News & Experiences continued

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,708
I would be more than glad to send him my spreadsheets. It spells the whole thing out in glorious detail.....

I was thinking about your spreadsheets last night.

Do you include potential variables, like the upcoming holidays, or are your numbers based on what has happened vs. what might happen.
 

FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,525
I was thinking about your spreadsheets last night.

Do you include potential variables, like the upcoming holidays, or are your numbers based on what has happened vs. what might happen.
The spreadsheets are based on daily numbers. I use moving average and smoothing algorithms to project forward. I ignore holidays and the weekly variations that occur between weekday and weekend reporting (some states and countries do not report on weekends).
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,708
The spreadsheets are based on daily numbers. I use moving average and smoothing algorithms to project forward. I ignore holidays and the weekly variations that occur between weekday and weekend reporting (some states and countries do not report on weekends).
Thank you.
 

MsZem

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,211
Two threads from Israeli scientist Eran Segal, one detailing how Israel got to a second lockdown and the second explaining why it seems to have worked faster than expected:
Our government's handling of the second reopening is a mess and not all segments of society are equally compliant, but we are in a much better place than we were during summer/early fall. Hopefully the steps being implemented in Europe will prove similarly effective, if not more so.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Messages
37,835
Remember the movie Soylent Green? And the ending where the guy runs out screaming: Soylent Green is People?

Well I just want to point out that: The economy is people. And dead people don't contribute to the economy.

Using terms like "the elderly" and people with 'co-morbidities' makes it seem like it's a bunch of folks in LTC facilities and nursing homes who aren't contributing to the economy. But I am "elderly" by C19's definition and I am still working FT. Even people in LTC contribute to the economy by buying stuff and creating jobs (that LTC facility is run by people too, not robots).

You can't kill off and injure a significant portion of your population and not tank your economy.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
Messages
57,352
Remember the movie Soylent Green? And the ending where the guy runs out screaming: Soylent Green is People?

Well I just want to point out that: The economy is people. And dead people don't contribute to the economy.

Using terms like "the elderly" and people with 'co-morbidities' makes it seem like it's a bunch of folks in LTC facilities and nursing homes who aren't contributing to the economy. But I am "elderly" by C19's definition and I am still working FT. Even people in LTC contribute to the economy by buying stuff and creating jobs (that LTC facility is run by people too, not robots).

You can't kill off and injure a significant portion of your population and not tank your economy.

I want to return to @Theatregirl1122's fantastic post for one quote:

As Yale University Epidemiologist said, "these herd immunity strategies are about culling the herd of the sick and disabled. It’s grotesque.”

People were tried at Nuremburg for such strategies.

ETA: I just want to be clear that I'm not calling anyone here a Nazi, though I am not at all sure about some of the people pushing "herd immunity."

Louis for instance I perceive as trying to apply Utilitarian ethics to the situation, to come up with the greatest good for the greatest number. While I don't subscribe to Utilitarian ethics myself, its a legitimate tradition. The problem here even if you do accept Utilitarianism is that it has not been shown that withdrawing restrictions and allowing more cases and deaths will lead to a situation where the increase in deaths from ********* will be less than the decrease in death from the impacts of the restrictions. We simply have not been presented with evidence of hundreds of thousands of deaths that could be prevented by lifting restrictions or ending lockdowns.

It is possible that at some point in the future, when we have even better treatments for *********, or in the US say we have expanded health insurance to cover those uninsured so they can get treatment AND perhaps longer term impacts of the restrictions are leading to increased death such as from suicides from long-term unemployment or business failures, we may re-evaluate. We should alway be re-evaluating. But right now, we don't have evidence to show that if we allow many more cases and the attendent deaths that the overall mortality rate will fall because there are more deaths caused by the restrictions. That evidence doesn't exist and policy makers can't make decisions just based on "well I think these restrictions are worse than *********."
 
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Susan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,847
I sat here and played Trizzle till 2:00; had to look

10/30/20
Cases - 212,782 / 24 hour reported - 3,845 (new high) / 7 day average - 2,223
Hospitalizations - 18,969 / 169 / 127
ICU - 3,841 / 25 / 20
Deaths - 5,291 / 16 / 14

Positivity - 10/28 - 48,532 tests (fifth highest on the line chart) - 7.0%
7 day moving average - 6.2%; total tests - 4401763

Hospital bed availability - 27.83%; ICU bed availability - 25.54%
Ohio is divided up by Zones and Regions in case smaller hospitals with spikes have to send patients to bigger hospitals.

Presumed recovered - 167,035
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,339
600 cases today in Oregon. Another new high.

And again, the governor eased requirements for more schools to open:wall:. The Portland area has over 150 cases today. Jackson County had 69. (I foresee the watch list in Jackson County's very near future). Don't know how long we are going to dawdle around about Portland. They are already Phase 1 and on the watchlist so Stay-at-Home is the next step for them. It could take a lot of cases for them to be moved down because there are so many people in the county; but we have a very low ratio of hospital beds per capita in the state. If Portland overfills, the other hospitals won't be able to hold their excess patients.

Meanwhile the owner of my local grocery store refuses to wear his mask correctly. He was doing OK for a while, but the last month nope:mad:. Even though all the other store employees are wearing theirs correctly.
 

FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,525
Still waiting for Bruce Willis to save the world!! 🤣
I like the scientist in San Andreas. At least they listened to him.

i feel like the scientist in a disaster movie.

i stated in mid January that this ***** would sweep the planet in 4-6 weeks. I also warned about the first big wave.

i am now stating that the second wave will be a tsunami and it is totally out of control. I don’t care what the talking heads, politicians, or pseudo experts are saying, this thing is out of control and the next two months are going to be teeth rattling.

The scientist will be ignored.....I know how Dr. Fauci feels...
 
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FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,525
Latest worldometer readings are 572,000 new cases worldwide and just under 100,000 in the US.

At this rate, 600,000 case a day mark my be set by this time next week....ouch.
 

once_upon

Voter
Messages
16,743
We had 421 cases in my county yesterday - thats a lot.
Unlike SOME PEOPLE think we are not hiding in our house. I think for the most part we are cautious.

Last week was my dad's visitation/funeral. We had about 48 family members present. I am counting down the days until a week from Sunday.

We did go to a small local restaurant to sit outside for an early dinner. There were two people eating inside and the two of us outside (no one near us). It was about 3:30.pm and outside - the waitress was the only person we interacted with. It was literally blocks away from us to see anyone else.
 

Susan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,847
OMG - there is a video on my city's "nice" page of a woman using tongs to take candy out of a bowl to give to trick-or-treaters so they wouldn't have to stick their fingers in the bowl. (Personally, I never let the kids take the candy. I always put it in their pillowcases or pumpkins, and gave them one, not a handful, but anyway.....) One of the comments said "must be a Democrat", the others said the people in the store touched them (not in the bag, dummy) and stuff like that. She was just trying to be nice. Just my county reported 254 cases today.

So p.s. - don't kids walk up to doors and say "trick or treat" and that is why you GIVE them a treat. What's with kids grabbing a handful of candy out of bowl?
 

Lemonade20

Former Kurtholic
Messages
581
I agree about the candy, I think this year I’m going to opt out altogether. We have candy stations set up at businesses around town so we don’t need to participate. Even though it’s allowed in BC, risk is just too much. Stay safe everyone!
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,708
If I read Worldometers correctly, every state in the union reported new cases. That might have been going on for a while but it was the first time I've noticed it.

My mind can't grapple with over 100,000 new cases in a single day. I keep thinking it's 1000 new cases rather than the close to 1000 new deaths.

Most of those new cases will be asymptomatic or very mild symptoms. Others will be extremely ill or will have long term symptoms that will negatively impact their lives. A certain percentage of them will die. But all of them will have a moment of terror upon learning the diagnosis and an extended period of stress that will change if not their lives then at least their perception of their lives forever.

Today there were 100,000 of those moments in the United States alone.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,339
Illinois had a new high with 6,943 cases today.

1,063 cases in Montana today. A new high.

2,292 cases in Utah. Also a new high.

Another day over 1,000 in Idaho.

Nebraska
had a new high of 1,605 cases yesterday.

1,560 cases in South Dakota. Another new high.

1,357 new cases in North Dakota. Another new high.

3,167 in Minnesota. Yes, another new high.

Tennessee is struggling with staffing hospitals. They have space & beds but not enough people.

82% of ICU beds full as Alabama heads toward new *********-19 spike


'The window is rapidly closing' | Task force leader says St. Louis area is running out of time to slow *********-19

Health directors in the St. Louis area are worried that health care systems will be overwhelmed. The positivity rate & hospitalizations are up in Missouri.

Kansas
had over 3,000 cases, which looks like a new high as far as I can tell. According to one article, they are now only updating new cases 3 days a week.

********* had spared Alaska’s most remote villages. Not anymore.


RI (Rhode Island) Could Exceed Hospital Surge Capacity In 4 Weeks

(Rhode Island is limiting social gatherings to 10 people, closing indoor athletic activities for 1 week, and limiting visitation to hospitals and care facilities).
 

Lorac

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,305
Scientists here in the UK have determined the crud is spreading out of control here in England - yet still the politicians stick to clearly ineffectual local restrictions that allow too much interpretation and have too many loop holes!!!

CV spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show

Quoting myself but it now looks as if we here in England are heading back to a national lockdown - bringing us in line with Wales and NI - not sure how it links in with Scotland though. Again I'll say - we came out of the lockdown too quickly with no effective track and trace, no real mandate on masks and then tried to apply local lockdowns which were never going to work due to the fluidity of peoples movements for work etc and then the tier system that had loopholes from word go and too many people interpreting the rules to suit themselves.

Boris Johnson considering England lockdown next week
 

Orm Irian

Well-Known Member
Messages
888
Quoting myself but it now looks as if we here in England are heading back to a national lockdown - bringing us in line with Wales and NI - not sure how it links in with Scotland though. Again I'll say - we came out of the lockdown too quickly with no effective track and trace, no real mandate on masks and then tried to apply local lockdowns which were never going to work due to the fluidity of peoples movements for work etc and then the tier system that had loopholes from word go and too many people interpreting the rules to suit themselves.

Boris Johnson considering England lockdown next week
I'm sorry it's got to that point. If Johnson (if ever a person was aptly surnamed, it's him) and co. had just committed to a three-week circuit-breaker lockdown back when SAGE flagged it as needed instead of waiting till now, it's likely it wouldn't have got so bad, even despite the lack of an effective track and trace system in the UK. But he's a gutless wonder and so are his hangers-on, so.

Even worse, there's some evidence suggesting that the Eat Out to Help Out scheme designed to boost the economy actually boosted the second wave. :(
 

FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,525
The problem is that those in charge are following the ********* rather than leading. The numbers showed up to 2 month ago that a second wave was developing in Europe. That was the time they should have considered small, measured means of controlling and isolating the *****. Now, it is basically too late. You can only get any means of control by leading. Following only leads to ineffective measures and the crud totally out of control....
 

rfisher

Let the skating begin
Messages
64,414
Every regional hospital currently has a staffing problem due to the number of employees in quarantine. This information is not made public. We've had nearly 100 students, between nursing, respiratory, and medical imaging, who have been quarantined between September and October. Ordinarily the hospital would pull us out of clinic but the blunt truth is they need the students.
 

once_upon

Voter
Messages
16,743
There are not enough healthcare staff in any part of the US that have the skill set to care for the onslaught of patients we will have with C-19, influenza and the usual stuff like heart attacks, cancer, kidney failure, car accidents etc.

Even before C-19, there have been serious shortages of healthcare providers at all levels. At one point in the last 15 years, the average age of an RN was 52.

Hospitals are beginning to experience shortages of PPE again and that's with the rationing of N95 masks.

Utah is brave enough to talk about rationing care. I believe rationing care will become a reality for most states soon. You just cant grow ICU staff overnight.

I shake my head at the "call up the national guard" response. Who do you think the national guard doctors and nurses are? The ones already working the front lines.
 

rfisher

Let the skating begin
Messages
64,414
Staff have to reuse PPE. And, they are all experiencing YKW fatigue and don't follow the precautions they know they should follow. Our hospital has traced multiple exposures to breakrooms where staff take their masks off. We've now forbidden students to use the staff breakrooms all over the hospital, just to try and keep them in clinic long enough to finish the term.

And, if SCOTUS repeals the ACA hundreds of thousands of patients who were covered by extended Medicaid in our region will have no insurance coverage. The hospitals cannot absorb the cost to write off millions of dollars of unreimbursed expense. Moreover, if the pre-existing condition mandate is lost, they can't get coverage.

We're at no visitors, no vendors, and trying to keep elective surgeries going because of the revenue stream. It's going to be ironic if YKW is the final catalyst for a single-payer system because the current system is built on a house of cards. Costs, reimbursement, and lack of staffing---which is a direct result of the first two points along with job related stress, and the entire system in the US can have a catastrophic failure.
 

once_upon

Voter
Messages
16,743
Laat night 911 and EMS responded to a call of person who had irregular heart rhythm. He had gone to the ER earlier in the evening, but left because the wait had been too long. I dont know if the person used that response to bypass a wait or if they had thought they'd be ok despite not getting care.

On Wednesday or Thursday, 911 answered 7 or 8 calls from one assisted living facility with what was reported worsening C-19 symptoms. They were contacting the different ERs to see who could handle the patients.

And yet people's responses to all of these things are the Trump lines of "November 4th the cases will drop rapidly. Only 6% or the deaths attributed to C-19 are really C-19. The other 94% are fake" etc. When asked about rising numbers in Europe and can the world really be part of the hoax- several responses were they think those numbers are fake.
 

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