2018 U.S. Elections - Midterms & More

ilovepaydays

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CNN O'Rouke Interview: Texas Democrat has sights on unseating Ted Cruz
CNN Cruz Interview: Cuomo presses Ted Cruz on his name change

Random (trying to be objective) Observations:
1) I'm not sure of Beto O'Rouke's realistic chances. Either he will win by an edge or get beaten by about 10%.
2) If O'Rouke is going to attack Cruz on his donations from the NRA, he better have a good answer when Cruz will attack him on his donations from Planned Parenthood/NARAL/etc. Texas is very pro-2nd Amendment and pro-life.
3) Cruz's jingle making fun of O'Rouke picking his nickname is technically horrible. A high school kid could have created something better.
4) If Cruz wants to speculate why Robert wanted to pick "Beto" as his nickname, shouldn't "Ted" have to give an explanation of why he doesn't go by Rafael? Just sayin'. Why didn't Cuomo call that out - he truly sucks at interviews.
5) O'Rouke needs to work on his charisma a bit. His interview was kinda too MEH.
6) Come on, Beto! If Tim Kaine can get away with that God-awful harmonica in Virginia, your punk rock can't be that much worse if you use it sometimes in Texas.
 
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rfisher

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I guess, many Republicans are sliding down to Trump's level.
You should see Don Blankenship's ads for senate in WV. Right now they are all against Hillary (she should be arrested) and saying how he's with Trump. They haven't gone against Manchin personally. Yet. I will be astounded if the state picks him after he let 29 miners die and spent one year in a cushy jail (well he spent millions of dollars in lawyer's fees and lost his job as head of the coal company, but boo hoo for him).
 

ballettmaus

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You should see Don Blankenship's ads for senate in WV. Right now they are all against Hillary (she should be arrested) and saying how he's with Trump. They haven't gone against Manchin personally. Yet. I will be astounded if the state picks him after he let 29 miners die and spent one year in a cushy jail (well he spent millions of dollars in lawyer's fees and lost his job as head of the coal company, but boo hoo for him).
And they're telling Hillary supporters to move on :rofl:
 

caseyedwards

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UPDATE - March 6, 2018

Notable changes
U.S. House: Democrats have six less incumbent seats that are competitive, GOP have eight more that are competitive. :eek:

U.S. Senate: Due to the resignation of Thad Cochran (R-MS) because of health issues, both of Mississippi's Senate seats will be up for election on November 8. I can't remember the last time that happened in a state. :eek:

Governor: Maine (LePage) is now changed from Tossup to Lean Democrat.

I will make strike-throughs and put the updates in bold where needed.
---------------------------------------

2018 U.S. Midterm Elections
Tuesday, November 6, 2018

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives
34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate (Class 1)
39 state and territorial governorships
Numerous other state and local elections


2018 U.S. House of Representatives Elections
GOP currently leads 238-194
Democrats need to flip 25 seats
34 36 GOP are retiring their seats - Most of those districts are competitive
16 Democrats are retiring their seats - Most of those districts are pretty Democratic


Cook Political Report - U.S. House - GOP has 67 75 lean/tossup; Democrats have 25 19
Sabato's Crystal Ball - U.S. House- There's a very good chart here of all the districts that the incumbent is a different party than won the 2016 Presidential race.


2018 U.S Senate Elections
GOP currently leads 51-47-2. Two independents - Bernie Sanders (Vermont) and Angus King (Maine) currently caucus with the Democrats.
Assuming those Independents stick with the Democrats, they need to flip 2 seats. Flipping one seat will keep the GOP in control because the GOP Vice President (Mike Pence) would be the tie breaker.


3 GOP incumbents are retiring (Flake-AZ, Hatch-UT, and Corker-TN). 1 GOP (Cochran-MS) is resigning due to ill health. All Democratic and Independent incumbents are running.
The GOP is defending 8 seats. The competitive seats right now are:
Arizona (Flake)
Nevada (Heller)


The Democrats are defending 24 seats. The most competitive seats right now are:
Florida (Nelson)
Indiana (Donnelly)
Missouri (McCaskill)
Montana (Tester)
North Dakota (Heitkamp)
Ohio (Brown)
West Virginia (Manchin)
Wisconsin (Baldwin)


Cook Political Report - U.S. Senate
Sabato's Crystal Bal - U.S. Senate

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections
GOP leads Democrats 33-16-1; I didn't realize that Bill Walker (Alaska) was now an Independent.

GOP:
Florida (Scott)
Illinois (Rauner)
Maine (LePage) Now changed from Tossup to Lean Democrat
Michigan (Snyder)
Nevada (Sandoval)
New Hampshire (Sununu)
New Mexico (Martinez)


Democrats:
Colorado (Hickenlooper)
Connecticut (Malloy)
Pennsylvania (Wolf)


Independent
Alaska (Walker)


Cook Political Report - Governor
Sabato's Crystal Ball - Governor
Two senate seats up in same year same state fairly regular occurrence! Senators always resigning for some reason or death.

NY 2010

http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpo...ates-host-elections-for-both-us-senate-seats/
 
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caseyedwards

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Hillary is one of the most toxic political figures of all time! 20 point trump district may elect democrat soon! Some 20 point trump districts have already elected democrats!
 

caseyedwards

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The problem is called the electoral college. (And election interference).
That is so true and Hillary should have officially challenged all the votes in close states and democrats in congress should have objected to all counting of electoral votes. The 2016 election was totally illegitimate and shouldn’t have stood. Sometimes the official line that no votes were changed makes it seem that the votes were legitimate! That’s a mistake! So that mistake was made in the comment that the votes where Hillary lost to trump were legitimate votes! Sometimes I go with the official line! If you do go by the official line it’s very anti Hillary!
 

ilovepaydays

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Normally, I would be MEH about special elections for U.S. House seats, but Pennsylvania-18 is having one tomorrow and it seems to be neck-and-neck right now! :watch:

PA-18 looks like it's suburban south Pittsburgh plus some outlying areas of Greene, Westmoreland, and Washington counties. The district is R+21 and Trump won it by 20 points in 2016 and Romney won it by that margin in 2012. The congressional district was thought to be so GOP that the Democrats didn't even bother to run a candidate in 2014 and 2016. So the fact that it seems to be close is INSANE! :eek:

Here are some handy links if you want to :COP::
Wikipedia - Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district
Wikipedia - Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election, 2018
Wikipedia - Rick Saccone
Wikipedia - Conor Lamb
Rick Saccone's (Republican) campaign website
Conor Lamb's (Democrat) campaign website
FiveThirtyEight - Everything You Need To Know About The Pennsylvania 18th Special Election
NPR Politics Podcast - Democrats Hoping For Upset In Pennsylvania Special Election
GOP Pours Cash Into Pennsylvania Special Election To Prevent An Upset Defeat
 
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ilovepaydays

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ilovepaydays

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Polls in PA-18 close in about 15 minutes, y'all! :D

Handy real time links:
Electionreturns.pa.gov - Overall Results
Electionreturns.pa.gov - Results by County

Other links:
CNN - Pennsylvania election results: Live updates
FiveThirtyEight - Watch The Pennsylvania 18th Special Election Like A Pro
NPR Politics - 4 Questions Ahead Of The Special Election In Pennsylvania

BTW.............

Open Secrets - Pennsylvania District 18 Special Election - If Conor Lamb ends up losing tonight, this will prove that Democrats need to not be so stupid this year with giving and spending campaign donations. Just sayin'!
 

ilovepaydays

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While we are awaiting returns.....it shouldn't take too long -

CNN: Jake Tapper > Wolf Blitzer
Sanity > CNN's Talking Heads Panel - Seriously, you don't need eight people up there. Plus Anderson Cooper. :rolleyes:
Map/Data Guy: Steve Kornacki (MSNBC - assuming he shows up; he hasn't at all yet) > John King (CNN)

Fox News isn't even showing the real time results on the bottom like MSNBC is. Neither are covering this right now - MSNBC is covering the Secretary of State turnover and Fox News is discussing immigration. Only CNN is covering the election results right now.
 

caseyedwards

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Republican Party still has sasse flake McCain’s and others who hate trump more than any democrat! Then you have Romney’s and Graham’s who also hate trump but since trump is a conservative sometimes agree with some conservative policies. Like they say they aren’t going to not vote for something conservative just because trump supports the conservative policy!
 

ilovepaydays

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It's 8:20pm. Polls closed 20 minutes ago and there is still 0% reporting.

WHAT IS TAKING SO LONG!!!! Did they use paper ballots? Are they counting them by hand? With mittens? :lol: Is the Pittsburgh area normally this slow?
 

ilovepaydays

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WAIT. There are 593 precincts in this congressional district?! :eek:

13% reporting - Lamb (D) 59% / Saccone (R) 41%

Lamb is winning Washington County by 8% and only losing Greene County by 10%! :eek:

Westmoreland County is still 0% reporting.
 

ilovepaydays

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If the Democrats want a good shot of taking the House in November, they should learn from tonight that they need to do rural outreach in suburban/rural swing districts. You'd think they'd figure that out by how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 in flipping states like Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado (I think Bush-43 won all of those in 2004). But they didn't.
 

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