News & Experiences continued

MacMadame

Staying at home
Staff member
Messages
34,663
Louis’ argument isn’t really about who is deserving but who has the greatest chance of a good long term outcome. IIUC, ethicists in Italy consented to the “less likely to treat those over 80” rule. They presumable picked that over the first come first serve rule.
I really don't have a problem with Italy doing that because of where they are today. But they were they are today because they didn't take the ***** seriously at first and really self-isolate for 2-3 weeks then it was first clear that the ***** was all over the world and not just in China. They screwed up, IMO.

And I really have a problem with someone who downplayed the ***** from day one, who went on vacation to Italy when it was on partial lockdown (and should have been on full lock-down) now saying that we're handling this situation all wrong because we are prioritizing old people over businesses.

If we are going to prioritize some patients over others, then I say people like @Louis should be put in the back of the line because those are the people who made this situation much worse than it had to be.

How's that for being cold? ;)

But their numbers will count in the Montgomery County count. Two days from now, if they said 50 people today tested positive in Montgomery County, that probably will not be people all from Montgomery County.
What does it matter?
 

allezfred

#EpidemiologistsNotEconomists
Staff member
Messages
56,120
This is one of those times I think "boy I'm glad my parents are dead." I mean, wait, that's not right :eek: Well I mean I was lucky this kind of thing wasn't going on when they were in their older vulnerable years.

Hugs to everyone who has older parents/grandparents who are at risk. I can only imagine how hard this is.
Cannot imagine how much more stressful it would have been if this had been happening two years ago when Mr allezfred was flying back and forth to Japan to take care of his mother in her final months.
 

KCC

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,901
Is there a website that shows the number of people hospitalized from the *****? I clicked through all of the links on the Resources discussion page and I see "confirmed cases" and "deaths", but not the number hospitalized or needing aggressive treatment. Just wondering.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
Messages
56,018
And I really have a problem with someone who downplayed the ***** from day one, who went on vacation to Italy when it was on partial lockdown (and should have been on full lock-down) now saying that we're handling this situation all wrong because we are prioritizing old people over businesses.
This is why some people don't trust liberals. They often seem to have no idea how our society functions. I would like some pretty radical reforms but I do not confuse the economy with someone else's profits. We all need the economy to function. And I'd be shocked if many people really believed that people don't suffer and die from economic want. Certainly people recognize how much suffering there was during the Great Depression of the 1930s, right? If the economy ends up even part of the way there, people will die, people will commit suicide because they lose their jobs, people will lose their jobs and have no health insurance and die.

Louis is right here. We are evaluating risk. Now maybe he's wrong to think the economy faltering will cause more suffering than the *****. But he's not saying "who cares if people suffer" he's saying which suffering people do we prioritize. Most of us are saying we need to stop this ***** and the economy will be okay, but he's saying what if we have it wrong?

In fact, I HOPE that decision makers in government are asking these questions, not because they will necessarily decide to do things differently but because they are questions that need to be asked in order to come up with the best decisions.

One of the things about ethics is that when you study it, you realize that social decision makers face horrible decisions often. We just like to pretend they don't and that we never face an either/or situation where one person will get help and another will not. Unfortunately that's not the real world.
 

skatingguy

Golden Team
Messages
7,272
Is there a website that shows the number of people hospitalized from the *****? I clicked through all of the links on the Resources discussion page and I see "confirmed cases" and "deaths", but not the number hospitalized or needing aggressive treatment. Just wondering.
I think it depends on what jurisdiction you're looking at. In China, for example, as an authoritarian state people were being dragged out of their homes at the height of the outbreak and confined to hospitals or hotels depending on the state of the symptoms - see the news stories about the hotel that collapsed. In most democratic countries only the most serious cases are in hospital, and then there is Italy where in some places only those who are deemed to have a good chance of survival are being hospitalized because of lack of beds.

This website that many of us have been using is this one:
https://www.worldometers.info/********/
It includes a column for serious/critical cases which are the cases that are in hospital and are the most concerning because of the limited number of respirators worldwide.
 

skatingguy

Golden Team
Messages
7,272
Cannot imagine how much more stressful it would have been if this had been happening two years ago when Mr allezfred was flying back and forth to Japan to take care of his mother in her final months.
Two years ago today my brother was admitted into hospital in Montreal for a burst blood vessel in his brain. He ended up spending 3 weeks in hospital in Montreal & Ottawa. If that had been this year we would not have been able to visit him in the hospital.
 

ballettmaus

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,155
It actually is pretty close to what we have here in the San Francisco Bay Area. Except we are allowed to exercise with other people if they are (1) someone we live with or (2) just one other person and we stay 6 ft apart. Personally, I think they shouldn't have said that part. Because a lot of my triathlete friends are still trying to organize group rides and group runs. IME, in those situations, there is always someone (or more than one someones) who does not stay 6 ft apart and also all those people who are putting us old folk and sick folk in danger because they can't modify their behavior even just a little bit suck.
I think it makes sense to allow someone to go out with someone they live with especially if it's family and not roommates. But that should be it. (And people who still organize groups annoy me because they're obviously still not taking it seriously).


Yesterday was the first day of no school in this part of Germany but my neighbors certainly weren't social distancing. As I drove home from work, there must have been 20-30 little kids out playing on our street, rollerblading and riding scooters, with all of their parents standing around supervising and chatting with each other. Crazy.
We've been out on a walk during the afternoon today (went late evening the past couple of days) and were surprised by how many people were out and how vigorously everyone kept up with the social distancing (putting distance between them and us when we passed each other). There was one group who was sitting by the community tennis court (which are still open and I don't understand why) but they sat a few feet apart on the lawn.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,272
I think the government is trying to deal with both. (Every other article I see is about either an attempt to help curb the illness or an attempt to help protect the economy or people likely to suffer from problems facing the economy). And if we do not try to deal with both, then the other will suffer regardless. How well would the economy be doing right now if it was announced that an entire generation was going to die, hmm?

Here are some examples of how people and our leaders are trying to help:

School meal programs are still up & running. I don't know what this looks like in different school districts, but since schools generally provide breakfast, lunch, and in some cases "backpack programs"--in which kids take home food to help their family make it through the weekend, I would hope it is something equivalent.

Laws are being passed to stop families from being evicted if they cannot pay this month's rent. It's probably a stopgap measure at this point in time, but rent is a huge chunk of monthly expenses for families that live paycheck to paycheck so it can certainly help.

We've got extra beds being brought in to help the homeless. I'm not really sure what the thinking is here as we don't want huge groups of people together, but it does sound like someone's attempt to help a population that probably isn't politicking for themselves.

Ticketsellers, hotels, and airlines are offering full refunds on trips when they know they cannot book anyone to replace those clients. Many, many businesses are paying workers to stay home. Other businesses are adapting--trying to create successful ***** tests, cutting back hours in order to complete better sanitation procedures, adapting their products to try to provide hand sanitizer, clearing storage space to provide toilet paper, and hiring more workers to see that groceries and online goods can get to people who need them.

Articles informing the public about the ***** and staying put also advise people to stay in touch, to help people at high risk to obtain supplies in less risky manners, and to come home. Come home but don't go stay with your elderly parents but find someone who can help them if they become sick?? You really do have to use your brain and look at your own situation in order to sort through some of this stuff. Don't go out, don't go out, don't go out--I must have read the sentiment three times in the publication about one of the recent lockdowns (Paris?) before buried toward the ending paragraph was a line about how an evening jog is OK.

If we are worried about citizens missing out on vital medical care that is not related to the ******** (which I think we should be), then we need to start to have some separate medical facilities and also help citizens know what types of problems are important to get checked out. Hopefully doctors are communicating with their regular patients. And if we are worried that people are going to suffer from mental health problems, then we certainly shouldn't assign the responsibility to any one particular group. No one--from any age group, cultural background, educational or income level--needs to feel expendable, alone, blamed, or ignored in a crisis.

For many of us the natural inclination in a difficult situation is to act. To do something to make things better. So people are trying to figure out what that is for them. They are trying to follow advice from medical experts and from political leaders and yet to parse through the more general messages to determine what is best for their own families. And many people are worried or stressed so they feel the best thing to do is state those worries or fears clearly to those around them. Which is OK. Discussion is what we do here. But you really don't have to look far to see that so many people and leaders and workers are trying to do the right thing here. It can be very hard to know what that is. It depends on your job and your expertise and your family.

I genuinely appreciate the people who are trying to keep us informed. And I really appreciate the personal stories we are hearing here. This is such an amazing place because of all the international viewpoints and insights. But I also really, really appreciate the creative, positive, and uplifting ways people are trying to help. (I love the meme thread :biggrinbo). It's hard to know what is right. Every country & region is working on a different timeline and with different challenges. But I really feel like, in general, we are doing our best.
 
Last edited:

KCC

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,901
This website that many of us have been using is this one:
https://www.worldometers.info/********/
It includes a column for serious/critical cases which are the cases that are in hospital and are the most concerning because of the limited number of respirators worldwide.
How did I miss that??? :duh: I look at that website several times a day and still didn't notice the "Serious or Critical" cases. Thanks for pointing it out.
 

skatingguy

Golden Team
Messages
7,272
How did I miss that??? :duh: I look at that website several times a day and still didn't notice the "Serious or Critical" cases. Thanks for pointing it out.
There is so much information out there, and on that site in particular, that it's easy to miss. :) That site has so many breakdowns it really is quite extensive, and helpful.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
Messages
56,018
The Kennedy Center has cancelled all performances through May 10 now.

Are people seeing cancellations farther out elsewhere?
 

skatingguy

Golden Team
Messages
7,272
The Kennedy Center has cancelled all performances through May 10 now.

Are people seeing cancellations farther out elsewhere?
It seems like events in April and early May are where the cancellations & postponements are happening right now. Many events require public health or emergency declarations to be enacted in order for their insurance policies to kick in, and so as jurisdictions enact & extend those we will see more statement from events scheduled for later in the calendar year.
 

Aceon6

Isolating from mean people
Messages
20,427
Are people seeing cancellations farther out elsewhere?
We’re seeing things that require ramp up time being pushed out to August/September. For example, a relative’s semi professional theatre hopes to be able to rehearse by July, but they’re afraid many actors won‘t be available. To be safe, they’re planning to stage the April production in September.
 

PrincessLeppard

Holding Alex Johnson's Pineapple
Messages
26,865
There was a shooting in a grocery store here in Omaha. I don't have details yet; apparently it was in the pharmacy.

eta: no one injured.
 
Last edited:

Polaris

Well-Known Member
Messages
972
China put the entire Hubei province of 58.5 MILLION people on lockdown, and it worked. Draconian quarantines WORK to halt a *********. I don't get why some of you in here are still hand-wringing over a maybe psuedo-lockdown.
 

Dave of the North

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,283
Here is a link to the stats for the State of Washington. People will recall this was the first place in the US to report a *********-19 case. (on Jan 21)

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/********

They have tested 14129 people (as of 3:15 PM Mar 17). Of those 1012 have tested positive, or 7.16 %

We can assume that these tests were done because people were showing symptoms, they had been exposed to others with the disease, and/or they had been travelling in an area with a high number of *********-19 cases. That is, these tests were not random tests. Of course the people tested may develop the disease later.

They have a statement: "Public health experts agree that the true number of people who have been infected with *********-19 in Washington greatly exceeds the number of *********-19 infections that have been laboratory-confirmed."

What would we do without experts? ;) What does "greatly exceeds" mean? Let's assume it is double the confirmed cases i.e. 2000 more have been infected with *********-19 but don't know it, and/or are not sick enough to get tested.

Of the 1012 positive cases, 52 have died. This is 5.14 % of positive cases. (if you add in the 2000 that may be walking around with *********-19 then the percentage drops to 1.7%)

The percentage of people tested that have died is 0.37 %

Anyway considering the number people tested helps fill in the picture about the spread and the mortality rate of the *****.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Staff member
Messages
34,663
The Kennedy Center has cancelled all performances through May 10 now.

Are people seeing cancellations farther out elsewhere?
I postponed my event that was on June 14th. (I have to send out the notices to everyone who signed up already today but my Board of Directors hasn't gotten back to me.)

But for events I was going to, the latest one was May 9th. We just got the notice it was being postponed today. I don't think they've postponed any other Ironman races past that date but the way they are reporting on this makes it hard to tell.

I was going to respond to your post about how I don't understand how the world works but decided it wasn't worth it.
 

Dave of the North

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,283
Article about the US Navy getting their hospital ships ready to support hospitals on the coasts:

https://news.usni.org/2020/03/17/pe...tal-ships-mercy-comfort-for-********-response

"Two sources told USNI News that the idea was for the ships to provide relief for coastal hospital systems, with the ships taking on non-*********-19 cases and allowing the hospitals to focus on the most critical patients suffering from the *****. The Pentagon also has extensive equipment for erecting field hospitals in addition to the hospital ships, but those facilities are optimized for trauma cases, with several beds close together, and not for infectious patients."
 

Jimena

Well-Known Member
Messages
3,872
We need one of those in PR. Badly. Our infrastructure in damaged because of hurricane Maria, earthquakes early in the year, austerity measures, our fiscal control board and downright bad management. We have one fifth of the ICU beds per capita compared to CONUS. We will be screwed.
 
Top
Do Not Sell My Personal Information