Are Evgenia & Alina the "Michelle & Tara" of 2018?

[Vash01]

I just noticed- this thread belongs in the Trash can and not in the GSD forum. This is pure speculation. There is no news, article, interview, etc. here.

 

[Tinami Amori]

Actually, you guys are comparing apples and oranges.
Zag/Med's situation is nothing like Kwan/Lipinsky (who skated on different rinks, different coaches, multiple coaches, by different training methods).
Zag/Med situation/rivalry is closer to Spielband/Zueva's teams V/M, D/W.... or (if you're old enough to remember) Jutta Muller's girls back in GDR times.

 

[BittyBug]

More so than any other discipline, it seems like lately the ladies crown usually goes to someone other than the odds on favorite.

94 - Baiul
98 - Lipinski
02 - Hughes
06- Arakawa
10 - Sotnikova

Even though all of the above had the credentials, they weren't the ones most talked about leading into the games. But in response to the OP's question, I do predict that Zagitova will win. She's got the momentum, consistency, and program most designed to squeeze every point out of the system.

 

[Sasha is DIVINE]

If this winds up mirroring Michelle/Tara I will finally be able to relate to all the broken-hearted MK fans after all these years.

 

[giselle23]

Just wondering about this National rivalry revival. The young and powerful vs. the younger and (even more) powerful. The ratified vs. the "up-and-coming". Would Alina winning over Evgenia be considered an Olympic upset? Just as the Tara win over Michelle is to many?

Yes to the extent they are both from the same country and Zagitova is younger and would be upsetting the favorite. But I think Michelle was viewed as much more of a lock for gold than Evgenia is right now. That may change of course if Med pulls off a win at Euros. But Zag has the momentum right now just like Michelle had the momentum after her
two iconic skates at Nationals.

 

[cbd1235]

Very similar scenario indeed! I never thought about relating the two seasons.

With that said, both Michelle and even Tara (in her refined and exciting 1998 programs) were more the artist-type skater, in my opinion, compared to Med and Zag.

 

[Dr.Siouxs]

I think Zagitova will win in Pyeongchang simply due to her choice of long program. Although she isn't as polished as Evgenia, Alina's program builds in energy and excitement a la Lipinski's Bezic program whereas Evgenia is taking Kwan's calm, subtle route. Unfortunately for Evgenia, I think this will make the difference.

Also interesting to note that both Kwan and Medvedeva are coming back from foot injuries

 

[meggonzo]

More so than any other discipline, it seems like lately the ladies crown usually goes to someone other than the odds on favorite.

94 - Baiul
98 - Lipinski
02 - Hughes
06- Arakawa
10 - Sotnikova

Even though all of the above had the credentials, they weren't the ones most talked about leading into the games. But in response to the OP's question, I do predict that Zagitova will win. She's got the momentum, consistency, and program most designed to squeeze every point out of the system.

10 was Yuna Kim, the odds on favorite.

 

[BittyBug]

10 was Yuna Kim, the odds on favorite.

Oops.

 

[coppertop1]

14 was Sotnikova.

 

[Vash01]

More so than any other discipline, it seems like lately the ladies crown usually goes to someone other than the odds on favorite.

94 - Baiul
98 - Lipinski
02 - Hughes
06- Arakawa
10 - Sotnikova

Even though all of the above had the credentials, they weren't the ones most talked about leading into the games. But in response to the OP's question, I do predict that Zagitova will win. She's got the momentum, consistency, and program most designed to squeeze every point out of the system.

Baiul was actually a co-favorite with Kerrigan. Baiul was the reigning world champion. Actually in 1994 there was no odds on favorite.

In 1992, even though Kristi Yamaguchi was the reigning world champion, Midori Ito was considered the odds on favorite for the OGM, so Kristi will fit into your list.

 

[Eladola]

Can a clean Kostner still win this or are the judges now too into the Russian face off idea that's been
pushed thus far?

 

[analia]

Evgenia needs to beat Zagitova on PCS of a total of 6 points to make up for the SV deficiency, not counting GOEs, which let's be honest Zagitova's jumps are better. So far I'm not convinced it's arithmetically possible for Evgenia to beat Zagitova if both skate clean.

 

[briancoogaert]

The biggest differences are that Medvedeva has dominated the sport for the last 2 seasons, and that they are both on the same side : technical elements.
Tara and Michelle shared titles, and were just opposite skaters (Tara on the technical side and Michelle on the artistic side).

 

[Vagabond]

Can a clean Kostner still win this or are the judges now too into the Russian face off idea that's been
pushed thus far?

Kostner is the new Baiul.

 

[snoopy]

Wow. I didn't realize it's that big of a difference.

Evgenia needs to beat Zagitova on PCS of a total of 6 points to make up for the SV deficiency, not counting GOEs, which let's be honest Zagitova's jumps are better. So far I'm not convinced it's arithmetically possible for Evgenia to beat Zagitova if both skate clean.

 

[UGG]

Michelle and Tara both had 1 world title, and leading up the Olympics, I don't actually think Michelle was the favorite to win nationals, however how she skated just catapulted her as the favorite for Oly gold over Tara. Michelle did not dominate the season prior to the Olympics either. She had a horrible nationals, losing to Tara and she was 4th in the short program at worlds which cost her the world title in 1997.

I actually think it is strange that the media always said Tara came from nowhere-she was the reigning world champion at the Olympics. Is it really that crazy that the reigning world champion won the Olympics? I guess it made a good story line???

 

[Cherub721]

Evgenia needs to beat Zagitova on PCS of a total of 6 points to make up for the SV deficiency, not counting GOEs, which let's be honest Zagitova's jumps are better. So far I'm not convinced it's arithmetically possible for Evgenia to beat Zagitova if both skate clean.

Very interesting, would you mind breaking down the numbers?

 

[alexikeguchi]

Evgenia needs to beat Zagitova on PCS of a total of 6 points to make up for the SV deficiency, not counting GOEs, which let's be honest Zagitova's jumps are better. So far I'm not convinced it's arithmetically possible for Evgenia to beat Zagitova if both skate clean.

And the actual difference from Europeans was about 5.5, so it looks like the judges are not going to separate their component scores anywhere near enough for Medvedeva to make up the lost ground. In her time on the international scene so far, Zagitova does seem to show pretty good nerve, so I vote yes for a Kwan/Lipinski like Olympic result.

 

[becca]

I think If both go clean Alina wins unless her PCS drop.

BUT if I am betting woman I bet on Med going clean. Alina can and does make mistakes especially in the short. Alina has never even been to worlds and will now be a favorite. Med is a skater who has handled being the favorite for years. I do hope Med back loads...

Tara was a reigning World champ she had some experience and everyone was Talking Kwan putting less pressure on her .

 

[Cherub721]

I wonder if Evgenia will change her program now... planning the 3flip-3toe in the second half would be a start. Is there any benefit at all to doing a 3-3-3 in the second half?

 

[blue_idealist]

I think they're both kind of like Tara, both haven't been on the senior scene very long (yeah, Evgenia has two world titles, but Tara had 1997, too) and both have a chance of winning the OGM. There's not really a "Michelle" in this scenario... that'd be like Tuktamysheva lol. Or maybe Miyahara (nothing to do with ethnicity, just her level of experience and skating style).

 

[giselle23]

I think they're both kind of like Tara, both haven't been on the senior scene very long (yeah, Evgenia has two world titles, but Tara had 1997, too) and both have a chance of winning the OGM. There's not really a "Michelle" in this scenario... that'd be like Tuktamysheva lol. Or maybe Miyahara (nothing to do with ethnicity, just her level of experience and skating style).

Michelle was only 17 to Tara's 15. She won Worlds in 1996; Tara won in 1997.
They were pretty equally matched in terms of experience. I think the difference was in the overall quality of Michelle's skating. Tara lacked artistry and, until the Olympics, depended on Michelle to make mistakes to win. The surprise at Nagano was that Tara beat a clean Michelle.

 

[tony]

I wonder if Evgenia will change her program now... planning the 3flip-3toe in the second half would be a start. Is there any benefit at all to doing a 3-3-3 in the second half?

She gains 0.40 points on her base score by switching to a 3+3+3.

 

[DreamSkates]

She gains 0.40 points on her base score by switching to a 3+3+3.

Wow, that certainly isn't worth the risk. Seems like it would be worth more given it would be difficult?

 

[tony]

Wow, that certainly isn't worth the risk. Seems like it would be worth more given it would be difficult?

She'd have to ditch the 3F+3T and do a 3+2 because she'd be doing two 3T in a 3+3+3. So it's really just a redistribution of the same points, and definitely not worth such a risk.

 

[DreamSkates]

I think If both go clean Alina wins unless her PCS drop.

BUT if I am betting woman I bet on Med going clean. Alina can and does make mistakes especially in the short. Alina has never even been to worlds and will now be a favorite. Med is a skater who has handled being the favorite for years. I do hope Med back loads...

Tara was a reigning World champ she had some experience and everyone was Talking Kwan putting less pressure on her .

Well just take a look at the results from Euros on Ice Network (I don't think you have to be a member to access the event page and Results). Looks like the favor has gone to Zag, although Med didn't skate a clean program (which I have yet to watch).
Upsets can be fun to watch but with Med's dominance, I hope she can be 100% at the Olympics, and her Worlds experience will help her with all the pressure at such a significant and large event.

 

[berthesghost]

Two years older, Kwan had two full years more experience on the international senior curcuit than Lipinski did. It wasn’t just that she won 96 worlds, but that she beat an amazing Chen lu to do so and capped off an amazing season she absolutely dominated. Kwan became the favorite for gold in Nagano after 96 worlds, just like Med did after winning 16 worlds after a season she dominated. Kwan continued to dominate at the begining of the 96-97 season and when she won Lalique and Tara took bronze, no one was calling them “rivals”. Alina is getting a later start than Tara did, but I do see the similarities.

 

[firstflight]

Michelle was only 17 to Tara's 15. She won Worlds in 1996; Tara won in 1997.
They were pretty equally matched in terms of experience. I think the difference was in the overall quality of Michelle's skating. Tara lacked artistry and, until the Olympics, depended on Michelle to make mistakes to win. The surprise at Nagano was that Tara beat a clean Michelle.

Yes, even during the Games, there was reason to believe Michelle would win handily if clean because the short program scores weren't closer. Michelle had returned to the triple toe in the short as well, so Tara in second with some distance even though she skated a harder short program continued that idea.

 

[Cherub721]

She'd have to ditch the 3F+3T and do a 3+2 because she'd be doing two 3T in a 3+3+3. So it's really just a redistribution of the same points, and definitely not worth such a risk.

Shame that she didn't work on 3loop combos or half-loop-3flip combos instead of 3-3-3 with the toeloop.