News & Experiences continued

missing

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CA is doing well while other parts of the country are surging. Experts think it's because we have the highest level of mask usage in the country (using self-reported numbers) and are social distancing. Hopefully we learned from trying to re-open too soon.


I like it when blue states do well but I can think of a couple of reasons why CA numbers aren't climbing when other states' numbers are.

Based on what my friends who live in LA have told me, there have been a number of days when the air quality has been poor because of the smoke from the forest fires. In addition there have been a number of days when the temperature has been over 100 degrees. Either of these things (or both in combination) may have kept people from doing non-essential activities, which lowers the risk.

Separately, and I've read/heard nothing about this so it's pure speculation on my part, perhaps the prison system has worked out better methods for controlling the spread. It could be they've set up better quarantining or they're no longer mixing infected and non-infected communities, or maybe even some form of herd immunity has taken effect there. Again, I don't know if prison spread is as bad as it was in the summer, but if it isn't, that would lower the statewide numbers.

I've felt pretty much since the beginning of all this that understanding why CV19 spreads is easier than understanding why it doesn't spread.
 

Buzz

Socialist Canada
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Today Toronto had 244 new cases with 704 in Ontario with four new deaths but there was a drop in testing.
 

Prancer

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A discovery by a 14 year old girl could possibly lead to a cure for C-19.

Anika's winning invention uses in-silico methodology to discover a lead molecule that can selectively bind to the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 *****.

Anika, who is Indian American, submitted her project when she was in 8th grade.


Wow.
 

missing

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There's a discussion at GSD about Skate America in Las Vegas that doesn't need my own personal doom and gloom charm, so I'm bringing this I'm shocked, shocked article here instead.

Hold onto your hankies folks. Las Vegas resorts rank high as possible CV19 exposure sites.

Hotel-casinos on the Las Vegas Strip lead the area as possible points of *********-19 exposure, according to a published report.

The resort with the highest number of possible exposures in Clark County from June through August was the Cosmopolitan hotel-casino on the Las Vegas Strip, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The property had 304 possible exposures.

The *********-19 contact tracing figures were provided by the Southern Nevada Health District (SNHD), according to the newspaper’s website.

The next highest “possible exposure sites” were the Bellagio (153), MGM Grand (133), Venetian (89), and Caesars Palace (86), according to the newspaper’s analysis. The Clark County Detention Center was the only location other than a hotel-casino in the top six. It reported 93 possible exposures.

These resorts were among the first to reopen after Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) allowed casinos to begin operating again in early June following a mid-March *********-19 lockdown.
 

Prancer

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Another piece about the scientific community, politics and the Great Barrington declaration.

The declaration’s core assumption, that population immunity will be achieved by allowing life to go on as normal and shielding only the most vulnerable from the *****, is entirely speculative. The thrust of its argument is based on a false opposition between those who argue for lockdown and those who are against it, when in fact lockdowns are one of numerous measures that scientists have called for, and are seen as a short-term last resort to regain control.

The truth is that a strategy of pursuing “herd immunity” is nothing more than a fringe view. There is no real scientific divide over this approach, because there is no science to justify its usage in the case of *********-19.

When scientists disagree, we expect them to provide evidence for their position. Yet the declaration’s many contentious statements are unreferenced

But the trio of scientists who fronted the declaration were able to put the weight of the world’s most prestigious academic institutions behind their statements – Stanford, Harvard and Oxford – giving the declaration a sheen of respectability. The views of these scientists about lockdown and the pursuit of herd immunity are no doubt sincerely held (though, notably, not published in any peer-reviewed scientific articles),

The science is clear: attaining herd immunity to ******** via uncontrolled infection is a fringe view, peddled by a minority with no evidence to back up their position. What’s less certain is the political and economic interests that lie behind this declaration. Let the debate begin on those.
 

missing

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The spin studio outbreak in my hometown is now up to 74. 48 primary and 26 secondary cases.

Public health has made a chart, which is included in the link below.

It's interesting that the primary cases are almost twice the number of secondary cases.

The article did say secondary case numbers might increase, but you'd think if every infected person is likely to infect at least one other person, the secondary case numbers would be much higher than they currently are.
 

missing

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Donald Trump doesn't like Anthony Fauci.

President Trump railed against Dr. Anthony Fauci during a call Monday morning, calling him and a “disaster” who has “been here for 500 years.”

According to multiple reporters listening in on a campaign staff call two weeks out from Election Day, Trump said that people were tired of ******** mitigation efforts. He also claimed, without evidence, that if the administration had listened to Fauci, one of the nation’s premier infectious disease experts and the longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, “we’d have 700,00, 800,000 deaths.”

“People are tired of *********. I have these huge rallies. People are saying, ‘Whatever. Just leave us alone.’ They’re tired of it. People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots,” Trump said, adding, “Fauci is a nice guy. He’s been here for 500 years.”
 

BlueRidge

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I keep seeing this prediction that the US may have 200,000 more deaths by the end of the year.

What?! That means almost as many as we've had so far in the next 2 1/2 (not quite) months.

Is that possible? :eek:
 

missing

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I keep seeing this prediction that the US may have 200,000 more deaths by the end of the year.

What?! That means almost as many as we've had so far in the next 2 1/2 (not quite) months.

Is that possible? :eek:

If it's any comfort, that seems to be the forecast through January 2021.

The model forecasts three different scenarios to reflect the potential impact of policies and people's behavior on outcomes. The worst assumes social distancing mandates continue to be rolled back — and projects nearly 483,000 cumulative deaths by Feb. 1. The rosiest scenario assumes communities reimpose such mandates when deaths reach a certain level per capita and that nearly everyone wears masks. In that case, cumulative deaths could still reach nearly 315,000.

Currently the U.S. averages over 700 deaths a day. IHME projects it could rise to more than 2,000 a day by mid-January, rivaling the most fatal days in the spring.


My assumption is January is going to be a bloodbath, with a major increase due to all the usual suspects plus Christmas.
 

missing

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I thought this was a joke but apparently Trump really did tweet this:

Dr.Tony Fauci says we don’t allow him to do television, and yet I saw him last night on @60Minutes, and he seems to get more airtime than anybody since the late, great, Bob Hope. All I ask of Tony is that he make better decisions. He said “no masks & let China in”. Also, Bad arm!
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
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If it's any comfort, that seems to be the forecast through January 2021.

The model forecasts three different scenarios to reflect the potential impact of policies and people's behavior on outcomes. The worst assumes social distancing mandates continue to be rolled back — and projects nearly 483,000 cumulative deaths by Feb. 1. The rosiest scenario assumes communities reimpose such mandates when deaths reach a certain level per capita and that nearly everyone wears masks. In that case, cumulative deaths could still reach nearly 315,000.

Currently the U.S. averages over 700 deaths a day. IHME projects it could rise to more than 2,000 a day by mid-January, rivaling the most fatal days in the spring.


My assumption is January is going to be a bloodbath, with a major increase due to all the usual suspects plus Christmas.

😱 I mean, I know that experts have been saying the winter will be bad, and I know the problem that is coming with holiday get togethers and family gatherings but I still can't think in terms of doubling the number of deaths we've had already.
 

BlueRidge

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I thought this was a joke but apparently Trump really did tweet this:

Dr.Tony Fauci says we don’t allow him to do television, and yet I saw him last night on @60Minutes, and he seems to get more airtime than anybody since the late, great, Bob Hope. All I ask of Tony is that he make better decisions. He said “no masks & let China in”. Also, Bad arm!

Pardon my language here, but Trump is such a schmuck that he can't let go of Fauci having thrown out the first pitch at the Nationals opener such that he's still talking about it instead of important policy issues months later.

And actual, real people claim to admire this man. I mean WHAT THE [email protected]
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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I've felt pretty much since the beginning of all this that understanding why CV19 spreads is easier than understanding why it doesn't spread.
A lot of the experts say there is an element of luck involved in keeping the spread down.
It's interesting that the primary cases are almost twice the number of secondary cases.

The article did say secondary case numbers might increase, but you'd think if every infected person is likely to infect at least one other person, the secondary case numbers would be much higher than they currently are.
It depends on where they are. Here in CA, our R0 is below 1 so not every infected person infects another. (I don't remember where the spin class happened.) Also, it depends on how good the contract tracing is. Even very good contact tracing misses people.
I keep seeing this prediction that the US may have 200,000 more deaths by the end of the year.

What?! That means almost as many as we've had so far in the next 2 1/2 (not quite) months.

Is that possible? :eek:
It's an exponential disease. So rapid rise (and rapid fall) in numbers will happen if you let it run without intervention.
 

BlueRidge

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It's an exponential disease. So rapid rise (and rapid fall) in numbers will happen if you let it run without intervention.

But we're not letting it run without intervention. We're letting it run with inadequate intervention perhaps but this bad?!
 

canbelto

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4,709
He goes further:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

·
1h

...P.S. Tony should stop wearing the Washington Nationals’ Mask for two reasons. Number one, it is not up to the high standards that he should be exposing. Number two, it keeps reminding me that Tony threw out perhaps the worst first pitch in the history of Baseball!
 

Dobre

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So rapid rise (and rapid fall) in numbers will happen if you let it run without intervention.
We never get rapid fall here. We get plateaaaaaaaaau, slow fall. Then the state decides it is OK to open something. The numbers climb back up to plateau level during the week they are preparing for that something to open. (Everyone pretends to ignore the fact that numbers are going up). Then whatever it is opens. And then the numbers skyrocket within maybe one week to twice as high as whatever our highest number was previously during the *********. At which point the reporters & officials acknowledge that oh, yes, cases are going up again.

I am really worried about Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas because our numbers are still climbing since schools started to open. And there is not enough time left for plateaaaaaaaau & slow fall before we hit that trifecta of holidays. Plus as long as schools keep opening, it doesn't seem like we may even get to plateaaaaaaaau.
 

MacMadame

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Okay, I see why there was that article on our vaccine plan. The governor is talking about it at today's press briefing. :)

1) Have a board of scientists who will independently review any vaccine candidate. ["Lots of 'world-class' scientists happen to live in CA"]

2) First phase will have a limited supply. It will go to high-risk groups only.

When will it be available? DC has some audacious stretch goals. Two candidates have said they will have limited supply in Nov and Dec respectively. They are Moderna and Pfizer. (Not sure which one is Nov and which one is Dec.) They both have different distribution requirements.

High-Risk groups:
65+ and in LTC
Essential workers
Have Disabilities
Racial ethnic minorities
Rural populations
Incarcerated / detained

3) Issues to solve

a) Supplies - needles/syringes, alcohol pads, bandages, masks, PPE

Many asymptomatic so need more PPE/masks for the distributors

b) Storage - two different methods required

Ultra-cold storage: Below -70C - dry ice required
Cold storage: -20C - dry ice required

(Dry ice could be an issue - run out)

c) Data management

We have an existing system called CAIR - Ca Immunization Registry - may not take the strain but they do have a term of people who are looking into the IT behind CAIR to make sure it's robust especially as we expend

d) Community education and engagement

The vaccine will be distributed at the speed of trust. Will work on having trusted messengers, culturally appropriate PSAs.

4) Vaccine won't end C19 overnight. But are a key tool to manage the pan-dem-ic. But also need:

Prevention: Wear a mask, physically distance, wash hands, limit mixing & stringent re-opening

Do those things your Grandma told you! (i.e., hygiene)

Containment: testing & isolation

Perkin-Elmer lab to dramatically increase testing - an update next week

Treatment: more effective and more available treatment

We have some available therapeutics being tested in CA

He went off on a tangent at one point and said:
Pfizer & Moderna estimates for planning purposes the high end of available doses will be 45 mil total between them. But need 2 shots, not 1

All the people who are identified as high-risk will use up all the limited amount we will get.

Won't be able to go down to the local pharm and get one of these vaccines at first. Mass ability in 2021. Question is 1st, 2nd, 3rd quarter? Yes. Depends on who you talk to. (Q2 seems to be the median estimate)

Another point:
He reminded people to cover their freaking noses! :lol: There was even a picture. Said: not to brow-beat people as we all do it wrong occasionally but just reminder.

Cases: 3474 on Oct 18th, 2966 is 7-day average
Trendline: more tests, back up to 121k after being impacted by fires. Hope to double that soon
2.5% positivity rate

Decreases in hospitalization. But only down 4% this week (compared to double-digit reductions in the past)
Decreases in ICU. Just 3% decrease in 14-day admissions but 7-day numbers show an increase

Bottom line: we are plateauing

We look good compared to other states (38 are increasing) but we are moving into Winter and a second wave

Theme park guidelines will be updated on Tues. There will be types of parks with different guidelines. (Good. They've been promising these for over a month.)

County stages (based on last weeks' numbers)
Only 10 counties in Purple (Highest)
27 in red
13 in Orange
8 in Yellow (northern/rural)

SoCal remains a concern

Q&A period:
This plan will not change if Joe Biden becomes President.

What about the model that said we'd have more hospitalizations right now? We are still working the models and will report more on Tues. We project with the best models we have. It's good that we are doing better than expected.

All of CA models are open-source so anyone anywhere in the world can have input.

Quarantine for travelers from high-case districts? Open to it but it's not part of our current planning. Concerned about the entire US. But we never broke 8% positivity over a 14-day period in our first wave. (the implication is that our bad wasn't as bad as other state's bad but he didn't actually say that)

Asked about when will Phase 1 of distribution be over? We can't really say because we're getting numbers for planning purposes and most of the numbers are optimistic. Also the impact of the vaccine on immunity, which is also unknown right now. Definitely, for most people, Q2 is when we can resume more of a normal life. Rejects the lazy science around this notion of herd immunity. (Shade on that Great Barrington petition :D) The sober notion is that we'll be slogging through until at least the middle of 2021 getting this vaccine out.

Clarified that NO vaccine will be distributed in CA until the Board approves it.

We never get rapid fall here.
We've seen it elsewhere though. We're going through it in CA where headlines say things like "plunging" (though I think we're plateauing now)
 
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Prancer

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Pardon my language here, but Trump is such a schmuck that he can't let go of Fauci having thrown out the first pitch at the Nationals opener such that he's still talking about it instead of important policy issues months later.

And actual, real people claim to admire this man. I mean WHAT THE [email protected]
I see a lot of people say that they like it that he fights back. I find that baffling and wonder what these people do when they fight back.

Trump is right that people are tired of ********* restrictions. I sure am. I am also tired of having to work, among other things, but alas, no one thinks I should stop for that reason.
 

BlueRidge

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I see a lot of people say that they like it that he fights back. I find that baffling and wonder what these people do when they fight back.

Hammer on completely irrelevant things that irritate them endlessly? In other words, his supporters are the same personality type he is? :eek: Actually I hope this mostly isn't true and its just that they are caught up in a crazy us vs them and them is pure evil thing, okay that's not better maybe...

I'm not tired of restrictions by themselves, I'm tired of the p-demic and everything it has brought us, from restrictions to masks to a risk of serious illness and death for myself or people I care about to a depressed economy to uncertainty and everything else about it.
 

canbelto

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I see a lot of people say that they like it that he fights back. I find that baffling and wonder what these people do when they fight back.

Trump is right that people are tired of ********* restrictions. I sure am. I am also tired of having to work, among other things, but alas, no one thinks I should stop for that reason.

I love it when people say "he's just like me." Really? You see this guy on tv and think "that's me?" And that's something to brag about?
 

FGRSK8

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Anika's winning invention uses in-silico methodology to discover a lead molecule that can selectively bind to the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 *****.

Anika, who is Indian American, submitted her project when she was in 8th grade.


Wow.
If I were an executive of a big drug maker, I would be on the next plane down to see Anika and see what she has developed.

Angels aren’t found in big cities, big government, or in big corporations, they are found in the quiet backwater areas of this country where they are least expected....
 

her grace

standing with Mariah
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If I were an executive of a big drug maker, I would be on the next plane down to see Anika and see what she has developed.

Angels aren’t found in big cities, big government, or in big corporations, they are found in the quiet backwater areas of this country where they are least expected....

I agree that Anika is to be commended, but your comment that she's from a quiet backwater area is flat-out wrong. She's from Frisco, Texas, which is a suburb of the big city Dallas and has a population of 202,000.
 

MacMadame

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I am also tired of having to work, among other things, but alas, no one thinks I should stop for that reason.
I think you should stop! You should retire and do nothing but read, follow skating, and go on vacation. (With no money worries.) And so should I! :D [Pipe dream, I know.]

I have to say in many ways I have "settled in" to the *********. I have a routine mostly and I've accepted where we are. This routine is working for me mentally. So I'm not experiencing pandemlc fatigue.

It probably helps that my area is gradually opening up vs. closing back down. So now we can do group bike rides with restrictions. I have gradually been doing more things on my own timeline and the only thing that didn't open up when I was totally needed it was swimming pools and they are open now.

Gyms are open too but I'm not ready for them. But the rainy season is coming so I may force myself. Or not.

I agree that Anika is to be commended, but your comment that she's from a quiet backwater area is flat-out wrong. She's from Frisco, Texas, which is a suburb of the big city Dallas and has a population of 202,000.
That's because most innovation and science happens in metropolitan centers because that's where the population and resources are concentrated. ;)
 

Prancer

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I think you should stop! You should retire and do nothing but read, follow skating, and go on vacation. (With no money worries.) And so should I! :D [Pipe dream, I know.]
I think we should all do that. There are so many interesting things I could be doing besides work.

It probably helps that my area is gradually opening up vs. closing back down.
It's pretty open here and what restrictions are in place aren't really affecting me. But I'm with BR--I'm just tired of the whole thing. But for me at least, Trump's erratic take on the crud is one of the major things I am tired of.
 

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