The next LADIES OLY Champion..expected or surprise this season?

AngieNikodinovLove

Frangi & Piazza & Paul & Hektor & Theo. Oh My! 😝
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In 98 Kwan was expected to win the Oly title and Tara snuck in and won.

In 02 Kwan and Irina were expected to win with Kwan having the advantage. Sarah snuck in from nowhere and won.

In 06 Sasha and Irina were expected to win. Shizuka came in and won.

In 10 this is where I saw the expected skater winning. Yuna.

In 14 Yuna or Mao were or even Lip were expected winners. Adelina came in and won.

Of the last 5 Oly cycles only once did the expected skater win.

How do you feel about this coming cycle? Can Caro sneak in? Or a Canuck (maybe Osmond, Daleman)? What about someone like Mihara? One of the new senior Russians?

The element of surprise can be nice.... Kwan was dominating leading up to that 98 cycle.... and Tara got in there. In this case Tara had a World title to her credit as did Shizuka... but Sarah and Adelina had no word titles/medals.
 
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Marco

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In 98, Tara was the reigning world champ and GPF champ, so I suppose she was a co-fave even if she lost to Michelle at Nationals.

Evgenia has just been so solid this season and widening the gap between her and others behind her in the past 2 years. And unlike Sochi and Adelina, there isn't a Korean skater good enough to take enough home crowd adv to sneak ahead I don't think. Still, ice is slippery and I would love an exciting competition of good skating. If Kaetlyn shows some consistently strong skating this coming season, we will see if her PCS can rise in time.
 

alchemy void

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Current betting odds by me. :COP:

Medvedeva EVEN
Osmond 8-1
Daleman 20-1
Miyahara 25-1
Higuchi 30-1
Zagitova 35-1
Chen 40-1
Kostner 40-1
Miahara 45-1
Choi 50-1
Wagner 50-1
Pogo 60-1
Radionova 70-1
So Youn Kim 75-1
Turzy 80-1
Gold 90-1
Sotskova 95-1
 
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VGThuy

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I think it's interesting that in 2006 and 2014, the eventual OGM winner did not dominate the GP series prior to the Olympics although both skaters managed to medal at both of their events with Sotnikova qualifying for the GPF and placing fifth there. We can talk about other factors helping those two get the OGM-contender scores necessary to be in a position to "upset", but maybe the 2018 OGM may follow suit. Or maybe they'll be like a Yuna Kim and just dominate all season leading up to the Olympics (thinking about Med).
 

AngieNikodinovLove

Frangi & Piazza & Paul & Hektor & Theo. Oh My! 😝
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Current betting odds by me. :COP:

Medvedeva EVEN
Osmond 8-1
Daleman 20-1
Miyahara 25-1
Higuchi 30-1
Zagitova 35-1
Chen 40-1
Kostner 40-1
Miahara 45-1
Choi 50-1
Wagner 50-1
Wagner 60-1
Radionova 70-1
So Youn Kim 75-1
Turzy 80-1
Gold 90-1
Sotskova 95-1

LOLLL, CREATIVE!!!!
 

DimaToe

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If Medvedeva doesn't do her usual in PyeongChang I really can't see any of the current senior stepping up to the opportunity, and those that might step up (like Miyahaya if she makes the team) might still not be rewarded enough. If Medvedeva isn't Olympic champion I'd go with one of the new seniors like Zagitova or Honda winning it a la Sotnikova.
 

Winnipeg

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Tara did not sneak in IMHO. She won and I was not surprised although I felt that either Tara or MIchelle were contenders depending on who skated their best that day.

Hughes snuck in. Her program was boring, lacked musicality but nonetheless she definitely landed it and deserved to win based on her performance and mistakes by others on that day.

I think the World podium will repeat at the 2018 Olys (for the ladies)
 

leafygreens

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I think the Olympic judges enjoy wielding their power, playing God, and toying with the favorites. The only exception is Yuna in 2010, who was so fabulous she could not be denied.
 

yurokis40

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i think Osmond will be a lot stronger in her lp's this season I predict, however beating Evgenia will be difficult she is so consistent, anyway my Olympic podium already includes both of them everyone else fighting for bronze.
 

Areski

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Current betting odds by me. :COP:

Medvedeva EVEN
Osmond 8-1
Daleman 20-1
Miyahara 25-1
Higuchi 30-1
Zagitova 35-1
Chen 40-1
Kostner 40-1
Miahara 45-1
Choi 50-1
Wagner 50-1
Wagner 60-1
Radionova 70-1
So Youn Kim 75-1
Turzy 80-1
Gold 90-1
Sotskova 95-1

You repeated Wagner's odds 50-1 & 60-1. And where are Perkova's odds? :cheer:


Either way I am going to be shocked with anyone else winning other than Medvedeva. I remember people expecting downfall from Medvedeva after last year but she managed to have even better season. I don't expect her to get worse and people should be accustomed to that by now (even the biggest detractors).
 
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alchemy void

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You repeated Wagner's odds. And where are Perkova's odds? :cheer:


Either way I am going to be shocked with anyone else winning other than Medvedeva. I remember people expecting downfall from Medvedeva after last year but she managed to have even better season.

Thanks, Wagner no. 2 was supposed to be Pogo. Fixed in original post. :)

I was tempted to put Leonova in Gold territory, but that list are all the skaters I think could win gold, even under crazy circumstances. Alena could maybe grab a bronze, but not gold. See, everyone, I'm reasonable!
 

liv

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I would love it if someone won over Medvedeva. I say that not because of any dislike of Med, but rather because it would mean someone skated so perfectly, a once in a lifetime kind of skate, that the judges had to go with her even over the consistent Evgenia. I want a really exciting competition, rather than the almost foregone conclusion many people think it will be. Last year was very predictable... give me unpredictable.
 

Areski

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673
Thanks, Wagner no. 2 was supposed to be Pogo. Fixed in original post. :)

I was tempted to put Leonova in Gold territory, but that list are all the skaters I think could win gold, even under crazy circumstances. Alena could maybe grab a bronze, but not gold. See, everyone, I'm reasonable!


:) Can you imagine da Schott with Olympic Medal btw.? :cheer: @Jeschke :glamor:
 

Bellanca

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A completely healthy Miyahara or a completely solid AND healthy Osmond, ditto Gold, if she can make the team. Any of these ladies, and a couple not mentioned, could pull off the upset. The conditions would have to be just right, but when I see or hear the word 'coronate'... :shuffle:
 

Karpenko

Not Impressed.
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Yeah I feel you there, but it's Janny.

I mean the crown is already in the process of being bedazzled with swarovski crystals and bling. :glamor: and her throne will be custom made with a drink holder. :summer:
 

SkateFanBerlin

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Not a fan, but Med is a shoe in unless something negative creeps in this season - physical change, injury. After that it becomes interesting. I think Ashley is running out of gas. And, Caro does not have the juice fight off aggressive young competitors. Sadly, I don't think the clouds will clear sufficiently for Gracie to give an Olympic performance. It remains quiet in the Myahara camp; I think her injuries will take her out of it. I don't think any of the new babies (Miahara, Hyguchi, Z., Marin) will be a serious threat. They look juniorish. Even more so than Hughes in 2002. And technically they are not so far ahead as Hughes was. If Marai come with a LP as sophisticated as her short she would have the goods. But performance problems hold her back. Chen too inexperienced and inconsistent. Daleman, unless something is happening now, doesn't have enough sophistication in her programs to compete at Oly level.

Who's left? Pogo will buck up and roar through the competition to medal. Osmond will carefully work her way through the season focusing on the LP. It won't be a ground shaking skate but a good enough one. She'll edge Pogo for the silver.
 

Vash01

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Tara was the reigning world champion when she competed at the 98 Olympics, but somehow she was considered an underdog (by a big margin). Michelle had looked unbeatable that season, so most people overlooked Tara. They shouldn't have.

In 2018 there will be many contenders, but it will take two perfect skates to beat Medvedeva. I see Osmond, Wagner, Gold, and one of the Japanese ladies as contenders. I think Osmond has the best chance, as the reigning world silver medalist, but Daleman could surprise everyone.
 

quartz

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I like Janny. Not a huge fan of her programs, but I certainly agree she's the one to beat. Which to me, makes things really interesting because she's been so far ahead of the pack for so long and how much longer can one skater sustain that momentum? There is still a lot of skating to be done before we even get to the Olympics and so many things could happen. :COP: :blocjudge :sekret:

However, I luuuurve to root for the underdogs and the dark horses. And what makes it so fun and interesting, is that there is not just one or two potential threats to the top of the podium, there are several. I think the Ladies event is going to be the biggest nail biter of all the disciplines. :watch:

I have so many ladies I love right now that there needs to be ten spots on that podium - but if Osmond is anywhere on it, I will be happy.

Wheeeeee!! :cheer2: :respec: :drama: :cheer: :glamor:
 
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AngieNikodinovLove

Frangi & Piazza & Paul & Hektor & Theo. Oh My! 😝
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Tara was the reigning world champion when she competed at the 98 Olympics, but somehow she was considered an underdog (by a big margin). Michelle had looked unbeatable that season, so most people overlooked Tara. They shouldn't have.

In 2018 there will be many contenders, but it will take two perfect skates to beat Medvedeva. I see Osmond, Wagner, Gold, and one of the Japanese ladies as contenders. I think Osmond has the best chance, as the reigning world silver medalist, but Daleman could surprise everyone.

Agreed.

In 98 I had a feeling Tara would win the Olys and I myself considered her an equal to Michelle for winning.

Michelle had that magical free program that year that no one could stop talking about, Lyra Angelica. And she also had won the USA Nats. I think a lot of the World was giving the edge to Michelle too. But Tara is the ultimate competitor. She went in there and got it DONE!!!

I swear the two times Michelle tightened up were 98 and 02 Olys. :(
 

Marco

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I think a perfect Daleman is dangerous to Medvedeva if Medvedeva does not continue to be perfect because their skating is in sharp contrast to one another but still the highest quality.

I love Daleman and Osmond in different ways. They to me are the better Slute and Kwan. Daleman is the athletic one but also has the refinement that Slute didn't have/ show. Osmond is the beautiful one but also has the technical goods to contend with the top.

I hope the Olympic podium will have a RUS, a CAN and a JPN. I don't want two RUS on the podium unless one of them is Pogorilaya. I would love it if either Daleman or Osmond made it to the podium, same for Mihara and Honda.

I think Wagner's run is over (if there ever was one). Her consistency has gone downhill and the UR issues have returned in full. She will still make the team because the others simply can't overtake her body of work.
 

Karpenko

Not Impressed.
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Re: Michelle/Tara I really don't want to go there again.. but the difference between Michelle and Janny (other than Michelle being glorious to watch, at all times, and without any mime or sound effects) is that Michelle wasn't head and shoulders score-wise above the rest, and 6.0 majorly leveled the playing field (especially if you screw up). Not this time.

ITA on the Osmond = Sasha Cohen comparison. The difference is, Osmond is a lovely personality who isn't a diva in the slightest, is always super nice and lovely all of the time, and her huge jumps and speed = Sasha's :sasha1: but hopefully she'll start hitting clean long programs. It's really hard wanting to tug my hair out and throw a pillow every time she finishes a long program. (except for Worlds. She did it sort of-ish.)

Im intrigued by Karen Chen working with Misha. I'm counting her out as a medalist right now, but who knows she really has all of the goods to make it happen.
 

alchemy void

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I think Osmond is good enough to be very dangerous to Medvedeva, and I fully expect (and hope) :saint: Skate Canada will
be politicking overtime for her. :skandal

However, I think Tubertidze and Janny are smart enough to realize this, an will show up next season with something new to set her apart even more: either a new jump trick (goodbye 2a2t2t please) and/or amazing "Olympic" programs.
 

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