News & Experiences continued

Dobre

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7,279
Oregon has just spent a week with new cases each day numbering less than 50. This has not happened since March 25th. Also, we have had 4 days below 30 this week. Previously, we had only had one day below 30 since March 24th.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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34,689
@Susan1's post reminded me... the homemade wipes? Paper towels aren't as sturdy as whatever is used in the store-bought wipes. They stick to each other more too.

Here's an article from Slate about what people feel comfortable doing. They interviewed 6000 people who read Slate.


Is anyone else seeing those ads for Care.com? If I'm living somewhere that I can't send my kids to day camp or school, I am certainly NOT going to allow someone I don't know to come to my house and watch them.

Can you cite some examples of widespread herd immunity that has been achieved without a vaccine?
The Bubonic plague? Only 50-200 million people had to die to do it. (Give or take, depending on whose estimate you use). The only problem with using that as an example is that they finally got it to end by... wait for it... Quarantining!
 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
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49,944
The Bubonic plague? Only 50-200 million people had to die to do it. (Give or take, depending on whose estimate you use). The only problem with using that as an example is that they finally got it to end by... wait for it... Quarantining!
That's actually an interesting case.

Bubonic plague is still among us. People don't get it in large numbers because it's just not all that contagious.

So why did so many people die in the Middle Ages? The Black Plague is not well understood even now. It might not even have been the bubonic plague. And it wasn't one outbreak or even one outbreak with multiple waves; it continued to come and go for four centuries. Quarantines certainly played a part in control, but it is generally believed that improved sanitation was really the key to controlling or possibly eliminating it.

Or maybe not. As I said, the Black Plague is not well understood.

I did a lot of research about this when I taught a Lit of the Middle Ages class a while back. Really interesting subject. Little of what I learned in researching the subject was what I had vaguely believed about the Black Plague beforehand.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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nd it wasn't one outbreak or even one outbreak with multiple waves; it continued to come and go for four centuries.
That's what I thought but the articles I found when I went to verify my dates only talked about one outbreak that lasted 7 years.

Stupid Google. :D

Anyway, it killed a lot of people. Like 50% of Europe. :eek:
 

Prancer

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I don't know what caused the Tudor era sweating sickness to vanish but I'm very glad I don't have to deal with it.
Another interesting and not well understood disease. Hanta *****? Dengue fever? Some variant?

Anyway, it killed a lot of people. Like 50% of Europe. :eek:
It surely did. And not just in Europe; the Middle East and North Africa also sustained large population losses.

But I haven't seen any evidence that herd immunity is what caused it to finally recede/die out/whatever it did, nor have I see any expert suggest that this was so. But I am open to sources that say so. Bring them on. As far as I can see, "herd immunity" as a concept did not exist until the advent of vaccines, but it's not my field and I am always open to learning something new.

There is some evidence that some type of immunity developed and survived from the plague and that this type of immunity might help some resist AIDS and possibly other things, but I am not very familiar with that research.
 

MacMadame

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But I am open to sources that say so. Bring them on.
When something dies out, isn't that herd immunity by definition? How else would it die out if there were still enough hosts to infect? These are not rhetorical questions. I am really curious as to how that can happen.

I do think that herd immunity is supposed to be when enough of the population is vaccinated that the few people who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons (too young, dealing with other illnesses), are relatively safe. People are warping the concept to justify not quarantining.
 

Sparks

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11,123
When something dies out, could it also be that it was less virulent or people learned more about prevention (ie: hygiene, dealing with rodents, etc.), thus lessening human hosts.
The HantaV! rus in NM was first unexplained, then it was found to be from dried dear mouse feces. Increased rodent populations depend on weather, climate and availability of food.
This one seems to be extremely virulent and spread by casual contact.
 

JasperBoy

Stayin inside
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4,584
I hoped to see my Canadian senior's $300 ********* bonus today. My OAS payment was deposited and I thought the ********* bonus would be included. But no. Now I wonder how it is going to be delivered?

ETA Sorry, I forgot about substituting ***** for YKW. Corrected now.
 

gkelly

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15,212
When something dies out, isn't that herd immunity by definition? How else would it die out if there were still enough hosts to infect? These are not rhetorical questions. I am really curious as to how that can happen.
I think if it is isolated so that no more non-immune hosts get exposed.

But if it still exists somewhere, e.g., animal hosts, then any humans who come in contact with it in the future would still be vulnerable because they have no immunity.
 

Orm Irian

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674
When something dies out, could it also be that it was less virulent or people learned more about prevention (ie: hygiene, dealing with rodents, etc.), thus lessening human hosts.
The HantaV! rus in NM was first unexplained, then it was found to be from dried dear mouse feces. Increased rodent populations depend on weather, climate and availability of food.
This one seems to be extremely virulent and spread by casual contact.
SARS died out because people became sick before they became infectious, and once we realised that it became much simpler to cut the transmission chain by isolating and treating anyone showing symptoms before they had the chance to pass the infection on. Cholera hasn't died out, but epidemics have been halted in different places at different times by improved sanitation and public health education aruond hygiene. So yes, figuring out how to prevent people from getting sick to start with can absolutely help a disease to die out either locally or globally!

But as the conversation has come back around to herd immunity: herd immunity as such - where only a few people are vulnerable to a disease to start with but are still protected because the vast remainder of the population aren't, so it's much harder for that disease to get to them - is an artefact of the vaccination era. It may have been attained in small, more isolated regions and groups for short periods of time, I'm pretty sure I remembered reading about that happening somewhere. Maybe Iceland, with measles? But you can't pass immunity on to your children, so within a generation or so, once more of the population isn't immune than is, it's gone again.
 

rfisher

Let the skating begin
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62,451
Another interesting and not well understood disease. Hanta *****? Dengue fever? Some variant?
Hanta is a very interesting little pathology. I did a lot of research on this when I was writing my dissertation looking at the impact of severe environmental change. There is excellent tree-ring data to support a mega drought (one of several) that hit Mexico at the same time as did the Spanish. The Spanish documents discussed a disease that is very similar to Hanta (not that there weren't all the European pathogens wrecking havoc), but this was something the physicians had never seen. There was also a mini-drought in the 4 corners region of the US southwest in the early 90s that resulted in an explosion of deer mice which carry the flea which causes Hanta. It's a complex population ecology event. Not only do the mice population explode, but they go looking for food in peoples houses. A number of Navajo and Hopi died of Hanta because they lived in remote areas of the reservation and other cultural issues. So, when you put the data together, there is supporting evidence that the Aztec population got hit by a perfect storm of bad things. Which also happened to the Native Americans in NE Arkansas when the de Soto expedition made their appearance. I went looking for the hanta vector in NE Arkansas and found it. It's small, but it's still there. But, most people don't have wild mice in their houses because the European house mouse out competes them so AR isn't really a vector for hanta outbreaks like the SW. The argument was compelling enough that my advisor didn't insist on any rewrite of the entire chapter. If you've ever written a dissertation, you know what that means. :lol: It was one of the more fun chapters to research.
 

once_upon

New condo owner
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About 25 years ago there was an isolated incidence of Hanta ***** in a man who had been doing house renovation. For a while, everyone was wearing filter masks when cleaning garages or basements. But it seemed to have been an isolated case.
 

pat c

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12,426
Another interesting and not well understood disease. Hanta *****? Dengue fever? Some variant?
Odd that you should mention that. A young man (36ish, married w/young kids) died from hanta 2 weeks ago.
It was all over my fb feed to be careful with shop vacs and grain vacs.
 

Prancer

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When something dies out, isn't that herd immunity by definition? How else would it die out if there were still enough hosts to infect?
As I said before, it is generally believed (but not proven) that the Black Death was eradicated through improved sanitation methods. I believe this is true of many diseases that once ran rampant in the world.

SARS died out because people became sick before they became infectious, and once we realised that it became much simpler to cut the transmission chain by isolating and treating anyone showing symptoms before they had the chance to pass the infection on.
I just read an article about that. The mysterious disappearance of the first SARS *****, and why we need a vaccine for the current one but didn't for the other

Cholera hasn't died out, but epidemics have been halted in different places at different times by improved sanitation and public health education around hygiene. So yes, figuring out how to prevent people from getting sick to start with can absolutely help a disease to die out either locally or globally!
This to me seems to be the key now--prevention. That's why it is so :eek: to me to see so many people bllithely ignoring all prevention guidelines and just going about their business like this is over. Or maybe they think they will be happy to get this disease because they will help us reach herd immunity. I don't know. But that is where I think we in the US have a real failure of leadership when it comes to re-opening.

But as the conversation has come back around to herd immunity: herd immunity as such - where only a few people are vulnerable to a disease to start with but are still protected because the vast remainder of the population aren't, so it's much harder for that disease to get to them - is an artefact of the vaccination era. It may have been attained in small, more isolated regions and groups for short periods of time, I'm pretty sure I remembered reading about that happening somewhere. Maybe Iceland, with measles? But you can't pass immunity on to your children, so within a generation or so, once more of the population isn't immune than is, it's gone again.
Yes, that was something discussed in one of the links I posted earlier. And that's been my understanding to date--that herd immunity exists because of vaccination. The only arguments I have seen presented to the contrary of that have been made by anti-vaxxers. But again, it's not my field, so @Louis may set me straight here.
 

Orm Irian

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that's been my understanding to date--that herd immunity exists because of vaccination. The only arguments I have seen presented to the contrary of that have been made by anti-vaxxers. But again, it's not my field, so @Louis may set me straight here.
Mostly what I see isn't anti-vaxxer rhetoric so much as just people in general - not necessarily here - misunderstanding what herd immunity means. I keep seeing people talk about it as if it's a natural process of 'almost everyone gets sick and then gets better and everything goes back to normal because they can't get sick again', when in fact it's a deliberate public health strategy of artificially creating immunity in the majority to protect the minority (eg immunocompromised people), because even with a disease moving through the population naturally not enough people will get sick to create that effect! It's been frustrating me for a while, I should have posted about it in the Things That Are Annoying Me tbh thread!
 

once_upon

New condo owner
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Rachel Maddow is talking about Omaha's increasing number of C-19 patients in ICU. Rickets is asking Omaha hospitals what they might do for increase staffing needs. My healthcare system has said staffing is a concern.

Last weekend a popular restaurant was violating restrictions...serving over 100% of capacity. Yet said they had plenty of spacing to do 6 ft distancing. I've driven past that restaurant before. No fricking way they could do that.

Yeah I'm staying in place.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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This is an interesting story about how the pandem1c is impacting people who are traveling around the world camping vans:

 

Dobre

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7,279
Oregon has just spent a week with new cases each day numbering less than 50. This has not happened since March 25th. Also, we have had 4 days below 30 this week. Previously, we had only had one day below 30 since March 24th.
And now the chart--which is usually updated by 1:00 p.m & which I checked earlier--has been changed & says we are back up to 71 new cases today. Le sigh.

41 cases in Multnomah County where there has reportedly been an outbreak at a business. (Details to come later, per the article I just read).
 
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PrincessLeppard

Holding Alex Johnson's Pineapple
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26,869
I read somewhere, and I'll need to look it up again, but the number of people who are immunocompromised or otherwise have prior conditions that make them vulnerable to YKN is 93 MILLION in the US. So when we say, "well, those people should just stay home..." Well, that's almost a third of the US.
 

skatfan

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4,776
I read somewhere, and I'll need to look it up again, but the number of people who are immunocompromised or otherwise have prior conditions that make them vulnerable to YKN is 93 MILLION in the US. So when we say, "well, those people should just stay home..." Well, that's almost a third of the US.
A member of my church board has lupus, is on the hydroxychloro-whatever drug for that, and now has YKW symptoms, and is awaiting a test result. She's gonna go viral about the drug should she test positive given our orange-face's claims of taking it.

There's an elderly couple in town who were in their house for days before being discovered by a housekeeper and are now in the ICU in the big city with YKW. And yet tons of folks running around without masks, eating in restaurants, etc.
 

once_upon

New condo owner
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14,615
I think I heard Dr. Anton (public health director in NE) say something to the effect that most of the deaths in Nebraska were long term care or elderly and thought that was a success. I'm sure he didnt realize what he said. I've thought he was inept before that statement but now feel like he is the usual idiot. It's ok to have loss of life as long as it doesn't personally affect you.

He is also the idiot who says you can take a nurse from anywhere and staff up. Staff up are his words. He means taking a nurse from any area and "staff them up to an ICU nurse". ICU nurse is a speciality that requires months if not years of experience. Not days like he thinks.
 

Dobre

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7,279
This is a poll so for what it's worth . . .

Back to School? 1 in 5 Teachers are Unlikely to Return to Reopened Classrooms This Fall, Poll Says
https://tinyurl.com/y9wautsm

The article references a second poll in which 6 of 10 parents "say they would be likely to pursue at-home learning options instead of sending back their children this fall. Nearly a third of parents, 30%, say they are 'very likely' to do that."


Note: I know a couple teachers that were already planning to retire that are retiring, but I've not heard this from anyone else yet. I think schools here are not really at the point where teachers know what their options will be regarding next year. Ditto for parents, really.

This quote showed up in my facebook feed today & it is probably accurate;):

Educators planning for next year like:
I am 100% certain that I am 0% sure of what I'm going to do.
 

overedge

G.O.A.T.
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27,808
I went to the nearby regional park today, which I hadn't been to since the stay-at-home order was put in place.

I guess I must have missed the public health memo about how the six-foot distance rule doesn't apply to people on bikes :mad: And there were lots of people walking in groups and paying absolutely no notice to where anyone else was walking or cycling.

I keep saying this, but the second wave of v*r*s is going to come sooner rather than later.
 

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