News & Experiences continued

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
Messages
57,355
We've already decided that. If we hadn't we would all be in real lockdown, not just having some things closed and others opened with restrictions. And over 210,000 people dead with no end in sight.

This is what I don't understand: Countries all over the world were able to control the spread of C19. They now have little to no community spread. They have occasional outbreaks that are swiftly squashed. Pretty much everything is open there. Including large events.

Yet apparently "lockdowns don't work" and "we can't control this thing" and we might as well open it all up, let it rip, and accept the death of 1 million people.

Let's not fool ourselves here. We absolutely could control this thing. We just aren't willing to do what it takes to make that happen.

I think @snoopy was looking farther ahead, if we come to a point and find there is no vaccine. That's not today or this winter. Its sometime next spring or after. And the thought is that we may at some point have to return to normal even while the disease is still circulating if we have no hope of a vaccine.

Its unlikely at that point we would still be in the situation we are today. Treatment is improving and new therapeutics are being developed. I don't think that we are just counting on a vaccine to get us out of this, but if we face a situation where there is no vaccine we will have to make a decision--based on circumstances at that time--about how to proceed. Its a hypothetical question at this point, not a suggestion that we give it all up now and die. (Even if some folks at the White House for example might like just that.)
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
15,164
The mitigation plan for the semi-lockdown in Germany btw is to pay the affected businesses 75% of their revenue that they made in November 2019.

That is estimated to cost about 8 - 10 billion Euros.
I just bought a recently published book from Amazon, "Why the Germans do it Better." :lol:. I'll let you know what I think of it. Taking into account publishing times, I'm 99% sure it was [email protected]

This is what I don't understand: Countries all over the world were able to control the spread of C19. They now have little to no community spread. They have occasional outbreaks that are swiftly squashed. Pretty much everything is open there. Including large events.

Which? China? (If you believe that?) Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan? No lockdown there. Proponents of lockdown keep ignoring that countries that the majority of countries that have defeated C19 did not lock down, and the majority of countries that implemented lockdown have failed. The exception doesn't prove the rule.

Let's not fool ourselves here. We absolutely could control this thing. We just aren't willing to do what it takes to make that happen.

Where has lockdown worked, as a long-term strategy, other than China (if you believe their numbers, which I don't)? Europe has shown that lockdown is pointless, and you just end up in the same place anyway. Anyone who authorized lockdown should be voted out of office, tarred, and feathered. Most of Europe suffered for nothing - it would be impossible to do worse.
 

Susan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,857
They had pink and peach and mint separately packaged disposable masks at CVS for 75 cents each. And the lt. blue ones, and I think there were other colors underneath. I didn't touch any to look - just walking by after I got my prescription. In October. It is chilly and damp today and I wore one of my 50 blue disposable ones. I noticed that it was not as warm as the cloth one I wore the other day. If we still need them in the spring, I hope they still have some.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Messages
37,848
And the thought is that we may at some point have to return to normal even while the disease is still circulating if we have no hope of a vaccine.
But the disease is still circulating and we have no vaccine now but some countries have controlled the thing and are back to normal. We don't have to accept massive deaths if we don't get a vaccine. There are other options.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
Messages
57,355
But the disease is still circulating and we have no vaccine now but some countries have controlled the thing and are back to normal. We don't have to accept massive deaths if we don't get a vaccine. There are other options.

There is a point at which we likely will have mitigated it enough that even without a vaccine we won't have to accept massive deaths. But now is not that time. I don't think everything is going to stay like it is now with the level of risk we have now in perpetuity even if we don't get a vaccine so I don't think it makes sense to conflate the two times, now and a future time down the road (if admittedly a rather vague time that is).

Some countries have very good success and many have not, France and Germany have just announced new national lockdowns this afternoon. We could have done better in the US but I don't buy that we could have been New Zealand any more than I buy Trump's crap. This thing is tough and rosy scenarios don't get us anywhere.
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
15,164
What "lockdown" countries are back to normal? Australia and New Zealand, which are islands thousands of miles from anywhere else? I would even argue they're back to normal, as Australians can't leave and enter the country, and Australians abroad are being told by their government to go to homeless shelters. If that's your definition of normal, I'll take the alternative.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Messages
37,848
There is a point at which we likely will have mitigated it enough that even without a vaccine we won't have to accept massive deaths.
Yes, that is what I am trying to say. We can mitigate and then we can open up safely.

It seems like so many in the US have just thrown up their hands and said we can't do anything but wait for a vaccine. But I don't agree with that. We can do a lot of things and should do them now.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
Messages
57,355
Yes, that is what I am trying to say. We can mitigate and then we can open up safely.

It seems like so many in the US have just thrown up their hands and said we can't do anything but wait for a vaccine. But I don't agree with that. We can do a lot of things and should do them now.

Who besides Trump and his cohort are saying that? Aren't most states still implementing restrictions and requiring masks?
 

ballettmaus

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,352
But if there are 50 000 - 100 000 new infections per day in December, like it would happen if nothing is done, I doubt tons of people would be going to theaters, restaurants and fitness centers anymore either.

Isn't that basically the argument that economists were making back in spring and why they were saying we won't get the economy back on its feet unless we manage to control YKW?


Are there countries who have not reopened schools at all?

I'm not aware of entire countries but in Virginia, public schools are still closed. They're currently preparing to open but with rising cases, I don't know if they follow through.




I think one of the problems was that certain people in decision-making positions had plans and they followed through on those plans no matter what and that's how we ended up with higher and higher baselines, at least here in the US. All school openings have led to an increase in cases, so it makes absolutely no sense to open schools when cases are already rising without them. But if they follow through regardless, we'll surely see a spike and then plateau at a higher baseline than we had before.


As far as Germany is concerned, Berlin has apparently enough hospital beds but they're short on staff. It's the consequence of actions taken before YKW and experts have warned about the dire staff situations before. Now, it's so bad that they worry they don't have enough staff should hospitals fill to capacity and hospitals are not testing staff who has come into contact with someone who tested positive anymore. I've now heard that from two different nurses. They'll only get tested if they have symptoms themselves so that they can keep coming to work. (Which is stupid but then, TPTB haven't exactly been smart to begin with).
 

FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,526
I work with 12 spreadsheets that include a cluster of countries from all over the world. These look at daily data going all the way back to February. I do all sorts of statistics including ratio of deaths to cases on a daily basis, a moving 30 day average, running totals averages. Also do daily rates of increase or decrease of cases and deaths as well as moving averages.

These are what the numbers are telling me. The crud is out of control in both eastern and Western Europe, the United States, the Middle Eas, and portions of South America. Cases are increasing in Russia, Canada, and parts of Southeast Asia. The only areas that are performing well are Oceania.

Overall, cases are increasing worldwide and shows no signs of slowing. The ratio of deaths to cases is still lowering on a 30 day moving average but that rate is slowing.

The reasons for the decreasing ratio of deaths to cases can be attributed to either the ***** in affecting a younger generation which has a lower fatality rate or the ***** is slowly changing so that it it more contagious but not as deadly. Both reasons are on the table.

Based on what I am seeing, the following conclusions are reached. The crud is out of control and the spread and rate of infection will continue at this pace through the end of the year. The ratio of deaths to cases will probably reach an equilibrium as more older people become infected.

I have noticed over the past several months that both so called experts and politicians have made statements that are contrary to what my numbers are saying, only to backtrack and make new statements that fall in line of what I am seeing.

Bottom line, I will continue to ignore outside talking heads and listen to what my numbers are indicating...
 

VALuvsMKwan

Wandering Goy
Messages
7,230
I'm not aware of entire countries but in Virginia, public schools are still closed. They're currently preparing to open but with rising cases, I don't know if they follow through.
NOT ALL public schools in Virginia are closed. I have a friend whose primary-school-aged daughter was trying to use remote video schooling to a harmful (to her learning and enthusiasm) degree, and she was allowed to attend in person every day. This took place several weeks ago.
 

Miezekatze

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,288
But the disease is still circulating and we have no vaccine now but some countries have controlled the thing and are back to normal. We don't have to accept massive deaths if we don't get a vaccine. There are other options.

But which countries are back to normal? Except for New Zealand?

The last time I checked South Korea that was only a few weeks ago, they had just opened fitness studios and temporarily opened a bit other stuff in order to get the economy going a bit, but only for 2 weeks, after that they tightened restrictions again. I don't think all that much is open there yet, in comparison to Europe in summer.

Also I'm pretty sure there's no normal concerts and stuff like that in Japan yet either?

Even in China there's an outbreak here and there AND tehy don't count asymptomatic people as infected, i just read that in a news article.
I'd assume one doesn't even hear about small outbreaks there.
At least I wouldn't trust them completely.

I don't think the list of countries who really controls the ********* is very long to be honest.

Basically nobody in Europe, North- or South America IMO, not Russia, also definitely not India,...

I think the Asian countries just have more experiences (and cultural differences probably play a role too) and Australia and New Zealand also have a bit of an geographic advantage.

Are all restrictions gone in Australia?

I think in Germany and Austria and Switzerland the problem is more mental btw, that we had so little problems in March AND our heallth system is not as fragile as in Netherlands and Belgium for example leads to people not accepting restrictions. That's why the thing is out of control here. People are just careless in private and now they bitch and moan about things closing down. I doubt more than 10% of people here are scared of the *****, which is the main problem here and afaik also in Austria. Today i was in the horseback riding forum and one poster complained that she now has to cancell her 30th birthday party, plus the ones of a friend, another friend and her mothers 60th birthday party, because they were all going to be in November. Which was answered by another poster adding that the 90th birthday party her grand aunt also has to be cancelled now :scream:

I think in the US you have the president and the politicans who are the problem and a part of the population.

In Germany the politicians are reasonable, but that also doesn't help if more than 50% of people aren't.
 
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VALuvsMKwan

Wandering Goy
Messages
7,230
^^
TL : DR - human beings and societal structures that they are part of are being selfish/fearful/lazy/contrary/self-interested/ignorant - aka imperfect humans. Quelle surprise.
 

overedge

G.O.A.T.
Messages
28,821
Absent a vaccine, I think we have to look at better therapeutics, better masking like KCC suggested, better indoor ventilation systems, etc. We'd have to look at broader systemic improvements and not rely on lockdowns long term.

We also have to look at economic systems that encourage conditions which can spread v*r*ses. Like how airlines (allegedly) can't be economically viable without running as many full planeloads of passengers as often as possible.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,713
In Liege, Belgium, asymptomatic nurses have been asked to continue working.

Liege, the largest city in the French-speaking Wallonia region, has the highest incidence rate in Belgium. The communications director of Liege University Hospital, Louis Maraite, told CNN on Tuesday that because of staff shortages, the hospital had "no choice" but to ask nurses who tested positive with no symptoms to work on a voluntary basis. "Doctors are not concerned by these measures as they have no shortages of doctors," Maraite said in a further interview on Wednesday.

While I am not a Nazi like Louis, I have to admit if I could choose which 5% of the world population to wipe out thanks to a not my fault *********, I could come up with a list of folks whose funerals I wouldn't object to. The problem is that unless one is a Nazi, one can't pick and choose the 5%. And since I can't control the 5%, I have to content myself with fantasies of guillotines and heads rolling. Yum.

I think CV19 is smarter than we are just as the flu and the common cold are smarter than we are. Maybe a more extended lockdown would have solved things months ago. Clearly during the lockdown time humans got smarter about treating patients with CV19. We aren't going to see what happened in the northeast again.

But what we seem to be seeing now at least in the U.S. is a spreading of the disease to places that felt it wasn't their problem last spring. It is their problem now, and a fair amount of that is self inflicted, so while they didn't have much sympathy for the northeast last spring, I have no sympathy for those places now, and if I could control the 5%... Well, I don't have to. We may not pick who lives and who dies but we can pick who we care about and who we don't.

The rest, individually, will be a combination of self-protection and pure luck. I'll wear my mask, keep my distance, wash my hands, avoid unnecessary travel. I'll hope the people I see are doing the same and I'll hope I don't have a heart attack or stroke or get cancer or break a bone while hospitals are overcrowded and nurses are asked to work even if they're sick.

And I'll find that copy of Guillotining For Fun and Profit that's somewhere on my shelves.
 

Susan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,857
Who besides Trump and his cohort are saying that? Aren't most states still implementing restrictions and requiring masks?
trumpers in Ohio who don't want to wear masks and want everything to open up completely.

24 hour reported cases - 2,607 (2nd highest day)
Hospitalizations - 173 (4th highest)
1,536 c.v. patients currently in the hospital, but that is still only 5.61% of total bed capacity. 67.71% are non-c.v. patients, with 26.68% of beds available. Patients in the ICU is a similar breakdown.

Yesterday's positivity rate is up to 7% / 7 day moving - 5.9%
These are the states on the travel advisory. I guess nobody has to have Ohio on a travel advisory yet.
South Dakota
Idaho
Wisconsin
Iowa
Alabama
Nebraska
Kansas
Nevada
Utah
Mississippi
Wyoming
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,356
But nobody is ENFORCING the mask requirements, even when they are mandatory.
Many states & cities are holding businesses accountable. Most of the time, this process begins with officials following up with business owners by phone--laying the consequences on the table--and that results in better compliance. But businesses that are grievous offenders do lose liquor licenses & get sued. There are also some police forces that are being pro-active. There are some businesses that hire help with monitoring. And there are teachers, administrators, 4-H leaders, camp planners, event leaders, etc. that enforce mask requirements. And ultimately, there is the court of public opinion (which seems to be the one that finally motivates non-compliant churches).
 

sk8pics

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,559
I still have a short trip planned for next week, but we’ll see. I’m flying out of BWI and was planning to use the hourly garage so I wouldn’t have to take a shuttle anywhere, and it turns out, they closed all their parking facilities except for the hourly and daily parking, and have cut the rates in half. And those two facilities are only about 1/3 full, so the airport is not very crowded, which I expected. And Southwest is still not fully booking their flights. And when I get to Kentucky I will be outside except for when I’m in my hotel room.

Sigh. We’ll see if I actually go.
 

Orm Irian

Well-Known Member
Messages
890
Are all restrictions gone in Australia?
We're a large country, with the major population centres far apart. It means different areas can have different levels of restriction based on their needs, without it being a confusing patchwork a la the varying decisions of the Swiss cantons. WA is pretty much restriction-free but maintaining a hard border with the rest of the country, SA/TAS/QLD/NT have low levels of restrictions and semi-permeable borders, NSW has slightly higher, VIC has the highest level and I'm not sure where the ACT stands right at the moment, but probably in line with NSW given their geographical situation.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Messages
37,848
Who besides Trump and his cohort are saying that? Aren't most states still implementing restrictions and requiring masks?
I'm not sure why Trump and his supporters don't count. They are people.

So who is saying this?
(1) numerous politicians including Trump and his cabinet / people in government but also local politicians
(2) the conservative parents in my town who are organizing to keep schools closed even though cases are way down here and the state will let certain age groups back into school.
(3) people writing to me to say they won't do our kids triathlon until there is a vaccine
(4) people on my FB feed and other social media
(5) people in my life

Just to be clear:

(1) Back to normal == most or all things open with restrictions. People still social distance. People wear masks. Maybe the largest gatherings (thousands) are still forbidden (or not). But on a day-to-day basis, you can do what you used to even if you have to wear a mask. This would yellow tier in California's system.

(2) Having an outbreak doesn't mean you can't count that country as having things under control. Outbreaks are normal and expected. When you have one, if your country has things under control, they stomp it down while areas without an outbreak continue as before.

But which countries are back to normal? Except for New Zealand?
Japan, China, Vietnam for starters. A lot of African countries didn't have bad outbreaks and so things are fairly normal there. So I would say most of Asia and most of Africa. Maybe NZ and Aus but they won't let anyone in so people might argue they don't count.

So it's really Europe and the Americas who don't have things under control. The rest of the world seems to have their shit together.

Even in China there's an outbreak here
Doesn't mean they aren't basically back to normal.

Many states & cities are holding businesses accountable.
And many aren't. And many don't have mask mandates at all. Or have a lot of stuff open that CDC guidelines* say should be closed with their numbers.

*I think it's the CDC. May be some other agency.
 

cholla

High ground loner
Messages
12,200
Hello lockdown my old friend,
France is in that deep shit again,
Because a v*rus softly creeping,
Left its seed while some were partying
And the rage planted in my brain
Will remain
Within the end of my patience
(or within the sound of the ambulance)

My apology to Simon & Garfunkel :2faced: I don't drink alcohol but tonight I'd happily get wasted if I could :lol:
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,713
(2) Having an outbreak doesn't mean you can't count that country as having things under control. Outbreaks are normal and expected. When you have one, if your country has things under control, they stomp it down while areas without an outbreak continue as before.


Japan, China, Vietnam for starters. A lot of African countries didn't have bad outbreaks and so things are fairly normal there. So I would say most of Asia and most of Africa. Maybe NZ and Aus but they won't let anyone in so people might argue they don't count.

So it's really Europe and the Americas who don't have things under control. The rest of the world seems to have their shit together.

I just scrolled around Worldometers and there are other countries that have serious problems. A partial list would include India, Iran, Iraq, Israel and Saudi Arabia.


 

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