IF All Ladies skated clean in Nagano 1998 ...

[olympic]

I love doing these threads. This is a big one:

I see two different sets of arguments here: (1) Kwan v. Lipinski and (2) The 'gaggle' shooting for the Bronze medal.

1. Kwan v. Lipinski - Both skaters were 'clean' at Nagano, but questions lurk in my mind:

a. Was Kwan's 3F clean in the LP or IOW, would a better executed 3F have improved her tech mark?
b. Also, would a 3T-3T made any difference in her tech mark as opposed to 2 3Ls, the first in a relatively simple sequence?
c. Would her Nationals LP have done it here even if it had the same tech content?

No arguments about Lipinski. I don't think both programs could've been skated any better.

2. Bronze medal rush - Slutskaya, Butyrskaya, Gusmeroli, Lu and Szewczenko (let's say she was healthy). I think that is a fair assessment of those w/ a reasonable possibility to medal:

a. Slutskaya - Probably the most likely to get the Bronze if all were clean; ambitious jumps and spins, and the judges LOVED her.
b. Butyrskaya - Strong SP and a true Lutz. She was skating to Otonal, one of her seminal pieces.
c. Gusmeroli - Gorgeous jumps and current World Bronze Medalist. She had that unique French talent, but was she better than the Russians on a good day?
d. Lu - Unfortunately, as emotional as her performances were, could she have kept up w/ the above 3? Her jump technique was not as sound in '98 as the above 3.
e. Szewczenko - See Lu above. But, she finished ahead of the Russians at the CSF and was leading after the SP at '98 Euros. Still, her comeback may have created an emotional moment again at Nagano.

Others that may have mattered were Bobek, Hubert and Bonaly, but would they have beaten any of that first group if they skated clean. Bobek had big jumps and could perform. She also was skating to Zorba the Greek as her SP.

Hubert beat Lipinski at Trophee Lalique in the Fall. Her programs were always unique and when she was 'on', skating with speed, the judges really went for her (positions on the ice to me were always a bit awkward)

I think Bonaly was toast at this point in her career: Injury, no Lutz ,and the ISU judges never cared for her.

Others included Malinina and Cupcake. But this was Cupcake's first big competition IIRC, and Malinina didn't come from a big federation and didn't offer quite the array of superlatives to make her competitive with the aforementioned.

What say you?

 

[VGThuy]

If we're saying "clean", I'm going to assume Lu Chen's jumps would be fully rotated and have the same snap and execution as her prime (or close to it). If we're talking about THAT scenario, then I can see Lu Chen winning it on presentation even with those spins. The reason why I think Slutskaya had an argument for bronze (a real legit argument) in Nagano is due to the nature of both Butryskaya and Lu Chen's jumps, Chen especially. So I need to understand how we're defining clean for Lu Chen here. And I definitely do think Bobek was a medal contender or at least a top 6 finisher if she was clean.

Thinking about it, a truly clean and inspired Nagano was something we were robbed of, just like a truly clean Albertville - given the talent. I don't think the same about Lillehammer just because it just seemed like all the skaters there did what we expected of them and performed there like it was a pro comp (I mean that in a good way).

 

[AxelAnnie]

I think Tara would win no matter what. Her joy, her tech content, couldn't be beat. Scott Hamilton said, and I think this is very true. Michelle skated not to lose, and Tara skated to win.

I don't know that Bobek could have won. But boy was she good when she wanted to be. Can you imagine how her career could have been had she actually applied herself.

Lu Chen - She was exquisite. She didn't skate all that well....but she made it through and given the year she had had with her Federation, that was a real accomplishment. Another Scott Hamilton "I love it when good things happen to good people".

I really enjoyed Malinina. Something shown through from her soul when she skated. And, boy did she have a rough row to hoe.

 

[olympic]

If we're saying "clean", I'm going to assume Lu Chen's jumps would be fully rotated and have the same snap and execution as her prime (or close to it). If we're talking about THAT scenario, then I can see Lu Chen winning it on presentation even with those spins. The reason why I think Slutskaya had an argument for bronze (a real legit argument) in Nagano is due to the nature of both Butryskaya and Lu Chen's jumps, Chen especially. So I need to understand how we're defining clean for Lu Chen here. And I definitely do think Bobek was a medal contender or at least a top 6 finisher if she was clean.

Thinking about it, a truly clean and inspired Nagano was something we were robbed of, just like a truly clean Albertville - given the talent. I don't think the same about Lillehammer just because it just seemed like all the skaters there did what we expected of them and performed there like it was a pro comp (I mean that in a good way).

When I start these threads, I tend to keep it within the realm of what they were capable of that season. But of course every is able to pontificate on the premise as they see fit.

FTR, I think the Lu of 1996 would have blown Slute, Bute, and Gusmeroli and the other ladies away

 

[alchemy void]

1. Kwan
2. Lipinski

3. If all the bronze contenders went clean and skated to their full potential, I think a case can be made for Gusmeroli to come out on top. Interesting program, big jumps, great spins, unique transitions for the time, good speed, etc. I think she had the best program amongst all the bronze contenders.

Bobek would have been a contender for bronze too, but I'm assuming the politics were against a sweep.

Then Lulu, Butyrskaya, and Slutskaya (the judges were over her juvenile LP and inconsistent jumping that season).

 

[bardtoob]

The Nagano podium consisted of the 3 most recent World Champions, which is a classic default choice. I have no reason to believe that would change if EVERYBODY skated clean.

If Lulu had been skating cleaner and Michelle had a nicer air position on the 3F, then the podium would have probably been:

1) Michelle
2) Lulu
3) Tara

on the basis that Michelle was the most well rounded skater while Lulu had extremely mature presentation while Tara had extremely strong technical content.

 

[LarrySK8]

This can also get interesting, and even though Tara did have two 3-3 combinations, we could make a case for MK's program to have one 3-3 as originally planned in our discussion. She didn't do it because of injury.

If a skater had all the triples and a 3-3 back then, that's what they needed. Not as much weight was given for someone doing 2 combinations unless others didn't complete any (2002 SLC) and so I think with the differences in maturity it would come down to the artistic mark and skating order.

One could argue artistically MK first; Lu second; Maria third; Tara 4th; Tanya 5th; Vanessa 6th and Irina and the rest including Bobek not in the final group artistically.

Technically, I still find Tara all roller skate-y and junior-ish. Maria was wonderful, but those stiff knees and anxiety - but we said the magical if!

I say one could argue Maria for the win under the magical if conditions.

 

[LarrySK8]

The Nagano podium consisted of the 3 most recent World Champions, which is a classic default choice. I have no reason to believe that would change if EVERYBODY skated clean.

If Lulu had been skating cleaner and Michelle had a nicer air position on the 3F, then the podium would have probably been:

1) Michelle
2) Lulu
3) Tara

on the basis that Michelle was the most well rounded skater while Lulu had extremely mature presentation while Tara had extremely strong technical content.

Don't forget Maria under the Magical If conditions She could win.

 

[tony]

If we are including the SP+LP, then I don't know. I would've had Maria 2nd ahead of Tara in the short as it was, but the judges obviously weren't going to do that so I'll keep the top 3 the same. A clean Gusmeroli was competitive with Lipinski at Worlds the year before (and probably deserved 1st in Lausanne anyways but IIRC it was 5-4 Lipinski) so she could've also made it interesting- not necessarily for dropping Tara down, but for making a potential spread between Butyrskaya and Chen in the SP standings. Szewczenko and Slutskaya even likely would've finished ahead of Chen there-- Tanja was the story of the year. Had Czako not WD, she also could've been in contention for that final group. Bonaly skated very well and was still behind Chen and Slutskaya. And then there's Bobek.

Even though it's a really big guess, I'd say the SP goes:
1. Kwan 2. Lipinski 3. Butyrskaya 4. Szewczenko 5. Slutskaya 6. Gusmeroli 7. Bobek 8. Chen 9. Bonaly 10. Czako

(ETA here- I never would've put Szewczenko that high based on some of the element quality issues, even if clean, but I think the judges were ready to put her in medal contention as she had a strong season to that point. I think the only thing I'm not completely confident on is the marking of 6-8. Gusmeroli was so good in the SPs element-wise, but I think an event with so many good skates would've pushed her down.)

A clean Butyrskaya in the LP probably finishes 4th behind the 3 actual medalists, as she did. Chen was just magical with a so-so skate.. imagine a 'clean' skate, but far behind in the SP to challenge Michelle or Tara. But she'd also be skating in the second-to-last group in my hypothetical. If Tanja repeated her Champions Series Final energy, she might have even fought for 4th over Maria in the long. But her programs came to such a crawl..

So LP:
1. Kwan 2. Lipinski 3. Chen 4. Butyrskaya 5. Szewczenko 6. Slutskaya

Overall:
1. Kwan 2. Lipinski 3. Butyrskaya 4. Chen 5. Szewczenko 6. Slutskaya

And yes, I agree that Gusmeroli had a great LP that year. I loved her from 1998-2000.

 

[olympic]

Interesting that some of you are ranking Lulu so high. The judges had her all over the place: The Aussie judge have her a 4.9 for a cleanish SP. That sadly makes me doubt she would’ve stood a chance against someone like Slute or Bute clean. Those 2 made more mistakes but were not far behind Lu who only had a bad a step out of a 3F in the LP. Again Lu’s bronze was a hell of a story so it pains me to say that she would not have medaled

 

[VGThuy]

Lulu really wasn’t clean though in both the SP and LP. She didn’t stumble in that SP but at least her combo jump was iffy with regarding to rotation and the exits weren’t the best, and I’m sure some of those spins incurred deductions - if not deductions than at least marks off for lack of centering and flying camel and combo spin and positions on the back position of her combo spin. Her spiral sequence only had one actual held spiral on an edge as well. That’s why I think a “clean” Lulu wouldn’t have been judged or perceived the same way as she was in Nagano were she backed into that bronze medal no matter how inspiring her LP skate was.

 

[bardtoob]

Don't forget Maria under the Magical If conditions She could win.

Maria's hair wasn't good enough in Nagano, even if she managed to not be behind the music.

 

[alchemy void]

I think it's difficult for me to reconcile Lulu coming up with bronze in this scenario, because she skated relatively close to her maximum ability in Nagano, whereas all the other bronze contenders skated so far below their hypothetical best.

And while I think she absolutely deserved her medal and was happy to see her win, I can't help but compare to her '94-'96 peak, which is some of my favorite skating in the 90s. She was great in Nagano, but not the same skater as she was a few years prior.

 

[SmallFairy]

Did Lulu land her 3,3 combo clean at any point during the season? Her attempt at the end of the FS was heavily UR, but it was still a very gutsy move and I think the judges rewarded her for trying.

I loved Slutskaya’s program, her earlier programs was so much more fun than the latter, heavy warhorses. Her dress was also much better than at Euros. And she had a 3,3 too. (Did she land it, it was it at worlds?)

Bobek if clean would have gotten huge marks, the judges always went with her. She had such huge jumps and that sparkle. But she hadn’t been on for a while. What was her planned FS content? I haven’t watched this in ages, but I have watched it a thousand times earlier

Bute had the momentum of being newly crowned Euro champion, Slutskaya had just been defeated.

What about Rechnio? She skated lights out in the SP at worlds a month later and was second after that phase, beating Bute and Slute. The judges clearly had a thing for her. Same with Hubert.

 

[casken]

Wasn't Slutskaya planning a 3sal/3loop and 3toe/3toe? I feel like she would have been podium for sure with that.

 

[olympic]

I think it's difficult for me to reconcile Lulu coming up with bronze in this scenario, because she skated relatively close to her maximum ability in Nagano, whereas all the other bronze contenders skated so far below their hypothetical best.

And while I think she absolutely deserved her medal and was happy to see her win, I can't help but compare to her '94-'96 peak, which is some of my favorite skating in the 90s. She was great in Nagano, but not the same skater as she was a few years prior.

^THIS sums up my thinking on Lu and her chances, and again that is painful to say because for me, she was THE story in the ladies event

Wasn't Slutskaya planning a 3sal/3loop and 3toe/3toe? I feel like she would have been podium for sure with that.

Did she ever land a successful 3-3 during the season? If so, I just think the judges who absolutely loved her would have given her podium-worthy marks.

I think Butyrskaya was already doing the 3T-1L-3S sequence, wasn't she? She had a true Lutz and was skating to Otonal which really fired up the crowd if skated clean (her spins could be meh, but so could Lulu's). This also gives her a shot for the podium and getting past Lu, but I think w/in her own federation, they preferred Slute to Bute.

Szewczenko's performances were also emotional due to her comeback from illness and she did 2 3Zs. Other than that, I didn't see the difficulty of the 2 Russian ladies in her performances.

Gusmeroli did not have a 3-3 combo or sequence AFAIK, but I think in many respects she had better all around SS than anyone except Kwan at the time (includes Lipinski, but she had the most ambitious tech and was World Champ).

Bobek was a good skater but did not have big jump sequences. I think she may have lost a bit on tech to Slute, Bute and Gusmeroli, and on the 2nd mark to Lu

After a lot of thought, I see it as all clean -

1. Kwan
2. Lipinski
3. Slutskaya
4. Butyrskaya
5. Gusmeroli
6. Lu
7. Bobek
8. Szewczenko

 

[VGThuy]

I think it's difficult for me to reconcile Lulu coming up with bronze in this scenario, because she skated relatively close to her maximum ability in Nagano, whereas all the other bronze contenders skated so far below their hypothetical best.

And while I think she absolutely deserved her medal and was happy to see her win, I can't help but compare to her '94-'96 peak, which is some of my favorite skating in the 90s. She was great in Nagano, but not the same skater as she was a few years prior.

To me, the thread prompt wasn't whether each skater skated up to their potential but whether they were clean. I think up to their potential is a tricky question because maybe what they gave us WAS their potential at that event at that point in time given their mental make up and physical abilities. I can't give Slutskaya credit for two 3/3s when she attempted a 3toe/3toe but not the 3sal/3loop. Whereas Lulu did attempt a 3toe/3toe and given the prompt, if she was "clean" with that and every other jump...

 

[olympic]

To me, the thread prompt wasn't whether each skater skated up to their potential but whether they were clean. I think up to their potential is a tricky question because maybe what they gave us WAS their potential at that event at that point in time given their mental make up and physical abilities. I can't give Slutskaya credit for two 3/3s when she attempted a 3toe/3toe but not the 3sal/3loop. Whereas Lulu did attempt a 3toe/3toe and given the prompt, if she was "clean" with that and every other jump...

I tried to base my theoretical on what element(s) the skater had successfully completed at some point in competition during the season. Also not counting practices. An exception would be Kwan who but for a toe injury could do a 3T-3T, so I allowed for things like that.

 

[tony]

Butyrskaya was not doing 3+3 seq until 2000 season. She often was only doing 6 triples in Otonal in ‘98.

I still think based on when she and Irina skated similarly and them giving it to Maria (several times that season), she would’ve easily beaten Irina in Nagano had they both skated clean. I thought Irina actually deserved 4th in the LP over Maria as it was, as Maria was not very good but she still pulled it off 5-4 (and lost bronze 5-4).

Tanja, as I mentioned in my first post, was the story of the year. She wasn’t going to be pushed behind both Maria and Irina. She actually may have beaten both of them if she could get the crowd behind her and skate like she did at CSFinal.

Gusmeroli, as much as I think her LP really was a masterpiece (and a great SP too) probably just wouldn’t have been a factor with those five plus a clean, emotional Chen.

Bobek, I have no idea what the judges would’ve done but I can’t say her LP that season was extremely riveting.

 

[VGThuy]

Bobek, I have no idea what the judges would’ve done but I can’t say her LP that season was extremely riveting.

You can say that again. I guess that spiral that actually spiraled in a circle was a riveting part. Other than that...

 

[Coco]

Michelle's tiny wobble on the 3f in the FS was not why she lost. The ice rink in Nagano was larger than in Philadelphia and this highlighted Tara's speed relative to Michelle.

Tara covered more ice and accomplished the same # of triples + 2a in 6 jumping passes to Michelle's 8 jumping passes. This put her definitively ahead on the 1st mark, imo and left her a lot more time to chip away at the gap in the 2nd mark.

ETA: Bobek's SP was riveting, though. Would have been interesting if she pulled off a clean outside edge lutz combo and hit everything else.

 

[VGThuy]

I kinda think asking Bobek to hit a clean outside edge on her Lutz would be like asking Kwan to land a 3axel.

 

[sonsofanarchy]

I think Butyrskaya would have won the bronze easily in that scenario. Her long program was by far the worst she did the entire season, even the other imperfect ones. Compared to her skates of the same program at the 98 Europeans and even 98 worlds minus the last minute fall it was about 60% of her best while Slutskaya's was about 90% of hers, and Chen skated far better than anyone imagined she could at that point. And Butyrskaya still nearly won the bronze even then.

I would imagine results something like:

1. Lipinski
2. Kwan
3. Butyrskaya
4. Slutskaya
5. Bobek
6. Gusmeroli
7. Chen

 

[sonsofanarchy]

If we're saying "clean", I'm going to assume Lu Chen's jumps would be fully rotated and have the same snap and execution as her prime (or close to it). If we're talking about THAT scenario, then I can see Lu Chen winning it on presentation even with those spins. The reason why I think Slutskaya had an argument for bronze (a real legit argument) in Nagano is due to the nature of both Butryskaya and Lu Chen's jumps, Chen especially. So I need to understand how we're defining clean for Lu Chen here. And I definitely do think Bobek was a medal contender or at least a top 6 finisher if she was clean.

Thinking about it, a truly clean and inspired Nagano was something we were robbed of, just like a truly clean Albertville - given the talent. I don't think the same about Lillehammer just because it just seemed like all the skaters there did what we expected of them and performed there like it was a pro comp (I mean that in a good way).

Isn't that kind of a silly way to look at it, as that is implying Chen in 98 was as good a skater as she was in 95 or 96, which she clearly was nowhere close to, even at her "best". It is basically inventing a new fantasy skater altogether.

Even in that hypothetical though Chen did skate her best at the 96 worlds and still lost to Kwan. I would have had her beating her, but the fact is to the judges, rightly or wrongly, she didn't. So how would she then beat her and also Lipinski who beat Kwan in 98, when she couldn't even beat Kwan in 96. Kwan in 98 obviously if anything was a better skater than 96.

 

[VGThuy]

Isn't that kind of a silly way to look at it, as that is implying Chen in 98 was as good a skater as she was in 95 or 96, which she clearly was nowhere close to, even at her "best". It is basically inventing a new fantasy skater altogether.

Even in that hypothetical though Chen did skate her best at the 96 worlds and still lost to Kwan. I would have had her beating her, but the fact is to the judges, rightly or wrongly, she didn't. So how would she then beat her and also Lipinski who beat Kwan in 98, when she couldn't even beat Kwan in 96. Kwan in 98 obviously if anything was a better skater than 96.

No, it's not silly. The original prompt just said "clean". People are adding their own interpretations as to what that means. I took it literally as in "ALL Ladies Skated CLEAN in Nagano 1998". Without further directives or definitions or constraints, I took it to be the plain meaning of the thread title and prompt, which is all I could go by. Clean means all of Lu Chen's jumps would be landed and fully rotated, including her 3toe/3toe attempt. And I was only talking about jumps, not the rest of Chen's skating. And I never said anything about her beating Kwan and Lipinski. Again, that's you adding more to the words written.

 

[alchemy void]

I kinda think asking Bobek to hit a clean outside edge on her Lutz would be like asking Kwan to land a 3axel.

Or Lu Chen rotating a 3toe-3toe.

Bobek if clean would have gotten huge marks, the judges always went with her. She had such huge jumps and that sparkle. But she hadn’t been on for a while. What was her planned FS content? I haven’t watched this in ages, but I have watched it a thousand times earlier

I think Bobek only had six planned triples. 2 flips , a loop, sal, and two toes. Which probably kills her chances in this scenario.

Changing my pick here: Lenka Kulovana wins bronze, rotating the flip and lutz in the LP along with a great 3-3.

 

[gkelly]

Or Lu Chen rotating a 3toe-3toe.

In 1998.

She could do it in 1991

 

[VGThuy]

Or Lu Chen rotating a 3toe-3toe.



I think Bobek only had six planned triples. 2 flips , a loop, sal, and two toes. Which probably kills her chances in this scenario.

Changing my pick here: Lenka Kulovana wins bronze, rotating the flip and lutz in the LP along with a great 3-3.

Hey, at least she attempted it and landed some in her career in the past. Bobek never attempted an outside edge. I guess we'd have to include edges when it comes to "clean" then. I thought "clean" just meant rotation. In that case, Lipinski and Kwan and Slutskaya also all do clearly clean Lutzes. There will be no lips either.

I guess we all have some things to reconsider now. Does clean also mean all spins meet required rotations as well?

 

[tony]

To me, clean isn't going to mean pulling all of their best elements of the past or future into one performance. It's the best they could've done at that particular time- ie. Bobek was never going to have a clean edge on the Lutz, Lipinski same thing, Chen was going to have slow spins and a flying camel that traveled 10 feet, Szewczenko was going to have an Axel and flying spin with no lift, etc.

Meanwhile queen Maria would have done all the jumps just wonderfully

 

[sonsofanarchy]

To me, clean isn't going to mean pulling all of their best elements of the past or future into one performance.

I don't even understand even that though. Since for instance Chen of 98 was literally not capable of doing some elements as well as 93-96, even if she skated her best. She simply wasn't as good a skater anymore, especialy technical skater. The same would apply to Bonaly, there are many elements she could never do as well as 93-95, or some she could no longer do at all. And could be applied to numerous women in that event.