Boris Johnson Admitted To Hospital With C-*****

Louis

Private citizen
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I'm just questioning this line of thinking that comes up periodically that we have to re-open (or stay open) because if we don't, we never will.

I'll turn the question around and ask what is the alternative exit strategy? The exit strategy to this point has been get enough vaccines in arms to achieve herd immunity. Vaccines have either broken or significantly weakened the link between cases and deaths / hospitalizations. People were told to get vaccinated to get their freedoms back. Nearly 90 percent of adults have done so, or are in the process of doing so.

Cases are going to be high throughout the summer (including of vaccinated people). But then cases tend to spike in fall and winter, as the weather turns and people go indoors. Then something else will happen in the spring. When does it stop? When do we get to say that the risks are higher than they used to be, but manageable and worth returning to normal life? Or at least that we're going to give people that option?

Despite the huge wave of infections, we have 20-odd deaths per day in a country of 66 million people. Most of the deaths are among the elderly and with co-morbidities, and around half are double vaccinated. Really, what more can we do - and to prevent what loss of life?

So I do ask - if not now, then when, and with what exit strategy? I'm not sure I see the situation getting better than it is now for quite some time, possibly years.
 

Vagabond

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19,752
I'll turn the question around and ask what is the alternative exit strategy?
That's avoiding the question. Why would the U.K. stay closed down forever?

There are obvious alternative exit strategies, such as waiting until a certain proportion of the population above the age of 12 or 18 is vaccinated, waiting until the emergency administration of a vaccine for children under the age of 12 is authorized, waiting until a certain proportion of the entire population is vaccinated, or waiting until at least vaccine is authorized for non-emergency use.

Now, answer the question. Why would the U.K. stay closed down forever?
 

Louis

Private citizen
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There are obvious alternative exit strategies, such as waiting until a certain proportion of the population above the age of 12 or 18 is vaccinated, waiting until the emergency administration of a vaccine for children under the age of 12 is authorized, waiting until a certain proportion of the entire population is vaccinated, or waiting until at least vaccine is authorized for non-emergency use.

Then let's clearly articulate this and have a debate about the pros and cons. The people arguing for continued restrictions aren't articulating an exit strategy, any criteria, or much of anything beyond "it's too soon." Boris Johnson says 19th of July because we've satisfied the four criteria the government laid out and reached a level of herd immunity among adults. His critics don't have a date, criteria, or rationale.

Now, answer the question. Why would the U.K. stay closed down forever?

Vaccines aren't 100 percent effective. Plenty of vaccinated people are coming down with C19 and will continue to come down with C19. If the arguments over continued restrictions boil down to "cases!!!!!!!" then we will be closed forever or at least indefinitely.
 

Dobre

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11,134
It’s all absolute madness and with only a partially vaccinated population the perfect breeding ground for new variants.
Dad & I were talking about this need people have to think they can bullhead their way through Mother Nature in order to do what they want.

*********. Climate Change.

These things do not care.

Baffles me how farmers and people who depend on nature for their livelihoods around here can not get that. Has it ever helped to go out there and harvest when the wheat is still green? If a struggling mother cow is going to have a calf in the middle of the night, do you just go home & wait until morning? Do you stay inside during a lightning storm that could set fire to your crop?

No. It doesn't the heck matter when you want to do things. Either you respect Mother Nature or you lose your crop & your animals & you have nothing. (You might want to vaccinate those animals too so, you know, they don't die).

Need to cancel your vacation because harvest came early or ran late? It's cancelled. Need to miss the first week of volleyball practice? You'll miss it. Need to spend your birthday shuttling vehicles out to the field? You will do it.

But, hey, everybody. Personal responsibility. You just all go do what you want to do right now, and we'll see if we can harvest next month:rolleyes:.

I really don't understand this line of thinking. How can we never reopen? All we have to do to reopen is... reopen. Sure, it may be dumb to do it but that hasn't stopped plenty of countries (or states or counties, etc) before and it won't again.
Yeah, the reverse argument also bothers me. The people who say they can't see us shutting things down again now that stuff has reopened. All that demonstrates is a lack of one's own foresight. How many states & countries have shut down & opened up and shut down multiple times during this *********?

It's a *****. If it overwhelms your health care system, you're going to shut down. Politicians may push that responsibility onto other politicians; but end of the day, the result is the same on the ground. What opens can shut down. What closes can open.
 
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Miezekatze

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I kind of see Louis' point. The US has reopened a lot in summer afaik, but for example in most of Europe mask mandates were never lifted even a bit. And we still have nearly no cultural events here that aren't well tiny or socially distanced. And still I can't go the workplace normally , rather barely at all, because we still have this 30% capacity limit and all those social distancing rules. Students haven't been able to go back to university normally or to a nightclub or something like that.
Everything is sort of open, but only in a way that will make people happy that like everything very quiet and small and socially distanced.

So numbers are very low right now here, but everybody is warning that they are slowly rising again. So people are again told to be careful. And no restrictions will be lifed.
Now everybody here knows the numbers will rise again more clearly in fall and then probably 70% of the population will be vaccinated just when the fall rise starts.
So people here definitely don't have trust that the government will lift restrictions when everybody who wants has had a vaccine ,acutally instead polls show that 80% of the population thinks that there will be new restrictions or a new lockdown.

Personally I also don't see much use in the vaccination priviledges here (being that vaccinated people can meet as many other people as they want or don't need a test to enter things when numbers rise), because I don't think it's all that useful when I still can't go to work normally or I can't trust that things will actually stay open. And travel is still as complicated as ever and there's not many events, etc.

Also people who DO want to plan events, can't plan anything, because there can be new restrictions any minute. So again cities now have to decide NOW about whehter to hold or cancel christmas markets. That just feels like not much really has improved since last year in terms of the reopenings.We had about the same level of reopenings last year, without having anybody vaccinated.

So I'm not really sure whether Boris Johnsons approach is crazy or actually a good idea. Maybe it'll work and next year everybody will spend their vacation in UK, because life ist most fun there. Who knows :lol:

I think the other European countries are also kind of scared it will work, because of course many people here are also getting very impatient with the restrictions and pressure to lift them is of course growing and if people see that Brits get to do everything it either makes them jealous (the people who want to live more normally) or outraged (the people who want a more careful approach )

Btw, I read that people in UK are still supposed to wear masks indoors after July 17th (i think the post said "they are expected", which I guess is not all that mandatory).
So assuming they still might do that, I'm not sure the new rules in UK will be much different from what Israel has right now (if masks indoors stay) and when it comes to Israel everybody seems to think they have a sensible approach?

I have the impression much of the criticism towards UK is because of the football/soccer.
But it seems a bit populistic the way the media are reporting about the UK.
Nobody got outraged when there just recently was a maskless 100.000 people gay pride parade in Tel Aviv (obviously nothing wrong with that if the numbers were so low as they were).

Personally I'm not very surprised the numbers rise in most European countries.
The young people had to way the longest for the vaccine, now they are the only ones not vaccinated yet, but if they party, because everyting is "reopening" the numbers rise, but I think it's sort of understandable that they aren't the most patient about waiting with socialising and also obviously their idea of a "party" is not a nice socially distanced barbecue with 10 people in a garden, like many of the older vaccinated folks are totally happy with for this summer.
 

Miezekatze

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16,044
It's a *****. If it overwhelms your health care system, you're going to shut down. Politicians may push that responsibility onto other politicians; but end of the day, the result is the same on the ground. What opens can shut down. What closes can open.

Yeah, but to fair there are no signs of a overwhelmed healthcare system in the UK at all at the moment.

Boris Johnson is just taking a bigger risk than most of the rest of Europe.

But then I'm not sure more will be open there than currently in the US or in Hungary or Austria or Israel.
 

allezfred

Lipinski Stole My Catchphrase
Staff member
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Btw, I read that people in UK are still supposed to wear masks indoors after July 17th (i think the post said "they are expected", which I guess is not all that mandatory).
The UK has four different health restrictions for each country. England is doing away with all mask restrictions from 19 July. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will decide their own restrictions.
 

Miezekatze

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16,044
Matter of time. There are millions of adults in the U.K. unvaccinated.
Yeah but then you are sort of proving Louis point.

Because in Germany there also will be millions of unvaccinated people once everybody got their choice.

Which means if you never tolerate a higher number of infections, probably the ********* 19 situation won't change much for years to come.

Like in fall 2021 70% of the population is vaccinated. There are 10 million unvaccinated people.

You keep restrictions until the ********* 19 season is over to keep numbers low

In fall 2022 there are 70% vaccinated people and maybe 9.5 million unvaccinated people....

And so on.

So I don't think keeping vaccinations a free choice AND keeping numbers very low is just not going to work well, because herd immunity would never be reached but people would get more and more impatient.

Now Germany is not going to do the same as Boris Johnson, but we'll probably tolerate more and more infections over time, just phasing it out more of course and constantly talking about how much more careful we are than everybody else, which seems to be the main strategy of German *********-19 management, being know-it-all-ish towards the rest of Europe.
 
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Louis

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Why bother?

FWIW, I meant the government - not us. AFAIK, there is no concrete alternate proposal. I could be convinced that an extra few weeks are necessary, but no one has made the case.

Matter of time. There are millions of adults in the U.K. unvaccinated.

Let's not let the tail wag the dog. There are 35 million fully vaccinated adults, 10 million partially vaccinated adults, and 7 million unvaccinated adults. Every adult has been eligible to get a first dose for nearly a month now, and everyone can get second dose within eight weeks.

Everyone over 40, which encompasses 99.6 percent of those who have died from C19 and the vast majority of hospitalizations, has been eligible to get a first dose of the vaccine since late April and has had ample opportunity to be fully vaccinated.

Johnson's argument is that there's no reason to continue restrictions once everyone in the most at-risk groups has had ample opportunity to receive a full vaccination course.

If I were to make a counter-argument, I'd argue that delta has changed the efficacy of one dose, and we need more time to get more people two doses. But I think August 13 - the date by which all adults will have had time to get two vaccines - has to be a hard line in the sand. Choose not to get vaccinated at your own peril, but restrictions don't continue because of your choice.

No one - at least that I've heard - is making that argument. So in the absence of a specific argument to the contrary, I'll support Boris Johnson v. vague statements that mean restrictions could drag on for potentially months or years.
 

Miezekatze

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Yeah, I don't say what Johnson does is clever or will work (even though to be honest we'll only know afterwards and now at least we'll all find out).

But I can say in Germany its sort of the same, nobody really says what the plan is once everybody who wants to be vaccinated is vaccinated. Just some vague tip toing around answers. So nobody has the slightest idea. That isn't really helpful to install trust.

I think it's not comparable to the US, cause I think there restrictions have always been related more clearly to the load of the health care system.

In Germany we always reacted when the numbers were very low so that they never got all that high and then when the numbers were good, we also never lifted the restrictions all that much.

So keeping on like that, only looking at the 7 days incidence only and not at hospital load would sort of keep us stuck at our current state forever.

So I don't think it's asking to much to expect the government to at least provide criteria for future restrictions when every adult is vaccinated.
 

MacMadame

Doing all the things
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43,182
Which means if you never tolerate a higher number of infections, probably the ********* 19 situation won't change much for years to come.
But you can always decide to tolerate a higher number of infections. This is my point really. That we can decide at any time that the criteria are different and that these new criteria support re-opening.

That and we all know that this will end eventually anyway. After all, even the flu of 1918 ended even though there were no vaccines for it back then.
 

Vagabond

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FWIW, I meant the government - not us. AFAIK, there is no concrete alternate proposal. I could be convinced that an extra few weeks are necessary, but no one has made the case.
Not that I can speak to the specific differences between England and the Netherlands, but the Dutch Prime Minister just did.
 

skategal

Bunny mama
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8,249
Begs the question of what people think will happen when they lift restrictions in light of a rapidly spreading variant of concern and medical experts saying not to lift them?

Are they just hoping for the best? Are they in denial? Do they even care?

I guess this PM cares now considering he is apologizing.

Sad.
 

PRlady

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37,231
I've moved more towards Louis' position. Now, if it turns out that the vaccinations need boosters or really don't work well against new variants, I'll of course say we need to shut down again until everyone who wants to be can be protected.

But other than kids and people with medical reasons why they can't be vaccinated (and the former rarely get very ill), I'm no longer tolerant of those who refuse vaccines. They get sick, they get sick. They die, they die. They made their choice. So did I, flying to and from Maine last week and to and from Israel in May -- if I got sick despite being vaccinated, that's on me for flying when it wasn't absolutely necessary.
 

Hedwig

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19,116
I am and was super cautious and absolutely pro restrictions all the way. But now I am also leaning towards - if you are not vaccinated it is your own choice and if you get sick from it or die - that was your risk to choose.

Only two points, well three keep me from wanting to open up everything
a) for me the concern about kids - I just don't feel good about this illness and potential long term effects on children. If we open up I know my 8-year old will get it sooner or later like everyone else and I am scared about what it can do in a body - especially having watched a healthy 40-year old father of 4 getting *********, seeming healthy again and then dying 6 months later in a standard operation because his lungs were totally destroyed which you could not see from outside. We all heard about these stories but knowing someone first-hand who experienced something like this is so different than reading about it in a newspaper.

b) if too many of the anti-vaxxers do get sick and the hospitals get overwhelmed again it will of course affect everyone. not only doctors and nurses but all the people whose treatment gets delayed.

and c) to add - not everyone here had a chance to get vaccinated. At least for first shot in the next 2-3 weeks everyone who really wants it will have their first shot. To be safe it would be polite to wait for all of those to get their second shot in and be fully protected before the rest is - well - on their own with their decision.
 

Miezekatze

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Yeah, I'm definitely not for easing all restrictions now.

But one has to say that the UK IS several percentages ahead of Germany in their vaccination campaign and most of the other European countries. So they've nearly reached the point where everybody who wants has gotten their second shot.

So I just personally think the media coverage is not always entirely 100% fair. Because our government has yet to even reach the point where the really difficult discussions will start, which will probably be around end of September here, when we should have a similar or even better vaccination rate as GB now.

Personally I just miss a bit more concrete information from the German government on what they plan to do.

We learned today that the 7-day-incidence is not going to stay the only factor, but hospitalizations will also be taken into consideration.

And there's all this talk about that fully vaccinated people will definitly have "more freedoms", but nobody says what exactly that means.

In Greece and France their taking more clear measures quickly now, in Greece unvaccinated people can't eat inside restaurants or attend indoor cultural events. And in France you'll need a Green pass for just about everything soon, so unvaccinated people will have to get tests for nearly everything. So I think the people there know, what they will miss.

In Germany we always seem to discuss everything for 3 months, from all angles, with 338 different opinions, I certainly feel we're even more bureaucratic than our cliche :lol:
 

Miezekatze

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At least you discuss. In the US we shout and make it political. Somehow, getting the vaccine that was developed during Trump’s presidency is being disloyal to Trump. :rolleyes:

Yeah ok, that's deifnitely worse, but the ***** spread always happens very fast, so all those long discussions just seem to make things worse.
 

allezfred

Lipinski Stole My Catchphrase
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The British government's easing of ********* restrictions next week is highly contentious.

This is especially the case among the group of scientists who advise the government, the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies, known as SAGE.

At the very moment Health Secretary Sajid Javid was telling the British Parliament there could be 100,000 infections a day by the middle of next month, the minutes of last week's SAGE meeting were published online.

They go a long way to explain the sudden change of rhetoric from Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his ministers.
Gone is all talk of "Freedom Day" and the "irreversible" end of restrictions. Instead, there is now an overt acceptance from Mr Johnson that nothing is ruled out and that if things get really bad again, restrictions could be reimposed.
This time the plan is to see if the vaccination programme has made enough of a difference in reducing deaths and serious illness from ********* infection.

In effect, England is undertaking a vast experiment: to accept a high level of infections in return for an end to social distancing, if it can be shown that the previous well established link between infection, hospitalisation and deaths has been broken by the vaccination programme.

********* is not going away and we have to learn to live with it.

The English experiment is looking to find the level of excess deaths and Long ********* cases that society will tolerate (and the health service can cope with) in return for normal social freedoms.
 

allezfred

Lipinski Stole My Catchphrase
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Good that Johnson and Sunak will now self-isolate, but it begs the question why oh why are people meeting face to face in a *********?
 

Miezekatze

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I don't know, but here in Germany most political work is back to "normal" with restrictions (masks until sitting with distance). But I don#t think that's enough to avoid quarantining completely, when it's indoors. I think they always decide based on who sat who and whether masks were worn.

Angela Merkel met Biden, Johnson and the Queen in person without masks when travelling recently,at least that was my impression from all official photos.

I'd guess they always tried to sit or stand 1,5meters apart though.

Johnson certainly is a tool though. I don't think one of our politicians would get the idea to try to skip quarantine

:shuffle:
 

Louis

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Good that Johnson and Sunak will now self-isolate, but it begs the question why oh why are people meeting face to face in a *********?

Disappointed that he didn't use this opportunity to revisit the disastrous policy of requiring double-vaccinated people and/or those who have recently recovered from C19 to quarantine for 10 days until the 16th of August.

The NHS C19 app -- which I have unapologetically deleted -- is pinging so many people that we're going to be in lockdown by another name. Tube lines have shut down. Production factories are shutting down.

"Freedom day" my @ss. We're really no better than we were a year ago, and probably worse. Deaths are one-sixteenth of where they were, but "privileges" remain the same.
 

antmanb

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Honestly I do think it is time to move in the exit strategy, but I'm not sure abandoning all restrictions was wise.

I never understood the original date Johnson gave and always thought it made far more sense to abandon all restrictions once every adult had been given the opportunity to be double jabbed and be 2 weeks clear. A date at the end of August would have made far more sense, but Johnson was more concerned that using that date would coincide with children returning to school in the first week of September which would lead to an increase in cases that would lead us into the autumn.

I think time will tell, having thought i'd be up for taking advantage of the lifting of restrictions i find myself feeling nervous about it. I will continue to use masks in the way they have been mandated up until now, and i'm nervous about the prediction that half a million people will end up with Long-C19.

Hospital admissions and the death rate will be the figure to keep an eye on. For now the comparisons of case numbers to deaths are like night and day compared to the cases in January so the plan to not overwhelm the NHS seems to be working, as long as those figures remain low.

I think most people are expecting that further lockdowns will come, probably in autumn/winter.
 

Louis

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So it’s “Freedom Day” in England and there are anti-lockdown protests in London. :lol:


I don't condone violence at all - very sad to see bottles being thrown at police and punches being thrown by police.

But the fact remains we are more restricted than last year, so people aren't going to get fooled by Johnson or anyone else saying "freedom" and pretending things are "guidance" and "voluntary" when the reality is they're still mandated. The only thing that has changed is shifting enforcement to the private sector (which the UK government is great at doing in many respects - we make the rules, you pay for the compliance and monitoring of them).

And this isn't a "right wing" talking point at all. Johnson et al might want to look at what Joe Biden is doing / saying, e.g., that there's no p&ndemic for the vaccinated. THAT is a lot closer to freedom than any of the bollocks we're being fed.
 

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