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Post Brexit Thread (2)

Discussion in 'Politically Incorrect' started by SHARPIE, Jun 28, 2016.

  1. antmanb

    antmanb Well-Known Member

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    I'm just not following your logic at all. And Nigel Farage isn't the head of UKIP any more (which isn't to say that he wouldn't come back if any attempts to stop Brexit happened), but UKIP had the best general election ever and had the most traction they had just prior to the Brexit vote - arguably their absolute peak and I believe they had one seat in the commons, with maybe around 12% of the overall vote.

    The very two party system you are talking about pretty much guarantees that a fringe party like UKIP never gets much power. One vote in the commons when they had over 10% of the overall vote. Any form of proportional representation or other system would have handed them a lot more power than they got.

    They would never manage to get to 30% of an overall vote - for information the Labour party managed to get 30% of the vote in 2015 that is how many more votes UKIP would need. In the last general election UKIP didn't even get 2% of the overall vote so I just don't see them reaching anywhere near 30% ever.
     
  2. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    Late neon! :swoon:

    I lurves me some AutoCorrect. :2faced:
     
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  3. Louis

    Louis Well-Known Member

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    Seems like nothing concrete came out of the latest Brexit talks; no big surprise :yawn:.

    The EU's position paper was interesting in that it seems to be suggesting that Northern Ireland should stay within the Customs Union, even if the UK leaves it, and that there would need to be some type of border controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland to keep an open Irish border.

    It's not the craziest idea in the world. Even in the US, there are some formal checkpoints between states, mostly due to agricultural reasons (e.g., Oregon to California; Hawaii), and there are often police positioned on the border of no or low tax states (e.g., Delaware to Pennsylvania) looking for people trying to sneak liquor across state lines without paying tax.

    The UK has been adamant that all four countries would "Brexit" together, but I just don't see how (1) Northern Ireland outside of the customs union and (2) open border with the European Union is at all possible.
     
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  4. antmanb

    antmanb Well-Known Member

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    The EU seems to pretty much be asking May what she plans to do with the enormous open border with the EU, and so far crickets....they just don't have a clue. The fact that this whole mess could be triggered without even the most basic of plans for big glaring issues like the border between NI and Ireland is beyond words. The fact that it's been 15 months since the vote and they still don't have a clue what to do with such a major thing is downright negligent.
     
  5. allezfred

    allezfred That Irish Guy Staff Member

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    That's because it isn't.
     
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  6. Asli

    Asli Well-Known Member

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    Do you know what the majority in Northern Ireland would prefer, allezfred? An open border with the Republic of Ireland and border checks with Great Britain, or an open border with GB and border checks with Ireland?
     
  7. allezfred

    allezfred That Irish Guy Staff Member

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    Neither. :lol:
     
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  8. Asli

    Asli Well-Known Member

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    :lol: Naturally. But which would they prefer among the two?
     
  9. allezfred

    allezfred That Irish Guy Staff Member

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    Depends which side of the community. In terms of demographics, it is almost 50-50. Priority for Republicans is no border between Republic and Northern Ireland. But Unionists will not countenance any border checks between the North and the rest of the United Kingdom. That is their red line.
     
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  10. Lorac

    Lorac Well-Known Member

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  11. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it's legally possible for there to be a "no deal" Brexit. Various agreements between Ireland and the U.K. contemplate an open border in the context of both countries' membership in the E.U. There cannot be a Brexit without a resolution of the border question, and, if Ireland asked the International Court of Justice to review an attempt to circumvent these agreements, the Court would almost certainly take up the matter. No amount of wishful thinking on the part of Theresa May & Co. is going to make the border issue go away.
     
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  12. Louis

    Louis Well-Known Member

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    So the UK's position paper has clearly stated there will be no customs checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, so there goes my earlier idea.... What I can't understand, though, is how the UK is going to prevent all of the "dreaded" Polish and Romanians from coming to Great Britain from Northern Ireland. They can go to the Republic of Ireland freely, walk over the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland and then get on a plane or boat to Great Britain.... what on earth is going to stop this, and why is the UK government not concerned about it?

    Meanwhile, all signs are pointing to not enough progress in the latest talks to begin talking about a trade deal.

    Honestly, at this point, I think the UK and the EU will have to start thoroughly preparing for a "no deal" Brexit. There is so much business risk here. I think it may be better to give businesses the certainty that there's no deal, that World Trade Organisation rules will apply, and the next year will be spent working out the customs processes, worker arrangements, etc. Business planning is becoming next to impossible. We're less than 18 months away from Brexit Day.... and even if a deal magically gets reached, it's going to have to be ratified by 30+ parties, and there's the chance something could go wrong at the last minute. Detailed "no deal" planning -- which is entirely under the UK's control (pending some court challenges re: the divorce bill and the Northern Irish border?) -- may be the safest option.
     
  13. allezfred

    allezfred That Irish Guy Staff Member

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    Nothing and most British people outside Northern Ireland think very little of it (and a good number don't realise Ireland is a separate country).
     
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  14. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    When I was in the U.K. last year, I read in one of the newspapers that some were suggesting having Ireland perform the border inspections at its ports and airports that the British Government would otherwise have to do at the Ireland-Northern Ireland border. The absurdity of the idea was nowhere discussed. :duh:
     
  15. MacMadame

    MacMadame Cat Lady-in-Training

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    Because they aren't really as concerned about immigration as they say and also most don't really want to Brexit?

    That's what I get out of what is happening (based on behavior and not their words).
     
  16. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    Or maybe they think the Polish immigrants would rather stay in Ireland and might not want to go to England? And they may have a point.

    I can feel in myself a desire to stay away from crazy Brexiters and even more crazy would be ISIS bombers in England. Maybe the Poles could volunteer to work to get an ice rink in Dublin? ;)
     
  17. MacMadame

    MacMadame Cat Lady-in-Training

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    Btw, there is an ice rink in Dublin. Dublin, California that is. :D
     
  18. allezfred

    allezfred That Irish Guy Staff Member

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    Fcuck all use to me to have an ice rink in Fake Dublin. :drama:
     
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  19. MacMadame

    MacMadame Cat Lady-in-Training

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    It's not supposed to be useful to you. It's supposed to annoy you. ;)
     
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  20. Louis

    Louis Well-Known Member

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    I'm feeling a bit more optimistic after reading the detailed reports. It sounds like citizens' rights agreements are now focused on relatively minor points -- like ability to bring future family members, right to return and have residency access after a long period of absence, etc. And there has apparently been progress on the Northern Irish border.... don't really understand how, but good for them if there has.

    The divorce bill is the biggest barrier, and honestly, that's understandable. The UK will have some relationship with the EU in the future; how much it pays should tie into what benefits it will continue to receive through a bilateral agreement.
     
  21. Tinami Amori

    Tinami Amori Well-Known Member

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    Good idea.... as long as they are not engaged to deliver Allezfred's furniture...:rofl:
     
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  22. allezfred

    allezfred That Irish Guy Staff Member

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    Polish is already the second most spoken language in Ireland after English. This is why I can recognise Polish swear words. :D
     
  23. Asli

    Asli Well-Known Member

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    AFAIK they won't be able to walk over the border into the UK freely. Since this will be an external border of the EU, Irish border police will have to check the passports of those going out as well as those coming in. Also, you normally cannot exit an EU country without proof that you have a right to enter your destination, so anyone going from Ireland to the UK will have to show their UK visa.

    It is all very well for the UK to say they won't make any border checks on the Irish border. Of course they have the right to make unilateral decisions on such subjects. Ireland, as an EU member, doesn't have that freedom.
     
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  24. Tinami Amori

    Tinami Amori Well-Known Member

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    Can you ask for directions if you ever travel to Szymankowszczyzna? .. :lol:
     
  25. allezfred

    allezfred That Irish Guy Staff Member

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    My Polish doesn't stretch that far....
     
  26. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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  27. Tinami Amori

    Tinami Amori Well-Known Member

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    That's ok..... I would not be able to talk to your hubby about grianghrafadoireacht either...:slinkaway
     
  28. allezfred

    allezfred That Irish Guy Staff Member

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    Grianghrafadóireacht....so close. ;)
     
  29. Tinami Amori

    Tinami Amori Well-Known Member

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    i am an equal opportunity misspeller..:wuzrobbed