Gavin Newsom

Vagabond

Well-Known Member
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19,521
I remember growing up hearing about how California Republicans were just so different from the Republicans I grew up with in that they were just pro-business and more libertarian than socially conservative and into controlling women's bodies or being racist, homophobic, etc. With Elder coming on as the top opponent to Newsom with this recall, I have to truly wonder if that conventional wisdom is no longer true and they're all part of the bananas (B-A-N-A-N-A-S) boat now.
Many of those Republicans have either left the Republican Party, stayed in the Party but stopped voting for Republicans, or died. What is left tends to be a party of more rural, less well-educated, and less wealthy voters who tend to resemble Republicans in other states. That said, even some rural counties have been trending Democratic lately.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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42,674
It's hard to know what Elder getting so many votes means. He got more votes than YES votes on the recall. So people who voted to keep Newsom also voted for him. What was their thinking? Hard to say.
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
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35,263
It's hard to know what Elder getting so many votes means. He got more votes than YES votes on the recall. So people who voted to keep Newsom also voted for him. What was their thinking? Hard to say.
I wonder how many of them did that...and how many of them didn't understand the first question...
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
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35,263
I just read a piece that this whole recall business gave Newsom a big headstart on his reelection campaign, with a new emboldened team of volunteers already organized, and a $24 million surplus from the "Stop the Recall" campaign that can be used for his reelection bid.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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42,674
I just read a piece that this whole recall business gave Newsom a big headstart on his reelection campaign, with a new emboldened team of volunteers already organized, and a $24 million surplus from the "Stop the Recall" campaign that can be used for his reelection bid.
Earlier pieces said that this recall was going to be more like Scott Walker in WI than Gray Davis in CA and it looks like they were correct.
 

skateboy

Well-Known Member
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7,471
I wonder how many of them did that...and how many of them didn't understand the first question...
I think that's VERY possible. After receiving my ballot, I came here on FSU to ask if we were required to vote for a candidate other than Newsom, even if we vote no for the recall. The wording on the ballot was very confusing to me, citing "Fill out both sides of ballot."

I finally found out that it was not necessary to vote for an additional candidate, so I vote no for the recall and that's it.

But I feel sure many people voted both sides, because they thought they had to.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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I voted both sides because I wanted to. I also wrote in Eleni Kounalakis. My husband did not.

I know people who voted No on the recall who voted for one of the Dem candidates or some other candidate who wasn't going to win but they liked their platform. I can understand that. I can't understand how people who voted No on the Recall would turn around and vote for Larry Elder of all people.
 

love skating

Clueless American
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2,707
It's hard to know what Elder getting so many votes means. He got more votes than YES votes on the recall. So people who voted to keep Newsom also voted for him. What was their thinking? Hard to say.
Actually right now with 65% of the vote in, currently "Yes" has 3 million votes and Elder has 2.1 million. Remember that a ton of people did not vote on the second question which leads to Elder getting a larger percentage of votes for the 2nd question than "Yes" got on the 1st question. 8.8 million total votes so far on the 1st question and only 4.7 million total votes on the 2nd.

Anyway, thank goodness California!
 

allezfred

Lipinski Stole My Catchphrase
Staff member
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59,591
I'm encouraged that all of my late-deciding friends are breaking in favor of recalling Newsom. Obviously, a self-selecting and convenience sample, but a few of my reliably Democratic African-American / Black friends in California have announced on social media that they've voted to recall, and I'm surprised at the number of positive comments on their feeds.
This didn't age well. :shuffle:
 

Yazmeen

Shake it then, shake it now, shake it forever
Messages
5,650
Democrats don't lose in Cufornia...even sleeze bags. Anyone know how much this little romp down Recall Lane has cost us?
Well, sweetheart, it wasn't exactly the Democrats who started this recall...

And if CA bugs you so much, why don't you move to a nice little Midwestern or Southern state that fits your politics better? As they say in the South, "Bless your heart..."
 

Yazmeen

Shake it then, shake it now, shake it forever
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5,650
BEST comment of all on the recall came from George Takei on Twitter: "Overheard: The vote was so lopsided, it's basically Elder abuse." :lol: :biggrinbo :biggrinbo :biggrinbo

And for the record, Elder did concede that he lost. Hopefully that takes same air out of the GQP "voter fraud" balloon. However, this article points out the takeaways from the recall:

1. The GQP is still the party of Trump - a more moderate candidate who might have actually beaten Newsom didn't get far at all (eg, see Kevin Faulconer)
2. The GQP is so invested in falsely claiming that fraud is the only reason Democrats can win elections, they’re going to keep doing it even when the election in question isn’t close. As I said before: if they win, it's fair; if a Democrat wins, it's fraud. We're going to have to wait and see how far and long they take this little sh**show.
3. HOWEVER - the politics of COV** may be shifting back to the Democrats. This recall provided a choice between the GQP policies that have failed to contain the summer surges vs CA's more cautious management of the the Delta variant. To quote the article: "...what Newsom’s win does suggest is that while voters are desperate for the pand**** to end, many of them no longer believe that the best way to get there is by pretending it already has."

 
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Louis

Private citizen
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16,040
This didn't age well. :shuffle:

Yeah, the results are disappointing for the GOP - no doubt about it. No good news here.

And if CA bugs you so much, why don't you move to a nice little Midwestern or Southern state that fits your politics better? As they say in the South, "Bless your heart..."

Or we could divide California into three states (two of which would be GOP controlled) and give people the representation they want. :saint: Democrats keep saying that the people to senator ratios are so imbalanced. This would be a great way to fix it. :saint: :saint: :saint:

1. The GQP is still the party of Trump - a more moderate candidate who might have actually beaten Newsom didn't get far at all (eg, see Kevin Faulconer)
2. The GQP is so invested in falsely claiming that fraud is the only reason Democrats can win elections, they’re going to keep doing it even when the election in question isn’t close. As I said before: if they win, it's fair; if a Democrat wins, it's fraud. We're going to have to wait and see how far and long they take this little sh**show.

I agree with this, and I also think the recent abortion nonsense may have given some voters pause. It has given me pause. I'm not keen to trade one set of restrictions on freedoms for a different one. Both parties are hypocrites on "my body, my choice." I support choice whether it's family planning / abortion rights, vaccination, or masks. (I strongly recommend the choice of vaccination, but if we have to resort to mandates, then we have failed.)
 

VGThuy

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35,263
It depends on how one divides CA, but I wouldn’t be so sure if, nationally-speaking, it would result in two red states and a blue, at least definitely in the former considering where the populations actually live and how the last presidential election went and how this recall went. There’s a reason California Republicans overwhelmingly oppose Cal 3. Anyway, if CA splits up due to political parities, then every major urban center and surrounding areas in red states should think about splitting up and form their own states and gain most of that state’s electors.
 

clairecloutier

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11,913
In his book It's Time to Fight Dirty, author David Faris advocated breaking California up into eight different states for the purpose of getting as many Dem Senators as possible. LOL. :biggrinbo:saint:

I liked Perry Bacon Jr's take on the recall in WaPo:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...call-strategy-offers-playbook-democrats-2022/

Newsom’s most effective strategy was not talking about how California’s economy has improved under his leadership or the long list of progressive policies he has signed into law. Instead, Newsom and his campaign relentlessly focused on Elder, casting him as extremist. And they emphasized that Newsom supported vaccination and mask-wearing requirements and other common-sense policies to reduce the spread of *********-19, much of which Elder opposed.

He has nothing to apologize for — and Democrats across the country should consider adopting his approach. Democrats are deeply invested in the idea that voters will reward them for creating the perfect child tax credit or jobs plan. But many policies, particularly on economic issues, are complicated and dry. People might not understand that they got a tax credit or forget about it when it comes time to vote.

Mask-wearing and vaccinations, on the other hand, are easy to understand. And Newsom’s ********* policies demonstrated, in a clearer way than tax credits would, the governor’s broader values, which I think is what actually drives people’s votes. Newsom was essentially arguing that he is a rational, common-sense person who cares about saving people’s lives during a deadly *********, while Elder is an out-of-control ideologue.
 

VGThuy

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35,263
California is basically a totally democratic state.

Republicans have two choices, shut and obey, or get out….problem solved.
I think it's more of a sign of what the Republican Party has become and how it's turned off so many would be moderates. Some argue Dems have done the same thing, but they seem to play towards the middle more willingly, which is why they are capturing more of the changing suburban vote, while the Republican Party has continued to keep its identity as the party of Trump and pre-Civil Rights era politics. Also, people like to complain a lot about high tax burdens, but then they sure enjoy what they get out of it that many red states do not offer, which is why despite headlines talking about a mass CA exodus, most have stayed put. Since we're sharing anecdotal stories from extremely small sample sizes, my friend from TX even spoke about people moving to TX after falling for the hype only for them to move back to CA because the grass certainly wasn't greener even if property taxes were lower.
 

Vagabond

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19,521
Here is a map of how California voted in the 2020 Presidential election by county. Except for a couple of counties on the Nevada border, it's not much different from the Yes-No results in the recall election. The southernmost "red" county, Kern, has about the same population as San Francisco. All of the other red counties have much smaller populations; combined, they might have about the same population as Kern County or even less.

No serious person familiar with the state of California could come up with a workable plan to split the state into three, two of which would be dominated by Republican and Republican-leaning voters. This is not to say that someone hasn't actually tried this recently. In 2014, Venture capitalist Tim Draper tried to get an initiative onto the ballot that would have split the state into six but couldn't collect enough signatures. He then tried to get an initiative onto the ballot that would have split the state into three, but the California Supreme Court permanently blocked the measure from any future statewide election.


Remember, I did say, "no serious person." :p
 
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Vagabond

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19,521
I think it's more of a sign of what the Republican Party has become and how it's turned off so many would be moderates.
Another part of the puzzle is that some Republicans have changed their thinking over the years and moved to the left of center. I have known a few of them.
 

SkateSand

Cat Servant
Messages
1,278
Y'all know my county voted to recall Newsom, right? :lol: There are many MAGA tears now, of course. :violin:

While I expected the county we'll likely be moving to to also vote in favor of the recall, I'm pleased to see it will be considerably less red than the one we're in. :p

I think a moderate Republican who was exceptionally charismatic might have a chance in California, but never a far right Republican. Elder may have gotten the most Republican votes out of the lackluster contenders, but a candidate that ran on the platforms he ran on will never be governor of California.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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42,674
Remember that a ton of people did not vote on the second question which leads to Elder getting a larger percentage of votes for the 2nd question than "Yes" got on the 1st question. 8.8 million total votes so far on the 1st question and only 4.7 million total votes on the 2nd.
:duh: I didn't think of that.

No good news here.
Au contraire, it's all great news! :D

CA's economy is still #1 in the Nation and is doing so well that we are all in the process of getting a stimulus rebate. At the same time, our death rate has been much lower than many other places that are hellbent on keeping everything open up "for the economy." You can't kill off a major portion of your population and have a good economy. And, if people don't feel safe, they aren't going to go out and won't stimulate the economy. People dying in large numbers does not make your population feel safe.

I wish people who are so wrapped up in the idea of individual freedoms would open their eyes and realize that when you live in a community, you can't just do whatever you want. Personal choice has its limits. Not to mention a lot of these people want personal choice without personal responsibility.

In case anyone wondered how well Caitlyn Jenner is currently doing.

13th place right now. Not even going to make the penultimate flight. 🙃
She never polled high enough to be a contender. Which is one reason I found it so annoying that she got so much press.
 

Yazmeen

Shake it then, shake it now, shake it forever
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5,650
I agree with this, and I also think the recent abortion nonsense may have given some voters pause. It has given me pause. I'm not keen to trade one set of restrictions on freedoms for a different one. Both parties are hypocrites on "my body, my choice." I support choice whether it's family planning / abortion rights, vaccination, or masks. (I strongly recommend the choice of vaccination, but if we have to resort to mandates, then we have failed.)
Putting abortion and the anti-vaxx/anti-mask movement into the same "my body, my choice" box is a false equivalency. Abortion does not present an infection or illness/death risk to anyone else but the woman having the termination. Lack of vaccination and masking is a completely different animal when it comes to potentially harmful risk.

This is not aimed specifically toward @Louis or anyone else here, but there's an old saying that your right to swing your fist ends at my nose. Your right to "do you" and potentially spread infection does not override my right to not get a deadly disease. Never in all my years in medicine could I have ever imagined that a deadly disease would become politicized the way it has. Nor did I ever think I'd see Americans so obsessed with a warped definition of "freedom" that they could care less if other people die, just so they can do whatever they want.
 

BlueRidge

AYS's snark-sponge
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58,785
I think we should stop accepting this bastardized notion of "freedom."

If you have to work for a wage you can't live on, that's not freedom.
If you have to hurdle major obstructions in order to vote, that's not freedom.
If you can't get access to health care, that's not freedom.
If your child's school does not provide an adequate education, that's not freedom.
If you can't afford to buy or rent in most neighborhoods in your town, that's not freedom.

The people who bleat about freedom most often don't give a rat's ass about actual freedom. They want privileges and power over others and to have the government maintain that for them.
 

VALuvsMKwan

Wandering Goy
Messages
7,641
I think we should stop accepting this bastardized notion of "freedom."

If you have to work for a wage you can't live on, that's not freedom.
If you have to hurdle major obstructions in order to vote, that's not freedom.
If you can't get access to health care, that's not freedom.
If your child's school does not provide an adequate education, that's not freedom.
If you can't afford to buy or rent in most neighborhoods in your town, that's not freedom.

The people who bleat about freedom most often don't give a rat's ass about actual freedom. They want privileges and power over others and to have the government maintain that for them.
Louder for the yokels and the K-names of any gender in the front (goodness knows, they're not in the back).
 

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