2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Meoima

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You are quite mistaken. You have said, "A small country in South East Asia." There are a few countries that might match that description.
Feel free to ask the admins to see where my IP is from, I do not mind.
Also, feel free to deride my country or my countrymen. Nationalism is not something in my book. I could write several novels about the bad things happening here.
What I care is the general safety for the whole region I am currently living in and US's actions would affect our region quite a bit, which is why I am concerned over who will in US election.
Here we used to "respect/fear/dislike" (or a mixture of them all) towards big nations like the US. But since 4 years ago we start feeling "oh well suck a joke" when you guys chose that clown so there's that.
 

genevieve

drinky typo pbp, closet hugger (she/her)
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To me this is confounding:

From a survey done in September (so may have changed):

Issues of concern to a majority of voters in each party:



for Republicans, not the *********? not jobs and unemployment? not health care? :confused: I mean, its not asking how you address those issues, just whether they are a top concern. :eek:


Any thoughts of what accounts for this?
Well, the ********* is a hoax, so why worry about it?

Not sure why jobs aren't a concern though - ok, there's a solid portion of the GOP base that doesn't need to worry about traditional employment, but most of the MAGA base sure does.

ETA: I'm surprised that reproductive rights/abortion does not appear on either side.
 

Vash01

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The thing I find interesting about this election is that normally polls tighten as you get closer to Election Day. This time they are widening, at least in some places. I think part of this is the unique circumstances of this election but also because so many are already voting.

With so much absentee voting and so much early voting, any poll tightening we see in future races will probably happen earlier in the cycle IMO. I wonder if the debates will also happen earlier as well.
am hearing that polls are tightening.
 

Vash01

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Nate Silver says they are not, but that the state polls show a somewhat tighter race than indicated by the national polls.
The only polls that really matter are the swing states polls. National polls don’t matter. Trump is holding rallies after rallies in key swing states and that may be showing results. Democrats better not be complacent or this will be a repeat of 2016.

According to the latest 538 polls: Florida has tightened even more. In Ohio Trump has taken lead. Both are big states. Biden needs to win at least one of them for a slam dunk. A close win could go to SCOTUS where DT has the advantage.
 
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BlueRidge

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Well, the ********* is a hoax, so why worry about it?

Not sure why jobs aren't a concern though - ok, there's a solid portion of the GOP base that doesn't need to worry about traditional employment, but most of the MAGA base sure does.

ETA: I'm surprised that reproductive rights/abortion does not appear on either side.

well if I were being uncharitable, which is how I am feeling right now, I'd say (aside from not being surprised abortion isn't a majority concern among Trump voters, the one-issue voters are a minority of his supporters). I'd say these two words, crime and terrorism translate to one word. Racism. Trump is a white nationalist and a majority of his supporters support him for that reason.
 

VGThuy

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The only polls that really matter are the swing states polls. National polls don’t matter. Trump is holding rallies after rallies in key swing states and that may be showing results. Democrats better not be complacent or this will be a repeat of 2016.

How are Dem voters being complacent? They are breaking records in early voting, and have been living with anger and maybe even PTSD for the past 3-and-half-years. More people have been donating to Biden and so many people are volunteering. We may still lose, but it's not the fault of those who haven't really tried. Sometimes you're just out-numbered.
 

Vash01

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How are Dem voters being complacent? They are breaking records in early voting, and have been living with anger and maybe even PTSD for the past 3-and-half-years. More people have been donating to Biden and so many people are volunteering. We may still lose, but it's not the fault of those who haven't really tried. Sometimes you're just out-number
 

VGThuy

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To me, the warning is becoming pretty condescending by this point in the game. We've all been screaming that since Hillary lost and it's 2 weeks before the election and people have been working non-stop to try to get rid of Trump. More attention has been paid to voter suppression and intimidation tactics than I remember, people have paid former felons' debts in Florida, Biden broke a record in raising an amount of money after the first debate, the messaging has all been about vote as if your life depended on it, vote as if Biden was going to lose, etc.
 

MsZem

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The only polls that really matter are the swing states polls. National polls don’t matter. Trump is holding rallies after rallies in key swing states and that may be showing results. Democrats better not be complacent or this will be a repeat of 2016.

According to the latest 538 polls: Florida has tightened even more. In Ohio Trump has taken lead. Both are big states. Biden needs to win at least one of them for a slam dunk. A close win could go to SCOTUS where DT has the advantage.
Yes. You have lots of aggregators and experts tracking those. I recommend FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver on his own, Nate Cohn and Dave Wasserman.

FiveThirtyEight has had Trump ahead in Ohio for most of the period they've been tracking. Florida has not tightened in their forecast. Biden does not need to win either state, though both would be nice to have. There are plenty of other places that would get him over 270 easily.
 

VGThuy

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I don't think it's complacency, especially all the hours I devoted to volunteering, donating, and being productive rather than sitting around and fall for fear mongering. I think there's a difference between telling people to vote and work to GOTV and getting people engaged and share in the importance and just stewing in fear and yelling and screaming every insecurity and fear you have - real and imagined. How is the latter productive and helpful? What more do you want Dems to do to show you they aren't being complacent? Hold a rally during *********?
 

tony

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The only polls that really matter are the swing states polls. National polls don’t matter. Trump is holding rallies after rallies in key swing states and that may be showing results. Democrats better not be complacent or this will be a repeat of 2016.

According to the latest 538 polls: Florida has tightened even more. In Ohio Trump has taken lead. Both are big states. Biden needs to win at least one of them for a slam dunk. A close win could go to SCOTUS where DT has the advantage.
Florida and Ohio won't mean anything if Biden holds Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Even more, Arizona is looking good this time around and at least several other states are either toss-up or slightly trending Biden now. Wisconsin could even be taken out if Biden wins Arizona.

The biggest state to watch for IMO is Michigan. It was polling closer than Pennsylvania for a long time, and this is why I cannot understand the logic of Trump going after the Governor to try and help his case. It is a very important state.

I'm not holding my breath on my home state nor my current state.
 

BlueRidge

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Yes. You have lots of aggregators and experts tracking those. I recommend FiveThirtyEight, Nate Cohn and Dave Wasserman.

FiveThirtyEight has had Trump ahead in Ohio for most of the period they've been tracking. Florida has not tightened in their forecast. Biden does not need to win either state, though both would be nice to have. There are plenty of other places that would get him over 270 easily.

My recommendation to the anxious is to NOT access any reports on polls. You can't do anything about it besides up your fret-level so why not just coast to election day and see what happens then. :shuffle:

At least that is what I am trying to do, which may mean not accessing any news sites soon...
 

MsZem

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My recommendation to the anxious is to NOT access any reports on polls. You can't do anything about it besides up your fret-level so why not just coast to election day and see what happens then. :shuffle:
That is good advice! If one is capable of taking it :) if not, I'd at least suggest relying on aggregators and experts rather than fretting over every single poll.
 

VGThuy

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The thing is even in the best calculations, Trump still has more than 10% chance of winning, and that is actually a lot. So just do what we can and know we did our best, and the country is what the country is.
 

BlueRidge

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The thing is even in the best calculations, Trump still has more than 10% chance of winning, and that is actually a lot. So just do what we can and know we did our best, and the country is what the country is.

Yes this.

Things are looking quite good right now. But that is no guarantee.

As Tom Tomorrow put it today: "Up Next: The longest two weeks in human history."
 

Meoima

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The thing is even in the best calculations, Trump still has more than 10% chance of winning, and that is actually a lot. So just do what we can and know we did our best, and the country is what the country is.
:saint: Well, I wish you guys the best... Hopefully, the situation might improve and you guys get a new president.
 

just tuned in

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In the Philly suburbs, just today I had the unpleasant experience of two pro-Trump ads. One was a giant postcard mailing, stating Trump/Pence's anti-abortion ("protect life") position and Biden/Harris as no restrictions on abortion. Ironically, one side of the postcard showed an adult wearing a mask while holding a baby. The text said something like, "You protect your life by wearing a mask, so..."

The other was a radio ad about how Biden/Harris will take away your guns, the guns you need to protect yourself and your family against violent Antifa rioters.

It was really unpleasant.
 

VGThuy

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:saint: Well, I wish you guys the best... Hopefully, the situation might improve and you guys get a new president.

Thanks. Just take solace in the fact that he did not win the popular vote last time and most likely won’t win it this time. So the majority of Americans don’t support him, it’s just we have a system that overvalues votes from states that do support him and undervalue votes in more populous areas.
 

canbelto

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Also YT needs to get its algorithm right because I click on links of SNL's political sketches and I get Trump ads.
 

Dobre

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Well, yes. But I was saying that those poll answers probably represent the topics that were hammered away at during the Republican Convention. You said they are from September, and the convention was the last week of August.
 

SkateSand

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I am not American though. I do not share my nationality with them so... If I want to mention the humanity I would have used the word "human being", right? Or maybe my English is not good enough, sorry. I am not a native speaker.

As a person of the world, who is the American president and what are American policies are important. The world suffers with us when we have a bad president. They don't suffer as much as we do, but people outside of the U.S. still suffer, sadly.
 

BlueRidge

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Over the weekend I read a book I can highly recommend called Unmaking the Presidency.

It looks at Trump in the context of the norms of the presidency and the ways in which he has rejected them. They take him seriously and look at how he conducts his presidency and call it the "expressive presidency." They also document a lot how he has rejected norms of process and personalized the presidency. And I think a lot of his supporters find these things positive.

One of the things the authors talk about is that if Trump loses the election, his time in office may be an aberration and not change the norms, but if he wins re-election his remaking of the presidency will be seen as a success and it will make it likely that his practices will harden into new norms.

I suggest people who lean right and are afraid that it would be worse to have the Democrats in charge because of the left wing of the Democratic Party in charge think hard about this before they pass on the chance to vote for Biden. Biden manifestly if nothing else wants to maintain the old norms of the presidency. But if he loses, the leftwing of the party will be in a position to dominate the party whereas if he wins Biden's moderation will be seen as the path to victory by many Democrats.

But if Trump is elected, and elections go forward, you'll need to imagine the day in the future when an AOC-type wins the presidency and personalizes it and uses her twitter abilities and promotes beliefs in socialism and opposition to business in personal terms over social media etc. If you are okay with that day coming by all means sit back and let Trump win again. But if you want a fighting chance of keeping the presidency in check with process and institutional norms, you need Biden to win.
 
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tony

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The reason why this is wrong is because of the huge amount of republicans endorsing Biden.
Unprecedented in American Political history
Yes, but you know a lot about politics and you should realize that just because the most visible people are endorsing Biden doesn't mean bubble America won't change their ways-- because, after all, they know best. MAGA tends to love anyone that sides with their own personal views and the minute anyone from their side slightly disagrees, they are public enemy number 1.
 

BlueRidge

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Also speaking of creating new norms if Trump wins again, I was looking up Orwell's Newspeak and I think its worth thinking about the unconscious ways Trump mimics it.

In "The Principles of Newspeak", the appendix to the novel, Orwell explains that Newspeak follows most of the rules of English grammar, yet is a language characterised by a continually diminishing vocabulary; complete thoughts reduced to simple terms of simplistic meaning. ...

Orwell's ... for him the linguistic decline goes hand-in-hand with a decline of thought, the real possibility of manipulation of speakers as well as listeners and eventually political chaos.

...The political purpose of Newspeak is to eliminate the expression of the shades of meaning inherent in ambiguity and nuance from Oldspeak (Standard English). In order to reduce the language's function of communication, Newspeak uses concepts of simple construction: pleasure vs. pain, happiness vs. sadness. Goodthink vs. crimethink linguistically reinforces the State's totalitarian dominance of the people of Oceania.

Source: wikipedia

If Trump succeeds in staying in the presidency, he is the model for how to succeed and more people will utilize his methods. Language does matter and if it is degraded in this way it cannot express the complexity needed for democracy. I'm sure some people scoff at this idea that Trump is anything but a weird aberration but do you really want to find out?
 

Meoima

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As a person of the world, who is the American president and what are American policies are important. The world suffers with us when we have a bad president. They don't suffer as much as we do, but people outside of the U.S. still suffer, sadly.
Yes, that much I agree. Especially when the US and CCP from China are looming over our sea. This is why so many people here are worried about the US election.
 

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