Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Strawberry301, Feb 11, 2010.
...if the 14 years minimum for JGP would not be voted at Congress
Zawadzki and Imai might be competing on the senior circuit in the coming season, that's what I was more thinking. Plus if Shelepen, Ovcharova, Agafonova, and Birukova stay another season on the JGP they'd be likely to make the final as well, and then it really could be a Russian sweep. And then there's cute little Roza .
Baga is very good but prone to meltdowns in the FS, Gao will compete on the senior circuit, Kawamura has lost most of her triples, Maxwell if she's not injured will likely compete senior so we shall see. Also, I don't get this hype about Imai, she was 16th at Junior Worlds last year and didn't seem that great as far as I could tell this season. The Fujisawa girl is much better than her IMO.
I'm hoping Jiang and Cesario get JGP assignments in the coming season, they are very nice skaters and I think they could do well if the lack of reputation doesn't hurt them.
that's no good. Still, I really can't picture someone like Shelepen or Ovcharova ever being like heavy, they look like the kind of girls who will stay thin as adults, for those two the height may be more of an issue though, apparently they both grew like 6 cm in the past year!
While Zawadzki may do the SGP, I'm starting to think Tom Zakrajsek will want her to get some JGP experience first. I think she would be totally competitive in the senior ranks, but Tom doesn't seem like the type of coach to throw his skaters into situations before he feels they are ready.
I think Shelepen will be on the SGP, as she has already medaled on the JGP and at the Final. Ovcharova has skary jump technique and doesn't appear to be the strongest competitor...it's a little premature to be anointing her. Based on the clip posted earlier in this thread, Sheveleva doesn't seem to have the greatest speed or jump technique (her flip particularly). She may be in danger of even getting an initial JGP assignment based on the strength of the Russian junior ladies.
Baga did extremely well in her two JGP events last season. Yes, she had issues at the Final -- her first major ISU event -- but she regrouped nicely at Junior Worlds with a fantastic free skate. Kawamura is a non-factor; she won't be getting a JGP assignment anyway, and I doubt Maxwell will either.
Lack of reputation? They, just like Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova, have never been on the JGP so it's not a surprise that they aren't established with the international judges. Cesario and Jiang have a little international experience in winning their events at Gardena last week, but I can't imagine they wouldn't be rewarded if they skate up to their potential on the JGP. Baga had never competed internationally before last season and she won two gold medals. I don't think it will be a problem for them if they skate well.
See, that's why I would rather claw my eyes out than watch skating with American commentary.
I don't think lack of reputation will hurt anyone, but Jiang only has 3 triples (T, S, Lo), and they are not very consistent. Siraj, despite finishing 2nd to Jiang, has shown more promise, I think, and has a 3F. Cesario's lovely, but very prone to downgrades. If they all skate clean, I can't see them beating Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva based on what they've shown so far.
I can't, either, but the notion that their "lack of reputation" will hurt them is ridiculous (which is what I was getting to in the original post, but perhaps didn't word well).
We agree then Didn't hurt Baga, or you know, Yu-Na Kim some years ago
I agree, but if Agnes really wants to do the SGP, I don't see Tom convincing her out of it.
I agree about Shelepen.
I think you're assessment of Ovcharova is unfair. Yes, she is not the most consistent but she is certainly no worse of a competitor than the likes of Baga, Agafonova, and all the other girls from Russia. She made it to the JGPF as a 13 year old so clearly she has promise, plus her PCS are always among the top at junior events. She won the silver medal at the junior nationals in a deep field, defeating skaters like Shelepen, Tuktamysheva, and Sotnikova. She also won the SP at Junior Worlds with an impressive score of nearly 60 points, receiving +GOE for all her jumps. Her technique seems to be greatly improved since JGP Budapest this fall and I'm sure she will continue to work on it. Clearly the judges think she has a lot of promise so I would not be so quick to write her off - had she delivered a clean LP at Junior Worlds she likely would have won the event, given her scores in the SP. Also, why would the judges give her such a high score if she wasn't a good skater? I think she is blossoming into a great skater and she is so young that she has time to work on her consistency to become a stronger competitor.
You're right about Sheveleva, but I think a lot will depend on if Agafonova, Ovcharova, and Birukova move up to seniors this season or not. You didn't mention Agafonova or Birukova in your post, thoughts on those two?
Baga had issues at the final and at nationals and in the SP at Junior Worlds. I'm not saying she's a terrible competitor but she's about as inconsistent as most of the other girls. I agree about Kawamura but I don't know what the deal with Maxwell is where she didn't compete at nationals (it's a shame she didn't, she probably would have done quite well given how poorly Alissa and Caroline skated) so I don't know how the USFSA deals with stuff like that.
True, I guess I didn't really think of that, I just assumed people knew about Liza and Adelina because they have done so well in Russia. Cesario seems to be improving her URs and if she can continue to do that she could be a factor. Jiang seems more consistent than a lot of the other juniors which might come in handy.
That is a big if, Sotinkova has been averaging about 3 falls in her FS this entire season. When she is on, she's great, but she fell 4 times in her FS at junior nationals so I have to think something is up. Puberty maybe, so hopefully she can overcome it soon, but if it's due to injury that could make it more difficult.
Anna has not been as consistent all season as the 2 Polina's, Murakami, or even Christina Gao. I dont know if it is all being a headcase or her jump technique problems but she is the only one of the top juniors who never seems to close to a clean long program.
I think the problem is that her jump technique, while bad, is even worse in pressure-filled situations. I think she's a better skater than Shelepen and Agafonova, but her jumps aren't as nice as theirs. Perhaps some of this is due to the fact that she (Ovcharova) isn't as "stick like" as the two Polina's. It will certainly be interesting to see which of the Russian babies are able to deal with puberty the best.
Well, she beat Christina Gao in the SP and FS at the JGP Poland, and Kiri in the SP and FS at the JGPF, and beat both of them overall at Jr Worlds. And she did almost a perfect LP at the Russian Junior Nationals where she landed 6 triples (2 lutzes, 2 flips - all with no edge calls)and only stepped out of one jump. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2_EytmJFwk . Maybe not the most asthetically pleasing jumps but they were all rotated and landed and she got a big score of 109+, winning the FS at that event. Also, Anna's not close to clean LPs still always score about 90 points, which on the junior ranks is pretty decent.
I think that may be true. It does look like the jumps have at least improved though, even though they still are not ideal in their asthetics/technique. She does have good speed though and no edge issues which I think saves her. Even when she makes mistakes in her LPs, her score is not that low compared to the other girls because her PCS, spins, spirals, footwork, and performance are superior, in addition to her lack of edge issues and tendency to fully rotate her jumps, even when she falls.
I actually think some of Anna's issues in the LP are puberty based because it looks like she is going through puberty now whereas the Polina's have not yet started puberty. The other thing is that Anna has only gotten most of her triple jumps recently. Last season she only had 2 triples I think and that's why she was so far down in the standings at Jr Nationals. So the combination of learning new jumps while adjusting to a new body is bound to make it a bit difficult, and that may be what she's going through now. The thing is though, she's managing to do well for herself and improve regardless, so in the future when the other girls are fighting their puberty woes, Anna may be fully adjusted to her new body and be able to pull ahead. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it does look like she'll be finished with the dreaded puberty days before most of the others, and having those rough experience while competing on the junior circuit will tarnish her reputation less than having it happen on the senior ranks (like what happened to Mirai and Caroline). If she does another year on the JGP, then when she moves up to seniors she will only be 15 and likely adjusted to her body whereas I think Shelepen will have to battle puberty while on the senior ranks.
In the hypothetical she skated cleanly she probably be beating any of the current Juniors other than possibly Murakami so just because she sometimes beats Gao or Kiri doesnt prove at all she is being consistent. Those are skaters she would beat all the time at this point if she werent the most inconsistent of all the top juniors probably. Kiri is also inconsistent and would be beating Gao easily if she werent as her PCS are higher from the judges even for flawed performances. Kostner and Nagasu often beat Flatt, I wouldnt say that means they are more consistent skaters than Flatt.
I did not see her Russian Nationals LP until now. However she was only 8th in the short so she must have really bombed that.
I think that Agafonova's skating might improve though. People who saw her at Junior Worlds said that she's not slow, but its just she's so tiny that it takes a lot of effort to make it accross the ice. Her skating might improve if she grows a little bit (as long as she doesn't lose her jumps)
Honestly I think it will be easier for the two Polina's to improve the rest of their skating than it will be for Anna to improve her jumps, and the two Polina's were even beating her regularly this season. Who knows for sure though. The Russians have so many young skaters coming up, and some even more highly regarded ones (at the moment) entering juniors next season, it will be fascinating to see the road all of them take and which ones end up on the Sochi team. I presume they will have 3 spots by then, it would be very dissapointing for them if they didnt.
Ovcharova's jumping technique is terrible but I am really hoping she can fix it (she's improved it already somewhat since the start of the season, as has been noted already).
She is by far the most interesting skater out of all the "babies" IMO. She is really perky, has tons of character on the ice and very good basics. A strong all-round skater. Just add better jumps to the mix and you have all you could ask for.
I agree that she and Kiri and fairly comparable in that jumping is not their strong suit, sometimes they have problems in the LP, and their PCS and everything else help them stay high in the standings. In reality though, most of the junior ladies aren't that consistent with the exception of Kanako and Shelepen earlier in the season, though recently she seems to be having a lot of issues in the SP.
As for Agafonova, she is not exactly consistent either. She didn't qualify for the JGPF because she bombed at one of her events and only finished 10th at Russian Nationals, where Anna had two solid performances and finished 5th.
Anna's SP at the Junior Nationals she didn't bomb, she just had issues on her combination (stepped out of it). The scores were all really close and that's why she was 8th, her SP score was like 54 so it wasn't that bad.
I agree that Kiri and Anna could probably beat most of the other girls if they were more consistent, but I think they are both going through some growing pains currently and that may be part of the reason for it. They are the most complete skaters of the junior ladies IMO, they just need to be better about landing the jumps.
I agree. I think what she really needs is to learn how to do a toeloop in combination. Sounds crazy but I actually think that is part of the problem. For all her combination jumps she tacks on 2lo, and in order to rotate those jumps without the assistance of her free leg she torques her body a lot and really uses her arms to get around. Also, if the landing on the first jump isn't quite right, she is forced to do a 3-turn before going into the second jumps. In her 2 jump combos she seems to have gotten much better, but in the 3 jump combo it's hard to do two 2lo in a row if you're technique and flow aren't spot on.
I don't know how hard technique is to fix, but one thing that does make her situation different from someone like Caroline Zhang or Alissa Czisny is that he carries a lot of speed across the ice. Her edge takeoffs are also fine and she doesn't have any weird kick so really what I think she needs to work on is flow coming out of the jumps. Her 2a is good in this sense but that's likely because of the forward takeoff. Under-rotations also don't seem to be a big problem for her either except on the loop jump. Also, maybe she should take a break from attempting all of her jumps from such difficult transitions, I know she does that to get the PCS up but she should focus on the technique first. She definitely doesn't seem tentative which is also good because the speed and attack should help when she tries to rework her jumps.
There's an interview with her coach on the Russian skating website where she says next season she is really going to work with Anna on the LP. She says that in the coming season they will pick a LP that will highlight Anna's strengths so that she doesn't fire everything up only in the SP like she did most of this season, and work on doing more run-throughs so that Anna can become more consistent and comfortable with the jumps. I think that sounds like a good plan and hope it works. She was a nice surprise this season, I remember thinking her programs at JGP Budapest were really fun and as the season went on she got much better.
As for basic skating being easier to fix than jumps, it's likely the Polina's will have to fix their jumps once they go through puberty. Mirai didn't have bad technique as a little kid but Frank Carrrol said that in the past year he has had to reconstruct nearly all of Mirai's jump technique. Unless you have flawless technique (which neither Polinas do), chances are you have to rework it once your body changes. I honestly think some of Anna's struggles this season are due to physical changes rather than purely technique issues or being a headcase. Sotnikova and Baga have been having similar issues and Shelepen seems to be developing them too. Anna is 20cm taller than Agafonova so obviously it is harder for her to jump, and she also has a somewhat defined body shape unlike Shelepen who is still built like a little boy with no hips or shoulders, on the ice Anna actually doesn't look that different physically from a lot of the thinner senior ladies so she might be going through the rebuilding period of her jumps now.
Oh and about Liza, she looks about Agafonova's size judging from these pictures:
Alena is 5'3" and Ksenia 5'6" so Liza is well under 5 feet tall. I thought she was tall but she is still very, very tiny and may be a question mark in the future. Shelepen and Ovcharova are both taller than Leonova and therefore less worrisome, even if their jumps aren't as good, as Liza may grow the better part of a foot before she stops.
Both of Eliza's parents are reportedly short, so people don't think she's going to be that tall..
Yeah, but that could be an issue too. Elene Gedevanishvilli was really short and tiny at that age and then she didn't get much taller but filled out a lot and her jumps suffered. I remember her at the Olympics in 2006, doing 3f-3t like they were doubles and now she's so tentative with all her jumps.
I miss this Elene, she was thrilling.
I like Liza though so I hope puberty doesn't ruin her.
Aren't those podium pics, where Liza is a step below the other two?
No, in those pics they are all standing on the ice. Liza really is just that little. She might be okay though, but she certainly has a lot of growing ahead of her, I had no idea she was so tiny, she does a good job of looking tall on the ice.
Does anyone have a link to a video of Liza doing 3a on the ice? I heard she did it in a competition or at a competition practice, I really want to see it! Bet it's awesome.
I heard she did it on practice before her last competition and it was clean, but there is no video She tried it in her FS too, but it was a bad day for her, her axel was only single (and some other jumps too). By the way, Roza Sheveleva did really well there, beat Liza in FS and got bonus points (it means she did clean 3-3 or clean 3Lz and 3F with no edge calls which also impressive), so I think we will see her on the JGP next season
As for Elene, she is from Geogria. Most Georgian girls fill out a lot at this age, so it was predictable. And I don't think it will happen with Liza. Puberty will be the real test, yes, but she has perfect technique and maybe the best coach in the world when it comes to jumps, so I think she will be fine. I'm more worried about Adelina.
Yay Roza! She is just the cutest thing ever . Yeah I think she will get JGP assignments, especially if Shelepen and maybe Agafonova/Ovcharova/Birukova move up to the SGP. Anna got JGP assignments this season despite only finishing 16th at the Junior Nationals in 09 because she did well at some local Russian competitions at the end of the year. I agree about Liza, I think she will be ok, it was more just a surprised. I had assumed she was more the same height as Shelepen and Ovcharova but she clearly is not. She might just stay little even when she grows up though.
ITA about Adelina, so sad to see her struggle so much recently , she is so gorgeous out there but she just falls so much. She and Anna both skate at CSKA and neither seem to have ideal technique and both fall a lot, are the coaches at that club not known for teaching good technique to their skaters? Clearly they are good at other things though because Adelina and Anna both have great spins, stretch, and basic skating. Is the club Shelepen and Lipinskaya known to be better? I know that it is in Moscow too, and those girls seem to have better technique on the jumps and fall a lot less. Adelina's issue may just be that she is growing a lot though, so maybe by next season she'll be adjusted at least for awhile and be able to deliver more clean performances.
I just came across this picture, seems like Mishin REALLY wants Liza to be the next Irina, and believes she can do it. How cute.
Whoa and Adelina and Alena look like they could be sisters.
I wonder who the Kevin Reynolds almost look alike is-the blond hair one. But Elizaveta is right in the center! Next big hope for sure.
I don't know who it is but he really does look like Reynolds. Haha yeah Liza is front and center! Ksenia and Anna look sassy as usual.