U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[Frida80]

Junior world candidates by international score

44 172.62 Emmy MA USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2017 08.09.2017
59 161.42 Kaitlyn NGUYEN USA ISU JGP Brisbane 2017 26.08.2017
60 161.23 Ashley LIN USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2017 08.09.2017
65 159.28 Starr ANDREWS USA ISU JGP Cup of Austria 2017 02.09.2017
78 152.41 Hanna HARRELL USA ISU JGP Egna Neumarkt 2017 14.10.2017
81 150.95 Ting CUI USA ISU JGP Brisbane 2017 26.08.2017
85 149.14 Tessa HONG USA ISU JGP Minsk Arena Cup 2017 22.09.2017
117 134.10 Angelina HUANG USA ISU JGP Cup of Austria 2017 02.09.2017
*McIsaac and Wessenberg, not on SB list this season

Regardless of who is selected, it will be a fight to get into the top three nations. Russia and Japan are formidable and Korea's top two juniors Eunsoo Lim and Young You each have a higher SB than Ma.

I'm bummed that USFS didn't assign Lin to a second international competition. All the rest of the ladies in the top five above got two assignments. Lin didn't do great at Sectionals, but her international performance was strong. It would be nice to have more data points to see which was the anomaly.

i feel bummed for Ashley as well. But unlike last year, it seems they didn’t want to do a fall junior B competition. Very unfortunate.

Often US ladies peak later in the season. Reports are that Tessa’s jumps were looking much stronger than in the JGP. Starr managed her PB scores with no flip or lutz, which I hope she includes back in soon. I do wonder if Hannah’s component score will hold internationally. If the girls can keep this up, hopefully they can managed to get three spots back in JW. Beating Eunsoo and Young may be too big of a hurdle right now. So those 14 slots at the JGP May have to wait.

 

[feraina]

i feel bummed for Ashley as well. But unlike last year, it seems they didn’t want to do a fall junior B competition. Very unfortunate.

Often US ladies peak later in the season. Reports are that Tessa’s jumps were looking much stronger than in the JGP. Starr managed her PB scores with no flip or lutz, which I hope she includes back in soon. I do wonder if Hannah’s component score will hold internationally. If the girls can keep this up, hopefully they can managed to get three spots back in JW. Beating Eunsoo and Young may be too big of a hurdle right now. So those 14 slots at the JGP May have to wait.

I hope they can get 3 spots back too, but it seems even harder than getting the full JGP allotment. 3 Russians, 3 Japanese, 1 Korean -- that means U.S. ladies can place at best 8 & 9, and even that is questionable as they would have to fight off the other two Koreans. To place 6 & 7, they would probably have to both beat out all the Koreans as well as one Japanese girl, a very tall order... I think the chance of one of the American girls having an amazing competition and placing ahead of all the Koreans is a little more likely.

 

[Dobre]

For some scoring perspective:

Junior Ladies SB scores

197.91 Alena Kostornaia (RUS)
197.69 Alexandra Trusova (RUS)
196.68 Anastasia Tarakanova (RUS)
196.55 Daria Panenkova (RUS)
192.19 Sofia Samodurova (RUS)
186.34 Eunsoo Lim (KOR)
185.81 Rika Hikira (JPN)
183.00 Nana Araki (JPN)
181.98 Stanislava Konstantinova (RUS)
181.43 Anastasiia Guliakova (RUS)
181.04 Mako Yamashita (JPN)
177.70 Young You (KOR)
174.16 Riko Takino (JPN)
172.62 Emy Ma (USA)

Essentially, the top U.S. lady's score thus far this season is 25 points off the top Russian lady, 13 points off the top Japanese lady, and 14 points off the top Korean lady. There are 2 Korean junior ladies, 7 Russian junior ladies, and 4 Japanese junior ladies with SBs above the top U.S. lady's score.

Note: Japan, of course, has some higher-scoring options. Should they, for example, send Shiraiwa to Junior Worlds, her current SB is 193.18.

U.S. ladies who competed on the JGP this season: Ma, Nguyen, Lin, Andrews, Harrell, Cui, Hong, Huang.

 

[ChiquitaBanana]

This is not a mature and thoughtful response: "P.S. only I have the power to "f*ck me up", no one else. Especially not some "boy"".

Lovely for some young skaters to read.

We call that “empowerment” and that’s great.

 

[Frida80]

For some scoring perspective:

Junior Ladies SB scores

197.91 Alena Kostornaia (RUS)
197.69 Alexandra Trusova (RUS)
196.68 Anastasia Tarakanova (RUS)
196.55 Daria Panenkova (RUS)
192.19 Sofia Samodurova (RUS)
186.34 Eunsoo Lim (KOR)
185.81 Rika Hikira (JPN)
183.00 Nana Araki (JPN)
181.98 Stanislava Konstantinova (RUS)
181.43 Anastasiia Guliakova (RUS)
181.04 Mako Yamashita (JPN)
177.70 Young You (KOR)
174.16 Riko Takino (JPN)
172.62 Emy Ma (USA)

Essentially, the top U.S. lady's score thus far this season is 25 points off the top Russian lady, 13 points off the top Japanese lady, and 14 points off the top Korean lady. There are 2 Korean junior ladies, 7 Russian junior ladies, and 4 Japanese junior ladies with SBs above the top U.S. lady's score.

Note: Japan, of course, has some higher-scoring options. Should they, for example, send Shiraiwa to Junior Worlds, her current SB is 193.18.

U.S. ladies who competed on the JGP this season: Ma, Nguyen, Lin, Andrews, Harrell, Cui, Hong, Huang.

It’s better to take the top 3 Russian, 3 Japanese, and 2 Korean. Then compare the score to the bottom of these scores.

197.91 Alena Kostornaia (RUS)
197.69 Alexandra Trusova (RUS)
196.68 Anastasia Tarakanova (RUS)
186.34 Eunsoo Lim (KOR)
185.81 Rika Kikira (JPN)
183.00 Nana Araki (JPN)
181.04 Mako Yamashita (JPN)
177.70 Young You (KOR)
172.62 Emmy Ma (USA)

Emmy’s score is less than 11 points away from Nana’s and 9 away from Mako’s.

While you can’t compare domestic score to international, it’s worth comparing Starr, Hanna, and Tessa’s scores here. If you take away two points from Starr and Tessa scores, they score 184 and 180. Hanna’s score would remain the same at 189.

Now Hanna would outscore everyone but the Russians. Starr would outscore Nana, Mako, and Young. Her score will increase when she goes to a seven triple program again. So while it’s difficult to predict how much the JW competitors will improve by JW and how US ladies will perform at JW, I still see a glimmer of hope.

 

[Sylvia]

Name spelling nitpicks: Rika Kihira and Hanna (no -h) Harrell.

BTW, I've posted links to 2 Ashley Wagner pre-Skate America articles in her cheer thread: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...f-tonights-lecture.101175/page-5#post-5191505

 

[AxelAnnie]

We call that “empowerment” and that’s great.

Now that interpretation makes me sad.

 

[Frida80]

Name spelling nitpicks: Rika Kihira and Hanna (no -h) Harrell.

BTW, I've posted links to 2 Ashley Wagner pre-Skate America articles in her cheer thread: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...f-tonights-lecture.101175/page-5#post-5191505

Fixed it. Typing to fast, I guess. I need to get used to Hanna’s spelling. I may be typing her name a lot more.

 

[Marco]

I absolutely adore Emmy Ma's skating and would love to see more of her. But a 5 triple free skate won't get her far.

 

[ChiquitaBanana]

Now that interpretation makes me sad.

Your posts in the Gracie Gold thread had the same effect on me. Empathy, don't you have some? When you'll be totally drained and down, I won't be the one throwing rocks like you do.

 

[AxelAnnie]

Your posts in the Gracie Gold thread had the same effect on me. Empathy, don't you have some? When you'll be totally drained and down, I won't be the one throwing rocks like you do.

My reasoned POV has no causal relationship to empathy. As I have said repeatedly Gracie has my sympathy. She is in a dark place
..one I have visited myself. And I do not think
It is in any way in her best interest to engage in a Twitter fest with some jerk.

 

[Carolla5501]

My reasoned POV has no causal relationship to empathy. As I have said repeatedly Gracie has my sympathy. She is in a dark place
..one I have visited myself. And I do not think
It is in any way in her best interest to engage in a Twitter fest with some jerk.

And when you were there would you have appreciated some nameless person on an internet message board pretending that they were an expert on your condition?

Apparently you possess that rare internet condition "medical expert ability to diagnose with no real knowledge". It's really sad that people with this great skill can't put it do use

 

[VGThuy]

AxelAnnie, I think we understand where you're coming from initially even if we all don't agree with it. However, your constant repeating of your unchanging position and making little comments reads as snide. Plus, you sort of come off as someone who is exploiting this to continue your penchant for putting Gracie down. I'm sure you don't see it that way, but that's how you're coming across to some.

 

[AxelAnnie]

I never said Gracie needed to appreciate it. That would be dumb. IMO...by responding the way she did she dropped herself to his level.

And thank you ever so much for applying YOUR expert ability to diagnose with no knowledge to me. Makes such a difference in my day.

 

[Coco]

Anyone know why Karen Chen is doing Golden Spin vs Shanghai Open? Is flying to the Balkans from LAX that much easier than flying to Shanghai?

 

[Frida80]

Anyone know why Karen Chen is doing Golden Spin vs Shanghai Open? Is flying to the Balkans from LAX that much easier than flying to Shanghai?

Are you talking about that Shanghai Trophy? Isn’t that this weekend?

If it’s a different competition, I’d say it’s the difference between getting points and not getting points.

 

[Coco]

I don't know why I thought it was the same weekend as GS. Especially when I complained earlier about it being this weekend!

Thanks

 

[Frida80]

I don't know why I thought it was the same weekend as GS. Especially when I complained earlier about it being this weekend!

Thanks

It happens to all of us.

 

[Dobre]

Now Hanna would outscore everyone but the Russians. Starr would outscore Nana, Mako, and Young.

I will be happy just to see Hanna skate more clean programs. Developing some consistency on landing her jumps in competition would be a great achievement for her.

I enjoy Starr very much. Think she has something special in her performance ability that makes her stand out from the crowd. But, for now, I think it's better to look at what she has actually done in competition rather than raise expectations to what we hope she can do.

If she or anyone else breaks through, I plan to appreciate it for the huge achievement that it would really be.

 

[Vagabond]

Anyone know why Karen Chen is doing Golden Spin vs Shanghai Open? Is flying to the Balkans from LAX that much easier than flying to Shanghai?

I know it seems to people who don't live on the West Coast that major cities in East Asia must be closer to California than major cities in Europe are, but they actually aren't.

Flying time from Los Angeles to Zagreb: 12 hours, 59 minutes. https://www.travelmath.com/flying-time/from/Los+Angeles,+CA/to/Zagreb,+Croatia

Flying time from Los Angeles to Shanghai: 13 hours, 31 minutes: https://www.travelmath.com/flying-time/from/Los+Angeles,+CA/to/Shanghai,+China

 

[Carolla5501]

Never mind

 

[Xela M]

I know it seems to people who don't live on the West Coast that major cities in East Asia must be closer to California than major cities in Europe are, but they actually aren't.

Flying time from Los Angeles to Zagreb: 12 hours, 59 minutes. https://www.travelmath.com/flying-time/from/Los+Angeles,+CA/to/Zagreb,+Croatia

Flying time from Los Angeles to Shanghai: 13 hours, 31 minutes: https://www.travelmath.com/flying-time/from/Los+Angeles,+CA/to/Shanghai,+China

So... only 32 minutes further? Hardly a great deal on a 13-hour flight

 

[Willin]

@Xela M The time difference probably plays a role as well. As strange as it sounds, it's a bit easier to only go 9 hours ahead than 16.

 

[Frida80]

I will be happy just to see Hanna skate more clean programs. Developing some consistency on landing her jumps in competition would be a great achievement for her.

I enjoy Starr very much. Think she has something special in her performance ability that makes her stand out from the crowd. But, for now, I think it's better to look at what she has actually done in competition rather than raise expectations to what we hope she can do.

If she or anyone else breaks through, I plan to appreciate it for the huge achievement that it would really be.

I’m a bit different. Figure skating is one of the hardest to predict sports, because it’s so mental. It’s hard to say if a athlete can duplicate a good performance, will improve or regress during the season. But after monitoring a lot of skaters, I find that just understanding the backgrounds of each skater, how they develop over the season, and what could affect their performance each competition is a good way of judging how a skater will perform.

I guessed Emmy would perform well because she was using the same long program as last year, so it would be far more consistent that someone with new program. She also had a much more basic layout. She had strong components and spins, which would gain a lot of points. And she would be under the least pressure to perform. She was US junior Pewter medalist last year. Kaitlyn, Starr, and Ashley were 1st, 2nd, and 3rd respectively. She also wasn’t expecting a JGP slot, but really wanted one. So she went into her JGP event with better results. Her second JGP, wasn’t as good because she now had to deal with pressure of performing again.

Often skaters peak late. Not too surprising, since the qualifying system ask that skaters peak in January for nationals. I’ve seen so many kids with low scores that suddenly peak at regionals and sectionals. So it’s not a suprise that some US juniors are peaking later, rather than on the JGP. I doubt anyone could have predicted Vincent’s suprise win from his weaker performances on the JGP earlier last season.

Hanna has a lot of question marks for me still. She’s rising rapidly, indicating she’s a quick learner. She wasn’t bad at all internationally. While Audrey and Angelina crumpled, she held her own. The question now is consistency and will those components hold internationally. I’ll be watching her very closely at nationals. She’ll be under a lot of pressure to perform. However, if she does win, within 5 points of her sectional score, her score should hold steady for JW.

I also have question about Starr. She was attempting a 3A in her FS, which lead to errors on her 3F+3T. And her layout for her Junior program was not well planned. Starr will often pop her flip or lutz if they are place next to each other. With her senior layout, they were separated. Her junior layout, they were together and she popped her flip. She also botched her loop at the end. The last jump should be an easier jump, since you mentally exhausted and are relying on muscle memory. With more experience with her junior layout, they could’ve rearranged things to avoid so many major errors.

Last weekend, Starr couldn’t compete with her flip or Lutz due to injury and also took out her 3A. Instead she competed with jumps that were very consistent. She had no pops, underrotations, or falls and also a PB score of 120. If she uses a similar layout at JWs, based on the consistency of the jumps included in her program I’m more optimistic that she can duplicate or even improve this result. Just exchanging the 2Lo with a 3F will result in a 4 point increase. It’s four months until JW. So I will be watching Starr closely to see if regains her lutz and flip with some consistency by nationals, keeps this more optimal layout rather than a more ambitious one from before, and also gets a total score with in 5 points of her sectional score.

Of course I’m watching all the other skaters from other countries too. Naturally, the JGPF will tell me if Rika’s 3A is more consistent now. Also nationals and Junior nationals for both Japan, Russia, and Korea will show if any skaters have improved and how they’ll perform at JW.

The question will not be how far US ladies are from the top, but how far they are from 6th and 7th place. We’ll know a lot more by January.

 

[Coco]

I'm afraid US callers are too lenient and there's no way of telling if these base values would have been earned internationally.

 

[Frida80]

I'm afraid US callers are too lenient and there's no way of telling if these base values would have been earned internationally.

It’s very true. Which is why I always look for videos and look very closely at each skater’s jumps for myself. I normally get it right if the tech controllers are normal. When it’s Shin Amano, forget it. Everyone is going down.

There are other things can affect scores versus internationally. Sometimes skaters components scores are inflated compared to international. Thought, I’ve also found that on the junior level PCS is often higher internationally for US ladies. Whether skaters get their levels of not. With Starr, this year her 3S, 2A, 3Lo, and 3T combo have been consistent so I feel like I can trust those scores. I’m not certain about the GoE for the 3S+2T combo though...

As for Hannah, she’s underotated her combos internationally. In the JGP, she fell on her triple triple combos in the FS but landed her 3F+3T combo in the short. It’s possible with a lot of practice, you can correct combinations over the course of a season. However, I need to see videos to be sure.

 

[NAOTMAA]

I'm afraid US callers are too lenient and there's no way of telling if these base values would have been earned internationally.

What are the tech. callers at other national championships like? Are they as lax and lenient as the US callers appear to be?

Obviously all national championships inflate their marks (especially PCS marks) but reading the posts year after year I get the impression its worse at US nationals. That even taking into account the inflation, international skaters are more likely to score closer in international competition with what they get at their nationals (even if still way off) then US skaters do.

 

[Frida80]

What are the tech. callers at other national championships like? Are they as lax and lenient as the US callers appear to be?

Obviously all national championships inflate their marks (especially PCS marks) but reading the posts year after year I get the impression its worse at US nationals. That even taking into account the inflation, international skaters are more likely to score closer in international competition with what they get at their nationals (even if still way off) then US skaters do.

I don't know. Since all nationals inflate scores, it's hard to say. I know that with under rotations it was obvious last year. But it was on the triple triple combos that were questionable. Skating protocol agreed with most of the calls aside from a few jumps. Except for Ashley's jumps. He thought most of them at nationals were underrotated.

 

[shuilee]

Karen Chen has dumped BOTH her programs. Going back to last year's SP and LP.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

^^^^^ Say what now?