News & Experiences continued

MacMadame

Staying at home
Messages
36,416
I am glad that there are people who actually like doing that kind of analysis.
I'm not all the way through and I have some quibbles with his conclusions here and there but I think this one section bears repeating:

In the US, it’s even worse. 45% of the population has pre-existing conditions that increase their risk of death. That doesn’t even include old people. More than half the population is at serious risk.

It’s not sufficient to protect these people. All their contacts would need to be extremely careful not to catch the ***** and pass it to their vulnerable loved ones. As a result, substantially more than half of the US population would need to be extremely careful for years. How are we going to keep more than half of the population safe from the rest?
I think this is something people don't really realize. They talk like only a handful of old people and a few really sick people both sets already at death's door... They don't think it applies to them or anyone they care about. But 45% of the population is a LOT of people. It's probably people who don't even consider themselves at risk.
 

BaileyCatts

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,621
For people who work or live in high-rise office and condo buildings .... how are you handling riding in the elevators? Especially in those super high-rise type buildings? Do they only let 4 people in an elevator at a time or you have to wait in lines to use the elevators?
 

Tony Wheeler

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,463
For people who work or live in high-rise office and condo buildings .... how are you handling riding in the elevators? Especially in those super high-rise type buildings? Do they only let 4 people in an elevator at a time or you have to wait in lines to use the elevators?
2 people at a time. Been that way since March. Never a problem. Everyone inside the building still has to wear a mask. Pretty sure that's a city-wide thing here.
 

acraven

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,995
I live in a 9-story condo building. The second person getting on the elevator usually asks the first person whether it's OK to board (or just waits if #2 prefers to do that). I've found I can hold my breath all the way down if there are no stops, and I try to do that, because why not? There's a 6-foot semi-circle marked around the elevator entrances at the lobby level to discourage huddling. People still aren't going out much here in my DC neighborhood, so elevator usage has been low. The two fire alarms in May caused issues in the stairwells, though.
 

Tony Wheeler

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,463
I live in a 9-story condo building. The second person getting on the elevator usually asks the first person whether it's OK to board (or just waits if #2 prefers to do that). I've found I can hold my breath all the way down if there are no stops, and I try to do that, because why not? There's a 6-foot semi-circle marked around the elevator entrances at the lobby level to discourage huddling. People still aren't going out much here in my DC neighborhood, so elevator usage has been low. The two fire alarms in May caused issues in the stairwells, though.
Why would you not just put a mask on if you're about to leave the building anyways? Holding your breath isn't going to do much of anything.
 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
Staff member
Messages
50,289
I don't understand why they aren't sure. Aren't there cases that have been studied where one infected person infected everyone within his air flow (i.e., were the A/C was moving the air) but no one outside of it?
There are a couple, yes. But you need a lot of studies to be sure, especially when you are researching something behavior related. So yes, there have been some studies that indicate that that people tested positive after being in a place where they were sitting in the airflow stream of an infected person...but were they actually infected there or could it have happened somewhere else? Was it because of air flow? Did they get close to the infected person within that place as well as sitting in the air flow?

It seems logical that this would be a way infection would spread...which means you have to be doubly sure because confirmation bias could be leading your study.

If you want quick, solid answers, developing science is not your thing.

I think this is something people don't really realize. They talk like only a handful of old people and a few really sick people both sets already at death's door... They don't think it applies to them or anyone they care about. But 45% of the population is a LOT of people. It's probably people who don't even consider themselves at risk.
Yeah, I fall into that category, but I classed myself as at risk but not high risk. Then the one doctor I have seen during this sent me off for several tests because he says I am the poster child for inflammation and he thinks that puts me at high risk, especially since I can't take steroids and that will cause me all kinds of complications should I get sick. None of that ever crossed my mind. And I would bet there are a lot of people like me who have a limited understanding of their own risk factors.

Steroids are looking like the way to go for treatment, at least for now. Or are they?
 

manhn

Well-Known Member
Messages
13,092
My 4 storey condo building, it’s one household per elevator ride. It’s been pretty good so far. And it’s not really busy for it to be an issue. I was always a stairs person but having to touch knobs is so tiring.

My office in Downtown is 3 people per elevator ride. But Downtown Vancouver has been pretty dead. It has not opened up in the way that the outer part of the city has, and the surrounding suburbs.
 

once_upon

Voter
Messages
15,667
My cousin's granddaughter who is either 13 or 15 I can't remember hangs around with 7 other girls. Those 7 girls tested positive for C-19. So far she has tested negative (2). Mycousin says granddaughter isnt much of a hugger so maybe that is why.

There's a care facility about 25 miles from my aunt/uncle's assisted living place has had 21 cases with 7 deaths.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,504
Nightly insomnia roundup of bad news:

Young people drive CV19 numbers up.


The rising number of *********-19 cases in states across the country is due in large part to more young people contracting the *****, raising alarms among public health officials.

The spikes suggest young adults are both more likely to hold front-line service jobs that put them at risk and more likely to ignore some of the social distancing practices advised by health experts.

The most troubling hot spots are now concentrated in Sun Belt states such as Arizona, California, Florida, North Carolina and Texas. All five of those states have reported more than 1,000 new cases per day this week, making them the only five states to break the four-digit barrier during that period.


Georgia is not immune to CV19 spikes.

Hutchinson’s home sits on the Troup County side of West Point, one of several ******** disease hotspots in rural Georgia. This month, the number of confirmed *********-19 cases has more than doubled to 863 in Troup, where 24 people have died from it. Georgia, meanwhile, is one of 20 states where the numbers of newly reported cases have grown over the last 14 days, according to a New York Times analysis.

Teens test positive after spending senior week at the Delaware beaches.


At least three teens who participated in recent senior week activities at the Delaware beaches have tested positive for *********-19, prompting state health officials to call for widespread testing among teens who took part in similar activities.

The three positive cases resulted from a Dewey Beach rental unit, where more than a dozen teens were living, the Delaware Division of Public Health said in a release issued late Friday night.

While at the beach, state health officials said the teens attended several "crowded" gatherings in Rehoboth, potentially exposing as many 100 people or more to the contagious respiratory *****.


I've developed a little healthy skepticism about NYS's glowing numbers, but if they're accurate, we had 15 fatalities, which ranks us 16th overall in deaths yesterday.


 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,774
A couple articles that I appreciated coming out of New Mexico.

This one, in which there is a nice lack of dismissiveness and a serious look at what New Mexico will face as it moves ahead:

Green in a sea of red: New Mexico watching *********-19 spike in neighboring states
https://tinyurl.com/ycueqfvw

And this one, in which the state is donating masks to small businesses:
New Mexico donating face coverings to small businesses
https://tinyurl.com/yassz68u


Then there is this:
Spike in Florida cases threatens NBA’s planned Orlando “bubble”
https://sports.yahoo.com/spike-florida-cases-threatens-nba-053627931.html

"According to Baxter Holmes and Zach Lowe of ESPN.com, a record-high 4,049 cases in Florida from Saturday — the third straight day that the prior record fell 'has raised concerns in many corners of the NBA, from players to team executives to the league office itself.'"

Yeah, it would raise concerns for me too. I hope the skaters are OK and stay safe.


Georgia experiences highest 24-hour case spike to date
https://www.valdostadailytimes.com/news/georgia-experiences-highest-24-hour-case-spike-to-date/article_b2be9380-b326-11ea-b861-ab558d8dac60.html
 
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Tony Wheeler

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,463
I put on my mask before I leave my apartment, but masks are not totally effective.
If you’re on an elevator and you have a mask and hopefully the other person does as well and they aren’t breathing down your neck or coughing/sneezing on you, you should be alright :)
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,774

An article about the challenge of getting tests & possible answers for respiratory-related deaths prior to mid-March. @SkateSand there are some quotes from Dr. Deirdre Amara, the Shasta County sheriff's forensic pathologist in northern California that you might find interesting? Trying to investigate two back-to-back deaths from children.
 
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once_upon

Voter
Messages
15,667
I wonder about the mysterious "vaping pneumonia" illnesses and deaths of young people earlier this year? December, January when we were anxious about all the vaping illnesses?

My son lives in Denver, his girlfriend works at Denver International airport, around that time vaping pneumonia crisis in January had a horrible viral infection (fever, cough, chest pain/tightness, muscle pain, fatigue). My son got it from her and called me several times a day wanting to know what to do. I suggested urgent care but he was too "tired" to go. They both wonder if they had *********, especially since she had contact with lots of international travelers before the restrictions were in place.
 

clairecloutier

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,746
Howard Forman (radiologist and professor) predicted on Twitter that we may be seeing 50K new cases a day within 2 weeks. He said the CV positive test rate in Orlando, FL, right now is 16.5%. Scary. :cry:
 

SkateSand

Cat Servant
Messages
675

An article about the challenge of getting tests & possible answers for respiratory-related deaths prior to mid-March. @SkateSand there are some quotes from Dr. Deirdre Amara, the Shasta County sheriff's forensic pathologist in northern California that you might find interesting? Trying to investigate two back-to-back deaths from children.
I'm convinced what struck our office in January was C V. To have everyone down for weeks and then the relapses was just so unusual.
 

Sparks

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,364
I wonder about the mysterious "vaping pneumonia" illnesses and deaths of young people earlier this year? December, January when we were anxious about all the vaping illnesses?

My son lives in Denver, his girlfriend works at Denver International airport, around that time vaping pneumonia crisis in January had a horrible viral infection (fever, cough, chest pain/tightness, muscle pain, fatigue). My son got it from her and called me several times a day wanting to know what to do. I suggested urgent care but he was too "tired" to go. They both wonder if they had *********, especially since she had contact with lots of international travelers before the restrictions were in place.
I wonder about that too. I have a friend who's son got sick in January from "vaping pneumonia". He was very sick and was hospitalized.
 

Cachoo

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,822
Nightly insomnia roundup of bad news:

Young people drive CV19 numbers up.


The rising number of *********-19 cases in states across the country is due in large part to more young people contracting the *****, raising alarms among public health officials.

The spikes suggest young adults are both more likely to hold front-line service jobs that put them at risk and more likely to ignore some of the social distancing practices advised by health experts.

The most troubling hot spots are now concentrated in Sun Belt states such as Arizona, California, Florida, North Carolina and Texas. All five of those states have reported more than 1,000 new cases per day this week, making them the only five states to break the four-digit barrier during that period.


Georgia is not immune to CV19 spikes.

Hutchinson’s home sits on the Troup County side of West Point, one of several ******** disease hotspots in rural Georgia. This month, the number of confirmed *********-19 cases has more than doubled to 863 in Troup, where 24 people have died from it. Georgia, meanwhile, is one of 20 states where the numbers of newly reported cases have grown over the last 14 days, according to a New York Times analysis.

Teens test positive after spending senior week at the Delaware beaches.


At least three teens who participated in recent senior week activities at the Delaware beaches have tested positive for *********-19, prompting state health officials to call for widespread testing among teens who took part in similar activities.

The three positive cases resulted from a Dewey Beach rental unit, where more than a dozen teens were living, the Delaware Division of Public Health said in a release issued late Friday night.

While at the beach, state health officials said the teens attended several "crowded" gatherings in Rehoboth, potentially exposing as many 100 people or more to the contagious respiratory *****.


I've developed a little healthy skepticism about NYS's glowing numbers, but if they're accurate, we had 15 fatalities, which ranks us 16th overall in deaths yesterday.


This was what we noticed last week at work: Previously we were hearing from people who were present at cluster sites and called for a test. The past week was many, many young folks who were concerned that they had contact with acquaintances who tested positive and were requesting tests. They were not symptomatic but that does not mean they are not infected. It FEELS like it is everywhere.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,774
This was what we noticed last week at work: Previously we were hearing from people who were present at cluster sites and called for a test. The past week was many, many young folks who were concerned that they had contact with acquaintances who tested positive and were requesting tests. They were not symptomatic but that does not mean they are not infected. It FEELS like it is everywhere.
Did they get the tests? My sister said that during the post-outbreak drive up testing her health care system did this past weekend, there were still not enough available. When people drove up in the same car with symptoms, only one would be tested & both were advised to quarantine.
 

skatfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
4,885
Just in time for the spike in AZ cases, the funding for free tests in my county ran out. We’ll be flying blind on things. Our Mayor hasn’t mandated masks either.
 

once_upon

Voter
Messages
15,667
The way society/long term care facilities/government has long treated our vulnerable populations has always been appalling. I dont know what the answers are, but we cant do what we did with the mentally I'll in the 60's. We cant just dump them out on the streets.
 

Cachoo

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,822
Did they get the tests? My sister said that during the post-outbreak drive up testing her health care system did this past weekend, there were still not enough available. When people drove up in the same car with symptoms, only one would be tested & both were advised to quarantine.
We cover the state of Kansas except for the Kansas City area. What I find aggravating is that there is really not a coherent testing strategy statewide or nationwide. If you live in Wichita and want a test you can get one. But that policy is not the same in every county in the state so I know of callers who have been turned down in other counties. We need a cohesive nationwide strategy—-not this patchwork bs.
 

once_upon

Voter
Messages
15,667
I think we still have plenty of test kits. They've opened a couple more sites in the county. We live across the road from the convention center where a test tent is set up. You still have to qualify to get an appointment at this one, I think there are at least two walk in sites in other parts of the city.

The one in the convention center parking lot usually has a line of cars waiting (except Sunday they dont test on Sunday). I dont think the National Guard is helping anymore, but dont know.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,774
Personal rant:
Umatilla County has 34 new cases today. It's escalating now (from @4 a day after the shutdown of the Tyson plant and at the time of reopening to @24 yesterday and 34 today). The county is failing to track the cases back to where they are coming from (failed to do so with 90% last week, I think, from one article I read?). Which is not a surprise because they weren't successfully tracking enough cases back to where they were coming from when the county was approved for Phase 2. (They had no business being approved for Phase 1 when they were either, IMO). The county commissioners were all in a hurry to reopen & pretending they should be able to do this because their numbers were low compared to much more populated counties. Meanwhile, the regional paper was all applauding their pushing to reopen. And the governor let them do it, probably because she didn't want to fight the Republican politicians & public opinion east of the Cascades. But if you know Umatilla County or look at the demographics, this was always a very susceptible group of communities with large vulnerable populations. Meanwhile, the county was top 6 per capita this week and yet not included among the 7 counties mandated to wear masks. There are now cases on the reservation. And, of course, case numbers are now going up in the county next door. I am so :angryfire. Umatilla County never met the criteria to reopen and should have been forced to wait just like all the larger counties.
End rant.

China Suspends Poultry Imports From Tyson Foods Plant In Arkansas
https://www.npr.org/sections/********-live-updates/2020/06/21/881408578/china-suspends-poultry-imports-from-tyson-foods-plant-in-arkansas

(Gee, now there is a new reason to keep your workers safe, huh? Question--is the article saying that China suspended imports from this plant because when China amped up its testing, the ***** was found on the food? After traveling all the way to China? Or did China suspend imports because the workers at the plant tested positive & China therefore blocked their product? I feel this is a pretty significant question that the article should have answered).

Yes, Wearing Masks Helps. Here's Why

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/21/880832213/yes-wearing-masks-helps-heres-why
 

Susan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,303
From the 6:00 news (Sunday)
Montgomery county - 49 cases reported; 7 hospitalizations
Clark - 14 cases; 1 hosp.
Warren - 13 cases
Greene - 4 cases
Miami, Auglaize, Preble and Mercer - 1 case each
Total - 44,808; Deaths - 2,700
There's a map on one of the cable stations that shows states and level of increases and decreases. Ohio showed a decrease, then we were Steady for awhile, now we are in the 5-10% increase range.

Last 24 hours - 546
21 day trend - 442
There were 700 on 6/18.
Deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions are all lower than the 21 day trend, but those will follow in a couple weeks.
 

Theatregirl1122

Needs a nap
Messages
22,731
Is there any data on whether there’s an issue with false positives for the YKW test? I know there is for the anti-body test and I’ve heard a couple of people suggest that there is for the test for the active infection, but I couldn’t find anything and wasn’t sure if they might be conflating the two. I know the test for the infection has a false negative issue, especially when self administered.
 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
Staff member
Messages
50,289
Is there any data on whether there’s an issue with false positives for the YKW test? I know there is for the anti-body test and I’ve heard a couple of people suggest that there is for the test for the active infection, but I couldn’t find anything and wasn’t sure if they might be conflating the two. I know the test for the infection has a false negative issue, especially when self administered.
Some people where my son works (a federal installation) have tested positive, but on retests were negative. He said that everyone who tests positive in his workplace gets three tests as a matter of course.

Not that this answers the question of how many false positives there are, but it does indicate (at least to me) that the government must think the percentage of false positives is pretty substanial if that is policy.

An article about false test results that also doesn't really answer the question but is interesting nonetheless.

Several people I knew were sick in the early part of the year with a nasty respiratory infection. Every one of them is convinced it was the crud. But several of the several have had antibody tests and none of them have any antibodies. Now there are some problems with the antibody tests, but it seems to me that if you have 10 people who were sick and tested and all 10 of them come up with the same negative results, then there's a better than good chance that they did not have the crud.

Given how small the percentages are for antibodies anywhere, I think it's more likely that most of the infections of winter and spring were the usual viral crap that comes with winter and spring.
 

manhn

Well-Known Member
Messages
13,092
Canada’s most well known false positive was a positive up in Nunavut. It’s the only province or Territory to not have any positive cases, so this one was a big surprise because the person had not gone anywhere. It ended up being false. Nunavut remains ********* free.
 

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