News & Experiences continued

MsZem

Well-Known Member
Messages
16,488
I think it's clear at this point that (1) lockdowns work when you need to put on the breaks fast (2) having to lock down is a failure (3) on and off lockdowns are not a sustainable way to deal with CoV-19 (4) countries need to figure out how to reopen successfully.

Having seen quite a few episodes of Air Crash Investigation, all this reminds me of phugoid cycles in planes that are out of control: the aircraft stalls going up, pitches down and descends until it picks up speed, then starts climbing again and stalls, over and over. Here we have cases going up until governments and people freak and start taking measures (some of them voluntary) to get the infection rate under control. Then cases go down, everyone is less cautious, cases go back up, and so on.

In an aircraft, all this can end with a flight crashing into a mountain, or the flight crew getting things more or less under control. Let's hope for the latter.
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
16,144
Simple suggestion. People are free to decline to follow their local health department orders, but if they contract C0VID they have forfeited their right to medical treatment. And if contact tracing shows they spread it to others, they are responsible for any medical costs not covered by that person’s insurance.

Make your choice but take responsibility for your actions.

I'm generally OK with this, but I think it's impossible to prove who has spread to whom.

Can I ask where you are getting that statistic? I wasn't able to get any suicide statistics in the UK for 2020 online when I searched.

Yes, these numbers are not being reported (hmmmm), but I can extrapolate from ones that were published this week: London Ambulance service is getting 37 suicide calls per day, compared to 22 per day in previous years.

The number of people thinking about suicide in the UK increased 20% during the p*ndemic compared to periods prior to the p*ndemic in a longitudinal study. 14% of young adults are having suicidal thoughts:

25 children have committed suicide during the p*ndemic (as of July), with c*vid a key factor in half. Depending on source, only 5-8 children died of c*vid in the same period, and all but one were profoundly ill. It's highly likely more children are committing suicide out of despair from v*rus restrictions than are being killed by the v*rus. (This is one, among many, arguments for keeping schools open.)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/********-uk-child-suicide-mental-health-nhs-a9617671.html
 

once_upon

Vaccinated
Messages
19,363
I know FSU skews towards many people who were sharing that they were donating stimulus money and/or set financially, but it's not the case for so many people. Even tech start-ups and smaller office jobs are getting hit- not just tourism/restaurants/bars or that nature. Anything in the arts right now is basically DOA, too.
Yeah - anything in entertainment is pretty much DOA. From things like conceet/tours which includes the roadies, set creators, sound personnel, long haul truckers but locals like food service providers, cooks, environmental staff, ushers, local bars, hotels, security staff. Sports venues, TV shows. Movies which have a lot of people employed that you don't think about.

The local costume shop closed last month. The majority of their business of course is Halloween but also the local playhouses, school plays, costume or themed parties. They were on a pretty lean bottom line as it was last year but an established long time business.

Even when cruising is allowed again, as I understand it, they will be at least a 4 week lead time to hire/train/quarantine staff before any cruises set sail. I suspect it will be the same once air traffic ramps up - rehire, retrain staff.

The struggling actors/dancers/back up singers etc rely on wait staff jobs which are sparse.

Venues - which hold wedding, graduation parties, burthday/anniversary celebrations - have been closing. As have catering services.

I predict church closings and/or a move to unpaid lay leaders. Pastors maybe amongst the unemployed soon.

This is one of the economic things that does trickles down-actually rushes down once the dam breaks. I said early on, we had an economy built on consumerism (which includes entertainment, tourism). Any major world wide event - like a ********* - was going to collapse the house of cards. Especially when that house of cards is built on the use of credit cards not cash.

Its sad, devastating, and beyond comprehension but we were probably due for an economic reset. Its a billion times worse that we have a huge loss of life too.
 

allezfred

Lipinski Stole My Catchphrase
Staff member
Messages
59,795
Yes, these numbers are not being reported (hmmmm), but I can extrapolate from ones that were published this week: London Ambulance service is getting 37 suicide calls per day, compared to 22 per day in previous years.
So you’re making up your own figures to suit your arguments. That’s really irresponsible to put things like that out there particularly at a time like this. :blah:
 

rfisher

Let the skating begin
Messages
68,206
You know, governments can say open everything up! Party on! Just don't plan to go to a hospital when you get sick or injured. Sorry, we're all full, half our staff are out sick and we don't have any more PPE. Sucks to be you. Hope you enjoyed the party. We're rationing health care now and the only people who get it are those who are fully insured. Not you? You lost your insurance because of a silly preexisting condition? That's too bad. Now, move out of the way so we can take care of this nice man waving his insurance card.
 

Theatregirl1122

Needs a nap
Messages
25,361
I don’t get where the idea of Biden shutting everything down again is coming from. That’s not a proposal he’s making. He’s said he’ll do what the scientists believe is right, but full scale shut down nationally doesn’t seem to be what they are suggesting. I don’t get the point of criticizing Biden for policy proposals he has not made. It’s a strawman argument.
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
16,144
So you’re making up your own figures to suit your arguments. That’s really irresponsible to put things like that out there particularly at a time like this. :blah:

It's irresponsible not to be reporting. It's a fact suicide calls are up 70% (OK, 68%) in London. It's a fact more people are reporting suicidal thoughts than ever before, a roughly 20% increase. It's a fact 1 in 7 people aged 18-29 in the UK are reporting suicidal thoughts. Nothing made up about those numbers.

Should we just ignore suicides because it takes the government a year to report the data, versus a day with *********? What a Trumpian argument from you - just don't report the data and we'll be fine. :rolleyes:

We have to stop making decisions based entirely on what data is convenient (cases! cases! cases! reported hourly, at the expense of everything else) and look at the holistic picture. We cannot just ignore "missing data" like suicide statistics, deaths from delayed treatments for other factors, etc. We must do our best to estimate it. And based on what I'm seeing, suicides are likely to be somewhere between 20-70% higher based on all available data. That is just one impact of continued lockdown.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
4,426
I agree with every single thing every single person has written here (it's easier that way) but I want to point out, as someone who lives about 40 miles outside of New York City in a county that was hard hit by CV19, that NYS went into a hard lockdown (which we still have not fully emerged from) and the hospital (and especially fatality) rates plummeted and are still far lower than they were this spring.

Garden shops were allowed to open in early May, so I use that as an indication of when things started to improve. June-August were what I called the CV Vacation. Things spiked a bit because of the Jewish holidays, but yesterday's positivity rate in my county was under 3%, compared to May 1 with a positivity rate of just under 19%.

I have no illusions that things are going to get better in the U.S. in the foreseeable future. Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's guarantee (in my eyes) that the numbers we think are awful today are going to seem like nothing by mid-January. Lockdowns aren't going to work during the holidays. I'd be surprised if there's a blue state governor who thinks they will (red state governors obviously don't care).

But what we're doing now is buying time. Time for hospitals and medical staffs to prepare for the onslaught. Time to get the country closer to viable widespread vaccines. Time, which we've already seen with the lowering of death rates, to learn how to keep some extremely ill people alive. Time to learn why some people are long haulers and what can be done to help them before their lives are completely destroyed.

Time is a commodity. It has to be paid for and it's not going to come cheap.
 

Theatregirl1122

Needs a nap
Messages
25,361
Simple suggestion. People are free to decline to follow their local health department orders, but if they contract C0VID they have forfeited their right to medical treatment. And if contact tracing shows they spread it to others, they are responsible for any medical costs not covered by that person’s insurance.

Make your choice but take responsibility for your actions.

Because those people will expose those of us that have no choice but to go out into the world like teachers, shop workers, restaurant employees, etc. Every time we go back to this it comes down to the same truth: no man is an island in this situation. If you choose to allow someone to ignore restrictions, they become a time bomb. They are a danger to themselves and others. And it doesn’t matter whose costs they pay if that person does, loses a limb, or has lifelong breathing problems

You know, governments can say open everything up! Party on! Just don't plan to go to a hospital when you get sick or injured. Sorry, we're all full, half our staff are out sick and we don't have any more PPE. Sucks to be you. Hope you enjoyed the party. We're rationing health care now and the only people who get it are those who are fully insured. Not you? You lost your insurance because of a silly preexisting condition? That's too bad. Now, move out of the way so we can take care of this nice man waving his insurance card.

Ah, Louis’s dream scenario.


@Dobre , I don’t deny that there are places where there is spread in schools, but in our schools in my area on the hybrid plan with more than 6 feet of space between children and masks at all time, the contact tracing is being done. This is not similar to pools, restaurants, etc. they do all the contact tracing and can’t find connected cases. If someone is positive, they notify the school, everyone who has been anywhere near them is quarantined, but no further cases have come so far in any school in the state from those in school contacts. Which tells me right now that we are doing okay on this model.

Aside from the fact that everyone is burnt out and miserable and failing.
 

once_upon

Vaccinated
Messages
19,363
I've tried to find stats for suicide - actual facts not supposition.

In 2017, 800,000 deaths globally were attributed to suicides. Although suicide can be and probably is underreported.


2020 suicide deaths are not likely to be reported globally until at least late 2021 or first quarter 2022

To date 1.19 million deaths have been recorded for C-19 since Jan 6, 2020.

Until we have actual data on suicides in 2019 and 2020 we will not be able to compare any increases in suicide and even that must be careful not to attribute that increase solely on C-19. As a review of suicide rates from 1999 to 2917 was an increase of ~32% in the US. The biggest increase occurred in 2006

This article addresses the increase in suicide after the Spanish Flu ********* and does have a small discussion on concerns regarding suicide and C-19. In addition they go on to discuss contributing factors in suicide such as chronic pain, PTSD, etc and state it will be unknown what the effect of pain post infection and post ICU PTSD will have on any increase in suicide


YMMV. If I've interpreted incorrectly please let me know how you read it
 

allezfred

Lipinski Stole My Catchphrase
Staff member
Messages
59,795
It's irresponsible not to be reporting. It's a fact suicide calls are up 70% (OK, 68%) in London. It's a fact more people are reporting suicidal thoughts than ever before, a roughly 20% increase. It's a fact 1 in 7 people aged 18-29 in the UK are reporting suicidal thoughts. Nothing made up about those numbers.

Should we just ignore suicides because it takes the government a year to report the data, versus a day with *********? What a Trumpian argument from you - just don't report the data and we'll be fine. :rolleyes:

We have to stop making decisions based entirely on what data is convenient (cases! cases! cases! reported hourly, at the expense of everything else) and look at the holistic picture. We cannot just ignore "missing data" like suicide statistics, deaths from delayed treatments for other factors, etc. We must do our best to estimate it. And based on what I'm seeing, suicides are likely to be somewhere between 20-70% higher based on all available data. That is just one impact of continued lockdown.
YOU ARE NOT AN EXPERT ON SUICIDE AND MENTAL HEALTH. PERIOD.
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
16,144
We don’t have time to wait for suicide statistics or statistics of people dying from missed treatments or anything else. We must treat all deaths with the same urgency. During the first wave, where the death rate of C19 was much higher, studies showed lockdown was likely to have killed two people for every three it saved. With the C19 death rate now much lower, lockdown is quite likely killing more people than it’s saving.

Why do people have no problem believing far-fetched projections from Neil Ferguson and others, but stick their heads in the sand re: lockdown-induced deaths?
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Messages
43,104
What's with kids grabbing a handful of candy out of bowl?
I make kids do that once the night is half over and I know I bought too much candy. :D

Though no kids come here anyway so it's moot.

Among my family and friends, nearly all have worked continuously throughout this. Some who would usually go to an office or other facility are working from home, but others are not, and they're not healthcare workers or other frontline service people either.
We were told that technically we are "essential workers" because of some of the contracts we have. We were told that if we have to go to the office, we can use that. But not to go to the office unless we had to and to stay working at home. I am sure there are companies who took advantage of this technicality.

I also know this will make plenty of people here :shuffle: but I know many, many people who voted for Biden but absolutely cannot stand the thought of him shutting everything down again and think it's the worst thing to do. Again- that could be because of the lack of money coming in and no clear answer on if there will be more or when.
If Biden did shut everything down, he's make sure there was money to mitigate the damages. Because he's not a dumpster fire.

I don't think he'll do that though because the country is too big to have every part of it in the same place when it comes to C19. But I think what he'll do is come up with national standards and guidance and also invoke the Defense Act to get more PPE and testing supplies. IOW, follow the plans that Trump threw away.

It's a fact suicide calls are up 70% (OK, 68%) in London.
No, it is not. It's a fact that one ambulance company reported more calls in one period compared to another. That's it. We have no idea what is going on with other companies and other parts of the city let alone the entire UK.

And you know this. You crunch data for a living.
 

Prancer

Professional Spuddler
Staff member
Messages
51,833
Yes, WHAT IS THE LONG-TERM PLAN? The first lockdown failed. So let's try a second one. :rolleyes:
Did the first lockdown fail?

What is your standard of failure?

My understanding, which could, of course, be wrong, is that we have collectively decided to engage in The Dance, which means that we will lockdown, open gradually, back up when cases rise, open again, etc. Except that, because people refuse to do things before they are too obvious to be ignored, we keep opening up too fast and backing up too late, and so we have lockdowns because we fail to control spikes before they occur.

It's irresponsible not to be reporting. It's a fact suicide calls are up 70% (OK, 68%) in London. It's a fact more people are reporting suicidal thoughts than ever before, a roughly 20% increase. It's a fact 1 in 7 people aged 18-29 in the UK are reporting suicidal thoughts. Nothing made up about those numbers.
And is this specifically because of lockdowns? Could the fact that we are in a ********* be a factor?

Why do people have no problem believing far-fetched projections from Neil Ferguson and others, but stick their heads in the sand re: lockdown-induced deaths?
I would guess for the same reason that people insist on ignoring the fact the Neil Ferguson and others predicted a range of possiblities but focus only on the highest (and most improbable) figures in order to dismiss the rest, including the fact that Neil Ferguson under oath testified that his expectations for actual deaths expected in the UK is far, far lower than the reality that has come about--because it suits their purpose.
 

once_upon

Vaccinated
Messages
19,363
No, it is not. It's a fact that one ambulance company reported more calls in one period compared to another. That's it. We have no idea what is going on with other companies and other parts of the city let alone the entire UK.
Other unknown in this scenario of more calls

1. How much did the emphasis on calling for help or talk to someone, make it more acceptable to call? Especially during suicide awareness campaigns. I know about every 4-6 weeks my Facebook page is filled with posts about how to get help and list of numbers to call. When you make calling for help acceptable you will see increase in calls.

2. How many suicides were prevented by calls to hot lines and referrals to appropriate treatment options?

3. How many new lines were added this year? When I was a freshman in college a new suicide hot line was established. One could say that calls to the hot line increased 100% that year.

There are too many unknowns, uncertain "dara" gathering to make any preliminary conclusions.
 

Susan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,248
That's why we always saved the Junior Mints and Butterfingers till last. Too much candy, no more kids. Oops! Somebody has to eat them. :)
Well, geez - after I wrote that I was wondering why I was hearing so many car doors. I even turned my music off to listen. Then I looked. I forgot. There are cars parked up and down the street. And bunches of adults with one or two kids - nary a mask in sight - going up and down this street. Did the trumpers drive their kids to a nicer neighborhood? The house across the street is for sale and vacant. The house next door is vacant and for rent. There is only one house of the four in the cul-de-sac across from me with their light on. Sorry - not. I can't tell if the "trump truck" house is giving out candy. I'll have to wait till it gets dark. Then I was thinking - I hope all the people with Biden signs everywhere brought them in for the night.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
4,426
One reason why things are going to get worse is people can no longer be sure how they got it.

“It’s just kind of everywhere,” said Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who estimated that tracing ******** cases becomes difficult once the ***** spreads to more than 10 cases per 100,000 people.

In some of the hardest-hit spots in the United States, the ***** is spreading at 10 to 20 times that rate, and even health officials have all but given up trying to figure out who is giving the ***** to whom.
 

sk8pics

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,900
I forgot to say earlier, when I was working at the shelter vaccine clinic today, they were collecting pens that had been used in a little pail and they were labeled as dirty. So they had to sanitize them. You might think they would wipe each one down carefully with a wipe. You would be incorrect. One of the techs would squirt some hand sanitizer in her palm and then pick up a pen and run it over the hand sanitizer blob in her palm for approximately 1.5 seconds. I am not sure that is really doing the job, and it made me wonder how other places might be cleaning their common use pens. I made a mental note to always have my own pen.
 

PRlady

Well-Known Member
Messages
37,186
I note our supermarket was giving away four-packs of low-quality TP today. I can’t decide if they overstocked in anticipation of another lockdown or will make more money on Charmin if they get more to sell? (There’s none now.)

Meanwhile every third business in downtown D.C. and Georgetown has put the plywood back up in anticipation of post-election unrest.

We are so not done with the consequences of the ********* and the anger over it and the increased political polarisation. We will not be fine for years. We had better get used to it.
 

AJ Skatefan

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,666
I’ve been watching this guy’s videos and I think he has a very balanced view:

 

Prancer

Professional Spuddler
Staff member
Messages
51,833
I’ve been watching this guy’s videos and I think he has a very balanced view:

The "it's all a hoax" people on my Facebook feed used to post his videos all the time back in the spring when he was anti-lockdown and pretty skeptical of the whole *********, but he has mysteriously disappeared ever since the video where he slammed the "only 6% of people who have ********* listed on their death certificates have actually died of *********" story as stupidity run amok.
 

tony

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,160
Sorry, but "I'm bored" isn't an argument I would accept out of a 5 year old. Why should I accept it from a (supposedly) grown adult?
As has already been discussed by other posters on the thread, when you have no job or a job that has drastically reduced hours and you either take unemployment which is down to next to nothing or you work the job and make next to no money, there is a mental aspect that comes into play, too, when you are sitting around feeling hopeless all day. Again, this is FSU we are dealing with that skews older and skews more introverted people that have either successfully kept the jobs they've had or haven't needed to worry about money this time. Ask the younger crowds how they are doing.

@Jenny brought up several great points: think about the people that just got through college or are in their mid-20's and really haven't had any time to build up a savings and are now either not finding any work or having to move back in with their parents. A ton of people have fled the big cities (and their rents and mortgages) because they simply cannot keep up. $275 a week may go a fair ways in the middle of nowhere, but not everywhere. I'm sure the people who are more educated and having to go through this are completely embarrassed and probably are internalizing it as their faults in some way. I mean, I had a very well-paying job for the last 5 years that came to a complete shutdown for 6 months and even I felt personally stupid that there was no real stepping stone to something else immediately that would pay well enough to keep up with my expenses. I have a savings and I haven't been hit, but imagine where those people are that now have nothing after having saved up as much as they could, and now they don't even know when they will be able to get a new job within their fields.

I remember the attitudes in March and April from some of you were very 'you better not dare step foot outside your house'. It was pointed out that the US was never completely shut down nor did any government within the US anywhere say to do that, but to just be smart about it and follow precautions and restrictions. Some of you have even shifted your own attitudes into becoming more daring by way of going out to eat or meeting with friends or whatever. If you've sat inside your home for the last 7 months and not physically interacted with anyone in the outside world-- congratulations? But everyone has 'gotten bored' to an extent.
 

ballettmaus

Well-Known Member
Messages
16,816
We had as busy a Halloween as ever. My mom packed little treat bags and we had a table out and the bags out on them, the neighbors had done the same, the ones across the street had buckets out. Every single kid wore masks, 99% of the adults did, too and those who had put out the candy either wore masks or stood/sat in their open garages, far away from the treat table/bucket.
According to our friend who went trick or treating with her kids, it was like that throughout the neighborhood.

Even though it wasn't normal, it sort of felt the most normal in a long time (and it was also great to not have to worry about politics for a few hours).


I don't think lockdowns are really as effective as many people are trying to push. During our first 'stay home' instance in America, I know tons of people who were carrying on with their lives as if nothing happened.

People not complying doesn't mean that something isn't effective. It just means that people aren't complying and that it's not effective don't. Then again, I'm not aware of anything that is effective when people don't comply (e.g. firealarms only work if people leave the building when there's an alarm, seatbelts only work when people put them on, red lights only work when people stop at them etc).
New Zealand has shown us that lockdowns are effective.
 

tony

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,160
People not complying doesn't mean that something isn't effective. It just means that people aren't complying and that it's not effective don't. Then again, I'm not aware of anything that is effective when people don't comply (e.g. firealarms only work if people leave the building when there's an alarm, seatbelts only work when people put them on, red lights only work when people stop at them etc).
New Zealand has shown us that lockdowns are effective.
It drops down the numbers for the time being, absolutely. But when you have a lockdown and you still have people going about things as normal, then when lockdown is lifted, the chances are still there for everything to start back up. When you don't shut down the US borders and you have people coming here to tourist cities that have looser restrictions (if any at all), you are risking everything starting back up. When you have people hopping from city to city where one is still mostly closed and the other is completely open- what good is that? It takes one person to blow this whole thing up again.

So yes, lockdowns are good in slowing the numbers for X amount of time. But we saw from the first go-around that immediately following the quarantines or moving from level to level or whichever method you want to quantify it by, numbers were immediately rising from that point but many states pushed to get businesses back open. We've known the numbers were rising for months. We've known the hospitals in some areas have been completely overwhelmed this entire time. So, these countries go into lockdown for 4 weeks. Then what? The same pattern of starting this shit all over again? It doesn't make sense and it's extending the time in which we see more spikes.
 

Prancer

Professional Spuddler
Staff member
Messages
51,833
studies showed lockdown was likely to have killed two people for every three it saved
So I've been looking for these studies (because I find such a claim quite shocking and can't imagine what sort of data led to this conclusion) and I can't find any that say this. Can you cite, please?
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
16,144
I mean, I had a very well-paying job for the last 5 years that came to a complete shutdown for 6 months and even I felt personally stupid that there was no real stepping stone to something else immediately that would pay well enough to keep up with my expenses. I have a savings and I haven't been hit, but imagine where those people are that now have nothing after having saved up as much as they could, and now they don't even know when they will be able to get a new job within their fields.

Exactly. Bar and restaurant workers. Flight attendants. Entertainment industry. People in these industries will be without work for 2-3 years or more. For some, a career of 20+ years will be over, and they'll have little qualification to do anything beyond minimum wage jobs.

I'm breaking my quarantine a day early to go see my friend, a (former) flight attendant, who on top of losing his career, is being deported on Monday. What am I supposed to tell people like him?

I think it's past time for a "work from home" surcharge tax. I don't think people on this board understand what it feels like to be targeted by random and indiscriminate restrictions. Let's add a 20% payroll tax to anyone who works from home (simulating what many furloughed workers have to deal with), and then let's see what attitudes are like. If they're the same, I'll respect that and eat my words.

People not complying doesn't mean that something isn't effective. It just means that people aren't complying and that it's not effective don't. Then again, I'm not aware of anything that is effective when people don't comply (e.g. firealarms only work if people leave the building when there's an alarm, seatbelts only work when people put them on, red lights only work when people stop at them etc).
New Zealand has shown us that lockdowns are effective.

It's also the design of the lockdown.

The UK border is open, and quarantine is on the honor system.
UK schools and universities are staying open, despite being a significant proportion of the case spread.
Professional sports leagues and reality TV shows get to continue.

What is the logic behind this? Why do the restrictions apply to some and not all? What science or rationale is behind this? England is locking down, but Wales and Northern Ireland are coming out of circuit breaker lockdown. And Scotland is on a different system. So we also have the same porous land border situation as the U.S.

So I've been looking for these studies (because I find such a claim quite shocking and can't imagine what sort of data led to this conclusion) and I can't find any that say this. Can you cite, please?

I think we've discussed this before, but:
https://news.sky.com/story/********...ly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

You can click through the links to the actual paper.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top
Do Not Sell My Personal Information