Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Gabybackhand, Apr 22, 2013.
The thread title should read 'Which skater can beat a clean Yu Na Kim if he falls 3 or 4 times'
As far I am concerned, if Kim is clean Kim will win.
That's strange to read those 2 posts back to back.
You complain about Sotnikova's technical issues and you say Mao is the one who can beat Yu Na Kim ?
Had Kostner skated a clean SP at Worlfds she would have scored 70.4-70.5 - that's more than Ki'm score. She beat Kim on PCS, although thta was probably due to Kim skating very early. Let's say they are about even, even with Kostner's easier jumps.
Had Kostner skated a clean LP, with a 3L and a clean 3S for last element she would have scored 140+ and that's with slightly easier jump content. With two mistakes she picked up 11.59 GoE points to Kim's 16.51. Had she gone clean her PCS may have rivaled Kim's.
It is reasonable to assume that Kostner will be trying out a more difficult contnet next GP season - with a 3F+3T in the SP and repeating the 3F and 3L instead of 3T and 3S in the LP, or maybe a second 2A. That would bring her BV higher than Kim's. If she can go clean she could win.
Of course, Kim is more likely to skate clean, whatever the content of the others.
Kostner did a clean LP at her own Nationals and only scored 145 didnt she. If she cant even score as high for a clean LP at her own Nationals as Kim does in an international event then things get pretty obvious. As for the SP at Worlds the next time Kim does a clean short her score will probably be atleast 6 points higher (deservedly or not). It wasnt even clean anyway, both the edge call on the flip and one of her spins was messed up.
But that was with 6 triples (she only did 3f2t there) and without a 3jump combo.
But There is a difference in jump BV...
kostner 3Lo, 3t-3t, 2a
Yuna, 3F, 3lz-3t, 2a
How was the details of the protocol,
clean Caro could beat clean Yuna?
Only by her PCS?
The difference in base value was not that big: 31.63 (Kim - with an edge call on her 3f and two level 3 spins) vs. 29.93 (Kostner - with a fall on the combo and one level3 spin). Including GOE that would be 36.79 (Kim) vs. 34.01 (Kostner).
PCS was 33.18 (Yuna) vs. 33.85 (Caro).
A clean Carolina would have managed to beat Yuna's short at this year's Worlds (not only based on PCS but also on TES). Next season is a different story though, as I think Yuna's score would probably be 2-3 points higher than what she received in London (she still has room to improve on her spin levels).
Personally I think a clean Carolina can rival a clean Yuna because she is the only skater currently competitng who has the ability to match Yuna both in PCS and GOE. If, and I know that is a BIG if, Caro skates clean, she would receive similar scores. I am not sure whether it will ever happen but it's theoratically possible.
And Caro's PCS with one fall, was higher than clean Yuna's. If Caro had clean, her PCS would more higher than that. Maybe 34-35..
ITA. Becuase Caro was the reigning World Champion there then and it was Yuna's first ISU competition since 2011 Worlds. I mean Yuna, for her absence, couldn't get enough scores both in TES and GOE she ought to deserve. It must be the last chance for Caro to win Yuna in SP.
But now it's totally changed. The bar is up to Yuna's performances. And No technical panel will dare to nitpick at Yuna's 3F next season.
Since Asada often wins competitions with flawed performances, I think she can MAYBE beat Yu-Na if she is clean and does the 3A. I don't think anyone else can beat Yu-Na if she is clean, even if they are.
yuna is rightfully ahead of the pack with her GOE, but this whole PCS monopoly business is silly to me. it's really no different from 6.0 in that regard
If Yu-Na is clean there is no way anyone can touch her. This year's worlds is proof of that. The +2s and +3s for every element in GOE and the high 9s and even 10s for PCS are evidence that if she's clean she will win by a landslide regardless of what anyone does. I do think the judges went overboard (both in PCS and GOE) but when she skates like that and others make mistakes, it's understandable.
Yu-Na's consistency seems to have gotten a bit better since her hiatus from competition judging by her last two competitions but we'll have to see if that consistency carries over to and through next season. If Yu-Na makes a mistake she still has a sizable GOE and PCS cushion which would allow her to stay ahead of her main competitors especially if they make mistakes.
I think both Mao and Carolina have a chance to beat a flawed Yu-Na but not a clean Yu-Na...and they would have to be clean themselves in order to accomplish that. If Mao can capitalize on her high TES and complete all of the jumps, she has a good chance win...ONLY IF Yu-Na makes mistakes. Even if Mao hit all of her jumps the judges would not give her enough PCS or GOE to overtake a clean Yu-Na. Mao would narrowly beat Yu-Na in TES (b/c of all the GOE points Yu-Na receives) but she'd lose to her in PCS. If Mao is clean and Yu-Na is flawed, depending on Yu-Na's mistakes the judges would have it go either way though given their competitive history, I'd say a pristine Mao should beat a flawed Yu-Na just on principle.
As for Carolina, her lesser TES would make it tough for her to compete with Yu-Na but if she kept the 3F-3T and added a 2nd lutz as well as maximized the levels on her non-jump elements, she'd close that gap quite a bit...IF she skates cleanly. Carolina has lovely jumps when she hits them and they receive good GOE; when she makes mistakes she scores highly in PCS so if she's clean the scores will be even better. A clean Carolina can compete with a clean Yu-Na but I don't think she could beat her. However, I do believe a clean Carolina could beat a flawed Yu-Na.
What it all comes down to is Yu-Na controls her own fate. If she's clean, she's unbeatable. If she makes mistakes she leaves the door slightly open but the only way anyone steps through is with a perfectly clean and inspired performance.
As for anyone other than Mao or Carolina, they don't have the clout necessary to garner the kind of PCS or GOEs of the other top ladies.
It is very rare that Mao have fewer mistakes than Yuna,
And I remember Yuna have never won Mao when she mistakes more than Mao.
when Yuna beat Mao, even though except GOE, she always won Mao in TES.
And she has never won by high PCS.
In 2013 world championships, even if except GOE point, kim is 1rd in TES.
Who get most benefit from PCS, GOE is Carolina. If except for the GOE, her rank would go down a lot.(it does not mean that it is unjustified.)
when I look at your post, You seem to want to say that she dominate by GOE and PCS score. it's not fact.
Carolina and Mao has been doing more mistakes than Yuna, and They were more difficult to do clean skating than Yuna.
Yu Na has never lost to Mao except times she made more mistakes than Mao also. When Mao won her 2nd World title she skated a clean LP and lost the LP to an unclean and uninspired Kim (wrongly IMO), but won since Kim had a horrendous SP. The Olympics in Vancouver are the closest example we will get to how a clean Mao or clean Kim would go in more recent times. Both had a clean short and Kim was ahead by 5 points. After Kim's LP score it was clear Mao had no chance of winning, even with the skate of her life. As it was she made 2 mistakes and lost by 23 points. If one is being super generous she might have lost by 8-10 points overall with no mistakes (it could have still been as much as 15, there is no way of really knowing the possible lost GOE or PCS except to say it sure wouldnt have been anywhere near enough to win). I doubt there is a single person who would argue Asada could have won the 2010 Olympics had her LP been clean, and that is when she was doing 3 triple axels cleanly some competitions (and did there). What has changed since then for either skater which would make any difference really? Atleast Kostner you know has improved a ton, improved her consistency, and gained alot more judges respect through improved status, momentum, consistency, and overall program quality since then.
I agree with the earlier poster who said the judges used to see Mao and Kim as roughly equal but that ship has long sailed. It was a shame we didnt get an event both skated their best in 2006-2008 as that would have been super close and very interesting. From 2009 onwards it is easily Kim if both skate well or similarily. Kostner now is much closer to Kim in a hypothetical everyone skates clean fantasy than Mao is, while from 2006-2008 it would have been Kostner who would have been way behind in that scenario (actually today is the first time in Kostner's career she is at all close in that scenario).
Since you mentioned the Olympic Games, Rochette in Vancouver was quite a lot closer to Asada in both programs than Asada was to Kim. Did the judges inflate Rochette's scores in an attempt to give her the silver medal? I don't think so because if the judges would have wanted to give the silver to Rochette, they would have done so, who could possibly have stopped them? Did the judges perhaps inflate Rochette's scores to keep her in contention for bronze? Not sure about that because Rochette wouldn't have needed a PC score as high as 68+ in the free skate - higher than Mao's, btw - to go home with the bronze medal. Perhaps if we could understand why Asada and Rochette - who was a very decent skater but not a great one - were separated by a little less than three points over the two programs, we could also understand why Kim with two big mistakes beat a clean/almost clean Asada in the free skate at 2010 Worlds.
This is not Mao bashing, I would really love for Mao to win the gold in Sochi - Yuna already has the Olympic title, why would she need another one? - but the scores I've seen don't encourage me to believe that she could.
By Vancouver the overall quality of Mao's jumping and choreography had already declined enough (as well as her favor with the judges) she literally needed the triple axel to beat someone like Rochette. Even at that her couple mistakes would have cost her the silver if Joannie didnt make a couple herself. That is pretty much all I would read into the scores there. As for Kostner by her Vancouver scores she was no contender there even had she gone clean, so if she had to bomb an Olympics it was better that one (granted she bombed in Turin where she probably did have a shot), but in Sochi it will be a much different story, so hopefully she can capatilize on her big medal opportunity there.
That doesn't mean they shouldn't have or shouldn't be now. If Mao could stay consistent and if the judges hadn't annoited Yuna as the top woman in the field I feel that Mao should be considered Yuna's top rival. Don't get me wrong, Yuna is very good at what she does but I think sometimes Mao tends to be underrated. I feel both ladies are very equal despite the fact that the judges don't seem to want to recognize that.
Until the 06-08 season, the situation was the opposite with now. but since 08-09, The situation was reversed...
After the 2010 WC, she couldn't even enter the podium at WC in two seasons. And this season, she was third place at WC, stood on the podium after a long time.
Yuna stood on the podium in all competitions. she almost always makes less mistakes than Mao...
I can't even remind when I saw Mao's clean program last.
It is true. Yu-Na's TES base value was only 4th in the competition behind Mao, Zijun Li, and Gracie Gold. The fact that Yu-Na executes her jumps so well is what contributes to her high GOE scores. Prior to Vancouver, I'd never seen Yu-Na skate two 100% clean programs. She'd always have a mistake here or there (doubled/popped/omitted jump, occasionally a fall) but the overall strength of the rest of her elements allowed her about a 5 point cushion to make a mistake.
When the rest of her skating stands out so much, it's easier to forgive a mistake. Mao on the other hand cannot afford to pop and miss jumps when she's competing against Yu-Na. Her mistakes cause her to plummet in the standings. Sometimes I feel the judges are harsher with Mao than they are with Yu-Na or Carolina. One could argue Yu-Na and Carolina are better than Mao but I don't think Mao is that far off of them. Carolina and Yu-Na have better speed and lutz technique than Mao...that's the most obvious difference to me.
As for PCS, Yu-Na gets very high PCS...usually higher than anyone else. I honestly don't feel the gap should be as wide as it is mainly when you compare her to Carolina. Personally, I felt that Carolina matched if not beat Yu-Na in PCS this season. Regardless, even when both of them make mistakes the PCS is an area that boosts their scores.
So yes, PCS and GOE are two areas Yu-Na dominates which does help her win. That's not a negative thing IMO. PCS show she has an excellent grasp on skating skills, artistry, performing, etc. and the high GOE means she delivers her elements well...and both of those indicate the judges love her so I see nothing wrong with saying she dominates those areas.
Prior of vancouver, She often did clean SP, and she had usually one or two mistakes in FS. Almost always fewer mistakes than Mao.
And as mentioned above, when she have more mistakes than Mao, she couldn't get the title.
When Yuna wins Mao, even if except the GOE, she won in the TES.
I think Carolina and Yuna have a different style. To carolina, GOE and PCS score a big part of her score, her BV is so low.
She has been won by PCS many times, but Yuna is not. Yuna can win young skaters(zijun, gold, etc) without the PCS score. Carolina is not.
Stats of each skater (The number of 'win by PCS' / The total number of wins)
What exactly is your complaint about PCS?
Yuna has the best career of the three players, the best consistency;she always on the podium in all competitions.
When looking at the 2013 World Championships,
In SP, Yuna had clean program, Carolina fell on 3-3, Mao downgrade on 3F, 3lo→1lo, TES rank was 13.
PCS score; Yuna (33.15) Carolina (33.85) Mao(32.40)
In FS, Yuna had clean program and Standing Ovation, Carolina fell on last jump, Mao two foot 3A, get downgrade on two jumps.
PCS scores; Yuna (73.61) Carolina (70.69) Mao (68.41)
PCS rank 4st was Wagner, her PCS was 63, the gap with Mao's is 5 point. the gap between Yuna-Carolina who fell once is a 3 point, the gap between Mao and Carolina is a 2 points.
When look at the difference between the gap by ranks, The PCS gap of Caro with fall and clean Yuna is not big.
If you think that all skaters PCS gap should be reduce, if so, Mao could not even 6st in SP.
Under COP a clean Kim would thrash a clean Kwan. Under 6.0 it might be interesting.
I voted nobody but Kostner is the one who would come closest. A clean Asada cant come close to a clean Kim in the judges eyes at this point. As Carmen said the judges have created a huge gap between them whether it fairly exists or not. I feel bad for Mao as I love her skating, and she is also trying to push the technical envelope like nobody else.
A better question is will any of Kim, Kostner, or Asada skate past Sochi. I would say no for sure for Kostner. Kim I think will take a break at some point in the 2015-2018 quad then come back. Mao I am not sure, but she is probably done.
They are not "equal" by any means despite what you feel about them.
Are you joking The question is about skaters uner COP, at this point I have no idea how Kwan can beat clean Yuna??? Even if Kwan at her very best, skate clean
I agree but that's not the question asked in this thread.
I want you do not tell your feeling, and explain based on what?
over the past two seasons, Mao had monsterous layout, she was not even on the WC podium. And this season, she was third place in WC.
Since the 08-09 season, every seasons, Yuna won Mao steadily.
This is not a problem for the favorism of the individual, should be considered objective.
Since the 08-09 season when Mao first drops from the WC podium, when they were "very equal"?
I don't hate Mao.
As I wrote above, I think clean Mao would win clean Yuna.
I said only fact
Wow. Really? Despite what I feel about them? This is why I usually keep a wide berth from any Yuna/Mao conversations. I don't "feel" anything about them. I'm not a Mao uber which seems to be what most people think if someone doesn't automatically think Yuna is the best ladies skater. Nor am I a Yuna uber. I also don't hate either lady. Actually neither one is my favorite although I appreciate what both do. It's just my opinion that even when Mao is/was skating well she was underrated when compared to Yuna.
Leaving the conversation now.
That's because despite her technical issues Mao has a monstrous layout with a 3Axel, 3x3 and 8 triples in the free, and she gets very high PCS. So if she's clean--that is she manages to rotate all her jumps--then she can beat a clean Yuna. As far as I know, Sotnikova is not attempting an 8-triple long program with a 3Axel.
People wouldn’t care whether you’re a bot or a hater of a certain skater. Until you say something perceptively unreasonable to some. So please feel free to present your opinion, but at the same time don’t complain when picked for counter statement. No need to defend yourself at length that you’re not an uber of skater X.