News and Updates about Russia's War against Ukraine.

reut

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Following exercise activity earlier this month, Belarus has announced the deployment of special operations forces along the Ukraine border, as well as air defence, artillery and missile units to training ranges in the west of the country.
The presence of Belarusian forces near the border will likely fix Ukrainian troops, so they cannot deploy in support of operations in the Donbas.


Lukashenko continues being putin's bitch. Words can't describe how much I despise this man...
 

DORISPULASKI

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How Lukashenko of Lukashenko

Tired UA soldiers, when they are rotated out of areas with heavy fighting, can be sent to the Belarus border to watch Lukashenko's troops do precisely nothing, except help Lukashenko do his required sucking up to Putin.
 

Dobre

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"Russian troops attempt to break through Ukrainian border into Sumy Oblast. Russian troops used mortars, grenade launchers, machine guns, and assault rifles while sending a group of saboteurs into the region on the morning of May 16, the State Border Guard said. The border guards managed to repel the attack."


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"McDonalds announced that it has made the final decision to leave #Russia, the company's business in Russia will be sold."


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"During the recent debacle at the Siverskiy River pontoon bridge, Russia’s 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade sustained 485 casualties (out of a total of 550) and lost 80 vehicles to Ukrainian artillery"

 

DORISPULASKI

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A good essay on why Poland so strongly supports Ukraine. The comments are good, too

 

reut

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Situation in Azovstal is critical, there are many wounded soldiers who can't get medical help.
Recently they shared photos to urge “the entire civilized world” to help with their evacuation.
These photos were made by Dmytro "Orest" Kozatskyi.
Today I found his Instagram and checked his posts.

He is so young. It broke my heart...

This photo... 💔

russian media reported earlier today that a few soldiers from Azovstal came out with white flag, this was not confirmed by Ukrainian side. And just recently they reported that wounded soldiers will be moved into DNR, not confirmed by Ukrainian side. (And this is really, really bad scenario)
 

Meoima

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European Gas Prices Fall as EU Drafts Plan for Russian Payments
The European Union’s plan to offer energy firms a way to pay for Russian natural gas without breaching sanctions helped send prices lower for a second day as invoice deadlines loom. Benchmark gas futures in the Netherlands fell as much as 5.5%, extending Friday’s 9.2% drop. The European Commission is set to offer buyers new guidance on how to pay for gas, satisfying President Vladimir Putin’s demands while avoiding a potential violation of sanctions imposed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
I can not pass the paywall, anyone can give us more details on this issue? How can they satisfy Putin yet avoid violation of sanctions at the same time?
 

DORISPULASKI

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I had wondered why Putin & Russians were getting worked up because Ukraine won Eurovision, when Russia was not even in the contest. :confused:

But This is rich:


Apparently, Russia tried to hack the vote to cheat to make Ukraine lose, and the hackers got caught. :duh:

:lol:
 

reut

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Updates from Azovstal.

The Ukrainian unit holed up beneath the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol said on Monday its garrison was fulfilling orders to save the lives of troops, an apparent sign that the longest and bloodiest battle of the Ukraine war had come to an end.
Reuters saw about a dozen buses apparently carrying Ukrainian fighters leaving the plant on Monday. It was not possible to determine how many people were aboard. Some 600 fighters have been estimated to be inside the vast Soviet-era plant, including dozens of wounded.
"In order to save lives, the entire Mariupol garrison is implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people," the Azov Regiment said in a social media post.
Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar told Ukrainian television: "Any information can harm the processes that are taking place ... Inasmuch as the process is under way, we can't say what's happening right now."

 

Andrey aka Pushkin

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I am not comfortable with the current dynamics.

Turkey blocking NATO entry of Sweden and Finland with aggressive wording. Hungary blocking oil embargo.

Now is not the time to play for personal ambition.
The proverb is "crow won't take out a crow's eye".
You can't trust an autocrat to fight against an autocrat.
 

reut

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So it translates to: they are getting the fighters out?
Did not expect that!
russians claim they all will be POWs, wounded will receive treatment first.
Ukrainians claim - currently not officially - wounded were exchanged to russian soldiers (but still going to DNR not to Ukraine?). Also, there were from ~1000 to over 2000 people there, does Ukraine even has this number of soldiers to exchange?
Azov posted message that they did what they were ordered to do by their high command.
Everybody is waiting for Zelenskyy's address tonight, he is supposed to give formal explanation.

Summary of current events here:
"This is a developing story."
 

reut

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(via meduza) Channel One reporter writes on her telegram that for today the operation is finished and from tomorrow morning they will continue taking them out. She dismissively calls them "сидельцы" (literally "those who sit").
Soldiers who were holding this plant against all odds for 82 days were just "sitting" there, you see.
 

Hedwig

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(via meduza) Channel One reporter writes on her telegram that for today the operation is finished and from tomorrow morning they will continue taking them out. She dismissively calls them "сидельцы" (literally "those who sit").
Soldiers who were holding this plant against all odds for 82 days were just "sitting" there, you see.
What does it make those who could not bring them to surrender? The „just shitting there“?
 

Meoima

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Defence expert Mikhail Khodaryonok admits Russia is geopolitically isolated from the world and that even India and China's support is not iron-clad Khodaryonok also urges Russia to refrain from saber-rattling, especially around Finland's borders.
Video with subtitle: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882?s=20&t=Bf7zaayK0bV6N1S0c9N0Iw

This map shows the location of Russian resettlement camps for Ukrainians

U.S. believes that Russia fired a half-dozen missiles toward Yavoriv Military Base in the past 24 hours, likely from a submarine in the Black Sea: senior U.S. defense official. U.S. has seen no indications that Russia's missile strikes against Yavoriv Military Base caused casualties: senior U.S. defense official Russia's last attack on Yavoriv on March 13, where U.S. used to train Ukrainian troops in country, killed up to 40 and wounded 134.

"Russia has likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing it to integrate forces from private military companies and militias with its regular army, the Institute for the Study of War reported."
 

MacMadame

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I'd say the point is that Russia is not a sound investment for international investors right now.
Also, they can say it's the same menu but anything that requires supplies from the company won't be the same and over time it will gradually diverge even more. I think the "we'll make our own MickeyDs" is just bluster.
 

Meoima

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Eastern Ukraine Update: Russian troops reportedly conducted ground assaults towards Lyman, Bakhmut, Kurakhove, Shandrygolove, and around Donetsk City on May 16. These assaults, however, continued to be largely ineffective.
Russian forces continued offensive operations through Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, making limited gains. The Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces in the area are focusing on securing territory from the direction of Bilohorivka, continuing attempts to seize Severodonetsk, and taking control of the highway to Lysychansk.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces did not conduct active ground operations in Severodonetsk and instead heavily shelled Ukrainian positions in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area. This is consistent with ISW's previous assessment that Russian troops are likely increasingly unable to commit to a full-scale encirclement of the area east of the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve highway and are opting for a shallower encirclement with artillery support.
Ukrainian forces in the area are reportedly destroying Russian communications routes and railway bridges between Rubizhne and Severodonetsk to disrupt further Russian offensives on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Meanwhile, Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in any direction from Izyum on May 16 and focused instead on regrouping in preparation of renewed offensives, likely toward Slovyansk.
Ukrainian forces are continuing to mount attacks against Russian positions in the Izyum area, and the Ukrainian General Staff claimed that Ukrainian troops destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Izyum on May 16. Such targeted Ukrainian attacks are likely putting continued pressure on Russian logistical capabilities around Izyum and contributing to the disruption of any planned Russian offensives in this area.

Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.

Re article above:
If true, this UK Guardian article is seriously important at the political-military level.
What that means is as follows:
1. Putin is not doing his job as President.
2. Putin is not paying attention to his own personal security.
3. Putin is preventing competent Russian military commanders from doing anything right.
People mostly attribute #3 to Hitler, but the more recent example was U.S. Pres. Lyndon Baines Johnson during Vietnam playing company commander from the White House.
One of the old military history texts I've read suggested senior military commanders are a 2x2 matrix with one axis Intelligent/Stupid and the other Energetic/Slothful. It suggested the best commanders were Intelligent/Slothful because they only acted when they absolutely needed to and then did so intelligently. The worse combination was Stupid & Energetic because such commanders acted often, stupidly, throwing good after bad.
LBJ seemed to be that utterly disastrous combination of Stupid & Energetic during Vietnam. Putin seems to think he is the Intelligent/Energetic commander who controls the battlefield while in real life is neither that intelligent nor that energetic.
So Putin thinks he controls the battlefield...but Ukraine actually does. Again - if the Guardian story is true and not some sort of Psywar Operation gambit - then the combat in Ukraine may end much sooner than we think.
The Ukraine-Russia Armistice & Peace treaty afterwards will be a completely different matter. That needs someone to negotiate with. The Putin regime falling will leave a long, unstable, Russian interregnum.
Source https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1526391564871794688
 

reut

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U.S. believes that Russia fired a half-dozen missiles toward Yavoriv Military Base in the past 24 hours, likely from a submarine in the Black Sea: senior U.S. defense official. U.S. has seen no indications that Russia's missile strikes against Yavoriv Military Base caused casualties: senior U.S. defense official Russia's last attack on Yavoriv on March 13, where U.S. used to train Ukrainian troops in country, killed up to 40 and wounded 134.

Lviv Oblast Governor Maksym Kozytsky said the explosions heard earlier on May 17 targeted the Yavoriv District's military training ground but were successfully deterred.
Kozytsky said additional information will be provided in the morning.


While the world is still struggling to agree on sanctions (and russians successfully get round some of the existing ones)...

UNICEF: Russia’s war may lead to ‘catastrophic levels’ of malnutrition among children globally. Rising food prices due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, among other factors, may leave up to 600,000 children without life-saving treatment.

 

reut

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Chornobaivka 20:0 :D

Ukraine destroys Russian fuel depot near Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” said on May 16 that Ukrainian forces also defeated Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, tanks, military equipment, and 29 personnel in the area.

 

reut

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Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that 264 Ukrainian soldiers were evacuated on May 16 from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to hospitals in Russian-occupied Novoazovsk and Olenivka.

Of those evacuated, 53 heavily wounded soldiers will receive medical treatment in Novoazovsk, while 211 will be transferred to Olenivka to take part in an upcoming prisoner exchange, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

“We are continuing efforts to rescue the defenders who remain at Azovstal,” the General Staff said. Earlier reports said that some 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers were at the plant, which remained the only Ukrainian-controlled area of Mariupol.

In his video address to the nation on the night of May 16, President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that “Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive.”

According to Zelensky, Ukraine is continuing negotiations to reach an agreement that will allow Azovstal defenders to return home. “This work needs delicacy and time,” said the President.


Zelenskyy's address w/ English subtitles:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CdoqX-IIvtv/
https://www.facebook.com/zelenskiy.official/posts/3078128155770873
 
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reut

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russians claim they all will be POWs, wounded will receive treatment first.
Ukrainians claim - currently not officially - wounded were exchanged to russian soldiers (but still going to DNR not to Ukraine?). Also, there were from ~1000 to over 2000 people there, does Ukraine even has this number of soldiers to exchange?
Azov posted message that they did what they were ordered to do by their high command.
Everybody is waiting for Zelenskyy's address tonight, he is supposed to give formal explanation.

Summary of current events here:
"This is a developing story."

This update is disconcerting:

Ukraine’s Deputy PM: 52 severely wounded Azovstal defenders will be exchanged for Russian POWs once their condition stabilizes.
Meanwhile, Russia hasn’t confirmed its commitment to exchange the captured Ukrainian defenders of Azovstal.


In general, when there are talks about green corridors for besieged soldiers etc there is one case which is often mentioned. This happened in 2014 and is called Ilovaisk massacre.
You can read more about it here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk#Government_forces_retreat_and_massacre
 

Dobre

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"The US will support Ukraine's definition of victory. "Crimea and Donbas are Ukraine, and this fact will be of great importance when we decide on further support... But the decision is up to Ukraine," Kristina Kvien, acting US ambassador to Ukraine said"

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Advances by Russia around Lyman (in the Izyum area):

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Advances by Ukraine northeast of Kharkiv:

They've crossed the Siverskyi Donets river, which I assume is necessary if they are to impede Russian supply routes.
 

reut

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This update is disconcerting:

Ukraine’s Deputy PM: 52 severely wounded Azovstal defenders will be exchanged for Russian POWs once their condition stabilizes.
Meanwhile, Russia hasn’t confirmed its commitment to exchange the captured Ukrainian defenders of Azovstal.

...and it continues.

russian attorney-general's office asked their partners in crime supreme court to define "Azov" as terrorist organisation.
The moment this decision passes, "Azov" soldiers won't be defined as prisoners of war but as criminals of war that can't/shouldn't be exchanged.

Update: meanwhile russian state duma proposed to introduce back death penalty.

I'm terrified by what is happening (even though not surprised) and disgusted that they try to show this as if they act according to "the law".
The only war criminals and nazis here are definitely not "Azov"... :(
 
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Meoima

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Russia is “likely” increasingly reliant on indiscriminate artillery fires against Ukrainian cities due to limited targeting ability, and an unwillingness to risk flying combat aircraft into contested airspace, UK Defense Intelligence said. Russia is likely to continue to rely heavily on massed artillery strikes in effort to regain momentum in Ukraine’s Donbas: UK Defense Intel That could cause civilian harm: GR believes RU artillery damaged or destroyed 3,500 bldgs in Chernihiv region, 80% of them residential

Ukraine's top negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak announces peace talks with Russia have been suspended

The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia says that Elon Musk is a promising candidate for President of the United States
:blah:dud but he is not US natural born so... :p:p:p (what a relief).
 

reut

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Interesting thread about how pontoon bridge near Bilohorivka aka New Chornobaivka was destroyed:
A bit more details about the current situation there from Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration:
  • There are no more attempts to cross the river there;
  • When ru military leaders wanted to try the whole battalion, 500 soldiers, refused to do it;
  • It's understandable because the area looks awful with broken weapons, vehicles and lots of bodies just laying around;
  • Among other military vehicles that were destroyed there, there was a cutter boat which was involved in building pontoon bridge; they called this boat "Podmoskovye" (different name to Moscow region) :D Not sure I can "translate" this joke well, but size and importance of this ship vs warship "Moskva" is the same as Muscovites see those who live in the region.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPSyLZJKQaM (in Russian)
 
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