ISU to evaluate feasibility of 2020-21 skating season

[Orm Irian]

As time goes by, we are learning that 98 to 99% of people who get this ***** either don’t know they ever even had it or recover just fine.

Once upon a time we thought many people who recovered from polio were just fine, too. Then they lived for long enough that we learned about post-polio syndrome. And we've only recently discovered that a dose of measles, even if you've been vaccinated, resets your immune system and wipes out your other attained immunities, leaving you prey to every marauding bug that passes by. I wish that everyone who's recovered from this wretched lurgi would get back to full health as fast as possible and never have to think about it again, but experience suggests that there are going to be knock-on health effects from this thing a decade or two or four down the track that we can't even see coming yet, that may affect anyone from the person who was on a ventilator for three weeks (on top of the muscle atrophy, kidney damage, weakened lungs etc that they already have and will have for a long time if not a lifetime) and managed to pull through the cytokine storm to the person who had a sniffy nose and a funny-tasting mouth for a couple of days and thought nothing of it at the time.

 

[Japanfan]

Whether the lockdown strategy, or lack of it, was right I leave others to decide, but if there's one country in the world where the ***** will have done its worst by next year, it would appear to be Sweden.

Of course it may be that herd immunity has not yet been established in Sweden by next year due to all the voluntary social distancing measures being adopted, but if it has been it may be a relatively safe place to travel to, plus you would assume they'd be quite willing to accept skaters from all round the world - their borders are still open as we speak, plus if you do have herd immunity it shouldn't bother you too much if people are coming to you from countries where the ***** is still very prevalent.

Overall I feel there has to be some confidence that the World Champs will be held in Sweden next year just because of their overall policies, whereas anywhere else would appear to be very doubtful.

I've been hoping that things will be back to normal by 2021, which may unfortunately just be wishful thinking.

And even if Sweden is a relatively safe place to travel to, it's possible that skaters will be coming from places that are no so safe. It boggles the mind to think the horror show that is the US will continue through to 2021. Which would be even more catastrophic than things are now. The numbers are already really hard to process.

Skaters and their teams will need to be willing to send their skaters to Sweden, and skaters will need to be willing to quarantine as needed, even if only in their countries of origin.

As for ice rinks, I've said it elsewhere, but I can't imagine setting foot on the ice until 2021 at least, when I feel like we might have a better sense of YKW is and the possibility of a vaccine. I know that's not what the ISU wants, but I might respect them more if they took a stand and shut down the 2020-2021 season as a precautionary measure and then maybe wrote some guidelines for what to do in the event of a catastrophic event.

I think it's a bit too soon to shut down the 2021 season. Though it will obviously not be as difficult to coordinate a Nationals as opposed to an international event. Nationals will be necessary to qualify skaters for 2022.

 

[starrynight]

Does anyone here follow summer sports closely? What are they doing considering there may be an Olympics next year?

 

[carriecmu0503]

Exactly what position are you in to guarantee that there will be a vaccine? Even if there is, like you said we have no idea on a timeline. Vaccines take years to come out. We can’t hide in our homes for years. Heck, the economy can’t even handle us hiding out in our homes for several more months. I also never said I was anti-vaccination. You chose to put those words in my mouth. I merely said I’m highly skeptical that there will be a vaccine for this. Beyond that, you have every right to hide out in your home for the rest of your life if that’s what you choose to do. The rest of us need to regain our right to go to work to earn money to support ourselves. Unless you are elderly or severely immune compromised, if you are too afraid to live your life because you might die, you are already dead. My county has nearly 3 1/2 million people. We have had 200 deaths, the vast majority of whom have been in their 90s with severe underlying health conditions who would’ve died soon anyways. We now have nearly 20% unemployment. The numbers absolutely do not justify continue lockdowns.

There absolutely will be a vaccine for the BB. We don’t know the exact timeline, but there will be one.

The idea that the fact that there’s no vaccine for HIV bears any relevance to the current situation is ridiculous. HIV and the BB are not remotely similar. HIV is a retrovirus. It is stunningly complicated. The BB is not a retrovirus, it is no more complicated than anything else we have a vaccine for.

And the only reason there’s never been a vaccine for this specific type of illness before is that we have never needed one. The typical version that many people have had is the common cold. There are no vaccines for any type of common cold because they are not dangerous. The actual dangerous versions of this type of agent were SARS and MERS. In both cases, vaccines were in development and were very far along at the point where the disease died out. The MERS vaccine had already made it through phase 1 clinical trials. The only reason vaccines for those were never developed is that there turned out to be no need. And no, that will not happen now. This disease is wildly more contagious and has spread much further and faster.

The 98 to 99% of people don’t know they have it or recover just fine? That’s nothing that number does not exist. The testing data isn’t good enough to show that kind of number with any certainty. We also don’t know if people who have recovered may face long term complications.

Heck, for the moment we don’t know for sure that people who have had the disease can’t get it again. We suspect that to be true, but even that is not yet proven.

So maybe don’t bounce in and spout anti-vaccines talking points like no one will call you on it?

 

[starrynight]

My county has nearly 3 1/2 million people. We have had 200 deaths, the vast majority of whom have been in their 90s with severe underlying health conditions who would’ve died soon anyways. We now have nearly 20% unemployment. The numbers absolutely do not justify continue lockdowns.

Yes but I’m sure with a good outcome like that your fellow citizens wouldn’t want a heap of infected people from foreign countries with high infection levels coming in and then really kicking off the infection rate.

If we are talking about holding international competitions we are talking about many countries reopening borders for free non-essential travel with no quarantine.

That’s the scary bit for countries that have had good outcomes. The risk of ending back at square one. Countries that have big infection rates probably don’t have much to lose though.

 

[carriecmu0503]

Yes but I’m sure with a good outcome like that your fellow citizens wouldn’t want a heap of infected people from foreign countries with high infection levels coming in and then really kicking off the infection rate.

If we are talking about holding international competitions we are talking about many countries reopening borders for free non-essential travel with no quarantine.

That’s the scary bit for countries that have had good outcomes. The risk of ending back at square one. Countries that have big infection rates probably don’t have much to lose though.

My county is in California, the most populous state in the US. Being that we’re in the US, there’s not much we can do to keep any other infected Americans from other parts of the country out. We can’t even keep people from Mexico who are infected out. My point in all of this is life is for the living, and life is going to have to go on at some point. It is not realistic to wait for a vaccine for life to go on.

 

[starrynight]

My county is in California,

Oh I read ‘country’.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Exactly what position are you in to guarantee that there will be a vaccine?

I have a masters degree in public health, but the particular position I’m in is that, unlike some people, I’m capable of reading and listening to what is said by experts instead of conspiracy theorists. And I never said you claimed to be anti-vax. I said you were citing anti-vax talking points, which “there’s never been a vaccine for this type of infection” specifically is.

But this is not the appropriate thread to once again argue about the fact that the reasons that counties like yours have had a very small number of cases is precisely because we shut the country down or that multiple articles have been posted showing the death toll that would be required to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, so I’m out.

 

[starrynight]

The question will be working around the restrictions that the many countries of this world have in place.

To have a GP even will usually require skaters from USA, Russia, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, China, Australia, Germany, Korea, Spain, Poland etc and more to all be there.

That means skaters from all those countries being allowed to freely travel there and back with no quarantine.

It doesn’t just matter what the host country is doing internally.

 

[mjb52]

I'm pretty sure I know exactly what county she was talking about and until almost mid March it had thousands of visitors every day from around the world, so doesn't the fact that it has such a low number of infections and deaths say something about the assumptions driving this debate? Because if they were correct, it should be in terrible shape and yet... it's not. It's information like this that isn't being thought about deeply enough. eta: actually, she may be talking about a different county, b/c the one I'm thinking of hasn't even hit 100 deaths yet! Which only highlights my point.

 

[carriecmu0503]

Yes, the county I live in does have thousands of visitors every day from around the world, at least until two months ago. You are exactly right.

I'm pretty sure I know exactly what county she was talking about and until almost mid March it had thousands of visitors every day from around the world, so doesn't the fact that it has such a low number of infections and deaths say something about the assumptions driving this debate? Because if they were correct, it should be in terrible shape and yet... it's not. It's information like this that isn't being thought about deeply enough. eta: actually, she may be talking about a different county, b/c the one I'm thinking of hasn't even hit 100 deaths yet! Which only highlights my point.

 

[carriecmu0503]

This article basically blows your theory out of the water about that lockdowns worked:

Coronavirus Cases in Georgia, Florida Continue to Decline Despite Business Openings

Some states engaged in reopening their economies have not yet seen coronavirus outbreaks feared by health officials.In particular, Georgia and Florida, which were projected to see a sharp rise in new cases, have not experienced major new outbreaks in the past week. The average number of new...

news.yahoo.com

If you have a masters degree in public health, you should already be aware of this and not using over the top scare tactics that at this point are doing nothing but completely eroding trust around the world in “experts” like you.

I have a masters degree in public health, but the particular position I’m in is that, unlike some people, I’m capable of reading and listening to what is said by experts instead of conspiracy theorists. And I never said you claimed to be anti-vax. I said you were citing anti-vax talking points, which “there’s never been a vaccine for this type of infection” specifically is.

But this is not the appropriate thread to once again argue about the fact that the reasons that counties like yours have had a very small number of cases is precisely because we shut the country down or that multiple articles have been posted showing the death toll that would be required to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, so I’m out.

 

[MacMadame]

Exactly what position are you in to guarantee that there will be a vaccine? Even if there is, like you said we have no idea on a timeline.

This is pretty ironic given that a company just announced today that their stage 1 vaccine trial worked and, if continuing trials go as well, they will have a vaccine ready for the general public by Jan. 2021.

So... we already have one that seems to work and we have a timeline...

But, sure, it's impossible and everyone who wants to modify their behavior based on science is just a fear-monger.

Btw, the argument that we can't stay lockdown "forever" is also pretty dumb given that countries all over the world and all but 2 states in the US are in the process of opening up. So you are arguing that we shouldn't do something that no one is doing. I'm also going to guess that your county is farther into Stage 2 than most in CA given your low numbers of cases so you are farther along the path to economic recovery. It's definitely farther along than mine since we're still in Stage 1, which is appropriate given our numbers and where testing is.

 

[taz'smum]

This is pretty ironic given that a company just announced today that their stage 1 vaccine trial worked and, if continuing trials go as well, they will have a vaccine ready for the general public by Jan. 2021.

So... we already have one that seems to work and we have a timeline...

January is at the optimistic end of the delivery date window

In January, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases, said it would take about 12 to 18 months to get a vaccine on the market. Zaks said he agreed with that estimate for Moderna's vaccine, putting a delivery date somewhere between January and June of next year

With caveats

So far, the Moderna study subjects who were vaccinated even at 25 and 100 micrograms achieved antibody levels similar to or even higher than people who naturally became infected with the v***s.

But it's not clear whether natural infection confers immunity to re-infection, and so similarly it's not clear whether vaccination confers immunity.

"That's a good question, and the truth is, we don't know that yet," Zaks said. "We are going to have to conduct formal efficacy trials where you vaccinate many, many people, and then you monitor them in the ensuing months to make sure they don't get sick."

 

[clairecloutier]

This article basically blows your theory out of the water about that lockdowns worked:

https://news.yahoo.com/********-cases-georgia-florida-continue-153633256.html

If you have a masters degree in public health, you should already be aware of this and not using over the top scare tactics that at this point are doing nothing but completely eroding trust around the world in “experts” like you.

That article doesn't prove anything and in fact contains enough caveats to pretty much invalidate the headline. We don't know the rate of testing in either state, as the article plainly says. And Georgia's reopening is with "heavy restrictions," as the article itself says. Further, Florida's reopening is less than 2 weeks old, so probably we aren't seeing the full health effect yet, as I believe the virus has up to 14 days' incubation period. And it's been previously reported that Florida may not be reporting its case numbers in the same way as some other states. If you want to argue the anti-lockdown case, I'm sure there are better articles out there.

Also, there's no need to insult @Theatregirl1122. She has expertise in this area, which I am glad she's sharing, as I've been glad to hear from the other people on FSU with professional experience that touches on this subject. Her take on the likelihood of a vaccine seems largely similar to that of @aka_gerbil, a scientist who's also posted on the board about this subject.

 

[MsZem]

January is at the optimistic end of the delivery date window

Yes, but skaters are so obviously essential that they should be among the first in line to get vaccines

What does seem likely, at this point, is that there will not be another rain of Pooh bears again. Unless Hanyu ends up skating longer than Savchenko did.

 

[Coco]

Which article? @carriecmu0503

 

[taz'smum]

Whoops that "suggestion for the ISU " bit was for something else, I forgot to delete it!

Can you please delete that bit from your post @Zemgirl, as it is inappropriate in this context ?

 

[MacMadame]

January is at the optimistic end of the delivery date window

With caveats

Well yes. But the point is that we are well on our way to having a vaccine and it's very unlikely we won't have one in the near future (near being sometime in 2021).

Bottom line: The argument that we should make decisions based on never having a vaccine doesn't hold water with me.

 

[carriecmu0503]

The end of 2021 is over a year and a half away. If you seriously think the world can afford to hide out for the next 19+ months, respectfully, you have lost your mind.

Well yes. But the point is that we are well on our way to having a vaccine and it's very unlikely we won't have one in the near future (near being sometime in 2021).

Bottom line: The argument that we should make decisions based on never having a vaccine doesn't hold water with me.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I'm pretty sure I know exactly what county she was talking about and until almost mid March it had thousands of visitors every day from around the world, so doesn't the fact that it has such a low number of infections and deaths say something about the assumptions driving this debate? Because if they were correct, it should be in terrible shape and yet... it's not. It's information like this that isn't being thought about deeply enough. eta: actually, she may be talking about a different county, b/c the one I'm thinking of hasn't even hit 100 deaths yet! Which only highlights my point.

Is the assumption you’re trying to run on that if Orange County had not locked down and Disneyland had stayed open and people had somehow been allowed to keep coming that the death toll would have stayed low because the fact that it is low now even though lots of people came to Disneyland until mid March proves that international visitors and giant theme park level crowds are not dangerous during a pandemic?

 

[Dobre]

Meanwhile . . . I think this thread is about the feasibility of the 2020-2021 skating season.

 

[Immortelle]

And here was me thinking this thread was about the ISU and a discussion about next season...
How silly of me

 

[MacMadame]

The end of 2021 is over a year and a half away. If you seriously think the world can afford to hide out for the next 19+ months, respectfully, you have lost your mind.

The world is not hiding out now. Strawman argument.


As for the ISU, since they seem to be everyone's favorite punching bag. It doesn't matter what they did, it will be stupid and wrong! Or so I assume I will be reading in the future.

I think the ISU is doing the right thing by keeping their options open but having a definite date where they do a "go-no" decision. The definite date allows people to plan and not shutting everything down now gives them options as the world situation improves. It's also smart of them to try to figure out how to hold a World Championships in 2021 now and not wait until the Fall.

I also am assuming they are taking into consideration that skating as a sport will suffer long-term effects from this and doing what they can to plan for it and support their member federations. There is no indication that they are not.

This new "q" designation OTOH.

 

[starrynight]

The question will be working around the restrictions that the many countries of this world have in place.

To have a GP even will usually require skaters from USA, Russia, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, China, Australia, Germany, Korea, Spain, Poland etc and more to all be there.

That means skaters from all those countries being allowed to freely travel there and back with no quarantine.

It doesn’t just matter what the host country is doing internally.

Are we talking about skating competitions or are the USA members here arguing about domestic issues?

Skating is an international sport. So all the countries of the world have to be factored. It doesn't matter what each country's internal politics is. Just the logistics of whether international travel is open for all countries, such that these competitions can be reasonably fair and conducted in a reasonable manner.

A key factor is that something like the Grand Prix cannot be conducted with one competition a week in a different country if there are quarantines anywhere along the way for athletes. Probably likely that there will be some quarantines around the world by October/November.

As for Worlds/ 4CC / Euros. That will depend on the ability of athletes to leave their countries and get into the place where competitions are held. For 4CC and Euros a quarantine on the way back could disrupt training for Worlds.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

As mentioned in the other thread, Governor Newsom here in California is possibly opening sporting events in just a couple of weeks here… So maybe there is a glimmer of hope for US nationals in San Jose next year. Who knows..

Gov. Newsom announces pro sports, hair salons may reopen in next few weeks

Gov. Gavin Newsom laid out early guidance for much of the state to move into further reopening in the coming weeks, including hair salons and even sporting events.

abc7.com

 

[Bellanca]

Also, there's no need to insult @Theatregirl1122

I’m sure @Theatregirl1122 can take it without posters rushing to her defense. I don’t detect a fragile Pollyanna here. She’s a big girl, right? It’s ridiculous to assume there wouldn’t be some pushback to her comments.

 

[Bellanca]

And here was me thinking this thread was about the ISU and a discussion about next season...
How silly of me

Not the first one nor the last. I guess the “feasibility” took a hard turn.

Back on topic: the season is obviously in a holding pattern. It’s premature to carve in stone anything to do with competitions, yet. However, to cancel future events far-off from today would be a complete knee-jerk reaction from an already skittish ISU. Hope they keep their powder dry.

 

[Aussie Willy]

Not the first one nor the last. I guess the “feasibility” took a hard turn.

Back on topic: the season is obviously in a holding pattern. It’s premature to carve in stone anything to do with competitions, yet. However, to cancel future events far-off from today would be a complete knee-jerk reaction from an already skittish ISU. Hope they keep their powder dry.

I do think in the current climate they are right to be skittish. Organising major events is expensive and time consuming. Even skating clubs want to make sure they are not investing time, money and energy into something that may not happen.

 

[Bellanca]

I do think in the current climate they are right to be skittish. Organising major events is expensive and time consuming. Even skating clubs want to make sure they are not investing time, money and energy into something that may not happen.

Of course, I agree. Let the waters settle for a time before shelving everything, especially future competitions that could still be realistically scheduled. This would require reliable information and great patience from the ISU... Hoo Boy!