2018 Olympics Team Event Qualification

EdmundBonPain

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Any news on this? Do this season's scores/placements count towards the event qualification or next year's, or combined?

Has anyone started compiling stats...?

Without doing any hard digging, I'd think that USA, Canada, Russia, Japan, China, France, Italy are locks. That leaves three places... Australia, Ukraine, Czech Republic, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Great Britain, Spain, Germany, Israel, Latvia....
 

kwanfan1818

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No.

Because the answer to the first is "No," no one knows.

Because the answer to the first is "No," how would anyone know what stats to compile?
 

kwanfan1818

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And now we do know:

Ten (10) NOCs/ISU Members will qualify to enter their Teams based on the qualifying points scoring scale as outlined in Annex A scored by its best one (1) skater in Ladies Single Skating, best one (1) skater in Men Single Skating, best Pair Skating couple and best Ice Dance couple primarily at the:
 ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2017 (season 2016/17) and the
 ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating events and Final season 2017/18​
Plus if necessary the following events:
 ISU European Figure Skating Championships/ISU Four Continents Figure Skating Championships 2017 (season 2016/17)
 ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2017 (season 2016/17)
 ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating season 2017/18 (only in individual events but not the Final)
Unlike 2014, I'm not sure there are going to be more than eleven members that have much of a shot at qualifying for at least three individual disciplines.

There are seven members who've already qualified for enough individual disciplines:
Member/Ladies Spots/Men's Spots/Pairs Spots/Dance Spots

Qualified in all four, and they've got GP spots in all disciplines
CAN 3 2 3 3
CHN 1 2 3 1
FRA 1 1 2 2
RUS 3 2 3 2
USA 3 3 1 3


Qualified for three, with a great chance of qualifying the fourth at Nebelhorn:
GER 1 1 2 0 (Lorenz/Polizoakis missed qualifying by 1) -- GP spots for Savchenko/Massot and L/P
ITA 2 0 2 2 3 (Ringhini didn't compete in Helsinki) -- GP spots in Ladies, Pairs, and Dance


There are five countries who've qualified two, and only Japan has any real shot at three:

ESP 2 0 0 1 -- No Pairs, No Ladies; GP spots in Men and Dance
ISR 2 0 0 1 -- No competitive Ladies or Pairs (if they've manufactured another female partner); GP spots in Men and Dance
JPN 2 3 0 0 -- Skating only the short, Japan Pairs and Dance were four off the cut-off, giving them a great chance of qualifying three, and with a chance for four. They have GP spots in all disciplines, and with fields of eight all Pairs who compete get WS points.
KAZ 2 1 0 0 -- No competitive Pairs or Dance; GP spots for Ladies and Men
LAT 1 1 0 0 -- No competitive Pairs, and the Dance team was nine off the cut-off (SD only); GP spots in Men

There are only three more with one that I think have a shot qualifying for three and the final two spots:

AUS 0 1 0 0 -- Pairs were three off the cut-off and Ladies were two off the cut-off; GP spots in Men
CZE 0 1 0 0 -- Pairs were one off the cut-off and dance was seven off the cut-off (SD only); CZE has GP spots in Men, Pairs, and Dance.
KOR 2 0 0 0 -- Men was six off the cut-off, but Cha was age ineligible last season. Dance was two off the cut-off. There were no Pairs in Helsinki. GP spots in Ladies and Men.

It would be rather miraculous for any other country to qualify for three or four disciplines.
 

kwanfan1818

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Quick and dirty, this is what I'm getting for the first category, championship points, assuming they mean one bucket from championships, either 2017 Worlds, or, if no one from that member got 2017 Worlds points, 2017 Euros/4C's or Jr. Worlds. They may mean a hierarchy -- ie, if no Worlds, then Euros/4C's, and if no Euros/4C's Jr. Worlds -- or the higher of the two. I tried for the former, but may have counted Jr. Worlds instead of Euros points in one case, but I can't remember which. I haven't double-checked anything.

Top 15:
Country Total Championship Points

CAN 3776 -- GP's in all
RUS 3533 -- GP's in all
USA 3021 -- GP's in all
ESP 2921 -- GP's in Men and Dance
CHN 2724 -- GP's in all
JPN 2674 -- GP's in all
ITA 2172 -- GP's in Ladies, Pairs, Dance
FRA 2076 -- GP's in all
GER 1602 -- GP's in Pairs and Dance
KOR 1064 -- GP's in Ladies and Men
ISR 1015 -- GP's in Men and Dance -- won't qualify three
CZE 833 -- GP's in Men, Pairs, and Dance
AUS 820 -- GP's in Men

KAZ 764 -- GP's in Ladies and Men -- won't qualify three
GBR 719 -- no GP's -- won't qualify three

The race should boil down to KOR, CZE, and AUS and a combination of GP WS points and whether they qualify at least two at Nebelhorn.
 

kwanfan1818

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And, since all Pairs get GP points from fields of eight, GP spots do count heavily here, especially in Pairs. For Dance, it's beating two teams to get points.

A note about relying on Worlds results, especially for Dance, is that for teams that didn't qualify for the free, it's based entirely in the short only, and although there's usually not a lot of movement, skating the Free in Nebelhorn may be the difference for those on the cusp.
 

Dobre

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And, since all Pairs get GP points from fields of eight, GP spots do count heavily here, especially in Pairs. For Dance, it's beating two teams to get points.

It's unlikely any GP points will be earned in dance for any of the three bubble countries. Only Czech Republic has a spot, and they were pretty clearly selected for Rostelecom due to their potential to finish at the bottom.
 

Sylvia

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Bumping up... Can someone who's been keeping track please update the team qualification standings in this thread? TIA!

ETA - found this post by @RoseRed today:
Right now it looks like the 10 teams will be:
- Canada
- Russia
- USA
- China
- Japan
- France
- Italy
- Germany
- South Korea
- Israel
 
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kwanfan1818

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At this point, with Australia in 11th with no other opportunities to earn GP points, South Korea and Israel should be locks, even if Cha (SA), Park (NHK), Choi (SA), Bychenko (NHK, IdF), Samohin (SA), and Tobias/Tkachenko (NHK, SA) earn no WS points at their events.

Tankova/Zilberberg, who just competed in Minsk, also have the Olys TES minimums. Is she an Israeli citizen, if they can't find a stray Jewish grandparent for Tkachenko?
 

Debbie S

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I thought Tkachenko had Israeli citizenship through his wife? (I can't imagine he and Tobias would have invested the past 3 years in training if he didn't?)
 

skatingguy

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At this point, with Australia in 11th with no other opportunities to earn GP points, South Korea and Israel should be locks, even if Cha (SA), Park (NHK), Choi (SA), Bychenko (NHK, IdF), Samohin (SA), and Tobias/Tkachenko (NHK, SA) earn no WS points at their events.
Seems likely. I thought maybe the Czech Republic might have been able to close the gap, but with the withdrawal of their pairs team from the Grand Prix it doesn't look like any of the chasing countries will be able to catch Korea or Israel.
 

misskarne

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At this point, with Australia in 11th with no other opportunities to earn GP points, South Korea and Israel should be locks, even if Cha (SA), Park (NHK), Choi (SA), Bychenko (NHK, IdF), Samohin (SA), and Tobias/Tkachenko (NHK, SA) earn no WS points at their events.

Tankova/Zilberberg, who just competed in Minsk, also have the Olys TES minimums. Is she an Israeli citizen, if they can't find a stray Jewish grandparent for Tkachenko?

*unhappy wailing*

Maybe not all is lost yet. Zijun Li just withdrew, maybe Kailani can get her spot. The men are dropping like flies, maybe Brendan will pick up another one. *clutches desperately at straws*

This could be our best team ever and we won't get to do the team event. :fragile:
 

kwanfan1818

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Duskova/Bidar would have been key to that chase. There's almost 300 points between Czech Republic and Israel and over 300 between Czech Republic and South Korea, and Brezina can only earn incremental WS points in Men.
 

Vagabond

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I thought Tkachenko had Israeli citizenship through his wife? (I can't imagine he and Tobias would have invested the past 3 years in training if he didn't?)

Israel no longer extends citizenship to spouses of citizens unless they qualify by other means. Tkachenko could have avoided this quandry by converting to Judaism. (A non-Orthodox conversion outside of the country would be recognized for purposes of the Law of Return.) The fact that he has apparently chosen not to do so indicates that other things matter more to him than representing Israel at the Olympics.
 

Debbie S

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Israel no longer extends citizenship to spouses of citizens unless they qualify by other means. Tkachenko could have avoided this quandry by converting to Judaism. (A non-Orthodox conversion outside of the country would be recognized for purposes of the Law of Return.) The fact that he has apparently chosen not to do so indicates that other things matter more to him than representing Israel at the Olympics.
Thanks for the info. I guess there is still time left to either convert or find a Jewish grandparent. If not, that's too bad, b/c T/T achieved career-high placements last season. I hope Israel can at least send T/Z to the Olys and take part in the TE.
 

kwanfan1818

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The French Fed has no obligation to replace anyone at IdF at this point, because it's within 14 days of the event. A withdrawal this week from Skate America should mean mandatory replacement.

JGP points earned this season. If there's a total, then the highest GP skater/team can only earn incremental points above this:

KOR:
  • Men: 108. 1st-8th would earn incremental 83-292 points. (Cha, SA)
  • Ladies: 225. 1st-5th would earn 11-175 incremental points. (Park, NHK; Choi, SA)
AUS:
  • Men: 108. 1st-8th would earn 83-292 incremental points. (Kerry on alt list)
  • Ladies: 0. 1-8th would earn full points (191-400). (Craine on alt list)
ISR:
  • Men: 164. 1st-8th would earn 27-236 incremental points. (Samohin, SA; Bychenko, NHK and IdF)
  • Dance: 182. 1st-8th would earn 9-218 incremental points.
T/T should be 5th at NHK, barring extreme rustiness, which would mean 80 incremental points. Kerry, at least on paper, would have a better chance to earn points than Craine at IdF or SA were he to land his hardest jumps, but he can only earn incremental points.
 

tony

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T/T should be 5th at NHK, barring extreme rustiness, which would mean 80 incremental points. Kerry, at least on paper, would have a better chance to earn points than Craine at IdF or SA were he to land his hardest jumps, but he can only earn incremental points.

Speaking of rustiness, I'm not so sure that Sinitsina and Katsalapov are in the best shape this season so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Israelis pushing for 4th place, which would make Kerry or Craine's task even more difficult if either were to pick up a second event.
 

seabm7

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JGP points earned this season. If there's a total, then the highest GP skater/team can only earn incremental points above this:

KOR:
  • Ladies: 225. 1st-5th would earn 11-175 incremental points. (Park, NHK; Choi, SA)

GP points have precedence over JGP's. That means, 6th-8th in GP by a Korean lady would overwrite the JGP points, decreasing the total points.
 

nimi

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Speaking of rustiness, I'm not so sure that Sinitsina and Katsalapov are in the best shape this season so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Israelis pushing for 4th place, which would make Kerry or Craine's task even more difficult if either were to pick up a second event.
Oh no. Does this mean I have to root for SinKats?! :drama:

Well, first time for everything, I guess...
 

kwanfan1818

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GP points have precedence over JGP's. That means, 6th-8th in GP by a Korean lady would overwrite the JGP points, decreasing the total points.
That's why I calculated the incremental points. A senior Lady would have to place 5th changed to 6th to earn 11 net points, 236-225, for example. A win would add 175 points in total, or 400-225.

ETA: Now I understand what you were saying, and you are right, but it's only 7th or 8th, as I also misread the chart and thought 236 was for 5th, not 6th place:

7th: Korea loses 12 points
8th: Korea loses 34 points

Still not enough to matter for Australia, given the current differential.

This system also rewards members whose skaters earned points at Euros and 4C's, but missed the final at Worlds. IMO, they should never count more Euros WS points than the lowest amount at Worlds, if a member's skater/team didn't earn any Worlds points.
 
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Seerek

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The fact that the ISU can't do proper "If -> Then -> Else" logic when creating the criteria, we get into issues such as Team Australia (and for that matter, Team USA for the # of qualified pairs).
 

misskarne

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If Alexandrovskaya/Windsor had missed the free skate at Worlds then they would have been able to count the 500 points from the World Junior Championships and Australia would be in the team event.

I just facepalmed so hard I nearly gave myself concussion.
 

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