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U.S. Ladies [#9]: Battle to/in Boston

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Nov 12, 2013.

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  1. Sylvia

    Sylvia Prepping for club comp. season!

    Re-posting to this relevant thread:
    ETA this season's international high total scores using chipso1's format:

    2013-14 U.S. Ladies

    Top International Scores (through Dec. 2013)
    1. Ashley WAGNER, Trophee Eric Bompard (194.37)
    2. Gracie GOLD, Skate Canada (186.65)
    3. Karen CHEN, JGP Slovakia (179.08) - JR in U.S.
    4. Mirai NAGASU, Rostelecom Cup (175.37)
    5. Christina GAO, Skate Canada (173.69)
    6. Samantha CESARIO, Trophee Eric Bompard (172.70)

    7. Courtney HICKS, U.S. Classic (171.88)
    8. Polina EDMUNDS, JGP Mexico (171.21) - 113.51 at JGPF is new ISU PB FS
    9. Amber GLENN, JGP Czech Republic (164.18) - JR in U.S.
    10. Agnes ZAWADZKI, Rostelecom Cup (163.21)
    11. Ashley CAIN, Nebelhorn Trophy (162.39)
    12. Angela WANG, JGP Czech Republic (155.87)

    13. Mariah BELL, JGP Mexico (153.17)
    14. Vanessa LAM, Finlandia Trophy (152.28)
    15. Kiri BAGA, Coupe de Nice (150.48)
    16. Barbie LONG, JGP Slovakia (148.19)
    17. Tyler PIERCE, JGP Estonia (143.91) - JR in U.S.
    18. Yasmin SIRAJ, JGP Latvia (142.32)

    19. Rachael FLATT, Coupe de Nice (130.18)
    20. Hannah MILLER, JGP Estonia (128.20)
    21. Caroline ZHANG, Skate America (110.12)

    Re-posting the 12 Qualifiers for 2014 Nationals in Senior Ladies:

    Midwesterns top 4:
    1 Hannah Miller, Lansing SC 59.52 (1) 115.28 (1) 174.80
    2 Ashley Cain, Stars FSC of Texas 57.59 (3) 106.91 2) 164.50
    3 Barbie Long, Illinois Valley FSC 57.43 (4) 100.02 (3) 157.45
    4 Mariah Bell, Rocky Mountain FSC 57.59 2) 97.32 (4) 154.91

    Easterns top 4:
    1 Franchesca Chiera, Panthers FSC 57.27 (1) 115.51 (1) 172.78
    2 Kiri Baga, SC of Boston 54.31 (3) 97.53 (2) 151.84
    3 Joelle Forte, SC of New York 52.86 (4) 86.12 (3) 138.98
    4 Yasmin Siraj, SC of Boston (2) 56.95 81.98 (5) 138.93

    Pacific Coast top 4:
    1 Vanessa Lam, All Year FSC 53.66 (2) 100.94 (1) 154.60
    2 Rachael Flatt, St. Moritz ISC 51.61 (3) 96.62 (2) 148.23
    3 Leah Keiser, All Year FSC 56.92 (1) 89.71 (3) 146.63
    4 Caroline Zhang, All Year FSC (4) 51.11 82.83 (5) 133.94
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2014
  2. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Yuzuru, Medvedeva, T&M, Shibs, P&C

    I think she will place 1st or 2nd, depending on how Gold skates. Wagner will still be considered the stronger US lady for the Olympics though.
  3. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

    ^ 3rd isn't out of the question if someone else pulls it together...and in the event of a meltdown...OTP.

    Wagner is the favorite, sure, but she is not a shoo-in by any means.

    I do agree that even in the 3rd position Wagner will still be considered the top American of the field.
  4. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

    Skaters who can put down a clean short and long deserve a chance to go to Sochi!

    If Wagner/Gold skate like cra)(* and end up being sent, it will be a very boring and disappointing Nationals.

    (Although I can see why Wagner might be held up since she's the only US Ladies skater who has accomplished anything this season.)
  5. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

    Courtney Hicks (winning U.S. Senior B), Gracie Gold (medaling at Skate Canada and winning the SP over an essentially clean Lipnitskaya and Suzuki with a particularly great performance that I thought was well choreographed and performed even though many seem unable to get past their personal annoyance with the music she chose and I personally didn't like listening to it either), Polina Edmunds (winning 2 JGPs in blowouts with free skate performances technically comparable, at least in difficulty, with the top skaters in the world today, and qualifying for final with another perfect free skate there), Mirai Nagasu (medaling at Rostelecom Cup behind only Lipnitskaya and Kostner), and Karen Chen (also winning a JGP, beating 2 of the outstanding Russian "wonderbabies" in the process, and qualifying for final but had to withdraw) will be surprised to learn that they haven't accomplished "anything" this season. :rolleyes:

    It pisses me off when people are so rudely dismissive of skaters' accomplishments, so I'm not ashamed of rudely dismissing those posters. And if you weren't aware of those international accomplishments then maybe you should learn about them before making a rude comment like that.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2014
    Sasha'sSpins, mag, Stephanie and 3 others like this.
  6. jiejie

    jiejie Well-Known Member

    I think Wagner is going to win this fair and square, with Gold coming in silver position. Had Gold moved to Frank Carroll over the summer and started out with better programs so now only in refinement mode, I might predict a switch in 1-2 position, but I don't think it will happen for Gracie this year.

    Based on how they have been skating (nothing to do with my personal likes/dislikes), my bronze medal pick is between Hicks and Cesario. If Nagasu is on one of her up days, she could sneak in for a bronze but my guess is she will end up 5th. Zawadski and Gao for 6th and 7th, they just are having their issues and I don't see them getting them resolved regardless of training adjustments or sports psychology sessions. 8th through 10th Cain, Edmunds, Miller in any order. 11-13 Wang, Lam, and first-timer Chiera in some order and the rest of the field after that. I doubt if Flatt will rank above #15 and I expect Zhang will end up at or near the bottom. Nothing against these last two skaters, it's just that this year's Senior Ladies' field seems to be overall stronger than recent past years, so I think the lack of technical firepower will cause them to sink in the tide. Siraj who ranked highly last year, has just not been the same skater this season and could end up in the lowest scoring group unless something miraculous has happened over the last 6 weeks.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2014
  7. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Yuzuru, Medvedeva, T&M, Shibs, P&C

    This is exactly what's wrong with selecting an Olympic team based on only the nationals. Anyone can have a really good or a really bad day, and the Olympic spot should not be determined by that. The goal for any fed is to place as high as possible at the Olympics (preferably at the top of the podium, or at least on the podium). To some extent I can even justify some manipulation to PCS to make sure the best skaters are on the team.
  8. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

    But there has never been an instance where a U.S. lady who was heavily favored in the way Wagner is this year has failed to make the Olympic team. Flatt in 2010; Cohen in 2006; Kwan in 2006, 2002, 1998; Kerrigan in 1994 and the list goes on...it just doesn't happen and it won't this year either.
  9. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    I think the poster meant that the top US Senior Ladies this season with the exception of Ashley have been underwhelming this year and she is right. Gracie, Agnes, Christina and to a certain extent Mirai have not been skating that well this year. Polinda and Karen Chen are Juniors.
    RFOS and (deleted member) like this.
  10. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

    I'm not surprised you would agree since you always seem to take a negative attitude in just about every post I've ever seen from you. FYI, Polina (not Polinda) is competing as a Senior at Nationals and is age-eligible, so she is in the running for an Olympic spot (at least officially, regardless of what you think of her statistically chances of getting one-- but if she skates her free skate as well as she has been all season and skates a good short program also, I'd say she's definitely in the hunt).
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2014
  11. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

    No, that compromises the integrity of the event (to be honest, they seem to already do this to some extent).
  12. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

  13. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

    I hope the judging and Olympic Team selection process is fair also! But as we know, there's a lot of subjectivity in what's "fair."
  14. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Yuzuru, Medvedeva, T&M, Shibs, P&C

    The third spot is available for anyone that skates well enough to place that high. However, dropping Ashley and Gracie (both) from the team would be disastrous, if they place 4th & 5th. Those are the ones with podium potential in Sochi. The fed is going to first think of what's best for the USA, whether it's fair or not. Of course if one of the other skaters actually wins the US title, the fed is bound by the rules to select that skater. It's a tall order for the three skaters you mentioned, but if that happens, it will still leave the USFSA the option to select two skaters for the other two spots, and I believe they will pick Ashley and Gracie, regardless of how anyone skates.
  15. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

    I'm not so totally sure that would happen. After all, Abbott almost surely would've been considered to have more potential to place high at Worlds than Miner the year he lost to Miner for the 3rd place by a tiny fraction of a point overall, but Ross was still selected and went to Worlds. We'll just have to wait and see, to a certain extent all this endless speculation is getting really tiresome for me (even though I often like considering all of the possible outcomes of things, sometimes I have to laugh a little bit at certain wildly speculative threads and posts on the board).
  16. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

    and is that fair?, is that ethical?

    that's why I said it would be a boring and disappointing Nationals if Wagner and/or Gold have mediocre skates compared to more deserving skaters, but are still sent to Sochi by USFS.

    but you are right, it most probably will happen regardless of how anyone else skates.........
  17. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

    Not for the Olympics. The rules for Olympic team selection are different from world team selection and very specifically do not require that the champion be named to the team, in order to protect USFS's rights to the event by not making them official Olympic trials.

    That said, there is virtually no chance that a skater who wins Nationals would not be chosen for the Olympic team. Unless they're not eligible because of citizenship or because of age (in which case they also can't go to Worlds).
  18. Skittl1321

    Skittl1321 Well-Known Member

    Luckily, the criteria doesn't require selection only on nationals.

    It would need to be an extraordinary case for it not to be nationals though. I would think if Wagner bombs, she would still be named to the team. I don't think that happens for anyone else though, including Gold.
  19. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

    I wouldn't put Abbott and Wagner in the same category. With a few mistakes by the front runners Wagner could be on the podium. IMHO, it would take a meltdown of epic proportions for Abbott to get to the World or Olympic podiums. He also has never had two seasons in a row like Ashley has had the last two seasons.
  20. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

    Totally agree. Using Marai as an example...on any given day she can be fabulous. It is just that you never know which Marai is going to show up on which day. The star one or the sulky one. I think those spots need to go to skaters who have proven their ability and consistent results. (And I don't mean consistent jumps....I mean top finishes).
  21. overedge

    overedge Janny uber

    Why not? The Olympics is a single event, just like Nationals. The skaters at Nationals have to be able to produce at that particular time, in that particular place, which is exactly what they have to do at the Olympics.

    I can't. "Best" is extremely subjective.
  22. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

    If Mirai finished 3rd or better at Nationals, I'd send her for sure. No one other than Ashley has made a compelling case to be sent to Sochi without a National medal. They have all had mixed results, no so much better than Mirai, and Mirai still has probably the 3rd best scoring potential behind Ashley and Gracie.
  23. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Yuzuru, Medvedeva, T&M, Shibs, P&C

    I used to think that too, but when I considered the pov of the fed, I saw that their goal is to win medals, or at least place as high as possible. So they select skaters that would give them the best chance to medal at the Olympics.

    The US nationals really determine just one spot- the winner goes to the Olympics (or worlds, in the non-Olympic years). The fed has enough flexibility in the rules to select non-medal winners from nationals, but that rarely happens for PR reasons. There will be cries of unfairness. When Michelle Kwan was selected without competing at the nationals, over the bronze medal winner Emily Hughes, there was a huge uproar of 'poor Emily was robbed'. Kwan gave them a better chance of winning a medal so that's who they chose. It was fair, according to the rules. When a lesser skater than Kwan is selected without a podium finish, I can just imagine how big the uproar will be, and yet it is within the rules.

    They will make it easier on themselves by changing the rules to include other competitions, so an outsider won't believe that the s- and B- winners from nationals were robbed. Their rules need to support their goals without causing controversy.
  24. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    It's Mirai. :p
  25. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

    ^ that's a good point - the fed is probably "between a rock and a hard place" when it comes to these kinds of issues. It would be in their best interests to select team members based on overall readiness and strength, regardless of nationals results; yet if they did so, many in the mainstream media would cry foul. And if they simply go down the nationals results, potentially leaving off a stronger competitor who just had a rough skate, they damage their chances (and some might argue reputation) on the international stage.

    Still, I don't remember the whole MK-Hughes deal being this big scandal or anything. I do remember many skatefans raising eyebrows, though.
  26. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    If USFS has definite guidelines like the Japanese federation or the Chinese federation then non-medalist can go to Sochi without causing a fuss. But I don't think that will happen -- the nationals deciding all tradition is too strong.
    I think one comp decides all is fine as long as the nationals is well judged and the caller and judges are not being lenient on urs and levels and things
  27. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

    I don't remember a huge uproar at all. I remember some online Kwan detractors calling her a hypocrite because she made a big deal out of not asking for an injury bye at 1998 nationals saying she wanted to earn her spot fairly and then asked for a bye in 2006. But huge uproar? Not at all!
  28. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

    IIRC, the biggest 'uproar' was from the Hugheses. :rolleyes:
  29. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

    ??? I don't recall.
  30. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

    I don't recall either. I was not a fan of either Hughes skater but I don't remember them making any fuss. I'd ask the poster to provide a link validating they made an uproar but I suspect such a request would be ignored anyway. :p
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