July 2017 Ladies Gymnastics World Team Predictions

[haribobo]

Who do you predict to make the World team as of right now?

 

[tylersf]

It's too bad, some of the other 2012/2016 aren't gonna be ready this year.

 

[Fridge_Break]

I'm shocked Skinner isn't going for it this year, to be honest.

 

[Coco]

I thought she was?

 

[Fridge_Break]

I feel like I've read somewhere (probably Twitter) that she wasn't going to compete elite this year. Maybe I'm wrong and making stuff up in my head

 

[Erin]

@Fridge_Break, I read about Skinner here (have to scroll down quite a bit):
https://thegymter.net/2017/06/28/you-asked-the-gymternet-answered-168/

It might have been on Twitter too, but either way, seems to be confirmation that she isn't doing elite so I don't think you are making things up.

I'm a little curious to know what those unspecified reasons were for not wanting to do elite, but depending on what people look like at the U.S. Classic, there is no guarantee she is guaranteed a spot on the World team anyway. I'm most curious to see Jade Carey, who has been perhaps best described by my favorite blogger Spencer from the Balance Beam Situation as "No one has seen her routines since JO and yet she's definitely a 20 time Olympic medalist" Anyway, she supposedly has a Tsuk double and an Amanar, plus scored the highest US score all year on beam and floor at the American Classic. So if that's not a fluke (big IF), she could make a nice complement to Ashton Locklear.

Smith seems to be a consensus choice, in which case the last spot would be another all-arounder. McCusker has been the leading contender but she has been injured and I've heard may not compete at Classic (or if she does, only a couple events). So it will be interesting to see how everyone else stacks up. But it's still so early. May I remind everyone that at this time four years ago, Simone Biles went to Classic and was a total disaster. I think she fell on bars, beam, and floor, then withdrew from vault. I was questioning whether she should even go to worlds unless she really stepped up at nationals. Silly me.

Personally, I don't feel like anyone is a lock at this point, even Smith or Locklear, although I do think they are top picks.

 

[FiveRinger]

I can't be bothered with Skinner or Locklear after what they did when the Olympic team was announced.

 

[Erin]

I can't be bothered with Skinner or Locklear after what they did when the Olympic team was announced.

I assume by what Skinner did, you are referring to her retweeting messages of support that she should have been on the Olympic team over Gabby Douglas, including one that replaced Douglas's picture with her? I don't recall hearing any stories about Locklear behaving badly - what did she do?

Either way, Skinner isn't my favorite, but I'm ready to let the past be the past with that and make the decisions based on gymnastics. But in this case, it's a moot point since she isn't competing elite.

 

[Rob]

Locklear retweeted a "Gabby doesn't deserve it" tweet too, but took it down when she was called out.

 

[Winnipeg]

Was it fair to select Gaby or was it sour grapes? I thought she was great but am no expert in assessing gymnastics although I love to watch it.

 

[FiveRinger]

Considering that very few, if any, gymnasts had perfect performances at Nationals and trials, most especially Locklear and Skinner, taking Gabby should not have been that big issue. If no one had a perfect performance, I guess it does make the most sense to take the defending Olympic all-around champion.

 

[Bellanca]

Considering that very few, if any, gymnasts had perfect performances at Nationals and trials, most especially Locklear and Skinner, taking Gabby should not have been that big issue. If no one had a perfect performance, I guess it does make the most sense to take the defending Olympic all-around champion.

Sour grapes on the part of Locklear and Skinner. These ladies would have been better served had they decided to take the high road, but youthfulness and emotions, especially at that age, more often than not, can get in the way of a more gracious, levelheaded reaction which would have been most appropriate. Oh well, it's in the books. Can't cry over spilled milk forever.

 

[Winnipeg]

I agree that young people need some dispensation as they are not mature and they can't always act as adults. It is how they grow from these experiences that starts to show real character.

I thought it was rather funny the way that the vaulter from the US in the vault finals sat down on the fault and gave a funny expressions which was subsequently imitated by OBama when they met.

 

[her grace]

Was it fair to select Gaby or was it sour grapes? I thought she was great but am no expert in assessing gymnastics although I love to watch it.

Not to beat a dead horse, but there was a lot of discussion even on FSU over whether that decision was fair.

Skinner's scores from natls/trials added to the other 4 team members' scores added up to the highest scoring team (big hole on bars, but more than compensated with BB, VT, and FX), so one can see why she thought her non-inclusion was unfair. Locklear was the national champion on uneven bars and had consistently performed better and scored higher than Douglas on bars (the only event which Douglas competed in the TF at the Olympics) through the selection process. One can see why she thought her non-inclusion was unfair. Douglas had a bigger reputation and demonstrated ability to rise to the big occasions (but not at 2016 nationals or 2016 Olympic Trials). She also had the advantage of being a four-event gymnast with the ability to cover for her teammates had one or two of the other team members been injured. Both Skinner and Locklear did not have that; Skinner's bars were horrendous and Locklear only trained two events.

Regarding Skinner's and Locklear's reactions, it's interesting that what got both gymnasts in trouble were re-tweets. I can see why an athlete might think it's okay to re-tweet out a fan's message--see, someone else said I was robbed. But in Skinner's case that re-tweet contained racist imagery, which is never acceptable. I'm willing to cut Locklear a bit of a break because what's acceptable with this new media is still evolving, Skinner not at all.

 

[tylersf]

Gabby Douglas seems to have had a bumpy ride throughout her career even after she won the 2012 Olympic AA Gold all the way to the 2016 Olympics.

Before the 2012 Olympics, Gabby Douglas was never viewed as a contender for the AA Gold. I thought that she became a contender when she scored higher than everyone as a guest competitor at the 2012 American Cup.

At the London Olympics, she outscored Jordyn Wieber in qualifications, and the US team chose Gabby over Jordyn to compete in the AA. People in the forums were furious over USAG's decision. Even Gabby's Olympic AA win over Komova was controversial. Gabby's vault helped her to win. People were fuming over the result even when Komova gave away her chance to win on Vault when she took several steps during her landing. I saw some posts demanding that they strip Gabby of the gold and give it to Komova.

She did have media/endorsement success, but there were many racist social media posts where people were poking fun of her hair etc.. When she came roaring back in 2015 to take the AA silver at Worlds, she made a strong bid to be on the 2016 team.

Gabby seems to perform well when it counts and she does have the distinction of winning gold medals at 2 Olympics.

Considering that very few, if any, gymnasts had perfect performances at Nationals and trials, most especially Locklear and Skinner, taking Gabby should not have been that big issue. If no one had a perfect performance, I guess it does make the most sense to take the defending Olympic all-around champion.

 

[FiveRinger]

Gabby Douglas seems to have had a bumpy ride throughout her career even after she won the 2012 Olympic AA Gold all the way to the 2016 Olympics.

Before the 2012 Olympics, Gabby Douglas was never viewed as a contender for the AA Gold. I thought that she became a contender when she scored higher than everyone as a guest competitor at the 2012 American Cup.

At the London Olympics, she outscored Jordyn Wieber in qualifications, and the US team chose Gabby over Jordyn to compete in the AA. People in the forums were furious over USAG's decision. Even Gabby's Olympic AA win over Komova was controversial. Gabby's vault helped her to win. People were fuming over the result even when Komova gave away her chance to win on Vault when she took several steps during her landing. I saw some posts demanding that they strip Gabby of the gold and give it to Komova.

She did have media/endorsement success, but there were many racist social media posts where people were poking fun of her hair etc.. When she came roaring back in 2015 to take the AA silver at Worlds, she made a strong bid to be on the 2016 team.

Gabby seems to perform well when it counts and she does have the distinction of winning gold medals at 2 Olympics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gymna...#Individual_All-Around_Event_Final_Qualifiers
This is not true. Gabby outscored Jordyn in the qualifications, and earned her spot, which is why Jordyn Wieber was not in the finals. No one "selected" Gabby to compete in the finals. She and Aly Raisman were the top two scoring Americans after qualifications. Jordyn was fourth. Aly and Gabby were second and third respectively. Because of the two per country rule Jordyn was bumped.

 

[tylersf]

We have seen that in skating and gymnastics that even when athletes "earn" their spot, countries will bump off someone who qualified to be in the AA, or go to the Olympics in favor of an athlete deemed by the federation as the one who has a better chance of winning. I think we're both saying that Gabby outscored Jordyn in qualifications and deserved to be in the AA because those are the rules.

However, teams also have the right to bump someone off and replace an athlete whom they deem worthy to compete in the AA, because of their "body of work" or other reasons at a selection/qualification competition. Russia did that at the 1985 World Gymnastics championships where they bumped off Baraksanova (Qualified in 4th place overall/3rd on the team) and Mostepanova (Qualified in 3rd place overall/2nd on the team) in favor of Omelianchik (6th place qualifications/4th on the team) and Shushunova (7th place qualifications/5th on the team) who ended up tying for 1st AA, and also at the 1992 Olympics AA when they bumped off Roza Galieva who qualified in 8th place overall/3rd on the CIS team in favor of Tatiana Gutsu who qualified in 9th place overall /4th on the CIS team. Gutsu narrowly won the AA Gold over the USA's Shannon Miller.
In figure skating, at the 2014 US Championships, they didn't select Mirai Nagasu who, by the rules, qualified in 3rd place for the Olympic team, but chose 4th place finisher, Ashley Wagner, for the 3rd Ladies' Singles spot because of her body of work. In 2017, the USFSA made it clear that even someone who wins the National Championship may not be selected for a World or Olympic team to allow for the "body of work" concept. In my opinion, the body of work concept is also a way out to select a preferred athlete. I felt that in 2014, no matter where Ashley Wagner finished at Nationals, she was going to the Olympics. I'm also afraid that USFSA could play the same game in 2018 with possibly the same athletes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gymnastics_at_the_2012_Summer_Olympics_–_Women's_artistic_qualification#Individual_All-Around_Event_Final_Qualifiers
This is not true. Gabby outscored Jordyn in the qualifications, and earned her spot, which is why Jordyn Wieber was not in the finals. No one "selected" Gabby to compete in the finals. She and Aly Raisman were the top two scoring Americans after qualifications. Jordyn was fourth. Aly and Gabby were second and third respectively. Because of the two per country rule Jordyn was bumped.

 

[bardtoob]

@tylersf

Yeah, the fact that Komova was totally off the landing mat, despite not falling, by the time she finished saluting the judges during 2012 Olympic AA Vault is a pretty convincing argument for how she gave away the OGM.

 

[Rob]

Can a Federation just bump one of the two top qualifiers for the third qualifier for any reason or do they have to fabricate an injury?

 

[Erin]

Can a Federation just bump one of the two top qualifiers for the third qualifier for any reason or do they have to fabricate an injury?

They used to have to fabricate an injury (e.g. in 1992 when Roza Galieva had a "knee injury" and was replaced with Tatiana Gutsu) but that rule was changed before 1996 and now the federations can pull their athlete and put in someone else who is qualified if they choose to do so. E.g. in 1996, Alexandra Marinescu was pulled from the all-around for Simona Amanar, she didn't have to have a bogus injury. Although Octavian Belu gave an equally bogus excuse that Marinescu "didn't work as hard", when in reality it was that Amanar had fallen on compulsory beam but then got the highest score in team optionals so he probably figured Amanar had the best shot at a medal.

Allowed or not, the US has never to my knowledge pulled someone in place of someone else. And between the qualifying and the AA, no one was talking about them pulling Gabby for Jordyn, given that Gabby had beaten Jordyn at Olympic trials and unofficially at the American Cup (and come within .2 of her over two days at Nationals). People were wondering if Martha would pull Aly Raisman for Jordyn, but I think that anyone who followed the sport thought it was pretty unlikely given that it had never happened before. And given that precedent, I think we know the answer of whether it would happen in the future.

 

[Rob]

Yes, if you don't pull someone who has 1 bad event for the reigning World AA champ or reigning Olympic AA champ/World silver AA medalist, chances are you never will. Although maybe Valery Liukin will have different ideas.

 

[bardtoob]

The context is everything. I think if Marta was coaching for Romania or Valery was coaching for Russia, then, they would not give a second thought about replacing an athlete in the AA after the team final, they would just replace the athlete with whoever they thought could win, particularly if the athletes' training was state funded and administered in an authoritarian way.

However, Marta and Valery both run or have run gyms where families pay individually for athletes to train. In this context, it would be unconscionable to take the opportunity of one athlete away and give it to another athlete that did not earn the opportunity with performance when they paid comparable amounts, trained comparable amounts of time, and one did not screw up the opportunity.

(This does not mean they have not or will not leave an athlete off the team before the competition even begins when they do not believe the athlete has medal winning potential. This has been done since at like least 1992, and involves input from a committee.)

 

[FiveRinger]

USA Gymnastics went thru this with Kim Kelly in 1992 when she was announced as part of the team. Then they had a camp where she was performed well but she was bumped in favor of Wendy Bruce. That was horrible. To be named to the team and then for no real reason to be removed.....

 

[Erin]

Interestingly, the way Kim generally tells the story is that she was bumped for Betty Okino (for example, that's the way it's written up in Little Girls in Pretty Boxes). I always found that narrative odd, because even as an 11 year-old viewer, it was clear to me all along that Betty had petitioned through Nationals and Trials and was going to be on the team. Given that Betty had finished fourth AA at Worlds the year before and had World medals on beam from 1991 Worlds and bars from 1992 Worlds, I think they would have been crazy not to include Betty if there was any chance she could get healthy. Given that Michelle Campi was also injured at Trials and petitioning on to the team based on her Nationals performance (where she finished 3rd, more than .5 ahead of Kim), I remember thinking after Trials that the team would be Zmeskal, Miller, Strug, Dawes, Okino, and Campi with Kelly and Bruce the two alternates. I was a little surprised that Bruce was picked over Kelly when Campi was injured, but not completely. Just goes to show how sometimes it's easier to view things from the outside than in the middle of it I guess. That said, the selection procedures should have been more clearly spelled out, as they are now for the gymnasts.

Anyway, the fact that Kelly brings up Okino makes me wonder if she was the one not hitting her routines at the selection camp, but that she was selected anyway. If so, I can totally see why and I think her performances in Barcelona ended up justifying her selection - they may not have been as strong as in Indianapolis, but they were definitely better than what Kelly would have done. Campi's inclusion is more debatable, but since she didn't end up competing, it's a moot point. And if Kelly and Bruce were both hitting routines, I'm not sure that there is necessarily a super strong case for one vs. the other to be included on the team.

 

[FiveRinger]

The whole thing was bizarre. And to add insult to injury, USA Gymnastics paid for Kim and her mom to go to Barcelona, where she visited Olympic Village, sat thru endless interviews, and watched the competition from the stands. The same competition she was cut from. The whole thing made national news. It was so ugly and horribly cruel.

 

[danafan]

The Olympic selection rules in 1992 allowed for a training squad of 8 to be named, then the final team of 6 to be selected later. So technically Kelly wasn't bumped for anyone.

Okino was IMO the most overscored gymnast of her generation and 20th AA at 1991 worlds would have been a more accurate reflection of her abilities.....but based on how she was scored it would have been foolish not to put her on the team.

It was really unfair to Kelly, who despite IMO not being as good a gymnast as Bruce, had beaten Bruce at all the major competitions the two years leading up to the Olympics (1991 USA Championships, 1992 USA Championships, and trials).

Kim Kelly and her mom appeared on a talk show after the Olympics and IIRC her mom claimed Okino had to be spotted during her routines during the final camp

 

[FiveRinger]

I remember Svetlana Boginskaya saying after 1991 Worlds that the competition was horribly over scored in favor of the Americans, and had the competition been held in Europe, Kim Zmeskal would have never won, nor would the other Americans placed as highly as they did. There may have been some truth in that statement. Boginsksaya was biased, obviously.

 

[bardtoob]

Kim Kelly had weird gymnastics with stuff like mounting the bars from a tumbling pass.

https://youtu.be/PpRhoQ4aLiM

Tumbling is not a bars skill, so it had tons of risk and zero reward.

 

[Rob]

Tumbling mounts (even onto Bars) were somewhat trendy in the late 80s early 90s weren't they? I seem to recall more people doing it on bars, not just beam. Karolyis never liked tumbling mounts due to the risk.

Here is one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDqSwkSSWVs

 

[Winnipeg]

They were risky without benefit and don't even look that great.