News & Experiences continued

MacMadame

Staying at home
Staff member
Messages
33,768
There have been a lot of predictions/guesses, but wasn't one of them that the total C V deaths in the U.S. would be between 100,000 and 200,000? I think that's going to be the correct prediction.
I do too.

It's both sad and infuriating at the same time.
 

BaileyCatts

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,532
dumb question but ..... I found a little 4 oz. plastic bottle to fill with hand sanitizer to just keep in the cup holder of my car so I always have it when I get in/out of car if I stop at a store. Now that the scorching heat of summer is upon us, that's not going to like ... burst into flames or anything sitting in the hot sun all day, is it? :shuffle:
 

SkateSand

Cat Servant
Messages
429
dumb question but ..... I found a little 4 oz. plastic bottle to fill with hand sanitizer to just keep in the cup holder of my car so I always have it when I get in/out of car if I stop at a store. Now that the scorching heat of summer is upon us, that's not going to like ... burst into flames or anything sitting in the hot sun all day, is it? :shuffle:
I guess you need to know what the melting point of the plastic container is. So you might end up with a puddle of melted plastic. Can you move it to a spot in the car where it would be better protected or insulated from the heat?
 

manhn

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,846
More dumb hand sanitizer questions: When my small bottle of hand sanitizer runs out, can I refill it from my big bottle of hand sanitizer? Will the hand sanitizer "spoil"?
 

SkateSand

Cat Servant
Messages
429
More dumb hand sanitizer questions: When my small bottle of hand sanitizer runs out, can I refill it from my by big bottle of hand sanitizer? Will the hand sanitizer "spoil"?
I think the alcohol content in it will probably keep it from spoiling.
 

Sparks

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,870
I have a question.
Is there a good reliable study on how long the v! rus lasts on each surface? Cardboard, glass, plastic, paper, cloth, etc.
 

once_upon

New condo owner
Messages
13,923
Phase 2: large venues (I assume like a race track) 25% of capacity up to 3000 with social distancing between groups of 6. Wedding venues up to 50% of facility capacity but no dancing, stay at tables groups 6 ft apart. Venues up to 3000 but in my county any event 1000 must have Public Health Director approval
 

allezfred

#EpidemiologistsNotEconomists
Staff member
Messages
55,927
Total deaths in the U.S. are 102% of "expected" deaths in normal times (excluding *********-19), and in the past two weeks, total deaths are 84% and 40% of expected values.


In the UK -- the worst-hit country in Europe -- deaths are slightly down versus expected values.

I understand that these large numbers of deaths reported in the media are upsetting. To anyone who has studied death statistics or mortality (e.g., with an actuarial background), these are not large numbers. They're normal numbers. And they suggest that most of the people who died from *********-19 would've died anyway - from the regular flu, from the on average severe comorbidities, or even from old age. The average age of death is no different than the average US life expectancy. This is a sad situation that has been blown entirely out of proportion by the media and politicians with questionable motivations.
Can't say anything about the US (although New York City deaths are up 300%), but the Financial Times is reporting that death rates are up 37% in England and Wales (and that's hospital deaths only). Those are not normal numbers. The numbers for Italy, France, Belgium, Spain etc are not normal.

 

aka_gerbil

Rooting for the Underdogs
Messages
1,903
dumb question but ..... I found a little 4 oz. plastic bottle to fill with hand sanitizer to just keep in the cup holder of my car so I always have it when I get in/out of car if I stop at a store. Now that the scorching heat of summer is upon us, that's not going to like ... burst into flames or anything sitting in the hot sun all day, is it? :shuffle:
Ethanol is highly flammable. Definitely no on keeping it in the car on hot days.


More dumb hand sanitizer questions: When my small bottle of hand sanitizer runs out, can I refill it from my big bottle of hand sanitizer? Will the hand sanitizer "spoil"?
Yes, you can refill from the big one. The bottle should have an expiration date. The ethanol dissipates over time. The bottle I bought to take to Canadian Nationals in January 2018 is just going to expire next month, so it’s good for at least a couple of years.
 

acraven

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,915
@BaileyCatts, I once left a bottle of suntan lotion on the dashboard of a rental car in Tucson, Arizona. The bottle puffed up, and when I (foolishly) removed the cap, very hot lotion spewed all over me and the car. I was lucky not to get burned. If I hadn't been wearing glasses, I imagine I could have ended up with eye damage.
 

Dobre

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,027
I usually carry my sanitizer in the trunk during the summer. It stays cooler there. (Ditto with jolly rancher candies during the school year;)). We don't have the hottest climate, but it does get over 100 degrees F upon occasion.
 

overedge

G.O.A.T.
Messages
27,507
The provincial government here is requiring restaurants booking "large" groups (maximum of six) to take the phone number of at least one person in the group. This is so the health authority can do contact tracing if there's a case of the v*r*s related to the restaurant's operations.

A local politician posted on Twitter that this requirement is the start of "how we give our freedoms away". This person is a former provincial Attorney-General, so this is an area they should be somewhat familiar with.

Many Twitter users pointed out that this person made their post using the Twitter iPhone app, which is regularly collecting a LOT more personal information than just the user's phone number :lol:
 

manhn

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,846
I had a question about that. Do people give out their numbers if they sit at a table at a Starbucks or Burger King? Or just a "traditional" restaurant like, say, Olive Garden? I am fine either way.
 

skatfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
4,668
The provincial government here is requiring restaurants booking "large" groups (maximum of six) to take the phone number of at least one person in the group. This is so the health authority can do contact tracing if there's a case of the v*r*s related to the restaurant's operations.

A local politician posted on Twitter that this requirement is the start of "how we give our freedoms away". This person is a former provincial Attorney-General, so this is an area they should be somewhat familiar with.

Many Twitter users pointed out that this person made their post using the Twitter iPhone app, which is regularly collecting a LOT more personal information than just the user's phone number :lol:
not to mention using apps like Open Table
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Staff member
Messages
33,768
But what's second wave going to do?
They'll get a new set of numbers for that. Assuming there is one. I think we can avoid it if we're smart. (Which means the US is doomed, unfortunately, but other countries that are set up to smash down a hot-spot as soon as it pops up should be okay.)

I have a question.
Is there a good reliable study on how long the v! rus lasts on each surface? Cardboard, glass, plastic, paper, cloth, etc.
Yes there have been two. Keep in mind, that they only studied if C19 could be detected. Experts say that the half-life of viruses is such that there is unlikely to be enough viral load after a much shorter time than the studies showed it was detectable. But I don't think we know the exact viral load for C19 yet.


I usually carry my sanitizer in the trunk during the summer.
I keep mine in my purse.
 

BaileyCatts

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,532
So I think I'll be taking that little bottle of sanitizer outta my car. :wideeyes: Glad I didn't have to learn that one the hard way. I have one in my purse, but I always toss my bag/purse in the trunk, and if I stop at a store I'm not taking my purse in and don't want people to see it in the trunk while I get the bottle in my purse (cause I'm paranoid that way :lol: ). Yes I know .... I be cuckoo, but with my luck someone will pop my trunk when they see me leave my purse. :D I guess I'll just start to remember to pull it from my purse when I come home from work in case I do stop somewhere.
 

overedge

G.O.A.T.
Messages
27,507
I had a question about that. Do people give out their numbers if they sit at a table at a Starbucks or Burger King? Or just a "traditional" restaurant like, say, Olive Garden? I am fine either way.
AFAIK it's for anyone who's part of a group at any kind of restaurant. I'm not sure if it's tied to making a reservation, though.
 

quartz

almost, but not quite
Messages
13,668
We have kept pump bottles of sanitizer in our vehicles since the kids were little. They are in the pocket of the door, so out of direct sun, and never have had issues.
 

overedge

G.O.A.T.
Messages
27,507
I see some links online claiming that hand sanitizer will blow up in a hot car, but the links seem to be from sources like Fox News and the clickbaity Daily Mail. So I would guess you're pretty safe :lol: But maybe keep it out of the direct sun to be extra safe.
 

mag

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,173
Total deaths in the U.S. are 102% of "expected" deaths in normal times (excluding *********-19), and in the past two weeks, total deaths are 84% and 40% of expected values.


In the UK -- the worst-hit country in Europe -- deaths are slightly down versus expected values.

I understand that these large numbers of deaths reported in the media are upsetting. To anyone who has studied death statistics or mortality (e.g., with an actuarial background), these are not large numbers. They're normal numbers. And they suggest that most of the people who died from *********-19 would've died anyway - from the regular flu, from the on average severe comorbidities, or even from old age. The average age of death is no different than the average US life expectancy. This is a sad situation that has been blown entirely out of proportion by the media and politicians with questionable motivations.
I find it hard to believe that total deaths are only at 102% of last year. The source you linked comes up as an error. Would you please provide the source for this stat?
 

BittyBug

Exemplifying model behavior
Messages
22,357
Not only that but it has been widely discussed that since people are staying home they are far less exposed to the normal hazards of like like car and other accidents, so death rates from non YKW are significantly down.
 

Louis

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,166
The UK has been double-counting cases and inflating numbers of *********-19 positive cases by up to 20%.

I think this is a silly error rather than politically motivated, but I'm still in disbelief that something this basic could happen.



Tens of thousands of *********-19 tests have been double-counted in the Government’s official tally, public health officials have admitted.

Diagnostic tests which involve taking saliva and nasal samples from the same patient are being counted as two tests, not one.

The Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England each confirmed the double-counting.

This inflates the daily reported diagnostic test numbers by over 20 per cent, with that proportion being much higher earlier on in the crisis before home test kits were added to the daily totals.

Almost 350,000 more tests have been reported in Government data than people tested since the start of the *********.
 

BaileyCatts

Well-Known Member
Messages
8,532
So what is this 'contact tracing' thing all about? I keep hearing things like they have to 'hire hundreds of contact tracers' but I never hear exactly what it is?
 

missing

Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
Messages
3,102
The CDC is saying 35% of CV19 positives are asymptomatic.

(CNN)In new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of ******** infections are asymptomatic.

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have *********-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of ******** transmission is occurring before people feel sick.

The agency cautions that those numbers are subject to change as more is learned about *********-19, and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes. Still, the agency says its estimates are based on real data collected by the agency before April 29.


That's a piece of information I've been very curious about.

Other scientists disagree with its mortality predictions, thinking they're too optimistic (based on my reading of the article).
 

Simone411

Do stand. Do stand six. Do stand six feet from me.
Messages
16,700
With all the news, info, etc. strictly being about the Beer Burden, I wanted to bring awareness to NF once again since people are and will be going to beaches, our lakes and rivers. With the summer approaching, the waters will be much warmer and the flesh-eating bacteria thrives in those type of conditions.

I found a questions and answers article regarding NF. The article is from last year and is dated July, 2019. The article is about the NF being in Florida waters. This, of course, is before the Beer Burden. However, it's not by any means to be overlooked because of the statistics which still remains; one out of every three people that get NF will die.

Flesh-eating bacteria in Florida waters: Three Things You Need To Know

Q: What are my chances of catching it if I go in the water?

A: Most healthy adults will be able to fight off a necrotizing fasciitis infection without hospital care.

It's the elderly, children and people with compromised immune systems or issues like liver disease who are more susceptible to the infection—if they have open wounds or lesions. People in these categories should avoid going in warm saltwater or brackish water, hot tubs and swimming pools. They also should avoid eating raw seafood, like crab, oysters or sushi.

But the easiest way to avoid contracting the infection is to wash your hands regularly.
It mentions that people with compromised immune systems are more susceptible if they have open wounds or lesions. I had a small tiny open wound on the back of my upper left thigh. That's how the NF entered my body. However, I was completely healthy with no compromised immune system. That's why my doctors were surprised that I got the disease. They did tell me this much. If I wouldn't have been as healthy as I was, I would have more than likely died. I was one of the lucky ones because I almost did die. Instead, I received what my doctors proclaimed was a miracle.

Q: How seriously should I take this?

A: Even with treatment, one in three patients die from necrotizing fasciitis, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since 2010, the agency estimates between 700 and 1,200 people a year have contracted the infection in the United States. But cases have gone up in the last year in Florida, local physicians said.
Now here's what I want people to pay attention to because of the symptoms.

Those who have the infection will feel flu-like symptoms of fever, dizziness and cold sweats right away. Severe complications are common, like sepsis, shock and organ failure.
I had those flu-like symptoms along with a high fever, dizziness and cold sweats. I woke up that morning in April of 2011 with those symptoms, and somehow managed to drive to my doctor's office. By the time I got there, I could barely walk.

The severe complications I had during all the surgeries I had while being in an induced coma were sepsis, shock and organ failure.

This is the very reason why I am posting about this. With all the flood waters due to all the rain we've had this year and with hurricane season coming up, it's important to keep this in mind especially if you have a cut or open wound.

There was a man that got NF in the Houston flood waters from Hurricane Harvey while he was rescuing people that were stranded in their homes. The NF entered a cut on the man's arm, and he nearly died. A lot of flesh had to be debrided from his arm and he also got sepsis. He was lucky because he still had his arm and it didn't have to be amputated.

I hope that everyone understands why I'm once more bringing attention to this, and it's because of the flu-like symptoms and fever that occurs with NF.
 
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