks would be done when entering or leaving the EU-managed Schengen area. Ireland has a permanent opt-out from Schengen, which means Ireland has significant flexibility to set its own rules provides it complies with the broad, EU non-Schengen regulations. (E.g., Ireland, like the UK, does no exit checks, which Schengen rules require.) Even post-Brexit, I don't see why this would need to change. Ireland, as a sovereign country not part of the Schengen area, can let in whomever it wants; can grant citizenship to whomever it wants (e.g., people born on the island of Ireland, even those in the future non-EU UK portion of the island); and otherwise has significant flexibility to be more liberal than Schengen rules allow. Unless I'm totally off-base here, there is no problem with people even in a no-deal Brexit, provided that both the UK and Ireland are willing to continue to turn a blind eye to the freedom of movement of non-EU, non-UK nationals within the CTA as they do today. (E.g., my Indian coworker working in Ireland drove from Letterkenney, Ireland to Belfast, UK to fly to Dublin, Ireland to get a visa to enter the United Kingdom :lol: for his trip to London.) The EU should have no concerns because all of those people would be checked when entering Schengen.

Goods, however, are a big problem because Ireland is a part of the single market and the customs union, and does have to follow those rules as well as WTO rules. And it's damn near impossible (or perhaps absolutely impossible) to comply with those rules without some kind of checks.

ETA: I should add that Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia are obligated to join the Schengen Area at some point. I suppose Cyprus is as well, though the "illegally occupied territory" of Northern Cyprus would have to be resolved first, so I don't see that happening anytime soon. Ireland's permanent opt-out is a pretty big one, as far as EU rules go.
 
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taz'smum

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It’s clear that May’s strategy is to run down the clock until the only choices left are her Withdrawal Deal or No Deal. Seems like an awful gamble to take....
The EU cannot and will not budge, so brinkmanship will not work!
So No deal it is! :scream::wall:

Nothing left to do but to break out the:watch:- 45 days until showtime!! ⚠️💣🎊🆘
 
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I was listening to Jame O'Brien this morning - he mentioned that it takes six weeks for products to reach Japan & Korea when leaving Great Britain by ship. This means that there are products that have been loaded on ships and those ships are now heading across the ocean, but no one knows under what circumstances they will be dealt with when they arrive because it will be past the Mar. 29 Brexit deadline.
 

taz'smum

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That's not what @allezfred said. The choice is between the current deal on the table and no deal. Nowhere did he say that May thinks she can negotiate a new deal.
Yes, I know Allezfred didn't say he thought May thinks she can negotiate a new deal, sorry if my post seemed contradictory! ;)

I was just adding my 5 eggs.

We do not know what is going on in May's head. We can only presume she thinks she cannot negotiate a new deal.

For all we know, she could be playing the ultimate Brinkmanship with the EU.
That is why IMO, she is refusing to take No Deal off the table, as she is probably still hoping the EU will blink at the last moment rather than face no deal. The EU does have a reputation of not sealing deals until the last possible moment.

Or, on 29th March, when her WA is not accepted and the EU doesn't 'blink', she might plan to withdraw Article 50 at the 11th hour.... (very unlikely, but just possible, as it would then make her the saviour of the UK.... )

Or her plan all along was to leave with No Deal!
Then in the ensuing chaos, bring in martial law, and then have a good excuse to pass whatever legislation she wants in the name of restoring order. Thus the Singapore model would be created with no opposition, the NHS sold off, the benefits system dismantled etc. This is what the extreme Brexiteers have already said they want ....

What is just so terrible, is that the fate of 65 million people is being controlled by just one person and all of the government and parliament seem powerless to stop her doing exactly what she likes!

This for me is not a democratic leader, this is a fascist leader!
 

antmanb

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The other thing I found interesting from my seminar last week was that people who actually work on the ground in, for example, financial institutions, both in the EU and in the UK are pissed off with the politicians because those in the EU wish to continue to work with the UK in a meaningful way and still think that because of the UK's status as a former (well still current for now) EU member there should be concessions made.

In the UK, in the financial sector, i'm told that the plans are all in place for a no deal , but if a deal is made they will revert to business as usual and unwind what has been put in place for a no deal.

The Pharmaceutical sector, however, have hung on as long as possible and are now past the point of no return s,o deal or no deal, operations will move to mainland Europe and the business will be lost to the UK.
 

Vagabond

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As reported on NPR's Morning Edition:

As Brexit Deadline Looms, Billboards Call Out Politicians' 'Quick And Easy' Claims
In the rush of digital news that washes over so many of us every day, it's hard to remember what a politician might have said or promised several weeks ago, let alone several years. Some activists in the United Kingdom have come up with an imaginative, seemingly old-fashioned solution to this modern-day problem.

They plan to put up at least 150 billboards across the U.K. quoting some of the promises and rosy predictions politicians made about Brexit in recent years so people can reconsider them amid the political chaos that has followed.
Photographs of some of the billboards can be seen at Led By Donkeys. Some of the quoted material could have come from the current President of the United States.

Dominic Raab's "I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this but... we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing." is still one of my favorites, but I think Jacob Rees-Mogg's "We could have two referendums. As it happens it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is complete." takes the cake.
 
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Louis

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It’s clear that May’s strategy is to run down the clock until the only choices left are her Withdrawal Deal or No Deal. Seems like an awful gamble to take....
Is there any alternative, though?

The EU is not going to give any concessions until the last minute because it knows Britain will just reject whatever deal they give and ask for more. It's annoying, but we need a fast forward button to 23:50 CET on 29th March.

The EU cannot and will not budge, so brinkmanship will not work!
The EU always budges at the last minute and will in this instance, too. The danger is that Parliament (mainly the ERG wing) backstabs May and votes down this deal.

Or, on 29th March, when her WA is not accepted and the EU doesn't 'blink', she might plan to withdraw Article 50 at the 11th hour.... (very unlikely, but just possible, as it would then make her the saviour of the UK.... )
This is what's needed to keep the ERG in line. If the EU forces a choice between a deal with a "technical" extension (absolutely needed, given the example of the good already en route to/from Asia); revoking Article 50; and no deal, I think a lot of people might swallow their reservations and vote for the deal if they feel Article 50 revocation has a chance of getting passed.

What is just so terrible, is that the fate of 65 million people is being controlled by just one person and all of the government and parliament seem powerless to stop her doing exactly what she likes!

This for me is not a democratic leader, this is a fascist leader!
As bad as May's strategy is, I honestly can't think of a better one given the lack of majority for anything. Her deal is not changing because there's no way to change it to make it any better given the makeup of Parliament She's walking a tightrope, and she has a cool head. She has done far, far, far better than I ever thought she would despite a couple of terrible mistakes like the snap election.

Parliament is as much to blame in this mess. I do hope the non-binding vote to leave with a deal means that Parliament will use its powers to legally prevent no deal if we get down to the wire with no solution.
 

taz'smum

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The EU is not going to give any concessions until the last minute because it knows Britain will just reject whatever deal they give and ask for more. It's annoying, but we need a fast forward button to 23:50 CET on 29th March.

The EU always budges at the last minute and will in this instance, too. The danger is that Parliament (mainly the ERG wing) backstabs May and votes down this deal.
People keep saying the EU budges at the last minute, but are unable to give actual examples of this happening!
I think in this instance there are no concessions the EU can give, its hands are tied by EU rules and the GFA
It has given the best deal that is possible given TM's red lines.


The problem in a nutshell is that the MPs cannot agree on any Brexit path, as every form of Brexit would leave the UK worse off than the current deal.
 
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Jot the Dot Dot

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I imagine this would fall under the subject of Brexit, as the members cite Corbyn's handling of the issue as one of the reasons for their decision: 7 Labour MPs quite the party to sit as Independents in protest over Corbyn's leadership. Perhaps they could form the People's Front of Labour (not to be confused with the People's Labour Front, or indeed the Labour People's Front. Dirty splitters! ). https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47278902
 

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