News & Experiences continued

Buzz

Socialist Canada
Messages
34,451
The emergency stay at home order expired at midnight but restrictions are not expected to ease until June 14th.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
4,071
The New York Times morning email report was hopeful and reassuring (I have edited out the charts, but since this is an email, there is no link):

Hope over fear​

When the C.D.C. reversed its *********-19 guidelines last month and said that vaccinated Americans rarely needed to wear masks, it caused both anxiety and uncertainty.​
Many people worried that the change would cause unvaccinated people to shed their masks and create a surge of new cases. On the flip side, a more optimistic outcome also seemed possible: that the potential to live mostly mask-free would inspire some vaccine-hesitant Americans to get their shots.​
Almost three weeks after the change, we can begin to get some answers by looking at the data. So far, it suggests that the optimists were better prognosticators than the pessimists.​

Cases keep falling​

First, new ********* cases have continued to decline at virtually the same rate as during the month before the C.D.C. announcement, which came on May 13:
Overall, daily new cases have fallen by almost 75 percent since mid-April and by more than 90 percent from the peak in January.​
A crucial point is that the loosened guidelines probably did not cause many people to change their behavior in ways that created new risks. Vaccinated people went maskless more often, but they are extremely unlikely to get the *****. And even before the C.D.C. change, many unvaccinated Americans were already not wearing masks, particularly in Republican-leaning communities.​
The only newly worrisome scenarios involve unvaccinated people who had been wearing masks and decided to stop doing so after the C.D.C.’s new policy. Surely, some Americans fall into this category. But there don’t seem to be enough of them to increase the spread of the *****.​

Shots have stopped falling​

On the other hand, the C.D.C.’s change has had a noticeable effect on behavior in a positive way.​
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the agency’s director, announced the new mask recommendations at 2:17 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, May 13. Almost immediately, the number of visits to vaccines.gov — a website where people can research their local vaccination options — spiked, CNN’s Elizabeth Cohen has reported.​
Traffic to the website rose even higher later that afternoon, after President Biden celebrated the change and encouraged Americans to get vaccinated so they could remove their masks. In the days that followed, traffic to vaccines.gov remained higher than it had been before the announcement.​
More important, the vaccination trends also changed after Walensky’s announcement. For the previous month, the number of daily shots in the U.S. had been falling, as the country began to run out of adults who were eager to be vaccinated. With a few days of the mask announcement, the decline leveled off.

‘Some positive reinforcement’​

All of this is a reminder that fear is not the only way to motivate healthy behavior during a crisis. For much of the *********, the message from the C.D.C. has been one of “doom and gloom,” Dr. Jonathan Reiner of George Washington University told CNN. And fear can play an important role: ********* is a deadly disease, especially for people over 40.​
But fear tends to be effective “for only a short period of time, and then often engenders reactance and resistance,” Sarit Golub, a Hunter College psychology professor, has written. Hope can be more sustainable. As Reiner said, “When you give the public some positive reinforcement, it really can bear fruit.”​
In the case of the ********* vaccines, the hope is grounded in reality. Once you are fully vaccinated, you no longer need to organize your life around personal fear of ********* (unless you are immunocompromised). You can safely travel, eat in restaurants, shop in stores, visit with friends and hug your extended family. You can do all of it without a mask. Many other normal activities — like riding in a car or exposing yourself to a normal flu season — present more risk.​
After almost 15 months of ********* living, I know that may sound aggressive, but it’s not. It is a straightforward summary of the scientific evidence.​
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,072
The number of vaccinations here have definitely kept dropping. From over 50,000 at the very peak and now 3 days in a row below 10,000. (Today's might climb over that as more vaccinations are recorded)

The governor changed the age range for the 70% reopening requirement from people ages 16 & up to people ages 18 & up. This makes the goal easier to reach, but officially the reasoning for this is that the CDC tracks ages 18 & up rather than 16 & up. Since the state's vaccination record doesn't include some of the shots that the CDC is counting, I can see why we are going to follow the CDC data. Currently, the state is at @66% of the adult population with one dose. We need another 170,000 adults to get a first shot prior to reopening . . . This doesn't sound easy given the state's plummeting vaccination numbers so fingers crossed.

My dad said people at the grocery store were wearing masks last weekend. (A good sign because most of them weren't the last time I went there 3 weeks ago). The checkers in the store I've been at the last couple weeks don't wear masks or check vaccination status; but they, themselves, are vaccinated & should be fully percolated now.

Kids & staff are no longer required to keep their masks on at recess, and more classes in more schools are mixing & playing on the equipment rather than in assigned portions of a field. Many kids still wear the masks outside & many kids were letting them fall off their faces during recesses before, but it is now actually policy. This, of course, is due to changes in advice for outdoor masking policy rather than for people who are vaccinated. Kids at recess are essentially similar to a large number of people playing a contact sport, though kids don't have to choose to mix in the crowded areas.

Oregon's average new case numbers for the week are now in the 300s.

___________

Florida moved down from orange to yellow on the NPR map. There are currently 4 states in orange: Washington, Wyoming, Colorado, & West Virginia. All other states are currently in yellow.
 

Karen-W

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,233
The number of vaccinations here have definitely kept dropping. From over 50,000 at the very peak and now 3 days in a row below 10,000. (Today's might climb over that as more vaccinations are recorded)

The governor changed the age range for the 70% reopening requirement from people ages 16 & up to people ages 18 & up. This makes the goal easier to reach, but officially the reasoning for this is that the CDC tracks ages 18 & up rather than 16 & up. Since the state's vaccination record doesn't include some of the shots that the CDC is counting, I can see why we are going to follow the CDC data. Currently, the state is at @66% of the adult population with one dose. We need another 170,000 adults to get a first shot prior to reopening . . . This doesn't sound easy given the state's plummeting vaccination numbers so fingers crossed.
Well, the good news is that Marion County's increase in vaccinated people over the last week is 9%. If they keep up that clip over the next week, they'll easily hit 65% and vaccinate another 24,500 people. Likewise, Washington County has had a 9.2% increase in vaccinations over the last week - if they keep that rate up, that's 44,700 people; if Multnomah keeps up its 8% increase that is another 55,400 people; Clackamas has had an increase of 7.7% increase which equates to 27,000 people. Those four counties alone, if they keep up the current pace will total 151,000 new vaccinations - add in Deschutes keeping up its 8.1% clip and Jackson at its 7.5% pace would mean another 26,600 and put us well over the 170,000 threshold; and there's another 13,600 from Linn, Columbia & Crook if they all keep up their current rates (8.1%, 10.3% and 8.3% respectively).

I'm not saying there isn't a challenge still but just looking at the counties that have sustained vaccination rates over 7% during the last week (with the long holiday weekend factoring into the picture), and not even considering some of the more populous counties where rates have fallen (Lane) or never were anything to celebrate (I'm looking at you Douglas, Umatilla, Klamath, Josephine), there isn't any reason to predict dire doom and gloom in reaching the 70% goal - even if Brown did change the goalpost again (shocking development, I tell you, never would have predicted that :rolleyes:) - and no, it makes the goal harder to reach because we aren't counting any 16 & 17 year olds who have been vaccinated.
 

MsZem

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,706
Israel will finally start vaccinating 12-15 year olds next week. It's not clear how many will go for this given that the risk within Israel is currently low, but hopefully compliance will be high.
 

Dave of the North

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,649
NB, after having set goals for reopening in three stages, now realizes they might not reach those goals. The first was to have 75% of eligible people with one shot by June 7. They are at 64.5 %, would need about 12,000 people per day vaccinated to reach 75% by June 7, and they've been getting half that. They're now trying to figure out how many people might have gotten vaccinated outside the province. :lol:

Frankly I don't think the plan was realistic and I'm already pre-annoyed at the messaging we expect to get that we aren't doing our part by not doubling our vaccination rate overnight.:mad:
 
Last edited:

skategal

Bunny mama
Messages
7,816
NB, after having set goals for reopening in three stages, now realizes they might not reach those goals. The first was to have 75% of eligible people with one shot by June 7. They are at 64.5 %, would need about 12,000 people per day vaccinated to reach 75% by June 7, and they've been getting half that. They're now trying to figure out how many people might have gotten vaccinated outside the province. :lol:

Frankly I don't think the plan was realistic and I'm already annoyed at the messaging I expect to get that we aren't doing our part by not doubling our vaccination rate overnight.:mad:
It wasn’t too hard to figure out from the first day they announced it that they wouldn’t meet their vaccination goal by the date they hoped.

So I’m not sure what the reasoning was to release that?

NS got severely ridiculed for not having dates in our plan, but maybe Rankin & Co did the right thing after all. LOL!
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,072
no, it makes the goal harder to reach because we aren't counting any 16 & 17 year olds who have been vaccinated.
This would be true if 16 & 17-year-olds had a better vaccination rate than adults, but I don't think the 16 & older state data indicates that is the case?

We are, obviously, counting on the urban counties to get this done & I hope they can. Some of the new vaccinations are for people 12-17 because that is the most recent age range to open up + only Pfizer is available & arrangements had to be made to send & store it in places that were outside the metro area. So total vaccination rates per county aren't enough to look at either. We would need the 170,000 doses to all be adults. (In order to really meet the goal without again moving goal posts). The good thing about kids 5 & up is that if the percentages in that age range don't cut it healthwise, schools could ultimately mandate vaccinations. I wouldn't anticipate that happening while the vaccines are under emergency approval; but in the long run, it's an option & I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. (As the state already mandates other vaccinations, albeit those don't require an update every year).

Is there county-specific CDC data on Umatilla & Klamath Counties? Tribe members in those counties will have been vaccinated by the Indian Health Services. In Umatilla County at least, non-tribe members were also vaccinated by IHS. Probably in Klamath as well. In your previous post, you mentioned that IHS numbers might be included under the CDC data rather than state data.
 
Last edited:

Karen-W

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,233
This would be true if 16 & 17-year-olds had a better vaccination rate than adults, but I don't think the 16 & older state data indicates that is the case?

We are, obviously, counting on the urban counties to get this done & I hope they can. Some of the new vaccinations are for people 12-17 because that is the most recent age range to open up + only Pfizer is available & arrangements had to be made to send & store it in places that were outside the metro area. So total vaccination rates per county aren't enough to look at either. We would need the 170,000 doses to all be adults. (In order to really meet the goal without again moving goal posts). The good thing about kids 5 & up is that if the percentages in that age range don't cut it healthwise, schools could ultimately mandate vaccinations. I wouldn't anticipate that happening while the vaccines are under emergency approval; but in the long run, it's an option & I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. (As the state already mandates other vaccinations, albeit those don't require an update every year).

Is there county-specific CDC data on Umatilla & Klamath Counties? Tribe members in those counties will have been vaccinated by the Indian Health Services. In Umatilla County at least, non-tribe members were also vaccinated by IHS. Probably in Klamath as well. In your previous post, you mentioned that IHS numbers might be included under the CDC data rather than state data.
I think tribal data is included on the Oregon state website. It says that their system doesn't capture doses administered by the VA, DOD, or Fed Bureau of Prisons - no mention of IHS.

The State website is not entirely helpful since it does include the 16-17 yr olds who have been vaxxed. I'm not sure if the percent increase is for just the 16+ population or for the entire population either - again, hard to say because the state website doesn't explicitly say.

My expectation is that it will take another 2 weeks to get to 70% because, as you note, the vaccination rates have dropped below 10k in recent days.

On a personal positive note - the younger niece isn't going to have a choice but to get vaccinated as she made the cheer squad at Western Oregon. Yay for small victories!
 

just tuned in

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,186
Sorry if this is old news: https://www.businessinsurance.com/a...ompulsory-vaccinations-*********-19-********-

Same info is here: https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/****...xas-hospital-workers-sue-over-vaccine-mandate


"More than 100 workers in the Houston Methodist Hospital system filed a lawsuit Friday over their employer’s forced *********-19 vaccination policy that states they get vaccinated by June 7 or lose their jobs. “For the first time in the history of the United States, an employer is forcing an employee to participate in an experimental vaccine trial as a condition for continued employment,” states the suit, filed by 117 defendants in the District Court of Montgomery County, Texas, against named defendants The Methodist Hospital, Houston Methodist and The Woodlands Hospital."

Hospital workers refusing to get vaccinated. SMH
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
4,071
Cases in the US are dropping dramatically.

The seven-day average of about 15,600 cases per day is the lowest level of new recorded cases in the U.S. since March 2020 - though comparisons to the first month of the ********* can be tricky given that testing still lagged at that time.

"Our seven-day average is about 15,600 cases per day," Walensky said during a White House press briefing. "This represents a decrease of more than 30 percent from our prior seven-day average and more importantly it is a 94 percent decrease from the peak of *********-19 cases we reported in January of this year...

Average daily deaths have also fallen sharply, to about 363 per day, according to CDC data, also the lowest level since March 2020.

The rapidly improving situation comes as more and more people get vaccinated. Almost 63 percent of U.S. adults now have received at least one dose of a ******** vaccine.
 

Dave of the North

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,649
It wasn’t too hard to figure out from the first day they announced it that they wouldn’t meet their vaccination goal by the date they hoped.

So I’m not sure what the reasoning was to release that?

NS got severely ridiculed for not having dates in our plan, but maybe Rankin & Co did the right thing after all. LOL!

Given the Israel results with just under 60% fully vaccinated, maybe in a few weeks they'll lower their target.
 

Miezekatze

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,731
Given the Israel results with just under 60% fully vaccinated, maybe in a few weeks they'll lower their target.
I think Israel has 30% under 16 year olds though (someone correct me if that's wrong), so I think their adult vaccination rate is actually quite impressive.

Edit: just got that you mean it's impressive how well the vaccine works there , yeah that's true.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Messages
41,360
I think we need to remember that the 70% figure for herd immunity is just a guess. I'm not sure how we, as a country in the US, fixated on this number because I've read many articles that gave a range and also said we just don't know yet.

So it's quite possible the real number is lower. Or higher. But lower seems more likely given countries like Israel and the results they've had.
 

flyingsit

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,769
I think we need to remember that the 70% figure for herd immunity is just a guess. I'm not sure how we, as a country in the US, fixated on this number because I've read many articles that gave a range and also said we just don't know yet.

So it's quite possible the real number is lower. Or higher. But lower seems more likely given countries like Israel and the results they've had.
And the percentage also includes people who have at least temporary immunity due to previous infection, and at least 10% of the US population has been infected.
 

MsZem

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,706
I think Israel has 30% under 16 year olds though (someone correct me if that's wrong), so I think their adult vaccination rate is actually quite impressive.

Edit: just got that you mean it's impressive how well the vaccine works there , yeah that's true.
Approximately, yes. The figures I've seen indicate that more than 80% of the population over 16 is vaccinated (breakdown by age group - hope the link works). Recently recovered people are not eligible; 12-15 year olds will become eligible next week.

The current rolling average for new daily cases is 15 and the test positivity rate is 0.1%. Everything is open but masks are still (officially) required indoors and on public transport.
 

manhn

Well-Known Member
Messages
13,551
British Columbia and AZ: People who got AZ as their first shot will get second shot after at least 8 weeks. None of our remaining AZ had the issue of them expiring end of May. They have a choice of AZ or Pfzier/Moderna. If you got a first AZ at a local pharmacy, the pharmacist will call you to set that second appointment (don't call them). If it's Pfizer/Moderna, you will get the email/text like the other residents.

8 weeks for me in mid-June, I will take whichever gets me the shot first. But I will probably get AZ because my local pharmacy was small (no lineups like at the mass clinics that people with Pfizer/Moderna had to visit), I can schedule it on a weekend, and it's close to home.
 
Last edited:

once_upon

Well-Known Member
Messages
18,642
I think we need to remember that the 70% figure for herd immunity is just a guess. I'm not sure how we, as a country in the US, fixated on this number because I've read many articles that gave a range and also said we just don't know yet.

So it's quite possible the real number is lower. Or higher. But lower seems more likely given countries like Israel and the results they've had.
Given that herd immunity vaccination rate of 95% is the measles threshold and polio is 80%, I believe 70% is waaaayyyy too low.
 

acraven

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,315
Fauci's estimate of what might be needed for herd immunity definitely crept up as more was learned about how easily *********-19 spreads. And that was based on the original version of the *****. The latest I've read is that the UK variant (sorry--is that Beta?) is about 1.6 times as infectious as the original. And now they're estimating the Indian variant (Delta?) is about 1.6 times as infection as UK/Beta. Clearly 70% is way too low.

I haven't seen any estimates of how many of the vaccinated folks are also included in the number of folks who've been infected. Perhaps the CDC has some data on that, or a decent estimate. There may not be much overlap, but we can't count the same people twice.
 

skategal

Bunny mama
Messages
7,816
Our Medical Officer of Health is saying 75% of the population need to be vaccinated which is 85% of the population that is eligible to be vaccinated.
 

Dave of the North

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,649
Our Medical Officer of Health is saying 75% of the population need to be vaccinated which is 85% of the population that is eligible to be vaccinated.
And ours is saying 75% of the eligible population...

On the herd immunity threshold question, the 60% -75% values are based on YKW having an R value between 2.5 and 4. (according to Wikipedia), while measles is 12-18 and polio is 5-7. There's even a nice graph that some rando prepared. ;)

Basic Reproduction Number
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,072

White House lays out plan to share millions of ********* doses with poorer nations​


"The Biden administration has committed to donating at least 20 million doses of ********* vaccines produced by Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson as well as 60 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccines, which has not yet been authorized for use in the United States.

The U.S. plans to allocate 75% of the vaccines through the COVAX global vaccine sharing program, the White House in an email. Of the first 25 million doses, about 6 million will go to countries in South and Central America, 7 million to Asia and 5 million to Africa, the White House said. About 6 million will go to neighboring countries and U.S. allies."
 

FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,835
I have been doing spreadsheets on this thing since the beginning. I update everyday and back correct for cases or deaths that are added. In the last few weeks many of our states and countries around the world are adding backlogs of deaths and cases that go back to the beginning of this whole event. In the last week, almost 120,000 new death have been added. The biggest portion is from Peru. 5000+ from Mexico and about 3000 in this country. I have a feeling that this is the beginning of a trend where as this thing winds down, the backlog of cases and deaths are going to be added. By the end of the summer we will have a clear indication that this thing was a lot, lot worse than what we were lead to believe a year ago...
 
Last edited:

once_upon

Well-Known Member
Messages
18,642
We did a crisis trip to Denver (our son had a medical emergency) and the difference from April to June is so weird.

Although the "corporate" policy is masking in all public areas for the hotel chain we stayed in, not many employees asked guests not wearing masks to put one on. Mostly people responded-im vaccinated.

Tonight we were told the breakfast buffet would be available-full one (eggs, bacon, sausage etc). The hotel manager was SOOOOOOO excited to be able to offer that.

Then we went to Ruby Tuesday for supper - they had a salad bar. I mean a real to goodness salad bar!

Masking is hit and miss.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,072
Oregon reached 4 million vaccinations today.

436 new cases. Most of the week has been quite a bit lower. The holiday weekend is probably messing with numbers, but I think the weekly average will be down.

Very rural Gilliam County--with a population of about 1,500--had 7 new cases yesterday. Not only a new daily high for them but a weekly new high as well. Memorial Day weekend cases? 3 of the most rural counties in the state are suddenly in dark orange on the NYT map. (All three so rural that the NYT doesn't even bother to list them on their list of counties with the most cases per capita). Gilliam has less than 30% of the population vaccinated:wall:. (Though I would be surprised if some of their vaccinations aren't being counted by neighboring counties as Gilliam never had control of its own vaccine and almost all seniors who were vaccinated there prior to April had to travel across county lines for vaccinations). The county has been "low-risk" throughout the entire ********* and has gone a lot of weeks without any cases at all, which is good from a health & economic standpoint but misleading for people assessing their own personal risk when it comes to needing to get vaccinated.

Most masking requirements will supposedly be lifted when the state reaches 70% vaccinated. (We'll see).

There is a new Public Service Announcement on the local radio this week from the Oregon Health Authority. I think it does a pretty good job targeting its vaccine hesitant audience. (Acknowledges the importance of making a "personal choice and asking questions, then strongly recommends talking to your doctor--before getting into the positives about getting vaccinated). The station I heard it on was from Goldendale/Wasco County. They should pay for spots on the Tri-Cities, WA stations also as those stations cover a good chunk of vaccine-hesitant Oregon. (Washington has its own PSAs, of course; but they--obviously--don't target the audience across the river. People here don't qualify for their incentives;)).

Supposedly the most recent *********-related press conference was about how there are now two different pandemics in the state. A waning one for people who are vaccinated and one raging as much as ever for people who aren't. There are slides. I'm not up for them today;).

This is a major graduation weekend so we're about to find out how Memorial Day weekend + graduations + graduation parties affect the partially vaccinated state.
 

flyingsit

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,769
We did a crisis trip to Denver (our son had a medical emergency) and the difference from April to June is so weird.

Although the "corporate" policy is masking in all public areas for the hotel chain we stayed in, not many employees asked guests not wearing masks to put one on. Mostly people responded-im vaccinated.

Tonight we were told the breakfast buffet would be available-full one (eggs, bacon, sausage etc). The hotel manager was SOOOOOOO excited to be able to offer that.

Then we went to Ruby Tuesday for supper - they had a salad bar. I mean a real to goodness salad bar!

Masking is hit and miss.
Colorado no longer requires masks for fully vaccinated people, and Denver county has a high vaccination rate. I’ve stopped wearing a mask unless a particular location requires it.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top
Do Not Sell My Personal Information