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Who has the best chance of beating Medvedeva to win Worlds in 2017

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Jan 22, 2017.

Who has the best chance of beating Medvedeva to win worlds in 2017?

This poll will close on Apr 22, 2017 at 7:57 AM.
  1. Ashley Wagner

    9 vote(s)
    4.6%
  2. Karen Chen

    4 vote(s)
    2.1%
  3. Carolina Kostner

    8 vote(s)
    4.1%
  4. Satoko Miyahara

    18 vote(s)
    9.2%
  5. Kaetlyn Osmond

    66 vote(s)
    33.8%
  6. Anna Pogorilaya

    81 vote(s)
    41.5%
  7. #3 US lady on World team

    1 vote(s)
    0.5%
  8. Other

    8 vote(s)
    4.1%
  1. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    1997 Worlds with Lipinski and Kwan in Lausanne and 2004 Worlds with Cohen and Kwan in Dortmund. Don't forget that the 1991 Yamaguchi/Harding/Kerrigan sweep happened in Munich. There was also Thomas and Chin in 1986 Geneva. Probably the first time a non-white American won medals for the U.S. in ladies and here there were two.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2017
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  2. jersey1302

    jersey1302 Active Member

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    IF Medvedeva does't win ( and that is a slim chance) it means she has faltered. If she falters almost any one of those ladies mentioned could take it on any day. I think Kaetlyn could potentially be the closest to her in the standings after the SP. She had 81pts in the SP at nationals. Obviously I know that is national scoring however her competition she did go head to head with her, Kaetlyn was only with in 2 points from Medvedeva after the SP. Its going to depend on who can skate clean in the FS. Who has that consistency?
     
  3. Meoima

    Meoima Well-Known Member

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    I do think Med is quite slow during step sequence but her transitions in and out the jumps are all acceptable. Let's say her spread eagle is definitely not pretty but still better than Nathan.
    One more thing is that, if other ladies are that much superior in skating skills, why don't they add more transitions to win over Med. can they, or they can't.
     
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  4. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. The thing is Kaetlyn has the potential to challenge Evgenia in PCS but it's too late this season. The reason Evgenia's PCS have skyrocketed (along with pretty much all of her other scores) is because of her amazing consistency. Consistency is why she's breaking World records every other time she skates. There are deficiencies in her skating but she lands those damn jumps so the judges can overlook them.

    If Kaetlyn had been consistently nailing both her SP & FS all season long, her scores would be directly competitive (like tit for tat) with Evgenia's and she'd have a chance of beating her. Out of everyone I think Katelyn is the person best equipped to challenge Evgenia: she can earn equal GOE on her jumps based on amplitude, coverage and speed alone; she's fast as hell; her spins are just as good as Med's (if not better); her programs are wonderful; and she's a strong performer. Sadly Kaetlyn's weakness is Evgenia's strength and that's what makes the difference.

    Zagitova got away with about two or three URs at nationals this year. Her content is impressive but if the tech callers are doing their jobs she's not going to get credit for all of those jumps next year.

    I doubt if she'll be growing taller but it's likely she'll fill out in the next year or so. It may be subtle but it may not be. Given how mentally tough she is I think the only thing that can derail Evgenia is going to be puberty.

    I respect the hell out of Evgenia. I think I'd be a bigger fan of hers if she got away from Averbukh (his choreography is so corny and cheesy to me). I like Evgenia though. I like that even though she's breaking records she's not satisfied and feels she can do better; I love her competitive focus and nerves; and I like that even though her programs are cheesy corn, she still performs. I don't find her to be boring but I don't get into her programs either.

    Even with mistakes she'd still manage the win. She'd have to implode majorly and I don't see that happening.

    Silver and bronze will come down to Satoko, Anna and Kaetlyn. If Kaetlyn is clean, silver is hers; more likely she'll do well in the SP and then falter somewhat in the FS and slip to 3rd or off of the podium. If Satoko can rotate everything I'd put her in 2nd. Everyone keeps saying Anna for silver but don't forget that Anna was clean at the Final and Satoko still outscored her...and that was with an under-rotated triple. Now Satoko's injury could be a deciding factor but if she's able to deliver, I think she'll be 2nd this year.

    2nd-10th place is going to be fun to watch!
     
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  5. MAXSwagg

    MAXSwagg Well-Known Member

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    The only way someone is going to beat Medvedeva is if they find a way to distract her - perhaps put Yuzu along the boards - and that probably wouldn't even work. No one is going to beat her unless she falls five times.
     
  6. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Someone can steal the Luna she takes to competitions (the little stuffed black cat). That might distract her enough to make her miss a jump or two:EVILLE:

    We'll have to brainstorm how to make her miss an additional two or three...
     
  7. Meoima

    Meoima Well-Known Member

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    Well if they became a couple then the rest are toast lol...
     
  8. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    I meant US and Canada on the podium at the same time. Although there have been plenty of times both US and Russia have more than one medalist at one time, two countries from on continent is rarer and even then, Russia and Italy, Russia and Germany, Japan and Korea, etc seems to happen more often than US and Canada.

    Skating is weird because it is a meritocracy, but it's also a club where ideally profits are divided by the top members. Assuming all skate well, I feel the results are sometimes pre-gamed to end up like Lillehammer: each continent gets one of the 3 medals.
     
  9. slipchuk

    slipchuk Active Member

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    Totally agreed. The judges love consistent skaters. Years past sometimes people complained the dominant skaters like Yu Na Kim, Michelle Kwan, Plushenko were overscored but if they were it is because they were only great and mostly complete skaters, but they were so consistent. When you are consistently skating clean programs, winning or medaling, you gain the judges respect and they start bloating your scores upwards, to the point they are more on the inflated side than the conservative side, but in a way even that is earned since it didnt happen overnight. Medevedeva today is doing the same. As a Canadian I can comfortably tell you Osmond has never been a consistent skater. I am not sure if I have ever seen a completely clean long program from her in her career, even back in 2013 season when she first broke out and wasnt attempting great technical difficulty on par with the best yet, like she is today. She has many clean shorts, but never a totally clean long with all she has planned. She would need to do it, and more than once, to get the kind of respect from the judges Medvedeva has. Even if she delivers fully at worlds this year she will probably have to settle for a silver unless Medvedeva makes a mistake or two, since it is too late to get the kind of reputation Medvedeva has gotten. She needs more a whole season of consistent competitions to gain that. However program wise, element wise, skating skills wise (she is ahead of Medvedeva in skating skills area in fact) she has what it takes for sure.

    I have no idea why Averbuhk is so in demand as a choreographer. I dont know if you follow ice dancing much or not, but this is someone whose biggest weakness during his time as an ice dance regular medal contender at the world level (with his wife and partner Irina Lobacheva) was unremarkable choreography that lacked content, and lacked any kind of identity for the team, and rarely capatilized on their strengths. It is the main reason they were stuck 3rd-5th in the world for years before being pushed up to silver in Salt Lake City by politics and 2 top teams falling in the free dance, and then by retirements by alot of teams at the 2002 and 2003 worlds. Even their program they won Olympic silver and their only world title with was a cheesy and poor taste September 11th tribute. Atleast the version of a tribute of that he choreographed for Medvedeva is a better work than his 2002 program as a dancer was, but that isnt saying much.
     
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  10. slipchuk

    slipchuk Active Member

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    I just meant I would guess ice dance and pairs are still the most popular events in Russia and the most coveted golds. I am sure Russians arent stupid and know they are most dominant in ladies today.

    It wouldnt surprise me at all if Tarasova & Morozov can win the pairs gold next year. If they skate cleanly Stolbova & Klimov can do but it seems they just dont have the consistency needed. They have been dissapointing since their 2014 breakouts. I think the pairs gold next year is wide open to atleast 4 teams. Duhamel & Radford have already peaked, and are on decline if anything, but are still major contenders, but easily beatable. They rarely hit all their big tricks cleanly, and many teams can beat their GOE and PCS. Sui & Han are major contenders and if healthy and skating cleanly probably will take it. Tarasova & Morozov are building momentum, have won the GPF and Europeans, the two biggest events of the season so far, and have a good shot to win worlds which would really set them up next year. He Man Zhang and his new partner are horrible to watch but the judges are loving them and will be medal contenders next year unfortunately. Savchenko & Massot are loved by the judges, and are winning medals despite struggling badly with consistency, not ever doing clean programs, and not yet unveiling the throw triple axel they talk about, heck doing a mere throw double axel in their LP right now which is totally 90s They are major contenders for the Olympic Gold next year, particularly if they do all the big tricks they are talking about doing but so far not including. It will be open and Tarasova & Morozov will be one of a handful of teams who can win gold, and even Stolbova & Klimov if they can skate cleanly which is rare for them.
     
  11. honey

    honey Well-Known Member

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    I think her only clean long program to date was at the Challenge event in December 2012. She was pretty close at nationals 2014, but had two minor turn outs. But like you said, in those days she was only going for 6 triples to begin with.

    I agree with you that her lack of consistency this season will keep her maxing out with silver at worlds if she's clean there. Maybe if she totally nails it at 4CC the tide could start to shift slightly, but i think Medvedeva will control her own destiny (fun to be able to say that again :p).
     
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  12. slipchuk

    slipchuk Active Member

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    It is interesting Satoko has so little votes, and far less than both Pogorilaya and Osmond, despite being the consistent 2nd placer to Medvedeva for the last 2 seasons. It makes sense though, Satoko definitely cant beat Medvedeva without mistakes, and Medvedeva rarely makes them. Pogorilaya and Osmond both have a bit more potential to, depending on the mood of the judges that day, and how much not being perceived Russian #1 hurts Anna.
     
  13. screech

    screech Well-Known Member

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    Kind of makes me think of Jeff Buttle - IIRC he had just 2 clean long programs once he was a 'top' skater - my favourite ever skate of his at the 2005 Canadians (he had a small turn out on one jump, but stayed on one foot) and 2008 Worlds. Usually did well in the SP (the odd time he didn't, his LP usually saved him - he would have won silver in Torino if he hadn't messed up in his SP).
    But unlike Jeff, Kaetlyn keeps up technically with the rest of the world. If not this year, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the next quad she has a world title (if she continues as she has been).

    But also, for some reason I wouldn't be surprised if at Worlds she has a so-so SP (not perfect but still top 6 to get to the final flight) and her best LP of the year, with the LP getting her on the podium.
     
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  14. slipchuk

    slipchuk Active Member

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    I will be so bummed if Kaetlyn doesnt get a medal this year. I know it wont be easy since Evgenia, Anna, Satoko are probably the expected trio, but I still really want it so much for her. I know it wont be gold this year, or atleast I would never dare to hope, but I really would love a silver or bronze.

    Satoko is a quandrum for me since I love her passion and overall programs much more than Evgenia, so in a way I would love to see her winning, but her jump quality is awful compared to Evgenia, Anna, Kaetlyn, and if anything her scores especialy on jumps is being way too generous for their standard.

    I currently prefer Anna to Evgenia, but Evgenia is definitely the Russian fed. favorite. I kind of feel sorry for Anna since she found all her consistency she needs finally at long last, but it seems 3rd or 4th in the world is as far as the judges will ever let her go. I know there are weaknesses in her skating that probably justify that but still.
     
  15. screech

    screech Well-Known Member

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    I saw Satoko live at Skate Canada this year, and I found that in person her jumps, while still tiny, don't look nearly as small as they do on TV.
    While I do think there is something missing from Evgenia, personally I still enjoy her - I watched her LP from last year's worlds a few times, whereas I only watched Anna once. Of the current crop of top ladies, I find Katelyn the most exciting, and hope she can pull together 2 skates, but I'm OK with Evgenia staying tops too. And if she wins, she'll be the first lady to win back-to-back World titles since Kwan in 2000 and 2001!
     
  16. douglasottawa

    douglasottawa Banned Member

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    Ashley Wagner. If she skates cleanly it will be impossible for Medvedeva to win. The others probably need Medvedeva to make mistakes.
     
  17. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    :O
    Helsinki is very near st Peter berg I believe. In '99 Russia swept the golds and even picked up a surprise medal with soldotova. When I went to euros in malmo the audience had a huge Russian contingency which I expect Helsinki will too.

    Ashley's winning over the Boston crowd was a big push that probably got her silver instead of bronze, but didn't seem to get her a lot after a "clean" sp that placed her behind one of med's worst. If she couldn't beat med in Boston she has no chance in Helsinki.

    And what exactly does a "clean" Ashley mean? No missed points on spins, no underrotations, no edge calls? Love her, but that seems a bit too much to expect. Didn't a "clean" Ashley just lose to Karen?
     
  18. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    If judges correctly Ashley shouldn't beat some of those top girls even clean especially if they are also clean. There are to many holes in her skating but she seems to mesmerize the judges with her shimmies and head bobs but if they look at what's going on with the blade they will see substandard skating skills and spins.
     
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  19. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    ^ I don't agreed re: judges view of Ashley. This is why she ended up 4th after the sp despite the audience SO and the euro sport guys carping she wuz robbed. They seemed to be the only ones not under her shimmie spell. Had they left her off the podium after the LP the audience probably would have burned TD garden to the ground :p which is why I fear the same skate in Helsinki will place her 4th or 5th easily.
     
  20. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    To be honest considering that Canadian women have won all of two medals at Worlds in over 40 years it's not surprising there haven't been US and Canadian women on the podium at the same time.
     
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  21. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    ^exactly! Which brings us full circle to my original point: Ashley and Katelyn both on the podium at a worlds in Europe? I hardly think so!
     
  22. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I loves me some Ashley Wagner but I don't see her placing higher than 5th this year. If she delivers she may have a shot at 4th but the top 4 coming in (Evgenia, Satoko, Anna, Katelyn) are going to be tough to knock off.

    The wildcard out of that group is Katelyn. She can soar or she can implode. I think if she nails her SP that will have her well-positioned to hang on to a top 4 spot. But if she can't get past the SP cleanly I think Ashley could get 4th this year.

    The bigger question for the US women is who out of Karen and Mariah is going to deliver enough to keep that 3rd spot. Both are newbies to the World stage. Karen is amazing but she is not going to get credit for her 3-3s internationally if she lands them the way she did at nationals. Both of those combos were clearly under-rotated and the international judges aren't going to give her any wiggle room. Mariah is untested but she's got the goods. Her programs and jumps are strong enough to catch the judges' attention if she does well. I could see her placing well here if she can deliver.

    We just need Ashley to be Ashley and give a solid top 5 performance and then have either Karen or Mariah deliver well enough to place 8th or better. It's doable...but they are going to have to deliver.
     
  23. slipchuk

    slipchuk Active Member

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    I think Medvedeva is out of reach. Osmond will beat everyone but Medvedeva if she does everything, but she never does, so that leaves her vurnerable. Her LP at the GPF had a couple pops but was better than her average, still dropped her from 2nd to 4th.

    However I think Satoko is vurnerable. She wins so many medals only since she always skates clean, any of the top skaters have a chance to beat her if she also skates clean. Worlds last year the other girls skated well for once, and she dropped to 5th, that would happen more often if the other skates delivered. At most even if worlds werent in the U.S she is still 4th, Anna isnt an American and beat her, and Wagner would have beaten her for bronze at worst even outside the U.S. I think not only Ashley, but Anna, Karen, Kaitlyn for sure, and maybe 1 or 2 others can beat her if they skate well. Maybe even Maria S. with a perfect outing.

    The only reason she is so dominant in 2nd is others keep effing up, it isnt because her scores and technical ability or PCS are out of reach of others like Medvedeva. I like her skating and in fact prefer her passion she skates with and programs to Medvedeva's current style and programs, but just being honest. And that is even with the really bloated and inflated GOE on her tiny baby jumps, which is along the same lines of Medvedeva example you gave, she is super consistent, so the judges start loving her, and giving her bloated points and ignoring her weaknesses like they dont exist. Maybe if Anna keeps her newfound consistency she will start getting more of that love too, but I am still waiting.
     
  24. MAXSwagg

    MAXSwagg Well-Known Member

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    If everyone skates clean, I wouldn't put Ashley in top 5 (or rather she shouldn't be in top 5). Medvedeva, Osmond, Miyahara, Chen, Pogo are all superior. And then there is Kostner, who when clean should also be ahead of Ashley.
     
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  25. slipchuk

    slipchuk Active Member

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    I agree in general, but my only point is I think Miyahara is easily beatable by 5 or 6 people if they skate perfectly, basically all those you just mentioned, despite being the one who regularly is 2nd to Medvedeva. Tiny jumps, same content as others and less than Medvedeva atleast can do, and her PCS arent even huge. If I were judge I would bump her PCS up a bit, but while dropping her GOE a ton, and her overall score would still be lower.

    Kostner doesnt have great technical content, probably even less than Wagner and much less than many others now have, and is 30 now. The judges are probably annoyed she is coming back to amateur skating again at that age, and wont give her any gifts, she will have to work for every mark she gets now. We know everyone with masks her skating skills component atleast would be way above Medvedeva for instance, Medvedeva's biggest weakness is she is slow, but we know that wont ever happen unless Kostner is doing triple lutz-triple toe and triple flip-triple toe and 2 lutzes in her programs, content she never did all at once even at her peak.
     
  26. douglasottawa

    douglasottawa Banned Member

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    U.S Nationals is corrupt, they have been trying to put Ashley out for years. They want someone like Gracie or Karen to take over from her so of course even clean Ashley loses there unless Gracie, Karen, and Mirai all mess up badly enough. Ashley is the complete opposite of say Michelle Kwan who was so worshipped at Nationals she could go on the ice, just make a huge smelly fart, skate off, and get 8 or more perfect 6.0s for presentation. Or Sasha Cohen who is given the Nationals gold every year from 2003 onwards (plus 2000) had she simply stayed on her feet despite all the weakness in her skating compared to people like Kwan and Hughes, including even 2010 when her skating was now outdated technically and she was semi retired. Unlike those girls and other past U.S stars, Wagner is the undesired champion, who the USFSA wishes would go away. Chen beating Wagner at Nationals this year with a lower base value, small and poorly done jumps, underrotated 3-3s which should have been downgraded but werent, and junior presentation, was completely wrong and would never happen outside U.S Natonals by a long shot. The same skates by both at worlds, Wagner comes 15 points higher and can barely see overrated Chen form her rear view mirror.

    International judges are different, they love Ashley, and want her to put it all together and win. In the long of worlds last year Ashley and Gracie were the only ones to mess up and make major mistakes on jumps, while everyone else in the final flight was perfect, and Ashley still took silver with highest PCS with all those mistakes. International judges love her, they arent like U.S Nationals judges who want the old bag to retire already, and either someone new to take over or one of Kwan, Kerrigan, Harding, Lipinski, or Cohen to come out of retirement and replace her as U.S top dog.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2017
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  27. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Gah! I totally forgot about Carolina! With the way she skated at Euros she's going to be a top 5 threat too if she can deliver somewhere along those lines.

    Gotta disagree with you. When we talk about anyone getting close to Evgenia, Satoko is the only skater to come within 10 points of her score this season. I think you underestimate Satoko. At her best Satoko's PCS are very close to Kaetlyn's and in line if not higher than Anna's...as they should be. You're focusing on Satoko's jumps but her lack of height is the only deficiency in her skating. Even with her small jumps she can hit 70+ in TES when she's clean. It's clear the judges have moved beyond her lack of height, as they should especially when she does everything else very well. Her skating skills, transitions, spins, programs and performance are all excellent and the judges reward her for that. She's got the second highest total score of the season behind Evgenia...higher than Anna, Kaetlyn, Carolina, Maria, Ashley, Wakaba, Gabrielle, Mariah, Mai and Karen. Essentially, with the exception Evgenia, Satoko's best is better than everyone else's best this season.

    When Satoko makes mistakes she gets hammered for it which allows others to get ahead of her like what happened at Worlds last year. But when she's clean she is not easy to beat. A clean Kaetlyn could do it. A clean Anna would be really close (she has the 3rd highest score of the season about 2 points behind Satoko). When is the last time Ashley got a 70+ in TES at a competition? Maria is prone to under-rotations and will not earn the PCS...Gabrielle often makes mistakes and won't earn the PCS...and you could pretty much say the same for everyone else. The likelihood of these error prone skaters finally skating 100% cleanly at Worlds is rather low.

    Satoko is beatable but she's not nearly as beatable as you seem to think. There are 2, maybe 3 skaters who can beat her if she's clean. But 5 or 6? Not in this field.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2017
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  28. slipchuk

    slipchuk Active Member

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    Well you already mention Medvedeva, Osmond, Anna possibly. You admit a clean Anna and clean Satoko will be very close, but remember at Russian Nationals a clean Anna lost to Maria with a mistake in her LP, so based on that Maria has a chance to. A clean Kostner would probably be close with a clean Satoko too, and might beat her, her PCS and GOE on jumps will be higher, but spins and base value are lower. Based on her Europeans form she could in the fight for atleast bronze at worlds if she skates perfectly at worlds in both programs. And Alina Zagitova will be immediately beating Satoko when she turns senior next year I predict.

    At worlds last year Satoko was totally clean in the LP and still beaten by Medvedeva, Wagner with mistakes, and Anna in the LP, coming only 4th and 5th overall. Gold with 2 major mistakes in the long scored over Satoko whose only mistake was one first degree downgraded jump in the short. Most other times others make mistakes and Satoko capatilizes which she did when she won silver at the 2015 worlds, when all of Elena, Gracie, Ashley, and Mao skating well would have easily beaten her even without her 1 mistake (a fall) in the LP. I know she has improved a ton since then, but her greatest strength is still consistency, along with the Japanese federation influence. I like her skating but the really small jumps and her general skating small bothers me. Christine Brennan I remember speaking of seeing her live at worlds and saying you can put a piece of paper between her and the ice on her jumps, and that she totally agreed with her getting no medal despite skating perfectly. If she improves her tiny weak jumps, skates alot faster, and skates bigger and more dynamic though she can be a modern day Michelle Kwan with less magic and way better spins as their skating style and strengths are overall very similar otherwise IMO, but until she does those things I am not totally sold on her. And maybe she wont since I get the impression alot of it is her small frame and cant/wont be helped.
     
  29. douglasottawa

    douglasottawa Banned Member

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    Tara won Olympic Gold over a clean Kwan by her jumps alone since she had nothing else, and her jumps were tiny. She also held on to win the 97 worlds even with Kwan and Slutskaya both skating cleanly and spectacularly in the LP with a triple-triple each, and Irina's jumps are HUGE. Which means her jumps were overall rated super highly even with their being tiny, so height is a very small percentage and one of many components of good jumps, let alone jumps plus everything else. And Miyahara unlike Tara isnt just a jumping bean who races from jump to jump, but a beautiful and complete skater with outstanding spins, amazing musicality, beautiful edges and flow, and first rate footwork and spirals. Not surprising the judges dont consider Miyahara's lack of jump height against her at all when you think of it.
     
  30. Meoima

    Meoima Well-Known Member

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    Satoko's fate is decided by Technical specialist, if they are strict, she will be punished FAIRLY cause her toe jumps are not triples but more like doubles.
    The only reason Satoko gets the TES she is getting is JSF's influence.
     
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