2018 U.S. Elections - Midterms & More

ilovepaydays

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I will admit it: The New York Times election needles are cute! :)

61% reporting - Lamb (D) 52% / Saccone (R) 47% / Drew Miller (L) 0.62%.

RANT TIME: Third parties in the U.S. act so stupid. If they are going to have someone in a race, they should run them like they want them to win. Especially if you're the Libertarian Party and you are supposed to be really into free market competition. Then actually compete! :rolleyes:
 

ilovepaydays

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Hmm. CNN is interviewing an Allegheny County division election official. He says they are expecting about 4,100 absentee ballots and they won't be scanning them until they receive all of them for PA-18. That counting is expected to be completed at about midnight.

Lamb is ahead right now by about 2,500 votes with 87% reporting. I'm going to bed at about 10pm if they don't call this soon. You guys have fun staying up for this! :)
 

caseyedwards

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98% in and expanding lead for Lamb! Republicans will impeach trump now. They have to show they hate him. Trump districts by 20 points hate trump now and electing democrats
 

attyfan

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Last I heard, it will be decided by the absentee ballots ... so we have a while to wait. However, the Republicans should be scared ... this isn't merely a district that went heavily for Trump, but one that has been solidly red for a while.
 

snoopy

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I turned on tv news. Still everything is about trump. How he is spinning it, how his rally might have helped keep it so close. Why not spend some time on oh, Conor lamb? The guy in the lead.

I didn’t even last 5 minutes.
 

snoopy

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If the Democrats want a good shot of taking the House in November, they should learn from tonight that they need to do rural outreach in suburban/rural swing districts. You'd think they'd figure that out by how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 in flipping states like Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado (I think Bush-43 won all of those in 2004). But they didn't.
Do you know that for sure? Odd time to pick on them.
 

caseyedwards

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Last I heard, it will be decided by the absentee ballots ... so we have a while to wait. However, the Republicans should be scared ... this isn't merely a district that went heavily for Trump, but one that has been solidly red for a while.
Paul Ryan has been in the house longer than this district has been republican so he may not care. He may not move to impeach trump or hold hearings on emoluments.
 

ballettmaus

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If the Democrats want a good shot of taking the House in November, they should learn from tonight that they need to do rural outreach in suburban/rural swing districts. You'd think they'd figure that out by how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 in flipping states like Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado (I think Bush-43 won all of those in 2004). But they didn't.
Clinton won VA and CO, too.

I'm not sure if VA is about rural outreach. Rather, I think that it's going to become bluer and bluer in the years to come because urban areas are growing rapidly, so fewer and fewer precinct are going to be red.
 

caseyedwards

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Clinton won VA and CO, too.

I'm not sure if VA is about rural outreach. Rather, I think that it's going to become bluer and bluer in the years to come because urban areas are growing rapidly, so fewer and fewer precinct are going to be red.
Democrats have chosen to focus on the future America so they don’t have big ideology fights! Why not keep the focus on areas with growing Hispanic populations and they don’t care whatsoever about guns or abortion and elect democrats pro gun control and pro choice because their focus is economic and immigration. Why have pro lifers and pro gun people? It worked in Pennsylvania and it’s a good result but it’s not the future.
 

Vash01

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AP is calling the election too close to call. They are counting the absentee ballots tonight. I am hoping that a recount will not be needed.

ETA: Conor Lamb claims victory, although he has not been announced as the winner. Is this premature? Win or lose, this is a victory for him and the democrats. Who would have thought he would win a heavily republican district?
 
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Susan1

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AP is calling the election too close to call. They are counting the absentee ballots tonight. I am hoping that a recount will not be needed.

ETA: Conor Lamb claims victory, although he has not been announced as the winner. Is this premature? Win or lose, this is a victory for him and the democrats. Who would have thought he would win a heavily republican district?
Remembering that I am dumb about politics, why are we excited about a democrat "winning" who is anti-gun control and anti-choice? Won't he just side with 45 and the republicans on other stuff? What "party" views will he hold?
 

PRlady

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Remembering that I am dumb about politics, why are we excited about a democrat "winning" who is anti-gun control and anti-choice? Won't he just side with 45 and the republicans on other stuff? What "party" views will he hold?
The one vote that counts is for majority leader! He won’t vote liberal on some things, big deal. Half a Dem is better than none.
 

Zemgirl

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Remembering that I am dumb about politics, why are we excited about a democrat "winning" who is anti-gun control and anti-choice? Won't he just side with 45 and the republicans on other stuff? What "party" views will he hold?
Manchin and Heitkamp don't always vote with the Democratic caucus in the Senate. But they've held the line on the things that truly matter, like the various attempts to repeal the ACA and some of Trump's less palatable nominees. Sometimes you have to take the best option, not an ideologically pure but unrealistic one.
 

DORISPULASKI

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One more vote against further unravelling of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, CHIP, and unions.

Bad for kids wanting to be safe in school, but despite being progun, I suspect he will be ok on background checks and common sense gun controls.

Bad for women, but that is his district.
 

ilovepaydays

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Democrats have chosen to focus on the future America so they don’t have big ideology fights! Why not keep the focus on areas with growing Hispanic populations and they don’t care whatsoever about guns or abortion and elect democrats pro gun control and pro choice because their focus is economic and immigration. Why have pro lifers and pro gun people? It worked in Pennsylvania and it’s a good result but it’s not the future.
In a country as large and as politically diverse as the U.S., a political party needs to be “bigger tent” if they want to win legislative majorities, Presidential, and most statewide races. Most Americans don’t have “all liberal/progressive” or “all conservative/libertarian” views, even if they tend to prefer one party over another.

BTW, I think the Republicans have this problem, too. They could be far more competitive in statewide races in places like California, New York, Maryland, Oregon, and Washington if they didn’t insist so much on ideological purity.

Remembering that I am dumb about politics, why are we excited about a democrat "winning" who is anti-gun control and anti-choice? Won't he just side with 45 and the republicans on other stuff? What "party" views will he hold?
The one vote that counts is for majority leader! He won’t vote liberal on some things, big deal. Half a Dem is better than none.
From what I glanced at from Conor Lamb’s campaign website - he greatly supports unions and wants to fix (not gut) the ACA. Also, as a Marine, he is probably significantly more likely to want to repair the VA.

Lamb, in his time as a federal prosecutor, was known for his cases involving opioids. He’s significantly more likely to vote or even write legislation to help combat that crisis. There’s a Lamb ad that I linked in an earlier post in this thread that was pretty damning towards Saccone on this issue.

If you prefer the “Democrat team”, there should be more than enough about Lamb to like here.
 
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caseyedwards

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One more vote against further unravelling of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, CHIP, and unions.

Bad for kids wanting to be safe in school, but despite being progun, I suspect he will be ok on background checks and common sense gun controls.

Bad for women, but that is his district.
It is great for women. Lamb is a strident pro choicer! Doesn’t support any legislative restrictions!
In a country as large and as politically diverse as the U.S., a political party needs to be “bigger tent” if they want to win legislative majorities, Presidential, and most statewide races. Most Americans don’t have “all liberal/progressive” or “all conservative/libertarian” views, even if they tend to prefer one party over another.

BTW, I think the Republicans have this problem, too. They could be far more competitive in statewide races in places like California, New York, Maryland, Oregon, and Washington if they didn’t insist so much on ideological purity.





From what I glanced at from Conor Lamb’s campaign website - he greatly supports unions and wants to fix (not gut) the ACA. Also, as a Marine, he is probably significantly more likely to want to repair the VA.

Lamb, in his time as a federal prosecutor, was known for his cases involving opioids. He’s significantly more likely to vote or even write legislation to help combat that crisis. There’s a Lamb ad that I linked in an earlier post in this thread that was pretty damning towards Saccone on this issue.

If you prefer the “Democrat team”, there should be more than enough about Lamb to like here.
But the issue is not so much that Americans are all over the place it’s what is the role of parties to stand for something so voting for that party means something. Lamb is a strident abortion rights activist but he’s also not for banning ar15’s. Is that really appropriate for a democrat?
 

BittyBug

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It is great for women. Lamb is a strident pro choicer! Doesn’t support any legislative restrictions!


But the issue is not so much that Americans are all over the place it’s what is the role of parties to stand for something so voting for that party means something. Lamb is a strident abortion rights activist but he’s also not for banning ar15’s. Is that really appropriate for a democrat?
A party that limits itself to candidates that agree 100% with the party's platform is doomed to failure.

Would Lamb have succeeded as a candidate to represent a very liberal district like San Francisco or Boston? No. But similarly, Nancy Pelosi and Mike Capuano would not have succeeded in PA 18.

The choice for dems was run a 100% platform candidate and fail or run a candidate who aligns with as much of the platform as possible to win in PA 18. Should they have done the former?
 

Susan1

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A party that limits itself to candidates that agree 100% with the party's platform is doomed to failure.

Would Lamb have succeeded as a candidate to represent a very liberal district like San Francisco or Boston? No. But similarly, Nancy Pelosi and Mike Capuano would not have succeeded in PA 18.

The choice for dems was run a 100% platform candidate and fail or run a candidate who aligns with as much of the platform as possible to win in PA 18. Should they have done the former?
Thanks, all. And for not agreeing that I am dumb about politics!
 

snoopy

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FWIW, DK has exit poll results indicating keeping ACA was a big reason voters broke for Lamb. It does seem like fiscal progressivism and cultural moderation (e.g. guns) is a winning combo for rural sections of the country.
 

rfisher

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FWIW, DK has exit poll results indicating keeping ACA was a big reason voters broke for Lamb. It does seem like fiscal progressivism and cultural moderation (e.g. guns) is a winning combo for rural sections of the country.
That's because a lot of people who opposed "Obamacare" have suddenly realized the ACA actually impacts them. We're seeing that in a lot of rural areas.
 

caseyedwards

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A party that limits itself to candidates that agree 100% with the party's platform is doomed to failure.

Would Lamb have succeeded as a candidate to represent a very liberal district like San Francisco or Boston? No. But similarly, Nancy Pelosi and Mike Capuano would not have succeeded in PA 18.

The choice for dems was run a 100% platform candidate and fail or run a candidate who aligns with as much of the platform as possible to win in PA 18. Should they have done the former?
Of course it was right To do the latter to get a win and hurt trump but you see how the Party guns proposals might fail even if they get a majority because lamb democrats may defeat the parties ban of ar-15’s. So you want the house to ban ar-15’s but you can’t ban ar-15’s because of how you won the house!!

FWIW, DK has exit poll results indicating keeping ACA was a big reason voters broke for Lamb. It does seem like fiscal progressivism and cultural moderation (e.g. guns) is a winning combo for rural sections of the country.
Obamacare now means Medicaid! It’s brilliant! The democrats were extraordinarily successful in transforming Obamacare into just a Medicaid expansion program and not something that makes the individual market a nightmare!!
 
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caseyedwards

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics/pennsylvania-18th-lamb-saccone-on-the-issues/index.html

He was called anti-abortion by several programs I was listening to last night. They failed to say he was for keeping abortion legal. I am glad to hear that he is. I do not care what his convictions are in his personal life, so I feel better about him.
But what about the belief he is negatively judging women who have had abortions by saying he feels they are wrong?
 

KCC

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I'm taking an OSHER class about the growing political divide. It's more political science than politics, and is really interesting. One trend that we discussed is that more people now say "I'm a (political party), and therefore I think (this) about an issue" instead of saying "I think (this) about an issue, therefore I'm a (political party)". It's scarey to think that so many people have lost their ability to think independently about important issues, and just blindly follow their party's mouthpiece.

I'm glad to hear that positions on issues was deemed important in PA, at least for some people, instead of simply voting along party lines.

By the way, I read the voting map to be that rural areas voted "mostly" republican and the heavily populated Pittsburgh suburbs voted "mostly"democrat. Did I miss where the rural areas swung for Lamb?
 

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