News & Experiences continued

[MsZem]

Well there was a post there about why we would listen to a meteorologist talking about CV or something of that nature implying that we are all dumb to even listen to what he has to say.

If the standard is that you need to be occupationally qualified to post on stuff around here, no one should post about Figure skating except for skaters, technical controllers, coaches and judges.

And I, and many others, wouldn't find that helpful or fun.

Oh, that. I thought you took issue with my posts, which were basically that if one is making dire predictions, they should be backed up by something.

Anyway, I am extremely qualified to comment on figure skating given years of spectating and my exciting ability to do crossovers. And I thought the story about perks and special vaccination sites in Israel was pretty fun! I wonder if some people pick their spot based on whether they'd rather have pizza or hummus

 

[jeffisjeff]

Well there was a post there about why we would listen to a meteorologist talking about CV or something of that nature implying that we are all dumb to even listen to what he has to say.

Quoting is not hard! What I actually said is "I am not sure why you would let someone who, AFAIK, is trained as a meteorologist get you worried. Listen to the MDs, epidemiologists, public health officials, etc., instead."

If people want to listen to what a non-expert says, great. But should you let what they say get you worried or stressed out? I'd hope not! I'd hope people would first go listen to the experts for information before getting worried.

 

[skategal]

Oh, that. I thought you took issue with my posts, which were basically that if one is making dire predictions, they should be backed up by something.

Anyway, I am extremely qualified to comment on figure skating given years of spectating and my exciting ability to do crossovers.

No. You're good!

I just don't like discourse being discouraged.

I am equally qualified to comment on Figure Skating.

 

[skategal]

Quoting is not hard! What I actually said is "I am not sure why you would let someone who, AFAIK, is trained as a meteorologist get you worried. Listen to the MDs, epidemiologists, public health officials, etc., instead."

If people want to listen to what a non-expert says, great. But should you let what they say get you worried or stressed out? I'd hope not! I'd hope people would first go listen to the experts for information before getting worried.

You left off the part about being "tired of amateur experts" which indicates to me that you think amateurs don't have a right to speak on topics here.

 

[jeffisjeff]

You left off the part about being "tired of amateur experts" which indicates to me that you think amateurs don't have a right to speak on topics here.

As you can see from what you quoted, I am not tired of amateurs but of amateur experts. Also, being tired of something doesn't mean that I want to prohibit certain folks from posting. That isn't my job!

 

[skategal]

As you can see from what you quoted, I am not tired of amateurs but of amateur experts. Also, being tired of something doesn't mean that I want to prohibit certain folks from posting. That isn't my job!

It was a post meant to discourage @FGRSK8 from posting and it seems to have had the desired effect as he has said he is done now.

I don't like that.

 

[jeffisjeff]

It was a post meant to discourage @FGRSK8 from posting and it seems to have had the desired effect as he has said he is done now.

I don't like that.

My post expressed my dislike for a certain type of post (secretive personal theories from non-experts meant to raise concern). I am allowed to express an opinion as much as anyone. If FGRSK8 decides to stop posting just because I expressed an opinion, that is his choice. Don't blame me, blame him!

 

[Erin]

It was a post meant to discourage @FGRSK8 from posting and it seems to have had the desired effect as he has said he is done now.

I don't like that.

Well, I took it as a post meant to discourage people from needlessly worrying, not a post to discourage discourse, especially since I wouldn't even consider the post it was critical of to be discourse in the first place. I think that we have a lot of people on this board who have high levels of anxiety and I don't think that vagueposting, as Zemgirl so eloquently described it, is particularly helpful to them. Personally, I think the criticism was pretty mild and I also think the poster in question has made statements like that before and returned within a few days, so I'll take that with a grain of salt.

 

[Miezekatze]

Instead of harping on FGRSK8 , maybe let's just agree that the original post was worded unfortunately.

The mutation concern is certainly valid but I think governments, countries, scientists and vaccine producers are already strongly aware of it and behind it.

 

[skategal]

My post expressed my dislike for a certain type of post (secretive personal theories from non-experts meant to raise concern).

You called him out specifically in your post as someone who is merely a meteorologist.

That is not referencing a certain type of post.

That is referencing him.

And went on to say your dislike of amateur experts during the CV.

Also a reference to him.

I agree that it is on him if he stops posting. But you did target him in your post.

 

[Dobre]

Still taking any states that see falling numbers this week with a grain of salt due to winter weather . . .

Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arkansas, and Arizona all moved down from red to orange today. (Based on last week's numbers, I thought chances were good that Pennsylvania & New Hampshire would move down).

Washington & Wyoming moved back up from yellow to orange. (Which isn't unexpected, though both states remain close to yellow territory).

Nebraska is back in orange today.

States now still in red but close to orange with numbers in the high 20s, between 25 & 29 cases per 100K: Mississippi, Tennessee, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Utah, Texas.
(Mississippi, in particular, has been close to orange for a while. Seems like that trio of states--Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas--are seeing numbers fall together & hopefully this is a good sign. Connecticut & Massachusetts had numbers drop into the 20s yesterday so it's two days in a row for those).

I do want to add a that the West Coast is now all out of the red zone. Based on last week's trajectory & the fact that California--at least the well populated part of it--has been mostly out of the winter storm/snow forecasts, I think they are legitimately in orange.

This is already happening to an extent. I can't remember the name of the place, it's late here, but there's a city/region in I think Brazil?

Manaus. Therefore, we know people can catch the Brazilian variant after having the original. (This is pretty much the whole reason we are tracking the Brazilian variant, I think?)


At this point, we're almost a year out. I feel like most people have assumed that natural immunity was only likely to last about a year? Therefore, if secondary cases start to become more common, I think one would have to be careful to clarify whether people were catching the ***** again because of a variant or because immunity is wearing off. I assume scientists are monitoring areas like Northern Italy and Queens, NY in case more second cases start developing.

 

[ilovesalchows]

The herd immunity claim in Manaus was likely over stated, so I hear. I am choosing to believe that to avoid severe depression.

 

[sk8nlizard]

Still taking any states that see falling numbers this week with a grain of salt due to winter weather . . .

Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arkansas, and Arizona all moved down from red to orange today. (Based on last week's numbers, I thought chances were good that Pennsylvania & New Hampshire would move down).

Washington & Wyoming moved back up from yellow to orange. (Which isn't unexpected, though both states remain close to yellow territory).

Nebraska is back in orange today.

States now still in red but close to orange with numbers in the high 20s, between 25 & 29 cases per 100K: Mississippi, Tennessee, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Utah, Texas.
(Mississippi, in particular, has been close to orange for a while. Seems like that trio of states--Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas--are seeing numbers fall together & hopefully this is a good sign. Connecticut & Massachusetts had numbers drop into the 20s yesterday so it's two days in a row for those).

I do want to add a that the West Coast is now all out of the red zone. Based on last week's trajectory & the fact that California--at least the well populated part of it--has been mostly out of the winter storm/snow forecasts, I think they are legitimately in orange.


Manaus. Therefore, we know people can catch the Brazilian variant after having the original. (This is pretty much the whole reason we are tracking the Brazilian variant, I think?)


At this point, we're almost a year out. I feel like most people have assumed that natural immunity was only likely to last about a year? Therefore, if secondary cases start to become more common, I think one would have to be careful to clarify whether people were catching the ***** again because of a variant or because immunity is wearing off. I assume scientists are monitoring areas like Northern Italy and Queens, NY in case more second cases start developing.

I expect that Texas will go way up next week. Most of the testing centers around me are closed and I would imagine that unless you are seriously ill you would not risk going out in this weather for testing/treatment. That said, I do think things are certainly better than the were a few weeks ago even if these numbers aren’t correct.
Even if there is about to be another surge due to variants, and honestly I think it could go either way. Most doctors I’ve spoken to agree that the variants COULD cause a large uptick in cases and the also don’t really have a total understanding of why cases are falling so rapidly. But even if this is a lull, I am happy for it, it gives healthcare workers a bit of a breather as well as more time to get vaccinated. That’s a win in my book!

 

[PRlady]

This article is pretty significant: https://www.washingtonpost.com/road-to-recovery/2021/02/17/unemployed-workers-retraining/

I buy my cat stuff from Chewy and of course never think about whether a human or robot packed the box. I DO know that business travelers subsidize the leisure travelers so I worry that airplane costs are going to go way up.

But I also see some upsides. In a city in which there's not a lot of low-cost, centralized housing, turning some of those office buildings downtown into mixed use or residences might alleviate some of the problem. Except for high-end restaurants, serving is generally not a career and I'm hoping there's another route to low-paid work for young people trying to break into other fields. And frankly, a world without brand ambassadors is a better world, how that got to be a job in the first place just kills me.

 

[MsZem]

A second Israeli HMO has released findings replicating Pfizer's trial results

Fauci hails Israel's vaccine rollout as HMO reports 95 percent effectiveness

***

www.haaretz.com

Replaced the original link, this one is a bit more detailed.

 

[Dobre]

I expect that Texas will go way up next week.

Texas, Utah, Arizona, and Arkansas could all easily go up tomorrow. Today's numbers for all of them are a significant drop from just yesterday.

That said, we know that Louisiana, Missouri, & New Mexico were in orange last week. California was right on the cusp & is probably legitimately orange. This is a good sign for the Southwest. As of yesterday, Utah & Arizona were surrounded by states in orange. West Virginia was also on the cusp last week & is likely legitimately orange. If Alabama is legitimately orange, which it well could be, that's a really good sign for Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas. It's obvious that improved numbers in one state can help improve the numbers in neighboring states.

(Often what I see is that the states with mask mandates & stronger safety measures, as well as states where infection numbers have been suppressed from the very beginning of the *********, drop down to orange or yellow first within a region, and then those neighboring states with fewer restrictions shift later. Not always, but often).

 

[Prancer]

We’ve been cooped up with our families for almost a year. This is the result.​

The data shows Americans gained far more free time and used it to care for children while exercising and working more. But they also devoted a massive amount of time to watching more television. At the same time, many relationships are facing strain from the stress of concurrent economic and public-health disasters. And the ********* appears to have been particularly tough on the happiness of singles, especially women, research suggests.

 

[SkateSand]

I finally got my first vaccine dose of the Moderna vaccine today. They said to arrive fifteen minutes early to complete paperwork so I did. They came out to your parked car and gave you the paperwork to complete, then came back later to bring you inside. There were about ten of us at a time, seated about six feet from each other in a semi-circle. We watched a video presentation and then two nurses started giving the vaccine, each of them starting from an end of the semi-circle. The nurses answered questions and explained expected symptoms. Then we watched another video presentation while we waited the fifteen minutes for an allergic reaction. We also got set appointments for our second dose. Easy-peasy!

 

[acraven]

Rats. We didn't get a movie to watch during the post-vaccination waiting period! Nor were we bribed with food as they're now doing in Israel. Wuzrobbed.

 

[Dobre]

Vaccinations are back up today in Oregon: 15,000+.

Vaccines shipments are still reportedly delayed so this could be either backlog from last weekend or some shipments coming through while others have not yet. The state reported 473 new cases, which is--by all means--not great but I think is at least as good as where we were at this point last week. Considering that weekend numbers were much lower that the previous week, this is good. We may still have a spike as more tests come back following the storm, but I think this is a good number following 2 days of good weather. We'll see what happens the next couple days.

Hospitalizations continue to go down. Deaths are also lower. We had a big 2-day spike in deaths announced last week, and a bunch of them were reportedly from January. The pessimist in me thinks this is due to the sudden "change in policy" back in January where the state wasn't going to announce individual deaths and was just going to count them. Then there was push back & individual cases went back to being announced. Then several weeks later, suddenly we have a bunch of January deaths announced. Which makes perfect sense, except that as far as I can tell they are being counted for the first time. Which shouldn't have been the case if they were actually counted back in January. So . . . et hem . . . I think this is exactly why the state should have received push back & individual deaths need to be announced.

My county still seems to be making good progress with vaccinations. My mom's county still doesn't seem to have any vaccine for seniors. Mom & Dad are prepared to drive to the larger county in their health district if there still isn't any vaccine in their own county when the state reaches their tiers. Unfortunately there is not a phone number to call in that larger county--just an e-mail list being kept--so I really hope my parents are contacted next week.

 

[AJ Skatefan]

I finally got my first vaccine dose of the Moderna vaccine today. They said to arrive fifteen minutes early to complete paperwork so I did. They came out to your parked car and gave you the paperwork to complete, then came back later to bring you inside. There were about ten of us at a time, seated about six feet from each other in a semi-circle. We watched a video presentation and then two nurses started giving the vaccine, each of them starting from an end of the semi-circle. The nurses answered questions and explained expected symptoms. Then we watched another video presentation while we waited the fifteen minutes for an allergic reaction. We also got set appointments for our second dose. Easy-peasy!

I didn’t get a movie! I wuz robbed!

 

[Susan1]

I should just wait till this guy who always asks a question during the briefing publishes his notes!

No plan to punish schools breaking vaccine bargain, DeWine says

Feb. 16—COLUMBUS — While expressing disappointment with a handful of Ohio's K-12 schools not living up to their end of the ******** vaccine deal, Gov. Mike DeWine said Tuesday there are no plans to punish the virtual stragglers. The governor noted that every school district in the state...

www.yahoo.com

Funny that it made Yahoo News and the headline "No plan to punish schools breaking vaccine bargain, DeWine says". I wondered why have a contract then.

 

[SkateSand]

My husband didn't get the video presentation when he got his first dose, either. However, his second dose is scheduled this weekend at the same clinic that I got my first dose at today so maybe he will get a video this time.

Ironically, after not hearing back from people when he tried to schedule his second dose, he got two telephone messages today: one of them asking him if he wanted to come in today at 3:00 p.m. at the same clinic he had his first dose (we picked up the message too late), and the second message was letting him know about a clinic in the city on Saturday for second doses, first come, first serve (I guess the alphabetical order thing wasn't working out too great for them ). He's going to stick with his set appointment at our local clinic up the road. Either they just received a decent number of vaccines or they are getting better organized. I'm sure it's due to my Tweet to Newsom whining that he needed to get more vaccines to my county.

 

[Orm Irian]

Tegan Taylor and Norman Swan looked at the marked drop in both case numbers and deaths on today's episode of Coronacast and noted that this drop was actually predicted back in late 2020, without vaccine impacts being included in the models. The suggestion is that it's at least in part a seasonal effect, with the lurgi in the northern hemisphere having hit its winter transmission peak and started to decline naturally - though helped along by increased social distancing measures and shutdowns. The decline in death follows the decline in overall case numbers and shows the impact of improved treatment regimes that are now available. Vaccination programs are too new to be having such a strong impact yet, they say (though those impacts will start showing up in the coming months). As always, a problem is that numbers of variant cases are still rising while numbers of overall and wildtype cases are declining, so we could still be looking at variant surges when countries start to relax restrictions again, particularly around schools.

 

[Dobre]

I was just glad to be able to stay in my car during my appointment.

Either they just received a decent number of vaccines or they are getting better organized.

Could be both. Could also be that the state saw the same data comparison that you did & it took about a week to respond. The administration/country sent out 2 million more vaccine doses this week compared to last. I hope this means some will be sent to the clinic in my parents' county. for getting your first dose!

The decline in death follows the decline in overall case numbers and shows the impact of improved treatment regimes that are now available. Vaccination programs are too new to be having such a strong impact yet, they say (though those impacts will start showing up in the coming months).

On the plus side, nursing home residents should start reaching immunity. I'm curious what percentage of deaths come from nursing homes. I think it could be quite a chunk of the death rate in my state. Maybe at least a quarter of deaths seem to be people over 80?

 

[SkateSand]

We were told by our local health department that every single nursing home and assisted living facility in our county had CV deaths. They listed the facilities and how many CV deaths occurred at each one. One of them had over 100 deaths. We've had a total of 171 CV deaths in our county so clearly most of the deaths were from these facilities, and over half from one facility alone. Huge fail.

 

[canbelto]

They say Pfizer and Moderna protect against the variants. Yay.

 

[skatingguy]

"Health Canada continues to work with AstraZeneca to receive the information needed to complete its review," said Kathleen Marriner, a spokeswoman for the department.

Health Canada not ready yet to greenlight AstraZeneca vaccine

Health Canada is not yet ready to make a decision about approving the *********-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca, more than two weeks after it signalled the ruling could be imminent.

tinyurl.com

 

[Miezekatze]

I was just glad to be able to stay in my car during my appointment.


Could be both. Could also be that the state saw the same data comparison that you did & it took about a week to respond. The administration/country sent out 2 million more vaccine doses this week compared to last. I hope this means some will be sent to the clinic in my parents' county. for getting your first dose!

On the plus side, nursing home residents should start reaching immunity. I'm curious what percentage of deaths come from nursing homes. I think it could be quite a chunk of the death rate in my state. Maybe at least a quarter of deaths seem to be people over 80?

Here in my German state 40 % of *********-19 deaths over this winter were nursing home residents

 

[misskarne]

New South Wales and Queensland will start vaccinating front-line health care and quarantine workers from Monday.

ACT also on Monday, starting with quarantine and aged care workers and residents.