U.S. Ladies [#28]: Achieving 2020 Vision

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I’m not so sure that 3rd place is a lock for Trusova. Kihira can definitely win bronze., assuming that all perform to their abilities. Let’s see.

Agreed.

On points alone if one compares their performances from Europeans versus Four Continents, Kihira would have won that battle. You Young wasn't far behind Trusova, either.

 

[Maximillian]

Agreed.

On points alone if one compares their performances from Europeans versus Four Continents, Kihira would have won that battle. You Young wasn't far behind Trusova, either.

And in a just world (just being defined, as 'I get my way') Kirhira would have the silver behind Kostornaia...but we know that won't happen

 

[VGThuy]

What are the base value differences between Kihira and Kostornaia?

 

[Vagabond]

What are the base value differences between Kihira and Kostornaia?

Kostornaia, 2020 Europeans:
SP: 37.65
FS: 69.58

Kihira, 2020 Four Continents
SP: 37.29
FS: 64.62

Kihira lost points for popping a planned triple axel, so it's close.

ETA: Fixed, thanks to the astute post by @angi below.

 

[skatingguy]

What are the base value differences between Kihira and Kostornaia?

Kostornaia has a slight advantage in both programs. In the short program she has the edge because it's her combination that gets the bonus, whereas Kihira has the solo triple in the bonus, and in the free skate Kostornaia includes an euler combo. That means her non-triple jump elements are 2A, 2T, & 1Eu which have a higher base value than Kihira's two 2T & a 2Lo. In addition, Kostornaia's elements in the bonus are slightly more valuable, gaining her a little additional bonus.

 

[all_empty]

This music piece is so original that iTunes doesn’t even have it. Nor Amazon or any MP3 download site. Just a vinyl recording of it on YouTube. I quite like this music. Apparently the movie was a flop. Back to 1976 I think.

ANL loves a non-warhorse!!

The Ovation- Bill Conti- Slow Dancing in the Big City (1978)

m.youtube.com

Here's Yuka Sato's version (she's the only other one I can think of who skated to this -- and proceeded to ditch it after this competition): https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x34df3g

And Karen's version from Skate Canada (also ditched). I feel the jumps are timed to the music a bit better in this version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp4QuiPGtAc

 

[angi]

Kostornaia, 2020 Europeans:
SP: 37.65
FS: 78.60

Kihira, 2020 Four Continents
SP: 37.29
FS: 64.62

Kihira lost points for popping a planned triple axel, but Kostornaia lost points in the Free for underrotations.

Advantage, Kostornaia.

You've confused Kostornaia with Shcherbakova (who's BV is indeed 78.60 with two underrotations and one downgrade), Kostornaia's BV in the FS is 69.55 when clean.

 

[Maximillian]

This is the last I'll say on it because this is the U.S. ladies thread, but numbers (and quads) aside, Kihira and Kostornaia are the class of the ladies field right now in all aspects (though both deserve better LPs).

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

This is the last I'll say on it because this is the U.S. ladies thread, but numbers (and quads) aside, Kihira and Kostornaia are the class of the ladies field right now in all aspects (though both deserve better LPs).

Given how fabulous eachof their short programs are, and that they really showcase both skaters to maximum advantage, I wanted their free skates to be so much more. I would love both to do a Yuzu and return to last year's selections at some point.

As a side note, I'd never heard of Jennifer Thomas before Rika skated to Beautiful Storm. I hope somewhere along the track, she skates to her music again.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I loved Bradie's skates at Four Continents. She is a regal powerhouse. She can be soft one moment, and edgy the next. Is this her first Championship level individual medal?

 

[kwanfan1818]

Is this her first Championship level individual medal?

Yes, it is, internationally.

In senior international competition, she's been 5th at GPF, 2-4 at all individual GP's, and has medalled at all CS and senior B's but one, 2017 Lombardia (4th).

 

[Maximillian]

I loved Bradie's skates at Four Continents. She is a regal powerhouse. She can be soft one moment, and edgy the next. Is this her first Championship level individual medal?

Pretty sure it is, and I agree with you. Bradie looked terrific at 4CCs and I adore the SP. I must say that I am a bit concerned about the URs with her, as I said before, they were noticeable on replay (and not called) in Seoul. Depending on who the caller is, this could be a problem at Worlds.

 

[layman]

Here's Yuka Sato's version (she's the only other one I can think of who skated to this -- and proceeded to ditch it after this competition): https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x34df3g

And Karen's version from Skate Canada (also ditched). I feel the jumps are timed to the music a bit better in this version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp4QuiPGtAc

Karen has the best layback spin of any lady right now.

 

[PRlady]

Given how fabulous eachof their short programs are, and that they really showcase both skaters to maximum advantage, I wanted their free skates to be so much more. I would love both to do a Yuzu and return to last year's selections at some point.

As a side note, I'd never heard of Jennifer Thomas before Rika skated to Beautiful Storm. I hope somewhere along the track, she skates to her music again.

I downloaded Beautiful Storm some years ago when Angie Wang skated to it at Liberty. Now there's an obscure fact.

 

[Marco]

I loved Bradie's skates at Four Continents. She is a regal powerhouse. She can be soft one moment, and edgy the next.

I love the ChSq in the free. She timed it so well and took her time to hold each move.

 

[olympic]

Here are the mean international scores for top ladies this season:

1. Aljona Kostornaya - 239.85
2. Alexandra Trusova - 234.54
3. Anna Shcherbakova - 230.14
4. Rika Kihira - 227.03

5-7 Medvedeva, Zagitova, Tuktamysheva - Not at Worlds

8. Bradie Tennell - 210.32
9. Kamila Valieva - 210.04 (Juniors)
10. Mariah Bell - 207.90
11. Young You - 206.54
12. Alysa Liu - 205.28 (Juniors)
13. Ksenia Sinitsyna - 205.13 (Juniors)
14. Satoko Miyahara - 202.63
15. Kaori Sakamoto - 199.73 (Did not make JPN team)
16. Hae In Lee - 198.47 (Juniors)
17. Daria Usacheva - 197.32 (Juniors)
18. Viktoria Vasilieva - 193.21 (Juniors)

21. Eun Soo Lim - 187.91 (Did not make KOR team)
22. Yelin Kim -187.14

28. Wakaba Higuchi - 181.82 (PB - 210 at '18 Worlds; 207 at '20 4CCs)

 

[natsulian]

Often times, people converse about how had Bradie Tennell and Bell been at their peak a year or two ago, they would be on par with the Russians and Japanese, taking multiple Grand Prix medals and World titles. I think it to be EVEN MORE of a feat to see Bradie and Bell, veterans in the sport, battle it out with the youngsters and still be able to churn out quality programs that earn them medals in such a contentious and fastidious field. I hope that both ladies find it in their hearts to continue even after 2022. Bradie AND Bell have talked at length about looking up to Carolina's career and by observing THEIR career trajectories, I think both have yet to blossom into the skater that they can be. With all the talk about quads, triple-Axels, and jumping beans, Bradie and Bell are in a league that seems to have quintessentially combined modern figure skating with all its technicalities and the spine-tingling programs of old where people had time to breathe and enjoy. I cannot wait to see their growth.

 

[Marco]

Here are the mean international scores for top ladies this season:

1. Aljona Kostornaya - 239.85
2. Alexandra Trusova - 234.54
3. Anna Shcherbakova - 230.14
4. Rika Kihira - 227.03

5-7 Medvedeva, Zagitova, Tuktamysheva - Not at Worlds

8. Bradie Tennell - 210.32
9. Kamila Valieva - 210.04 (Juniors)
10. Mariah Bell - 207.90
11. Young You - 206.54
12. Alysa Liu - 205.28 (Juniors)
13. Ksenia Sinitsyna - 205.13 (Juniors)
14. Satoko Miyahara - 202.63

They would effectively make Bradie and Mariah 5th and 6th seeded at Worlds by these scores. It is likely that You, with a more confident 3axel and the blessing of a 4CCs silver medal (~220), will likely surpass both American ladies at Worlds - leaving the US ladies just 6th and 7th i.e. barely able to regain the 3rd spot.

Judging by how Satoko skated all season including the recent Bavarian Open, I think it is unlikely that she will be a threat for top 7 if they all perform well. Yelim scored a 202 at 4CCs so she can be a party spoiler if either Bradie or Mariah make mistakes.

 

[olympic]

They would effectively make Bradie and Mariah 5th and 6th seeded at Worlds by these scores. It is likely that You, with a more confident 3axel and the blessing of a 4CCs silver medal (~220), will likely surpass both American ladies at Worlds - leaving the US ladies just 6th and 7th i.e. barely able to regain the 3rd spot.

Judging by how Satoko skated all season including the recent Bavarian Open, I think it is unlikely that she will be a threat for top 7 if they all perform well. Yelim scored a 202 at 4CCs so she can be a party spoiler if either Bradie or Mariah make mistakes.

IDK. Young barely edged out Bradie at 4CCs and the competition took place in Young’s backyard. I think they have an equal shot at 5th.

I am unaware. How did Satoko do at the Bavarian Open?

Do you have an opinion on Wakaba? She had one of her best scores ever at 4CCs at 207 points. Her best ever at 2018 Worlds was 210 points and that would put her square in the middle of the Americans battling for a 3rd spot

 

[Marco]

IDK. Young barely edged out Bradie at 4CCs and the competition took place in Young’s backyard. I think they have an equal shot at 5th.

I am unaware. How did Satoko do at the Bavarian Open?

Do you have an opinion on Wakaba? She had one of her best scores ever at 4CCs at 207 points. Her best ever at 2018 Worlds was 210 points and that would put her square in the middle of the Americans battling for a 3rd spot

I think how You will place at worlds relative to Bradie and Mariah really depends on the 3axel and the < calls. Looking at the scores and international clout they are probably close enough that it will come down to the jumps.

Satoko won Bavarian Open with a 192 total, 3 <s in the short, 2<s and 1 << in the free. It took place roughly at the same time as 4CCs.

Wakaba is still up and down enough all season and with her trying the 3axel at Worlds, things are uncertain. Didn't she compete at some minor competition after Nationals and crash?

 

[Wyliefan]

There's usually at least one big surprise in ladies at Worlds. Sometimes more. Nerves come into play and strange things happen.

 

[Vagabond]

There's usually at least one big surprise in ladies at Worlds.

Alina Urushadze FTW!!!!

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

think how You will place at worlds relative to Bradie and Mariah really depends on the 3axel

When did Mariah achieve a 3 Axel? Last night?

 

[vesperholly]

When did Mariah achieve a 3 Axel? Last night?

Marco is referring to Young You's 3axel

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Marco is referring to Young You's 3axel

Ahhhh ok

That makes more sense

Well, if there’s been any year in recent years where the ladies can get three spots this could be one of those years. Especially the way both Bradie and Mariah have been skating!

 

[olympic]

I think how You will place at worlds relative to Bradie and Mariah really depends on the 3axel and the < calls. Looking at the scores and international clout they are probably close enough that it will come down to the jumps.

Satoko won Bavarian Open with a 192 total, 3 <s in the short, 2<s and 1 << in the free. It took place roughly at the same time as 4CCs.

Wakaba is still up and down enough all season and with her trying the 3axel at Worlds, things are uncertain. Didn't she compete at some minor competition after Nationals and crash?

I will also point out that Bradie got her score at 4CCs with a mistake on the opening 3-3 in the LP, so I believe that both Bradie and Young cannot afford mistakes. It will be interesting.

Sad to hear about Satoko. Usually at these smaller events, the scores are a little more inflated for top skaters, so 192 for me is telling. I think at this point, she is in a rebuilding years (as I've stated previously, it's like Mao in 2011 and 2012) and she might not be in the thick of it at Worlds next month. Not saying she will be in a nosedive, but she may not be a part of the Young-Bradie conversation.

I saw a practice clip of Wakaba landing a 3A in practice sometime after JPN Nationals. Didn't she attempt and fall on it 4CCs? I can't remember the protocols. I brought her up because TSL spoke about Wakaba in the context of the chances for the US ladies regaining 3 spots and were pessimistic. I raised an eyebrow because they were on the flip side - optimistic about her 3A, and insinuated she was an obstacle to the US ladies. I was like 'have you seen the scoring differentials' over the course of the season?

 

[Coco]

For what feels like several years now, Wakaba seems to be top 5 for Worlds and out of the top 30 for the GP series.

 

[olympic]

For what feels like several years now, Wakaba seems to be top 5 for Worlds and out of the top 30 for the GP series.

Her PB is 210 from 2018 Worlds and she is power girl skater. Clean performances would send her score skyrocketing from where it is now. Is it enough to be in the Bradie v. Young conversation?

 

[VGThuy]

I think with her skating skills, it should be, but I wonder how much of her inconsistency vs. Bradie’s steady climb will play into their scores.

 

[Coco]

But also, she's effectively Japan's #2 and necessary for them to earn a deserved 3 spots. I think she'll get a bump for that.