Kostornaia with a triple axel will score higher than TukTuk is not a "has been skater" nor a "not that competitive skater". She is the current world silver medalist. She has a fairly consistent 3A and she has landed quad toe in practice (I hope she lands one in a competition soon). That is not a "non competitive" skater.
Kostornaia will need to win a bunch of competitions leading into the Russian nationals and medal there to improve her chances.
we'll see in the FS if Kostornaia attemps a triple axel.
as I said, she needs to be ahead of Tuk in this competition same in SC.