News & Experiences continued

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
4,414
I did the other risk assessors linked in the article. One agreed that it was very high risk. Since it didn't have anything that exactly matched Nationals I went with a 6 hour church service (hey, if Michelle Kwan were competing that would be pretty accurate).

The other one gave me the option of being in a theater and said in my zip code it was a risk level of 26 out of 100 and I shouldn't worry. Out of curiosity I put in the Nashville zip code and the risk level went up to 31 but I still shouldn't worry.

So I guess the ideal solution is to move Nationals to my back yard and see to it that Michelle doesn't compete!
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,089
One of the DJs on a country music station in the Tri-Cities was out today, waiting on a ********* test because "it hurts to breathe." Her co-host, meanwhile, said he spent yesterday mourning because he received the news that the husband of one of his former cohosts (in Nevada) just died from ********* after three weeks in the hospital. The man who died was not vaccinated. I'm fairly certain the sick DJ on the Tri-Cities station is vaccinated, as she & her cohost have been supportive of safety measures & taking the ***** seriously since the start of the *********. I appreciate that he & she have been so honest with their audience.
 

MsZem

Well-Known Member
Messages
16,478
Broadway is back :)

This is wonderful - Lin-Manuel Miranda with company members from Hamilton, Wicked, and The Lion King.
 

Prancer

Professional Spuddler
Staff member
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51,812
If you don't want to read the article and just want to play with your risk budget, here's a direct link. Maybe it'll reassure you about your everyday activities, especially if you're good at staying on budget.
Apparently I need to stop running around in my county, as just living here is so high risk I should be sheltering in place :lol:.

The only low-risk activity I have is my guitar lesson--two people, three feet apart, both vaccinated, both masked and STILL it's 5% of my weekly risk factor. I was afraid to put in how often I am in a room with 22 students of unknown vaccination status, some of whom have poor mask skills. Or how often I go to the grocery store without a mask. Or...well, pretty much anything else I do.

:shuffle:
 

Miezekatze

Well-Known Member
Messages
16,038
Like TanithAndBenFan, I wonder about the point of assessing the risk for vaccinated people. I think the risk depends much more on whether the vaccinated people have risk factors that might make the vaccine work less.

I tried to simulate Nebelhorn Trophy with the risk calculator and it didn't change the result whether I chose "surgical mask" or "FFP2 mask", so I guess I could decide to wear the more comfortable mask, not sure that's the point of such a calculator :shuffle:

I got concert tickets for next year :lol: :

March: 10000 outdoor
April: 10000 - 40000 outdoor
July: 60.000 outdoors
August: 150.000 outdoor

Now I'm not sure all of those will actually happen in 2022 already, but if they do I suppose I shouldn't enter them into a risk calculator :shuffle:

One of our head virologists said he thinks the ***** will continue to circulate quite strongly among the adult population for some more years, even if the ***** is endemic. So even if the ***** is endemic, like Denmark and Great Britain have already achieved, it's going to circulate. The numbers in Great Britain are much higher than in Germany, so when all restrictions are lifted, things are not going to get less risky, it's just that the governments don't care anymore how many people get infected, because the threat for the health system is gone.
I assume most vaccinated people without underlying risk factors will then resume normal life (if they haven't already anyway) and might get infected, especially if there might be no regular boosters for healthy younger adults.
 

skategal

Bunny mama
Messages
8,223
Yep….once kids have a chance to get vaccinated and the immunocompromised get their boosters. I expect life will return to normal.

I find the calculator interesting from a math/stats point of view but not sure it tells us anything we don’t already know.

I already knew it was risky to attend this wedding indoors unmasked with many people unvaxxed or not fully vaxxed in a location that has 1/3 of all the CV cases in Canada.

As an FYI update, we think the wedding may end up being postponed because the venues are planning to implement a vaccine policy and this will mean close family members of both the bride and groom will be unable to attend the wedding as they are unvaccinated or just recently vaccinated with 1 dose so no time left to get second dose. :rolleyes:
 

Miezekatze

Well-Known Member
Messages
16,038
I played around with that calculator a bit more for fun and like Prancer said, I think the rules are so strict, you basically can't leave your house for anything without using up your "risk budget" for the whole week even if you adjust it to the highest budget :shuffle:

Upcoming weekend I'm going to have horseback riding course with 11 people. Most of it is outdoor and distanced, but we'll be eating together and there's going to a theoretical part which is probably going to be indoors. Everybody will be tested or vaccinated or recovered and vaccinated in one case.

I played around with it a bit (only for the 2 hours indoor part) and I never got the risk of those 2 indoor hours below moderate (moderate would be if everybody is vaxxed and everybody wears KN95 masks all the time). The way we're actually going to do it (like mostly normal), it's still classified as high risk, even fully vaccinated.

They're stating on their blogpost though that the risk is all about risk of infection:
 
Messages
8,605
It sounds like I’ll be offered a third booster soon. I still don’t really feel like I should be on the “clinically extremely vulnerable” list at all so we’ll see what I do. I might call my doctor first.
 

clairecloutier

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,020
I went down to NYC last week for the JN Pairs Challenge and wound up using public transport quite a bit--commuter train and subway. I was a bit nervous about this. But I'd say 95-98% of people were wearing masks, and most of the trains weren't too crowded. I double-masked in the trains and all indoor locations, but maintaining 6-ft distancing is tough in crowded NYC. Tried to eat outside on all occasions (except on the last train ride, when I was suddenly overcome w/hunger and could not resist eating a pretzel on the train :D ). Got a PCR test yesterday--negative.

One issue I see with Nationals is probably having to eat indoors most of the time. It can get pretty chilly in January in Tennessee.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
4,414
Tennessee now leads the states in CV infections.

Tennessee leads the nation in new *********-19 cases per capita, new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found.

According to data compiled by The New York Times over the last week, the state has seen an average of over 8,300 new ******** infections each day.

Health experts believe part of the alarming number has to do with a low rate of vaccinations, particularly among children.

Fewer than one in four children ages 12 to 17 in Tennessee are vaccinated against *********-19.

 

wickedwitch

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,148
Amazingly dumb new travel restrictions in Switzerland:
  • Foreigners can enter the country with proof of vaccination
  • BUT non-EU/EFTA vaccination certificates won't be accepted anywhere (even in your hotel restaurant) once you enter the country
  • So non-EU/EFTA visitors will have to get repeatedly tested at their own expense every 2-3 days.


I had planned a trip there in October, but will cancel if they don't come up with a fix for this in the next week or so. What a way to kill tourism.
I have a colleague who moved to Europe for a job over the summer and has had an impossible time getting the EU to recognize the vaccine they got in the US. :wall:

On a similar note, I moved to New York state over the summer. I was vaccinated in Texas. NYS's vaccine pass doesn't acknowledge vaccines not given in NY or New Jersey. I have a photo of my vaccine card on my photo, but I'm just waiting for this to become an issue.
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
16,133
I have a colleague who moved to Europe for a job over the summer and has had an impossible time getting the EU to recognize the vaccine they got in the US. :wall:

An Italian friend of mine was living in Spain when he got C19. Spain does not, as a matter of practice, validate lateral flow tests with PCR tests.

Friend has moved back to Italy. Italy (and previously Spain) won't vaccinate him because he has had C19 in the previous three months, which is their policy. But Italy also won't recognize his recovery from C19 certificate because it wasn't diagnosed from a PCR test. So he's effectively locked out of society for months.
 

Prancer

Professional Spuddler
Staff member
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51,812
I played around with that calculator a bit more for fun and like Prancer said, I think the rules are so strict, you basically can't leave your house for anything without using up your "risk budget" for the whole week even if you adjust it to the highest budget :shuffle:

Yeah, I am not taking the assessments to heart. I mean, I got vaccinated for a reason and everything I have read or heard from sources I trust says that I have robust protection.

I did find one thing really interesting, though. As I have posted before, my husband got J&J and antibody tests have come back negative. No one seems to know what that means. But I put in some situations that we both experience and tried them once for me (Moderna, both shots) and then changed it to him (J&J, one shot) and the calculator said that his risk is almost double mine everywhere, based solely on the type of vaccine we got.

Husband's doctor told him that if he is concerned about his lack of antibodies, he should get another vaccination, but he won't do it and says he will just wait for a booster. Instead, he frets about traveling for work. I sent him a link for the calculator :shuffle:.
 

AJ Skatefan

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,661
I’m going to a Randy Rainbow concert next week. They’re requiring vaccinations and masks but the concert is indoors. According to this risk assessment I’m in grave danger. I’m also going to an outdoor concert on Saturday where only masks are required.
 
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Louis

Private citizen
Messages
16,133
I played around with that calculator a bit more for fun and like Prancer said, I think the rules are so strict, you basically can't leave your house for anything without using up your "risk budget" for the whole week even if you adjust it to the highest budget :shuffle:

I agree. Many reasonable people would play around with that calculator and say f*ck it all. It's virtually impossible to get anything indoors out of the "red" zone even with vaccination and masks, and even outdoor events are bright "orange."
If it's flaming red if I wear a mask and flaming red if I don't wear a mask, then why wear a mask? If the purpose of this calculator is to get people to change their behaviors, I suspect it will fail as fairly significant changes seem to have no benefit.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
4,414
In
Yeah, I am not taking the assessments to heart. I mean, I got vaccinated for a reason and everything I have read or heard from sources I trust says that I have robust protection.

I did find one thing really interesting, though. As I have posted before, my husband got J&J and antibody tests have come back negative. No one seems to know what that means. But I put in some situations that we both experience and tried them once for me (Moderna, both shots) and then changed it to him (J&J, one shot) and the calculator said that his risk is almost double mine everywhere, based solely on the type of vaccine we got.

Husband's doctor told him that if he is concerned about his lack of antibodies, he should get another vaccination, but he won't do it and says he will just wait for a booster. Instead, he frets about traveling for work. I sent him a link for the calculator.

Did the risk calculator thing ask type of vaccine or just the number of shots? Because one J&J shot should be equivalent to 2 shots but there's a definite difference between 1 and 2 shots of Moderna or Pfizer.
 

Miezekatze

Well-Known Member
Messages
16,038
I did find one thing really interesting, though. As I have posted before, my husband got J&J and antibody tests have come back negative. No one seems to know what that means. But I put in some situations that we both experience and tried them once for me (Moderna, both shots) and then changed it to him (J&J, one shot) and the calculator said that his risk is almost double mine everywhere, based solely on the type of vaccine we got.

Husband's doctor told him that if he is concerned about his lack of antibodies, he should get another vaccination, but he won't do it and says he will just wait for a booster. Instead, he frets about traveling for work. I sent him a link for the calculator :shuffle:.

I read in the German news today that France started an investigation on the efficency of J&J, because by far the most (serious) breakthrough infections of vaccinated people in France are with J&J. I googled I could find one English article on it:
AFAIK marbri said that Iceland also found J&J to be the least effective.

In Germany people who got J&J are already offered to get either Pfizer or Moderna on top of it.

If I were your husband I'd definitely get one of the mRNA vaccines and then resume normal life.

Generally AFAIK as of now Moderna is said to have the strongest protection against infection (probably because their vaccine has a higher dosage than Pfizers). Pfizers protection starts equally strong but the protection from infection seems to wane faster. But protection from severe illness stays equally strong with both vaccines, which I think is the most important.

Also our experts now say that the longer break between shots like in the UK indeed are better, so having gotten a mNRA vaccine with a longer space than 3 weeks between the 2 shots seems to be the optimum as of now.
 

marbri

Hey, Kool-Aid!
Messages
14,007
I read in the German news today that France started an investigation on the efficency of J&J, because by far the most (serious) breakthrough infections of vaccinated people in France are with J&J. I googled I could find one English article on it:
AFAIK marbri said that Iceland also found J&J to be the least effective.

In Germany people who got J&J are already offered to get either Pfizer or Moderna on top of it.

If I were your husband I'd definitely get one of the mRNA vaccines and then resume normal life.

Generally AFAIK as of now Moderna is said to have the strongest protection against infection (probably because their vaccine has a higher dosage than Pfizers). Pfizers protection starts equally strong but the protection from infection seems to wane faster. But protection from severe illness stays equally strong with both vaccines, which I think is the most important.

Also our experts now say that the longer break between shots like in the UK indeed are better, so having gotten a mNRA vaccine with a longer space than 3 weeks between the 2 shots seems to be the optimum as of now.

Correct. When the Delta wave hit us those who were vaccinated and still got infected were overwhelmingly Janssen recipients. So much so they offered an mRNA shot to everyone who got Janssen. Most of the 50 000+ who got Janssen received them in June/July and they gave them an mRNA booster mid-August, 28 days after your shot. The data I read at the time was showing that one shot of Janssen produced similar antibodies as one shot of Pfizer/Moderna/AZ that there was talk here that more research needed to be done to see if Janssen really should have been a two shot vaccine. Which seems to back up your mention that France started an investigation.

I don't have access to any of that info anymore so take it for what it is. Mainly posting to say that much of what you wrote was the talk here in late July from our data and what we were experiencing.

If someone were to ask me I would say get a mRNA booster if you got Janssen.
 

Spikefan

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,331
I went and got tested today as I am fatigued, congested, sore throat. We were on vacation last week visiting vaccinated family (in a highly unvaccinated area). I got J&J, husband Moderna. If I come back positive I will be talking to my doctor about getting Moderna or Pfizer when I can. The lack of official information for J&J vaccinated is frustrating.
 

skategal

Bunny mama
Messages
8,223
Canada approved J&J, bought 10 million doses and rolled out none of it. Donated it all to COVAX.

My cousin’s wedding which we declined due to CV concerns I’m pretty sure just got postponed due to new restrictions in Alberta including a cap of 50 guests on indoor weddings and no receptions plus vaccine passports and many family members not fully vaccinated.

Before they even announced those restrictions, they had pretty much decided to just go get married on a terrace of a restaurant and have a reception next summer. So they will probably do that.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,089
Yep….once kids have a chance to get vaccinated and the immunocompromised get their boosters. I expect life will return to normal.
I think it will take until vaccinations are mandated in schools.

-----

Arkansas has now given enough doses to cover 50% of the total population.

-----

Oregon had 2,069 new cases, 1,067 hospitalizations, 46 deaths, and 10,414 vaccinations reported today. More people age 29 & younger died from ********* in Oregon over the past 6 weeks than throughout the rest of the *********. (11 people before this surge, 14 people during it). In the last 3 days, there have been 12 deaths for people age 60 & younger. 40 elementary students in Portland have been quarantined due to another school bus exposure. (Apparently because there are no assigned seats). Meanwhile one of the districts here just held bus evacuation drills for whole schools:rolleyes:.
 

skatfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,799
I agree. Many reasonable people would play around with that calculator and say f*ck it all. It's virtually impossible to get anything indoors out of the "red" zone even with vaccination and masks, and even outdoor events are bright "orange."
If it's flaming red if I wear a mask and flaming red if I don't wear a mask, then why wear a mask? If the purpose of this calculator is to get people to change their behaviors, I suspect it will fail as fairly significant changes seem to have no benefit.
This. I found it pretty frustrating that anything at all put me on the red, when I know there’s a big difference between going to a play un masked and hanging out with a small group of vaccinated Friends.
 

once_upon

Vaccinated
Messages
19,325
Before they even announced those restrictions, they had pretty much decided to just go get married on a terrace of a restaurant and have a reception next summer. So they will probably do that.
My neighbor - the judge - says that she has officiated at 5 marriages this week. I asked what she thought was the driving factors for the small weddings, usually the couple and 2 attendants. She thought that so many couples have been postponing and postponing and just decided to get married and have the party/reception later.
 

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