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What does Wagner need to improve to control her own destiny vs big guns

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kuzytalent, Jul 26, 2013.

  1. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Banned Member

    Right now Wagner is thought to have an outside shot to medal at the Olympics. People though all believe she needs Kim, Asada, and Kostner to make mistakes to beat any of them. She cant beat any of those if they are clean. Some even think that a clean Gold or Sotnikova might beat a clean Wagner, or maybe even Murakami or Osmond. What does Wagner need to improve upon to control her own destiny and be able to medal even if all the skaters are clean at the Games.
  2. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

    Well, I think that is sort of the wrong question. I am not sure how to pick out what she needs to improve upon, as a particular "thing".

    I think she is competitive with Asada and Kostner. Getting her 3/3 out there and landed will go a long way to assure her a place on the podium. I believe that neither Asada nor Kostner do the full 5 triples. So that is a positive on Wagner's side.

    I see Kim out in front, then Wagner, Asada and Kostner in the next group, and Gold, Stonikova, and maybe Suzuki in the third batch. The top four control their own destiny, and IMO, the others need someone to falter.
  3. chantilly

    chantilly Well-Known Member

    She needs a triple triple. She might squeak by with a toe/toe but not against Kim. She needs a lutz toe or flip toe to beat a clean Kim. And even then I still think Kim has superior skills
  4. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Banned Member

    I agree she needs a triple lutz-triple toe or triple flip-triple toe to beat a clean Kim. Maybe both if it is even possible to include both in one program under the current rules.
  5. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

    You would be wrong. Kim and Osmond are the only two from the top 10 of the last Worlds who didn't plan all 5 basic types of triples in their LP.
  6. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

    :lol: I am very surprised from your posting history that you would even give Wagner any hope of beating a clean Kim. In another thread, you proclaimed that Kim is in some "huge gap" by herself above all of the other women in contemporary skating history.
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2013
  7. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Banned Member

    What is your point. Slutskaya and Lipinski, especialy Lipinski, rank much lower than Kwan in history but still have a chance to beat even a clean Kwan. Thomas ranks much lower than Witt in history but still had a chance to beat even a clean Witt. Wagner will never rank anywhere near Yu Na Kim in history but it doesnt mean if she improves she cant have a chance vs a clean Kim in a given competition.
  8. DarrellH

    DarrellH New Member

    She needs a Triple-Triple, and a dramatic, striking program. A strong short program will have her well, placed, and in the judges' eyes..
  9. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

    1. She needs to skate clean, which so far seems a challenge for her.
    2. She needs to up her tech mark... a consistent 3/3, 2/3 etc..
    3. she needs to get rid of that 2 footing problem that plagues her.
    4. She needs some "wow" type programs/packaging. Nicks did a great job of boosting her last year. She needs to build on that.
    5. She needs to whore the crap out of cop.. pull an Evan and just make very point count.
    6. She needs to build some momentum. Not medaling at the last worlds already put her at a disadvantage. She needs to win a few GPS, medal at GPF, win nats, etc...
  10. Lnt175

    Lnt175 Member

    The major difference here being that Thomas and Lipinski were able to beat their main rivals at least one competition prior to the Olympics, and both had at least one lights out skate in their Olympic season (Thomas at 88 nats and Lipinski at 98 GPF). Wagner has not come close to beating Kim, and she has yet to prove she can really skate clean in one major competition yet.
  11. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

    This. Even if she skates clean with all the triples, her usual choreo and execution would not beat a clean Kim, Asada or Kostner, IMO. Wagner needs more power and presence on the ice. She needs good music and choreo that lifts her above the music.
  12. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    I think she has power and presence. When I saw her for the first time, I was really impressed by that. But she skates too carefully, IMO.
  13. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Well-Known Member

    This will sound harsher than I want it to, so in advance: I like Ashley, and I think she's made some amazing progress in the 2011-12 season, but.... I don't think one off-season is enough to improve so much as to control her own destiny against the big 3.
    She's behind in TES and PCS (and in reputation). Kim goes for 'only' 4 different triples, but has amazing quality in her jumps and a very consistent 3Lz-3T. Kostner goes for 5 triples, and can hit Lz and F without edge problems. Asada flutzes, like Wagner does, but she's going for the 3A and attempts all 6 triples.
    If she wanted to keep up with them, probably the 2A-3T and 3F-3T wouldn't even be enough.
    Amazing choreo would go a long way regarding the PCS, but only if Kostner, Kim and Asada don't really have good choreo themselves. She's weaker in SS, doesn't have the same speed that Kim and Kostner have, and OTOH not the posture and lightness of Asada. Her presence and confidence are great, but the other ladies are very good performers too.

    I don't think it's impossible that someone challenges the big 3, but I don't think it would be Wagner (if everyone would be clean, I don't even see her being 4 as of now).
    kosjenka and (deleted member) like this.
  14. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

    Yeah, I think it also comes down to just the basic skating. Kim, Asada, and Kostner are just light years ahead of Wagner when it comes down to the basics (ie skating skills, etc). Although Wagner's jumps are solid and she does rack up some good GOE marks for them, the other three pack on higher GOE for their elements than Wagner does.
  15. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Ashley will need the performance of her life and mistakes by the big 3 to get on the podium. Akiko Suzuki could end up finishing ahead of her also if she has one of her best skates also. Then there is Gracie and Murakami who also are in the mix.
  16. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

    Speed. i could be wrong but I think she has slowed down in recent years and it takes away the wow factor, for me.
  17. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

    For years it seemed USFSA determined who would go to the next level based on their presentation and whether or not they had something they called a lutz. I hope they've gotten the message that skating skills and jump quality are everything now.
  18. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

    ...... assuming both Wagner and Gold are at the Olympics!
  19. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    Ashley said something in her TSL interview which resonated with me: She's not naturally graceful. Unfortunately, she's competing against swan-like skaters for a podium spot: Kim, Asada, Kostner. She will need the clean programs w/ 3-3 or 2x-3t. But, she will have to find a way to compete with yet stand out from the aforementioned skaters. Tall Order.

    BTW, I disagree with posters that say she needs to control her 2-footing. Already done.

    Summation - She just needs to build on all her components and find a vehicle that breaks thru the Kim/Asada/Kostner triumvirate
  20. Simone411

    Simone411 Covfefe! FSU Uber fan!

    I think I posted this in another thread a few months back. I like Ashley, but she will need a flawless or perfect skate to even come close to being on the podium.
  21. torren

    torren New Member

    Ashley's dream for olympic season is so ambitious!

    she said in interview as a her dream, here is link http://www.teamusa.org/News/2013/January/01/Go-For-The-Gold-Home/Go-For-The-Gold-Ashley-Wagner
    “I would go to Sochi, skate two perfect programs, with the crowd giving me a standing ovation for my free skate, and I would win the gold medal. I’ll settle for the podium, but I want that gold medal.”
    Her dream is not just any color of olympic medal, but GOLD medal. But I don't think she will be able to achieve it Whatever she does before olympic season starts
  22. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

    It's all relative. Next to the likes of Rachel Flatt, Wagner may look pretty powerful, but when she gets on the ice with the big guns at Worlds, her basic stroking and edge control is just not as strong. ITA that she often looks to be skating carefully, rather than all out. Especially at the Olympics, careful will rarely beat all-out. (See the 98 ladies podium).
  23. DarrellH

    DarrellH New Member

    How about Wagner skates to Wagner? Maybe something from the Rings cycle?
  24. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I <3 Kozuka

    Her programs for this season are already set, and there's no Wagner in them.

    Kostner took years to look graceful and was repeatedly called coltish into her 20's. She's become an elegant skater since her year with Carroll, but I wouldn't call her swan-like.
  25. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

    I think it will be a problem that Ashley is thinking about being "perfect" as quoted up thread. IMHO, Ashley was extremely lucky at Worlds this year that both Osmond and Gold were newbies. Gold's jumps are way better than Ashley's, and Osmond's skating skills, confidence, and performance are better. I suspect we will see improvement with Gold in the skating skills, confidence, and performance aspects, and improvement with Osmond in the jumps. If Ashley goes for perfect she will be slow and skate small (something she tends towards anyway.) When that happens she will be passed by Gold and Osmond and probably some others. JMHO, of course
  26. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I <3 Kozuka

    She acknowledged that perfectionism and over-thinking were what has been holding her back. I've seen both Wagner and Osmond live, and I would not say that Osmond's performance is always better than Wagner's, but it certainly is when Wagner is being conservative, and Osmond is confident, which I hope she will continue to be as she's more and more in the spotlight. It doesn't hurt that Osmond's most formidable and politically backed competition, Phaneuf, retired, and that Lacoste petered after showing improvement, while Wagner's internal competition, plus last year's "Curse of the National Champion Repeat," was hanging over her head. US skaters constantly are trying to peak for Nationals, and allowing themselves to use GP and early international competitions to test new elements has become the luxury of the up-and-coming contenders.

    Ironically it's the technical work with Arutunian that may help to free Wagner from her perfectionism: he's trying to tool her jump technique so that it's repeatable/automatic through muscle memory regardless of how she feels, instead of her trying to reproduce the "feel" in competition, which she also acknowledges. When she's got the technique under her belt, and it becomes automatic, her jumps might be closer to perfect than when she tried to force them to be perfect, and she can focus on the performance aspects she studies with Nicks.
  27. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    And on that note, she also stated in her TSL interview that she thinks 'calmer jump entrances' (which Rafael is teaching her) will help her attain the 3-3 or 2x-3t
  28. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Would you agree with mag's assertion that Osmond's skating skills are better than Wagner's? Because I'm not sure I would (though Osmond can obviously pull off some crazy transitions).
  29. os168

    os168 Active Member

    As seen on TSL, Ashley has the great confidence and self believe (+2 on nice dosage of healthy self deprecating humour) to prepare her own big gun for the ultimate kiss kiss bang bang at US nationals. Although I am really excited to see how Gracey progresses from last year, she is by far a better athlete. Upon second thought, she can do well if her talent matches even matches 60% of that attitude. The rivalry between she and gold is getting exciting to see (did she mention anything about continuing after Sochi?).

    As bored as I am with the convention that the skater must pick a Russian composer's piece for Sochi, I thought the Prokiev's Romeo and Juliet is an inspired FS choice that will suit her style without she having to do too much work. The dramatic phrasing provide enough emoting that wasn't quite right from her program last year, possibly the best follow up to her transformational Black Swan program.

    Ashley has the drama and the Prom Queen presence, Gracey has the extraordinary jumps and the Golden girl power. The US is in good hands + a Miraicle comeback or a healthy Alissa (Surely an international judge's sentimental fav?) US should be in very good hands. If Ashley want to be in even more firmer control over he own destiny - Bring some Hollywood Glam, use her American Sass, get the package right (Stick with the Black swan costume designer) but make sure her tech content (3:3, 2A3T, No double footer) matches the packaging, it can turn out to be a bazooka in Russia.

    Another things in her favour, who you think ISU is going to turn towards to after Asia loosing its bests after Sochi? Plus Kostner is likely to retire.
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2013
  30. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

    I think Ashley has a very good chance at a medal.

    Her programs are COP friendly. In her TSL interview, she said she was planning a 3F+3T in the short and 2A+3T in the free. She already knows that she has to put her hardest content out there.

    If she sticks to the jump layout she has been the last couples seasons, she'll have seven triples and two 2A. She repeats two high value jumps, the 3F and 3Lo. Her programs are usually backloaded. She can hit level 4 spins. Her footwork is admittedly a weakness, but it's not terrible.

    Her PCS scores have improved, but to push the top 3, she needs to push through the choreo sequence and end of the program -- make that lasting final impression. If her free skate is a character-drive program I think the judges will reward her.

    The top 3 also have at least one Olys under their belts, so they know how to deal with the pressure.