News & Experiences continued

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
15,163
In many countries, like Spain and Italy, people were not allowed to leave their homes at all. (Yes, these lockdowns that didn't work because apparently they weren't strict enough :rolleyes: ). It was exactly Rapunzel's tower, minus a once per week trip to your nearest grocery store, which required a signed, dated, and timed declaration form. In the UK, you had to be actively exercising - sunbathing, sitting on a bench, or god forbid even standing still outside would get you a talking-to or even a fine from the police.

And all of this pain, devastation, and wasted money for nothing as we're exactly back where we started. Lockdown will only work if we lock down for at least the next 12 months and hermetically seal borders. And, if we're going to do that, let's give the public a say.
 

snoopy

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,274
I read a couple of articles on why Africa hasn't been hard hit and people are largely just guessing as to why that it is but 1) fewer travelers and 2) fewer hermetically sealed homes and buildings seem to help. Being holed up at home might have some counter productive aspects to it. Or at least keep your windows open, if you are.
 

skatfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,051
And all of this pain, devastation, and wasted money for nothing as we're exactly back where we started. Lockdown will only work if we lock down for at least the next 12 months and hermetically seal borders. And, if we're going to do that, let's give the public a say.
Let’s remember that where we are today is different than where we would have been without restrictions - unless we want to have lived through situations far worse than NYC and Northern Italy. Far more people would have perished as hospitals got overrun and medical folks had to decide who received treatment and who didn’t.
Korea seems like a country worth looking at in terms of good practice and outcomes and it’s not an island.
 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
Staff member
Messages
50,792
I read a couple of articles on why Africa hasn't been hard hit and people are largely just guessing as to why that it is but 1) fewer travelers and 2) fewer hermetically sealed homes and buildings seem to help. Being holed up at home might have some counter productive aspects to it. Or at least keep your windows open, if you are.
During our quarantine, we were supposed to have all the doors and windows open as much as possible and the constant use of fans was recommended. Fortunately for us, it was warm(ish) the entire time. Unfortunately for all of us, we have allergies and the pollen was quite bad, so filling out the daily symptom form the county required was interesting.
 
Messages
8,055
Some evidence that low Vitamin D levels make people susceptible to c*vid:

(Interesting in light of lockdown strategies.) But, lockdown or not, it may be a good idea to take some Vitamin D pills.
The neurologist I saw for awhile thought that pretty much everyone should be taking fairly high doses of vitamin D. All the time. She's in the midst of long term research but preliminary results seem to support it. I assume especially for Northern climates.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,331
Per NPR, South Dakota has a higher rate of ********* cases today that North Dakota, as well as the rest of the country. At least 1,000 cases in South Dakota yesterday.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,331

More than 100 people infected with *********-19 during overnight summer retreat in Wisconsin​


Huh. A Wisconsin summer retreat for high school boys. Sounds like one that the national news did a big story on mid-summer.

Maybe not though. I feel like that one had kids who were younger than high school age.

Another article describes this as a "religious school retreat." Only 152 people participated. Over 75% became infected.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,705
NBC News offers a CV19 (plus CV19 politics and CV19 economic) roundup.

The United States shattered the record for *********-19 cases in a single day with 80,622 infections reported Wednesday, the latest NBC News tally showed.

It was the first time the U.S. crossed the 80,000-case threshold since the start of the ********* and the third time in a week that a daily case record was broken, the data showed.

The 996 *********-19 fatalities reported Wednesday raised the national death toll to near 228,000, which is the most in the world, according to the Johns Hopkins University *********-19 dashboard.
 

Susan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,830
Ohio 10/29/20

Ended at 3:00 again. I guess because of all the zoom calls to counties.

First thing he said was 3,590 cases (that is ~1,000 more than I typed on 10/27). Twitter - "It’s the first time we’ve surpassed 3,000 cases – and 25% more than Saturday’s previous record high."

Cases - 24 hour reported - 3,590 / 7 day average - 2,127
Hospitalizations - 194 (third highest) / 124 - total now 18,800
ICU - 26 / 20
Deaths - 19 / 14

Twitter - "Today I'm calling on the leaders of each county, each community, in Ohio to come together to create a ********* Defense Team. This is what we need to fight back. It should include commissioners, mayors, hospital leaders, business leaders, religious leaders, health commissioner, etc.

These teams should assess their county's situation, inventory assets, and focus on what steps are needed to turn this around.

Despite today's grim data, I'm optimistic. Ohioans have the tools, they know what works, and we always rally when we need to rally. I know people will do that. We can slow down this invader. The decisions each Ohioan makes each day will determine what kind of winter we have.

We also have 194 new hospitalizations reported in the past 24 hours, the third highest we’ve reported so far. The top five highest new hospitalization numbers have all occurred in the past week and a half."

"In our new Health Advisory System map, the good news is that we have no purple or watch-list counties. The bad news is the ***** is spreading significantly throughout this state."

"Cuyahoga, Clark, and Hamilton counties were on our watch list last week approaching Alert Level Purple. This week their cases and hospitalizations are at an elevated plateau – removing them from the list. Even though they are not purple – there are still serious concerns here. During the past month, the average age of cases in Cuyahoga, Clark and Hamilton counties has moved from people in their early 40s to people in their late 40s. This is concerning because we know that the risk of more serious illness increases as you get older. In Cuyahoga and Hamilton counties, cases continue to rise steadily, and hospitalizations remain elevated and could continue to increase. Clark County local health department officials told us today they are seeing alarming increases. They have recorded 271 cases during the past 7 days, hospitalizations are at a record high and they have had 41 deaths in October. Their previous high for deaths was 17 in August. What we see in these three counties is similar to what we see in the rest of the state—case numbers are continuing to go up, and healthcare utilization is trending upward. This is concerning. This is not good."

83 out of 88 counties have reached High Incidence per 100K. "This week we have 43 red counties (up from 38 last week) which equals around 78% of Ohio’s population. Just two counties are yellow – less than 1% of the population."

New Red counties are:
Ashtabula
Clermont
Defiance
Trumbull

He didn't even go into the details of these. I'm thinking some of them were Red before, just not two weeks in a row.

Top 20 - 100 per 100K population
Putnam - Tuesday - 868.3 / today - 915.5
Auglaize - Tuesday - 538.8 / today - 495
Holmes - today 493.6
Mercer - Tuesday - 478.5 / today - 493.6
Next 12 are over 300. Tuesday, there were 10.

Here's this same tweet under all of DeWine's tweets -
"This tweet was written by someone who welcomed in anti-maskers and refused to be critical of large gatherings without proper social distancing. You are a hypocrite, Governor, for not speaking out about the Trump rallies."

A high school football team had 13 players with #*********. A couple players got each other infected and then it spread to others on the team. The spread mainly happened at informal gatherings, not regular team functions.

There was an outbreak among staff at a doctor’s office as a result of mask non-compliance. Staff members at the doctor’s office were either not wearing masks or were not wearing them correctly.

There was a funeral at the end of September that now has 19 cases associated with it. Seventeen of the cases were identified with the funeral and two cases were secondary spread.

I'm not saying there is no spread in workplaces, schools, bars, etc. What I am saying is that a big part of the spread - according to those dealing with it every day - is coming from informal gatherings."
(I always wonder what the vice-moron/super-spreader thinks of DeWine's comments.)

A Hamilton county doctor was on skype (DeWine usually puts a link on his twitter, not today) - diffuse spread; more in the suburbs; the positivity in all age groups has increased. Businesses are doing a good job with workplace safety. So are the schools. (Then my laptop buffered.) He came back saying expanding your bubble increases your risk. People say they are testing before an event, but that is not "reassuring". You could test negative today and positive tomorrow without showing any symptoms.

Stupid Questions at 2:25 p.m.
I wasn't ready, so somebody from Cleveland? - How can you say all this spread is from informal gatherings? Only anecdotal (again)? Contact tracing is easier if it's not from someone going to a bar or in a crowd? They are working on getting more data. Anecdotal notes are from tracers. They tell them if they went to a bar or a restaurant or someone's house. It's impossible to know for sure where they got it. They are relying on health directors. And doctors are telling them where patients were.

WCPO, Cinc. - What do you expect the Defense Team to do? What if it doesn't work? (That is actually a good question. They can't "do" anything. Nobody can if people don't cooperate.) DeWine- it's his experience that people will listen to their community leaders before they will listen to him or the government. Hospitals are not overflowing, but hospital members can tell you what's happening. Different counties are at different levels. Also not saying we are going to solve the problem. (obviously)

Jim Otte, WHIO, Dayton - families are still planning Halloween parties? DeWine - "Parties don't make sense this year." Thanksgiving and Christmas are going to be different (me - if you aren't dead or in the hospital). Ohioans will figure out how to do it safely. (me - not if they don't have to) You can have trick or treat carefully. (me - no, you can't)

Gongwer News - how many long haulers in Ohio? DeWine asked the doctor. He doesn't have the numbers, but it is very real. They have continuing inflammation, myocarditis, lung and kidney problems. 6-9 months later, fever and fatigue. Some places are starting long haul clinics to help them. DeWine asked why some people and not others. The doctor said we have learned a lot and still have a lot more to learn.

I guess he had to call on the Ass today since he didn't Tuesday - here's his disgusting, stupid, ignorant, selfish question from his FB page - "Governor, since it’s clear that even though cases have increased by 400% and there has been an uptick in c.v. hospitalizations – we continue to see our hospital utilization drop. Over past two weeks: Inpatient bed occupancy dropped from 71% to 67%; ICU occupancy dropped from 66% to 63%; 25% of ventilators are being used, which is unchanged. Is this evidence that our health care system is not at risk (and deaths are not increasing)... and we need to continue to restore freedoms – get people back to working onsight and kids back in school buildings full-time? It’s fear at this point, killing businesses and people." Me - #1 - he should be arrested. #2 - the moron is looking at all hospital capacity, not c.v. or ICU. So - I can read. Last 5 days on the chart: c.v. patients currently in hospital > 1,342, 1,405, 1,456, 1,530, 1,536; ICU - 377, 406, 418, 417, 416 (nice downturn there, but maybe they died). DeWine - hospitalizations have doubled in the past 3-4 weeks. Asked the doctor - we've been more effective at treating the infection.

Ohio Cap. Journal - numbers are grim. The president is saying more cases come from more testing; he wants to kiss people……..Who do you think will be better to deal with the c.v., Biden or trump? (DUH) DeWine - why do I always get political questions? (I have to keep kissing his ass till he's out of there.) The president has put money into research. We hope the vaccine is coming soon. The increase in cases doesn't come from testing. When we cast a broader net (asymptomatic people), the numbers should go down.

Mahoning Matters - You said you can't mandate mask wearing. We have seat belt laws. (me - and cell phone while driving and headlight laws - - that are not enforced.) Why can't you get serious, or is the legislature? DeWine - you'd have to ask the legislature and then you would know why (and he sort of ha-ha'd). There is a mask order. We don't have mask police. The health department doesn't have enough people. (so what does he expect these individual task forces to do?) We have to rely on the good will of the people in the state of Ohio (too late). In July urban areas started wearing masks and the numbers went down. (It's these damn trump supporters, of which I (DeWine) am one, who don't care.) Blah, blah, blah.

Ohio Public Radio and t.v. - Election day, police will be there in case there is a problem. We've heard about problems other places. They happen very quickly. Will they be able to get there in time? DeWine - we have always had fair and free elections (before trump). People might want to cause problems. Sheriffs will be inside the flagged areas. Outside that will be the local jurisdiction. We have a war room and will be in constant communication. Ohio has a long history of running good elections (before trump - Man, does he not get that this year is different???)

WSYX - there is no sign of a plateau in testing. What would be a plateau? (I wrote "For God's Sake - have you ever seen a dictionary?" What does he think plateau means?) Then DeWine said a plateau would be if the numbers stop going up. (DUH) We need to set a goal to get the numbers to go down. (and DUH) If we go from 30% to 60% mask wearing, I guarantee it will go down. (People don't care.)

Cinc. Enquirer - You said we might shut down on our own. With no federal stimulus, can we support Ohioans? DeWine - We just announced the stimulus two days ago. We need to keep people working. Is optimistic. (He's going to have to stop saying that about everything.) Thinks there will be an additional bill in the lame duck session. Superintendents have told him their schools have had to pull back to keep the spread down. Hospitals have to be able to handle emergencies and have elective surgeries.

WBNS, Columbus - the mask message is not working. Is it because we don't have a health director? (Are you serious? People treated her like crap, wouldn't listen to her, blamed her for everything (still are).) What is the strategy moving forward? (LISTEN????) Neighbors, friends, leaders need to make it clear to people we don't want our county "ripped apart". (whatever)

AP - voters are concerned about going to the polls safely. DeWine - if you feel safe going to the grocery store, you should feel safe to go to the polls. (Well, I don't stand in line outside for 2 hours to get into the grocery store with all these other people who are not 6 ft. away.) Over half of the voters should have voted by election day, so there will be fewer people (except twice as many people ARE voting this year, so that does not help). Figure out a time to go when it is not as crowded (which is what everybody else does, so that does not help either.)

(That was very frustrating, but I'm glad it's only an hour now. I hope it stays that way. Another half hour of the same questions twice a week, and the same mushy answers, is too much.)
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,331
575 cases in Oregon today. Another new high, and we are not at the end of the week yet. (Recently cases seem to have been rising toward the end of the week). Cases are way up in Umatilla County today:cry:.
 

Theatregirl1122

Needs a nap
Messages
23,010
We do have outbreaks at schools, at least six schools have reported a positive case. High school kids don’t wear masks when they are out for lunch, and they travel around in groups. That’s why I’m concerned.

A positive case for a child who attends a school is not an outbreak in a school. An outbreak in a school would be if the positive child in the school transmitted it to the children they were in school with. In places where masks are required for school children, social distancing is required, and especially where groups have been reduced to allow for this kind of distancing, students are not transmitting the BB in K-12 schools. In schools, the kids follow the rules, wear their masks, etc. They are getting it from... get this... gatherings in homes where social distancing and masks are not observed. Schools cannot control what children or families do when they leave the premises.

What if no one can really develop an effective vaccine? To me, I think that is a possibility. This is for a class of viruses for which it hasn't been done before. What is plan B?

We've been over this. This is not for a class of viruses for which it has not been done before. The vaccines for SARS and MERS were created, but the disease itself died out before they could be approved. That doesn't mean they weren't created. No other c-viruses have been dangerous enough to make the effort of developing a vaccine worth it. No one who actually works in vaccine science thinks that an effective vaccine will not be developed. Literally everyone who is familiar with the science of this situation believes that it is only a matter of time.

ALL people's health and lives matter to me, which is why I support the Great Barrington Declaration and believe (as the WHO does) that we cannot have more lockdown. 75% of the deaths are coming from a very predictable < 5% of the population. We can predict this, and we can control it effectively if we devote resources to at-risk people instead of mortgaging our future for perfectly healthy, low-risk people, who are perfectly willing to work, to stay at home doing nothing for months or possibly years on end, with no exit strategy other than a vaccine that may never come (and is at least a year away from broad distribution).

Touting the Great Barrington Declaration is honestly a new low for you. Okay, the authors happen to work for some prestigious universities. Prestigious universities are capable of hiring idiots. I know this may come as a shock.

The Great Barrington Declaration was funded by a Koch Brother think tank invested in Climate Change Denial. This is what you're going to hang your hat on?

Fauci called the Great Barrington Declaration "total nonsense" and "very dangerous". It has been disavowed by the WHO, by the director of the NIH, by the American Public Health Association, by the Infectious Diseases Society of America, by Canada's BB Task force, by the British Secretary of State for Health, by medical leaders and professors from all around the world including Harvard itself. It has also, for the record, been disavowed by the town of Great Barrington, which was very surprised to find it's name attached to this work of fiction.

The strategy of Herd Immunity is a strategy that does not exist for humans without a vaccine. Without a vaccine, herd immunity is a concept that is applied only to livestock. You know, animals whose untimely death is literally a planned part of the way we raise them? Because herd immunity without a vaccine does not happen. Pan-demics sometimes mutate themselves out of existence, but the very idea of the kind of excess death and morbidity required to work for a herd immunity strategy without a vaccine is monstrous. Don't tell me that the pan-demic is only deadly to whatever imaginary low percentage of young people who get it that you are using today. What about people with pre-existing conditions? What about people who live in multi-generational homes? What about people who work in hospitals and nursing homes and rehab facilities have to encounter those people who are vulnerable? The world cannot continue as normal and just tell some vulnerable people to isolate. The Great Barrington Declaration has no plan. They don't say anything about how to protect the vulnerable, they don't mention the number of excess deaths their strategy would cause, and they don't talk about non-death side effects at all. And beyond that, we absolutely don't have solid morbidity and mortality rates by infection rate for any age group, because the testing capacity is not there. Your numbers are made up.

And I know you like to conveniently ignore the fact that death is not the one and only terrible thing that can happen when someone gets the BB so that your arguments about young, healthy people sound like they hold more water, but young healthy people do get very sick, they do die, and beyond that, many of them are sick for a long time and we still don't know the long term effects. So your "young people don't die" strategy of achieving herd immunity is still monstrous because you are still talking about exposing millions of young people to potential life long complications that no one understands.

We do not use herd immunity without a vaccine for a deadly disease in people. To do so is to sentence people to death and suffering. Full stop. Herd immunity is a concept used for vaccination. As Yale University Epidemiologist said, "these herd immunity strategies are about culling the herd of the sick and disabled. It’s grotesque.”

But you don't have to listen to me! You can listen to the experts! Although I guess you'll have to google these articles yourself, Louis.




 

ballettmaus

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,338
Don't tell me that the pan-demic is only deadly to whatever imaginary low percentage of young people who get it that you are using today. What about people with pre-existing conditions? What about people who live in multi-generational homes? What about people who work in hospitals and nursing homes and rehab facilities have to encounter those people who are vulnerable? The world cannot continue as normal and just tell some vulnerable people to isolate.

A few weeks ago, I came across a couple of articles (maybe even on this board) that said that after colleges had reopened, younger people were more affected originally in Wisconsin and another state (which I forgot) but eventually, the elderly were infected at a higher rate again as well. So, isolating them doesn't seem to work (unless you put them in a true bubble and that doesn't seem feasable).
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,331
Masks are definitely helping in schools. (If they were not, numbers could be much worse. I think we all know that).


But not every outbreak in schools has taken place in districts without masks.


The one in this article was in a district that required masks in the building. Spread there is being potentially blamed on overcrowded classrooms and unmasked sports practice.

In Idaho, cases in children doubled within two months of schools reopening. And case numbers in schools rose at a higher rate than case numbers outside of schools. Idaho is definitely not winning any competitions for strong safety measures; but even in states without mask mandates, often schools are enforcing masking requirements.

When I read about a school outbreak, I try to find out what safety measures have been in place within the article. Sometimes it is clear that basic mask-wearing & spacing guidelines weren't seriously attempted. Other times, however, that information is not provided.

(Here what I see are kids hanging out together outside without masks or distancing. I can see clearly through classroom windows that kids are spaced out & wearing masks inside the buildings. Outside, though, even when under adult supervision, no masks & no distancing. Schools here appear to be doing a good job setting & maintaining guidelines within regular classrooms, but schools and extra-curricular activities also facilitate more--often unsupervised--opportunities for kids to socialize outside of class. The other thing we see here are people wearing bandanas, which are reportedly worthless).
 

clairecloutier

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,941
So, with cases going up in MA, my city’s mayor issued new guidelines tonight for all citizens of our town:

1. Do not get together inside private homes with family or friends (the city’s contact tracing shows this is the primary mode of spread here)

2. Wear masks at all times when outside the house, including if we go into someone else’s house, or someone comes into our house

3. Get tested twice a month during November and December via the city’s free testing program

These are all guidelines, not mandatory, but I appreciate the city gov’t taking a proactive stance on this and issuing clear guidance. See, it’s not that difficult.
 

SkateSand

Cat Servant
Messages
826
My crazy, red, anti-mask county is currently in the red tier, which means everything is pretty much open, just at reduced capacity. People are still whining, of course. One of our local online papers just posted an opinion piece that was FSU-level snarky:

 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
Staff member
Messages
50,792
My crazy, red, anti-mask county is currently in the red tier, which means everything is pretty much open, just at reduced capacity. People are still whining, of course. One of our local online papers just posted an opinion piece that was FSU-level snarky:

"She’s the same one, if memory serves, who refereed to face coverings as face diapers, and said they were as filled with bacteria as a soiled Pamper."

She might even be a member here :shuffle:.
 

acraven

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,026
Measles vaccines are at about 95% efficacy. It is likely to take > a couple of years to get to that level of ******** efficacy as there has been no widespread deployment. Targets for the first vaccines are 30%. If that is sufficient to return life to mostly normal, okay by me.

I couldn't access the article in The Guardian, but I believe one of the CDC or NIH officials stated recently that he didn't anticipate approving a vaccine that was less than 50% effective.
 

FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,524
But I thought we had already turned the corner...
What Trump hasn’t figured out yet is there are no corners in a round room.

This thing is totally out of control. It is like the big wildfires in California, burning hot and nowhere near containment.
 

Susan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,830
As I saw someone comment on Twitter the other day, the US has turned the corner on this thing so often that it's spiralling. Unfortunately, the spiral is going down the drain. :(
When he was talking about a race track the other day and the finish line or something, I was thinking, the finish line is also the start line. We finished a lap and are right back where we started for another lap.
 

once_upon

Voter
Messages
16,730
Since he had YKW, he considers himself immune, and he recovered, I do think he feels we are rounding the corner I do think that is one of the few lies he actually believes.

Of course he is ignoring the explosion of cases.

The Med Center is near capacity here. Two counties around us are at positivity rates nearing or above 20. By counties near me - I moved from one of the in 2018.
 

canbelto

Well-Known Member
Messages
4,684
I think the "rounding the corner" thing is something Trump actually believes too. This president doesn't read -- he watches Fox News and talks to Hope Hicks and Kayleigh McEnany. On Fox it's as if C19 doesn't exist, and his closest aides have long gotten into the habit of printing out fake graphs and charts to tell him how amazing the U.S. is doing.

AMong right wing circles they're still on the "6%" number -- that 94% of C19 deaths aren't actually C19 deaths.

It's an echo chamber of ignorance that I absolutely believe Trump has bought hook, line and sinker.
 

FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,524
Since he had YKW, he considers himself immune, and he recovered, I do think he feels we are rounding the corner I do think that is one of the few lies he actually believes.

Of course he is ignoring the explosion of cases.

The Med Center is near capacity here. Two counties around us are at positivity rates nearing or above 20. By counties near me - I moved from one of the in 2018.
I would be more than glad to send him my spreadsheets. It spells the whole thing out in glorious detail.....
 

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