News & Experiences continued

Miezekatze

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,110
I think in Germany Hanta is still a relatively big problem and my state is the most "dangerous" .

Last year there were over 1000 cases, in 2018 it were under 300.

But I think what makes it less dangerous is that it can't be submitted from human to human.

I think most people get it when cleaning sheds or garages or something like that.

My ex-boss got it some years ago, he's a hunter, they are considered a risk group too.

I always use it as excuse to not clean the riding stable too thoroughly :shuffle: :lol:
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
14,702
Herd immunity estimates are entirely dependent on assumptions around heterogeneity of the population. Some scientists have made the case that herd immunity can be achieved with 25% or even less of the population being infected. Stockholm could already have achieved herd immunity. (The "gotcha!" media keeps asking the chief epidemiologist whether Sweden has achieved 60%, but the reality is that the threshold is likely much lower and Sweden may already be there.)

Herd immunity doesn't mean that no one will get the *****, ever. It means that there will not be uncontrollable outbreaks.

Scientists are taught to be conservative and risk-averse, and it's not altogether a bad thing, but the assumptions about transmission rate and heterogeneity seem way "off."
 

rfisher

Let the skating begin
Messages
63,153
I had to run into a garden center to pick up a basil plant yesterday. I had on a mask as did about half the customers. I was in line to check out and the guy in front of me was waving his arms and telling the clerk how masks didn't do anything. Repeatedly. Nether I nor the clerk responded.i didn't care if he wore one or not, or if he got sick. I just wanted him to STF up and move on so I could pay for the plant.when we just stared, but didn't give him any feedback, he finally left. It took me 2 minutes for me to pay and get out compared to 5 minutes of listening to idiotic blather. Commerce could resume if the idiots of the world weren't so stupid. If you don't want to wear a mask, fine, but keep you damn mouth shut, do your business, and get out of the way so others can do theirs.
 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
Staff member
Messages
50,337
Herd immunity estimates are entirely dependent on assumptions around heterogeneity of the population. Some scientists have made the case that herd immunity can be achieved with 25% or even less of the population being infected. Stockholm could already have achieved herd immunity. (The "gotcha!" media keeps asking the chief epidemiologist whether Sweden has achieved 60%, but the reality is that the threshold is likely much lower and Sweden may already be there.
According to whom? Which scientists have claimed that 25% of the population is sufficient? Who says Stockholm may have achieved herd immunity already?

And yes, as has been noted earlier in thus discussion, small scale herd immunity is possible, although rare, which is why I specifically asked you to cite cases of widespread herd immunity without vaccination. This is a *********. I don't really care if Stockholm has achieved herd immunity unless that is somehow supposed to translate worldwide. I still expect you to support your claim. According to whom?

Who says all this? What is their evidence? Sources? Citations?

Herd immunity doesn't mean that no one will get the *****, ever.
Did someone claim that it did? I certainly never labored under any such misconception. See measles, for example. And past posts here specifically talked about at least one reason that herd immunity absolutely does not mean that no one will ever get it again, ever.

So I think everyone already understands this.

Scientists are taught to be conservative and risk-averse, and it's not altogether a bad thing, but the assumptions about transmission rate and heterogeneity seem way "off."
Evidence, Louis.
 

allezfred

#EpidemiologistsNotEconomists
Staff member
Messages
56,434
For any smokers on here :smokin: who might be thinking about quitting now would be a good time....


 

Miezekatze

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,110
The latest I read on antibody studies in Sweden is that they did a test in Stockholm and the result was that only about 7,3% of Stockholmers had antibodies.



Generally I think the the discussion about reaching herd immunity without a vaccine are sort of pointless, because all countries that are successfully fighting the ***** have done so by suppressing it's spread and now opening up things while trying to "fire distinguish new clusters" as fast as possible. Obviously that's the exact opposite of what Louis wants and it still seems to be working well, so I don't see any country changing their approach. And even Sweden says their goal has always been to flatten the curve. If they had wanted the ***** to spread as fast as possible I'm sure they wouldn't have introduced social distancing rules and banned events with more than 50 people.
I think they sort of hoped that while flattening the curve more young and healthy Stockholmers would get herd immunity as a by-product, but obviously that didn't work out all that well.

7,5% (in one big city, not in the whole country!) is a bit more than what happened in countries like Germany or Austria (even though in the first German hotstop the number of people with antibodies turned out to be 19%, but that's just a tiny region), but it's not really enough to help much. I think the ***** is very infectious , but also not THAT infectious that it's transmitted quickly when people are careful and I assume that most Swedes actually listened to their governments social distancing guidelines and there are simply not THAT many people anywhere that are desperate to catch the ***** like Louis.
 

FGRSK8

Toad whisperer.....
Messages
19,404
Scientists are taught to be conservative and risk-averse, and it's not altogether a bad thing, but the assumptions about transmission rate and heterogeneity seem way "off."
Part of my 40 year career was in in research, some of it in a top secret environment (yes weather has top secret applications).

Conservative? Nope. We were aggressive and thinking outside of the box. That is how breakthroughs occur.

Risk averse? Nope. We go where the data and results take us. Many, many, many times we have thrown out courses of action based on what the results show us. Where some scientists do go wrong is the reluctance to give up an initial assumption because it is their pet theory. They will do the experiment over and over to prove themselves right but in the end have to give it up due to the preponderance of the data saying they are wrong.
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
14,702
For any smokers on here :smokin: who might be thinking about quitting now would be a good time....
" Tobacco kills more than 8 million people globally every year. More than 7 million of these deaths are from direct tobacco use and around 1.2 million are due to non-smokers being exposed to second-hand smoke."

So second-hand smoke kills 300-400% more "innocent people" than *********-19 :shuffle: :shuffle:.

And smoking altogether kills 2000% more people than *********-19.

Glad we're clear on the real p*ndemic. :saint:
 

Japanfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
23,451
" Tobacco kills more than 8 million people globally every year. More than 7 million of these deaths are from direct tobacco use and around 1.2 million are due to non-smokers being exposed to second-hand smoke."

So second-hand smoke kills 300-400% more "innocent people" than *********-19 :shuffle: :shuffle:.

And smoking altogether kills 2000% more people than *********-19.

Glad we're clear on the real p*ndemic. :saint:
Sources, please?

A smoker might do harm or cause death to a few people, not more. Especially these days, given the restrictions on smoking.

A person with or carrying the BB could do exponential harm. That's the thing. It can spread from person zero to exponential numbers.

The same is not true of smoking.

I say give it a rest, @Louis. Enjoy what civil liberties are available to you as economies are opening up.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,515
One place where herd immunity could be looked at (although there may be ethical problems) is prisons.

Prisons throughout the U.S. have had unchecked epidemics of CV19. Their population is small, homogenous (a word I could never have spelled properly without Google) and it should be fairly easy to trace the people who were exposed and who they interacted with after exposure. I'd think rate and length of infection would be observable, as well as learning percentages of asymptomatic, mild symptomatic, serious illness and fatalities within the facility.

I don't know if prisons are being looked at that way, and my assumption is many states are choosing to ignore the prison CV19 issue altogether. But I have thought about what could be learned from them concerning the spread and the severity of the disease untreated/undertreated.
 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
Staff member
Messages
50,337
Generally I think the the discussion about reaching herd immunity without a vaccine are sort of pointless, because all countries that are successfully fighting the ***** have done so by suppressing it's spread and now opening up things while trying to "fire distinguish new clusters" as fast as possible.
I think it's pointless because I don't think it can happen, and that if it can, the cost would be too high for almost everyone.

But I am open to considering evidence.

My experience with research scientists is that they are quite aggressive in their research and very careful in the their conclusions, which is exactly as it should be if you ask me (and I am sure most of you didn't). Research is only as good as its replicated results, after all.

Sources, please?
Louis is quoting the WHO from allezfred's link. The section you highlighted is clearly visible in the link preview.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,515
The number of pneumonia deaths in Florida in 2020 far exceeds its average number.

As compiled by the CDC, in the first six months of 2020, Florida has logged 5,248 deaths due to pneumonia. Of those deaths, 960 were identified as being connected to *********-19. That leaves 4,288 pneumonia deaths which were reported, but not logged against the *********-19 deaths. Looking at the period between 2014 and 2018, Florida has averaged 2870 deaths from pneumonia … over an entire year.

Meanwhile, since I've been known to complain about the Hasidic community in my vicinity, here's an article about how many of the residents have been participating in blood drives, especially significant for those whose blood shows antibodies.

For weeks, volunteers from Hasidic and Orthodox Jewish communities in New York and New Jersey have turned out in droves to donate plasma for ******** patients and now blood as well. Berish Schoenbrun, who organized Sunday’s blood drive and earlier collections for the Kiryas Joel Volunteer Emergency Medical Service, said roughly 345 other Kiryas Joel residents donated plasma in five previous trips to Bethlehem, Pa. - where Miller-Keystone Blood Center is based - and New Brunswick, N.J.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,820
The situation with the outbreak in the prison here appears to have been checked or at least improved. The number of new cases have been down (I think below ten) in that county the last several days. One of the problems that was cited there was prisoners' reluctance to be tested as the inmates are generally wary & did not want to have their movement even more restricted than it already was. One prisoner died so perhaps some viewpoints have changed about that.
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,515
The following comes from the daily briefing email the New York Times sends. I think the information is important, so I'm putting it here.

Can you get the ***** from a surface?
As lockdowns lift, many more Americans are going to come in contact with surfaces that other people have touched: doorknobs, tabletops, shopping bags and more. And I know that many people find these situations confusing.
The early scientific advice seemed to encourage people to treat surface contact with utmost seriousness. More recently, research has suggested that few people get the ***** this way. The main transmission mechanism instead appears to be close contact with someone who has the *****, like talking face-to-face or sitting nearby in an indoor setting. Those situations expose people to enough of a “viral load” to become infected.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently tried to clarify its guidance on the subject: “It may be possible that a person can get *********-19 by touching a surface or object that has the ***** on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this isn’t thought to be the main way the ***** spreads.”
So how should you think about surface transmission?
It doesn’t seem to be common, but it does seem possible. It is the most likely explanation for an outbreak at a Chinese shopping mall, as my colleague Tara Parker-Pope points out.
One thing to understand is that merely touching ***** particles isn’t enough to become infected. You probably have to touch many particles — and then touch your face. Objects that a small number of other people briefly touch, like groceries and shopping bags, seem to present a very small risk. That’s why I have stopped wiping down every object that comes into my house, as I was when the lockdown began.
In the spectrum of risk, you should worry more about face-to-face conversations and extended time in indoor spaces with people who are outside your household. “We don’t need to be paranoid — you can still play catch or press an elevator button — we just need to wash our hands and be mindful,” Tara told me. She has just published a guide to surface transmission, and I recommend it.

 

once_upon

Voter
Messages
15,753
I'm not as obsessive about surfaces as I was at the beginning, and it is a respiratory droplet transmission. But I still wipe down surfaces.
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
14,702
:confused: people die from other stuff too so we shouldn't worry about this other thing that kills people too?
We as a society allow people to smoke despite their actions killing 1.2 million each year, but we won't allow people to -- for example, go to church -- despite far fewer people dying from *********-19?

People keep telling me this is so different than smoking, driving, etc. I don't think it is at all, and your own links are confirming it!

One place where herd immunity could be looked at (although there may be ethical problems) is prisons.

Prisons throughout the U.S. have had unchecked epidemics of CV19. Their population is small, homogenous (a word I could never have spelled properly without Google) and it should be fairly easy to trace the people who were exposed and who they interacted with after exposure.
Except heterogeneity of a population reduces the risk of transmission and thus reduces the threshold to achieve herd immunity. Some scientists (and people can google if they're interested) are estimating herd immunity can be achieved with as little as 7% of the population affected, depending on population heterogeneity. I don't think it's that low, but I also think it's much lower than the 60-90% cited by a lot of epidemiologists.

This is what makes me sad about this situation...

Billionaires Are Getting Richer During The *********-19 ********* While Most Americans Suffer


Not a billionaire (I'd "settle" for deca-millionaire... on my way!), but yes, I know how to make money in any situation, and I'm not ashamed of it. I mean, someone has to pay for all this stimulus. :lol: :EVILLE:
 

skatfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
4,892
We as a society allow people to smoke despite their actions killing 1.2 million each year, but we won't allow people to -- for example, go to church -- despite far fewer people dying from *********-19?

People keep telling me this is so different than smoking, driving, etc. I don't think it is at all, and your own links are confirming it!
1. Tobacco is a regulated substance and smoking is regulated in many, many jurisdictions. It is a known carcinogen and cause of other illnesses. We provide programs to help people stop smoking and doctors encourage patients to stop. It contains an addictive substance which makes that hard.

2. As far as I can tell, a smoker can only affect themselves and people who are physically near them, and there is no smoking transmission after that. It is not an infectious disease.

3. People can also determine whether there is smoke in a confined space and choose whether they want to be exposed to smoke, unlike a ***** that is invisible and infectious people who can be asymptomatic.
 
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Jenny

From the Bloc
Messages
21,242
We as a society allow people to smoke despite their actions killing 1.2 million each year, but we won't allow people to -- for example, go to church -- despite far fewer people dying from *********-19?

People keep telling me this is so different than smoking, driving, etc. I don't think it is at all, and your own links are confirming it!
You can't smoke in church. In fact, in most of the world, the places you can smoke are restricted to the open air, designated smoking areas or private homes.

If we imagine an infected person - or potentially infected person - to be like someone who is expelling smoke, then yeah, no church for you, no elevators, no movie theatres or restaurants or stores, no offices, and in many cases, no entering private homes if the residents ask you not to.

As for second hand smoke in open air situations, maybe the YNW isn't that different either - if an infected, or potentially infected person, comes into your airspace, then yeah, you're at risk.

Which is why social distancing, limiting gatherings and personal PPE are good ideas. Especially while we a) do not have a vaccine, b) do not know have a very very clear idea of how people become infected (ie the gray area in between someone sneezing in your face and totally isolating yourself), c) achieve herd immunity in some way that is not yet clear because we do not know if anyone is ever immune to this, and d) understand the long term affects on people who have it, which may not be known for some time.
 
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