Nevada Primary Democratic Debate: What Happens in Vegas Gets Hysterical on Twitter

sk9tingfan

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2,959
That does not make me less qualified than you, unless you have something else to offer other than anecdotal evidence.

We'll have to follow the polls and see if his support is generalizable beyond his base as well as how Democratic Senate and other down-ballot candidates fare were he to be the nominee. Voters tend to split their votes when a controversial presidential candidate appears. While most Democrats would probably vote for Bernie, if he was nominated, many may just sit out voting altogether because he is too radical. Let's see what Nate Silver has to say.

By the way, I've worked inside multiple campaigns, including a 2018 one that turned an entire state from very purple to super majority blue.
 

VGThuy

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31,219
That does not make me less qualified than you, unless you have something else to offer other than anecdotal evidence.

We'll have to follow the polls and see if his support is generalizable beyond his base as well as how Democratic Senate and other down-ballot candidates fare were he to be the nominee. Voters tend to split their votes when a controversial presidential candidate appears. While most Democrats would probably vote for Bernie, if he was nominated, many may just sit out voting altogether because he is too radical. Let's see what Nate Silver has to say.

By the way, I've worked inside multiple campaigns, including a 2018 one that turned an entire state from very purple to super majority blue.
I’m not making definitive proclamations, so I was wondering what numbers show Bernie definitely would lose to Trump whereas other candidates would fare better. I think it’s way too soon because once the race for the general election happens, the whole tone changes and people will act differently and a lot of events can happen both domestically and internationally that will change the mood of the election. I was also confused by your statement about Bernie winning but losing the down home ballots for the Dems because if he wins, then he wins the EC, which means he won states. How can him winning states make the reps and senators on the ballots lose? That sounds more like a problem for those actual candidates. Unless I misread your statement.

Anyway,

DiBlasio has some choice words for Buttigieg like “smug” and how he needs to learn some “humility” following his loss in Nevada.

 

Vagabond

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I am sure that DiBlasio would do a good job of teaching Buttigieg how to be humble. After all, DiBlasio has much to be humble about. :shuffle:
 

VGThuy

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31,219
Back the question of whether any Dem candidates has that much more of a lead than any other for beating Trump, The NY Times cites a poll that says not really:

 

Coco

Rotating while Russian!
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15,042
In other words, you have no facts at hand to support your assertion.

Here, for comparison's sake, is the Pew Research Center's breakdown of the 2016 superdelegates by sex and race. Fifty-eight percent were men, forty-two percent were women. Sixty-two percent were white, thirty-eight percent non-white or "unknown."

Assuming that the division between men and women was roughly the same for whites as for non-whites, a clear majority of the superdelegates were not white men, let alone "old white men."

I would expect that the percentage of "old white men" among the superdelegates is lower this year than in 2016 because both the number and the percentage of Senators and Representatives who are Democratic women has increased since then.

If you have any hard facts to show that the makeup of this year's superdelegates is markedly different, please share them. Otherwise, I will continue to be skeptical of what you post here.
What is your basis for assuming the racial makeup of the male superdelegates is the same as for the female superdelegates?

That a rather huge assumption on your part.

Seeing as it is critical to the whole point you are trying to make, perhaps you should chill out.

This is a message board. People have perceptions, opinions, etc. Inevitably, people who take umbrage start demanding statistics as though it were an academic forum. It's a tiresome game, and as my post proves, anyone can play it. Stop pretending you're superior.
 

Peaches LaTour

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2,232
They might as well get to it because that point has already been reached.

Speaking selfishly as a Warren supporter, I sure as hell hope that she doesn't endorse Sanders. After enduring such hateful, demoralizing and misogynistic treatment from his supporters and surrogates, it would be so hard to bear having Warren kowtow to Sanders and do his bidding. May she go back to the Senate, continue doing plentiful good work there, and just stay out of the race and turn down any overtures from Sanders and his ilk.
When asked by Lawrence O'Donnell on his show the other night if she would endorse whomever became the nominee (if not herself), she immediately responded, "yes".

I cannot bear the thought of Gasbag Sanders getting the nomination. Truly, it makes me ill.
 
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el henry

#WeAllWeGot #WeAllWeNeed
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1,303
DiBlasio is calling someone smug:rofl: That does even more to convince me that Pete is genuine and empathetic.

no one I know in my IRL associations, from work to faith based to non profit to community outreach is excited about Sanders, except for the few Bros I know, and most feel as negatively as I do. FSU is an accurate reflection of the real world I live in.

I fear for our country. The “movement“ is not new, it is not something that has not been tried before, it is 1972 all over again. Except McGovern didn’t come off as the old guy screaming at kids to stay off his lawn.

oh well, it’s only three states.....
 

AliasJohnDoe

Headcase Addict
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5,479
I have friends who are all in for Bernie. But other people (and older people) I talk to say they will never vote Bernie. They'd rather sit home and not vote. It's very discouraging. I don't know what to think. I don't want Trump for another 4 years. The moderates need to come together and choose who they want instead of Bernie.

I personally want Pete.
 

snoopy

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Back the question of whether any Dem candidates has that much more of a lead than any other for beating Trump, The NY Times cites a poll that says not really:

We’ll find out for sure in November if Bernie can beat trump. People can keep on hanging on to other candidates if they want but it’s now Bernie’s nomination. No one can realistically catch up at this point with the field the way that it is.
 

VGThuy

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31,219
How come what diblasio says is pertinent but what carville says isn’t? :shuffle:
I came across this because I follow him on Twitter, live in New York and my last job worked closely with his admin in administering health care law for clients. Also, he's a current politician who participated in this primary while Carville is just watching from the sidelines and seems to have major chip on his shoulder about a few things. So does DiBlasio, but at least DiBlasio was responding directly to the things Buttigieg said after he lost Nevada.

That said, I'd argue Carville's comments on Sanders is pertinent because it reveals what the Dem establishment and what some more centrist voters probably feel about Bernie (and why they're panicking beyond belief and IMO have just come up with a new strategy to undermine him by creating an artificial sense of doom if he's nominated and willing it come true rather than having any data to show this is actually the case). Even beyond Bernie, Carville's comments show how many Dems actually feel about progressive policies and thus displays the different and combating ideas of what warring Dems feel that the Democratic Party should represent and thus showing us how the future of the Party is in question as it right now consists of people who really shouldn't be in the same party but are currently in the same party because the Republicans have gone off the deep-end and aren't providing more classical liberals a choice to join them unless they end up doing so and confirming what some progressives have suspected about them and their value system in the first place. There are other Parties, but this is America...and with our current structure, there is only room for two established parties.
 
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snoopy

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11,877
suspected about them. :lol: I can be clear so you don’t have to be so suspicious. Bernie will get my vote because trump, yep. If it was Mitt Romney running against Bernie instead of trump, I’d be Romney.
 

Louis

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13,729
Speaking about insinuations. I just said it’s funny how out of all the communities I’m a part of, FSU is the only one so negative towards Bernie.
Clearly you don't participate any in investment / personal finance communities :lol: :lol: ;).

I am sure that DiBlasio would do a good job of teaching Buttigieg how to be humble. After all, DiBlasio has much to be humble about. :shuffle:
DiBlasio is one of those people whose endorsement is enough to make me do the opposite. Pete did exactly what he needed to do - attack Sanders hard and try to position himself as the non-Sanders choice in this race.

We’ll find out for sure in November if Bernie can beat trump. People can keep on hanging on to other candidates if they want but it’s now Bernie’s nomination. No one can realistically catch up at this point with the field the way that it is.
I don't think we're there yet - but we could be there after Super Tuesday.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
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55,580
I’m not making definitive proclamations, so I was wondering what numbers show Bernie definitely would lose to Trump whereas other candidates would fare better.
This sounds like the tactics of climate deniers (albeit coming from a positive motivation). You know perfectly well there are no numbers that would definitely show Bernie would lose to Trump.

And you asked for arguments to back up assertions and then never addressed my post giving my basis for making a statement about Bernie losing and/or the Dems losing Congress.

I don't think you want to hear it and that's fine but everyone who is concerned that Bernie would lose is not a doomsayer fool.

If you don't like what you hear here, go to where you hear what makes you feel good. None of us can do more than donate a few dollars and cast our votes so feeling bad about the situation is of no use.

And don't mind me while I laugh bitterly at the idea that Bernie is the most progressive candidate in the race and everyone should be happy he destroyed Warren's chances by getting in the race backed by the part of the left that thinks only economics matters and changes the subject when sexist oppression of women comes up.

I don't know anyone who supports Bernie, nor do I know anyone obsessively dissing him. What I do know is a diverse group of strong feminists who are still supporting Warren. But I guess we need to get behind the man now. Just like we've been told by "the left" all along. Shut up and get with the plan, women. This is about beating Trump. We need a man to do that.
 

PRlady

Nerdy flack
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34,488
Last night, my scenario is that Warren stays in thru Super Tuesday, gets some delegates but not enough to overtake Bernie. She throws her support to Sanders who names her his VP pic. He wins the nomination and narrowly beats Trump in November because he is demonstrating he’s the candidate to bring out POC and the young as well as appeal to the working class.

Sanders serves one term and declines to run again at 82, Warren does and serves a successful term after defeating Ivanka.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
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55,580
Last night, my scenario is that Warren stays in thru Super Tuesday, gets some delegates but not enough to overtake Bernie. She throws her support to Sanders who names her his VP pic. He wins the nomination and narrowly beats Trump in November because he is demonstrating he’s the candidate to bring out POC and the young as well as appeal to the working class.

Sanders serves one term and declines to run again at 82, Warren does and serves a successful term after defeating Ivanka.
:rofl:

Laughing at the Ivanka part. :lol:

I'm not sure at this point Warren will get many more delegates so her bargaining power with that is probably not happening. What I want from Warren is for her after Super Tuesday to say to Bernie I will endorse you IF you agree to abide by the already written process for the convention. If he agrees and she endorses him, he has a good chance of winning that convention, if not before.

But the one circumstance under which I can't support him (in the primaries) is if he is threatening to not respect the rules. That's what Trump does and we can't have that. He doesn't need to threaten that to win, and if he does threaten it he may undermine his candidacy more than help it.
 

PRlady

Nerdy flack
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34,488
He is rightfully suspicious that Dem infrastructure will ensure he doesn’t win the nomination and play with the rules to ensure the outcome. Listening to the ex-Clintonistas and ex-Obamites on TV, and second-hand to a friend’s son who works for the DCCC, he’s got a point.

One thing more damaging than Bernie as front runner is Bernie getting shafted.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
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55,580
He is rightfully suspicious that Dem infrastructure will ensure he doesn’t win the nomination and play with the rules to ensure the outcome. Listening to the ex-Clintonistas and ex-Obamites on TV, and second-hand to a friend’s son who works for the DCCC, he’s got a point.

One thing more damaging than Bernie as front runner is Bernie getting shafted.
If he is playing the same games as they do, then I don't give a fig which of them wins. Its all over then anyway.

Why don't you stop listening to hysterical people who are just afraid it will cost them :bribe: and status if Bernie wins.

If Bernie's campaign is that he has a right to smash all the rules because the party is corrupt, we're just fcked anyway. IS that how YOU think it is?

I think this kind of cynicism is how we got Trump and its a recipe for the breakdown of society for sure. I don't believe its that bad and I don't believe Bernie can't win through the existing process. I'm not that negative and pessimistic. Who's the doomsayer here?
 

PRlady

Nerdy flack
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If he is playing the same games as they do, then I don't give a fig which of them wins. Its all over then anyway.

Why don't you stop listening to hysterical people who are just afraid it will cost them :bribe: and status if Bernie wins.

If Bernie's campaign is that he has a right to smash all the rules because the party is corrupt, we're just fcked anyway. IS that how YOU think it is?
Not at all. But I would keep a close eye on establishment shenanigans. These people are rightfully afraid Bernie will lose. But they are also afraid there’s no room for any of them in a Bernie White House and they’re probably right.

ETA: this new video is fantastic and says it much better than I can! https://twitter.com/sunraysunray/status/1230295152155144192?s=21
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
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55,580
Not at all. But I would keep a close eye on establishment shenanigans. These people are rightfully afraid Bernie will lose. But they are also afraid there’s no room for any of them in a Bernie White House and they’re probably right.
Well I don't see how that negates what I said that Bernie should agree to respect the rules and not try to smash the convention if he doesn't have a majority.

I don't trust Bloomberg not to try to buy everyone and he might be entirely within the rules by doing so. I don't know what to think about that but not believing revolution is the answer to anything but people's privileged fantasies I'm not in favor of both sides tearing it all down. And if Bernie refuses to abide by the rules it certainly makes it even more likely no one will.

Demand transparency in the process and watch it closely but don't just throw up your hands as if its already failed.

And just to address those who are all starry eyed about what Bernie can do because People Power. The billionaires don't just hand over their wealth because someone wins an election, let alone a revolution. They double down on their hold on power and divide the people who have to chose between their paychecks and politics and the people power moment slips away. This is why incrementalism is the only way to progressive change.
 

Louis

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13,729
He is rightfully suspicious that Dem infrastructure will ensure he doesn’t win the nomination and play with the rules to ensure the outcome.
But HE seems to be the one playing with the rules, trying to be nominee if he wins one more delegate than his closest rival, even if in the 25-35% range. That's not the process they signed up for.

Look, I have no problem with Sanders being the nominee if he wins 50% of delegates, or if he wins 40%+ of the vote with a healthy gap between him and the next highest scorer. Otherwise, it's a brokered convention, which is what they all signed up to.

If he wins 35% of the vote, the Democratic establishment has the right and obligation to try to see if there's a coalition approach that can command a majority. This is the way virtually all governments in the world work.

If Bernie's campaign is that he has a right to smash all the rules because the party is corrupt, we're just fcked anyway. IS that how YOU think it is?

I think this kind of cynicism is how we got Trump and its a recipe for the breakdown of society for sure.
Agree 100%. I'm really :lol: :lol: that BlueRidge and I agree on both Sanders and Bloomberg.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
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55,580
Sanders isn't a Democrat, and I have doubts as to whether he is democrat. :shuffle:
Well this is what remains to be seen. But see my post in the other thread about what could happen if Sanders totally smashes the party.

I say he won't because he knows to win in November he can't totally alienate the rest of the party. Bernie is politically experienced. I say he compromises more than either his supporters or detractors expect.
 

PRlady

Nerdy flack
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34,488
Given that Bernie just won Nevada with a vote total surpassing Warren, Biden and Pete together, I’m not at all sure he’s going to the convention with a small plurality. Let’s see what happens Super Tuesday. Biden will get a mild bump in SC but the real story is California and Texas.
 

clairecloutier

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10,178
Not really getting the Twitter abuse in this thread! It’s not like only cultists and nutjobs post on Twitter. Most prominent columnists, writers, politicians, and political podcasters post regularly on Twitter.

Anyhow, here’s a interesting Twitter factoid vis-a-vis Warren:

 

el henry

#WeAllWeGot #WeAllWeNeed
Messages
1,303
When is it a new strategy to be afraid of Bernie’s electability and appeal to the general public? I’ve been afraid since day one and have said so.

It’s on Bernie to show he can win a general election composed of dastardly centrists and moderates, not the other way around. The unicorn of millions of new voters traipsing to the polls: prove it.

Bernie is not rightfully suspicious of Jackson B. Squat. He lost fair and square in 2016 and my vote was part of the reason he lost. My big money Eville Corporate Establishment vote:lol:

This year, he knew what the TES mins were going in. They haven’t been raised mid season. If he wins, he wins.

oh God, four more years:fragile:
 

snoopy

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11,877
Bernie is politically experienced. I say he compromises more than either his supporters or detractors expect.
I agree with this. Also, power is heady. he now has a taste of winning the whole enchilada and if he needs to tweak a little here or there to come out on top, I think he will.
 

VGThuy

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31,219
This sounds like the tactics of climate deniers (albeit coming from a positive motivation). You know perfectly well there are no numbers that would definitely show Bernie would lose to Trump.

And you asked for arguments to back up assertions and then never addressed my post giving my basis for making a statement about Bernie losing and/or the Dems losing Congress.

I don't think you want to hear it and that's fine but everyone who is concerned that Bernie would lose is not a doomsayer fool.

If you don't like what you hear here, go to where you hear what makes you feel good. None of us can do more than donate a few dollars and cast our votes so feeling bad about the situation is of no use.

And don't mind me while I laugh bitterly at the idea that Bernie is the most progressive candidate in the race and everyone should be happy he destroyed Warren's chances by getting in the race backed by the part of the left that thinks only economics matters and changes the subject when sexist oppression of women comes up.

I don't know anyone who supports Bernie, nor do I know anyone obsessively dissing him. What I do know is a diverse group of strong feminists who are still supporting Warren. But I guess we need to get behind the man now. Just like we've been told by "the left" all along. Shut up and get with the plan, women. This is about beating Trump. We need a man to do that.
Don’t mind if I ignore the false equivalency between me and a climate denier since you know climate deniers are the ones who are ignoring evidence and just pretend they have data to back up why believe climate change isn’t real or not man-made.

I also will ignore your rantings that somehow me challenging the assertion that Bernie will have much less of a chance against Trump than another candidate despite polls that don’t show that is some sort of anti-feminist message. That’s a misapplication based on irrational anger at society at large and has nothing to do with me, another educated woman making her choice...and I still haven’t decided who I am supporting But I do know it’s between Bernie and Warren.

I did read your post and still didn’t find it very convincing because it still mainly based on suppositions, but I did think the fact that some Justice Democrats candidates lost was convincing but I don’t think that in of itself means Bernie will lose to Trump. There are a lot of variables.

And I’m sorry but there is a lot of anger, bitterness, and doom in this thread because of who has been coming out on top.

So when does “Go Blue No Matter Who” begin? When only a moderate gets the nomination and all the progressives must get in line as per usual?
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
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31,219
Clearly you don't participate any in investment / personal finance communities :lol: :lol: ;).
I’m married to one who is in that community. ;) Let’s just say it’s not only Bernie many of them think would definitely lose to Trump but all of the Dems because the Dems all look weak and stupid and Trump’s numbers are good or at least good enough to market to the voters. In fact they seem the most scared of Bernie, which makes me think they think he has a chance subconsciously while they dismiss everyone else quite easily. They seem to hate Warren the most irrationally to the point they prefer Bernie which I don’t get and I think sort of relates to BR and the rest of us suspecting some misogyny.
 

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