Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Oct 9, 2011.
Who will medal in the final JGP?
1 Risa SHOJI JPN
2 Samantha CESARIO USA
3 Gracie GOLD USA
4 Anna SHERSHAK RUS (her lack of a loop, flip and lutz could hurt her here more than it did in Italy)
I think you've got it right, Jenna but I really hope Cesario can pull off a gold medal win here. She's the total package IMO other than a 3/3 but Shoji is just SOOO good.
I agree, but Shoji is really good! Her FS in Brisbane should have won her the gold medal, IMO. Also, Gracie Gold could be a huge spoiler here. If she hits her 3-3 and other jumps she could be a contender for the gold as well.
Gracie wins Gold... heh... what a pun!
1.) Risa Shoji
2.) Samantha Cesario
3.) Gracie Gold
and then Shershak probably in 4th. She's lovely but I don't think a 4 triple FS will be enough to land her on the podium in this deep field. I think if Risa can skate clean/almost clean and manage to avoid URs (or even if she gets just 1 or 2), then she will likely win. But if she has a few to several URs then maybe she will finish 2nd, or possibly 3rd. Gracie is a great talent but idk if her PCS will be comparable to Samantha and Risa, in addition to being an international unknown, from what I've seen of her skating, she seems to be mostly a technician at this point. But she certainly is very talented. Samantha appeared to be in great form in Poland, but I wonder if her lack of a 3-3 could prevent her from winning gold. We shall see. I expect it will be an exciting and close competition btwn the 3 ladies I predicted to be on the podium.
Also, with Hicks withdrawal, Miyahara's 5th place, and Gold's not being eligible, Risa and Samantha likely have a little more leeway in what they need to make the final. For example, I think if Samantha is 2nd and Risa is 3rd they should both still qualify. Although I guess Shershak has a chance now too, although I don't really see her finishing higher than 4th here, and if Risa and Samantha can both manage a 2 and a 3 finish, then they'd qualify ahead of Korobeinikova with 2 and 4 and Shershak should she finish 4th here.
Looks like I am the only one who voted for Yuki Nishino. I really liked her skating on YT.
I love her too but there's two problems with selecting her for a podium finish:
1. She's horribly inconsistent
2. Lots of UR problems (I believe her last four jumps were all underrotated in Austria)
Wow! Gracie Gold gets to compete. I didn't know that ....
Shershak has a shot, but only if Shoji/Cesario has problems. I voted for Gold, but we haven't seen her in actual (international) competition just yet. She does look VERY promising, tho.
Go for the Gold, Sammy!!!
^I was curious to know why several of you are putting Gracie Gold behind Cesario, Shershak and Shoji. Does her skating lack in some way? Just curious. Thanks,
Her skating is a little boring. Her technical is awesome and if she skates two clean programs, she may just win. Based on the other jgps, being boring is okay
I think it will be between Gold, Shoji and Cesario. If one of them will make mistakes or URs then Shershak will have a chance. Gold can even win it, but we still have to see what international judges will say about her.
BTW, I really don't understand US logic. They gave Cain second JGP and didn't give Miller who really deserved it. And now Gold is going to JGP without any chance for a final, but if she beats Cesario and Shoji places 1-2 then Samantha will not qualify to the final either. I do think Gold deserves a spot, but they should have sent her earlier
FYI, there has been plenty of lively discussion on this topic in the US JGP Assignments thread : http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=77233&page=17
(I don't think it would have been logistically possible to send Miller to Estonia even if she had won the gold in Milan because of the events being back-to-back.)
I think for a few reasons:
1.) This will be her 1st international competition ever, so a certain level of nerves is to be expected and that might affect her performance here (think Agnes in the SP at JW '10 and Courtney in the SP at JW '11)
2.) Related to number 1, she's an no-name internationally which could hurt her PCS (though this hasn't seemed to be the case for other strong skaters in the same situation this season)
3.) At least to me, her skating is a little boring and all-business. She's a great technician, but from what I've seen, the competition (Cesario, Shoji, Shershak) has her beat from an artistic standpoint, and Shoji especially and Cesario also have the tech to back it up.
It's hard to predict who will win, but I hope they all bring their A games because if they do it should make for a very exciting competition!
Wow, I don't think Gracie is boring at all! Her jumps are huge, and I think in her FS especially, she shows off her great basics and her long, elegant arms and legs.
I think nerves/reputation could hurt her as Pinky mentioned, but I still think she is a serious medal contender.
Err, does someone really think Schweinbacher has a chance in hell of winning a medal?
1. Gracie GOLD USA
2. Risa SHOJI JPN
3. Samantha CESARIO USA
Shoji (26) and Cesario (22) into the JGPF (Cesario would beat Korobeynikova & Agafonova on the points tiebreak, methinks).
Just watched her programs again, I do like the FS a lot. Her SP is nice, but I don't know if Sugar Plum Fairy is the best vehicle for a powerful skater like Gracie. I still think if Risa is clean she can win though, but maybe I'm biased because I just love her skating/style (Arakawa reincarnated ). I also like Samantha a lot too though and her huge jumps, and Anna. So however the results pan out, I'll be happy. I just hope Risa and Samantha can both make the final. Anna is so young that she'll have many other chances.
No, Cesario would not qualify. Korobeynikova would qualify over Cesario because she is ahead on the first tiebreaker - a higher finish. Her silver in Romania would outrank Cesario's two bronze medals.
I agree, however, with your predictions.
As much as I adore, Polina K. I'm really hoping that does not happen. I think that's a silly tiebreak rule to begin with - points over placements, please. Some fields are deeper than others. Samantha was placed in, arguably, the two deepest fields of the entire JGP series.
This is Cesario's last shot, and with everything she's been through in the past 12 months, this would be a really awesome break for her - lots of WR points so she could possibly get a Senior GP next year.
Well let's just hope Samantha is 1st or 2nd then, because even if Risa is 3rd, they'd both be in the final and Polina K would be 1st alternate. And I'm not so convinced Gracie is going to win it all, I like her, but Cesario and Shoji are really good too and have more international experience. But even if Gracie does win, both Risa and Samantha will be in if Samantha is 2nd and Risa 3rd. Or Risa could win and Samantha come in 2nd and Gracie 3rd and then they'd both be in too. Or Samantha wins and Gracie is 2nd and Risa 3rd, or Samantha wins and Risa is 2nd and Gracie 3rd. There are lots of ways both girls can get to the final. I guess it gets trickier if Shershak manages to medal though...
In the bottom part of the post, there are some scenarios concerning Risa, Samantha and Anna medaling and where that would put them in the JGPF
Interesting that Gracie Gold isn't considered a "potential spoiler" factor.
For those who may not have watched Gold's videos from the 2011 summer competition season...
Skate Detroit SP (56.58): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjTDnBzu3SQ
Skate Detroit FS Final (109.62): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEG7zOTuiSU
Gold sometimes will make mistakes in her SP (including when she won her Novice pewter medal at 2010 Nationals); it has been her free skates this summer where she has really been consistent, scoring 99-100+ points 6 different times by my count.
Like I said I think she'll medal but Samantha and Risa are also both capable of and usually post FS scores in the same range, so if they all skate well, who knows what will happen.
Shershak was clean in her FS in Milan and her PCS were quite high (though deserved, I think potentially they could be a few points lower here just due to there being different judges who might not hand out big PCS so handily as they did in Milan), so she's looking at 100 points max if she's totally clean and gets really high PCS again, realistically it could be more low-mid 90s.
Risa and Samantha both scored just over 100 for the FS at their last events. For Risa that was with 2 UR triples, an edge call, one level 3 spin that was probably meant to be level 4, and only 2 combos. And her PCS there were lower than what she's gotten at some other junior international events before, so if totally clean, she could probably score around 110 (she scored 106+ last year in the Czech Skate JGP with an edge call, 1 UR triple, and a level 3 spin). Also she does not always get edge calls, so it is possible it won't get called here.
For Samantha, that score was with 1 UR triple, an edge call, and a level 2 spin and a level 1 spin that were probably meant to be level 4s. Her PCS were quite high and the only comparison we have is her one JGP last season where her PCS were much lower. So again, if she's totally clean, probably around 110 points, even though her flutz will undoubtedly get an edge call.
So this is why I have trouble saying that I think Gold will definitely win if she skates well. She could, but her chances are about as good as Cesario or Shoji's, and maybe not even as good because she's an unknown competing at her first international event. And though she's been very consistent this summer, she didn't qualify for nationals last season after all, so I'm wary of her consistency at big-deal events right now.
Oops, I meant that Korobyenikova would qualify since her 2nd+4th would beat Samantha's 3rd+3rd place finishes.
I think this will be the biggest factor. She's an unknown coming in at the very last competition of the season. This is Risa's second year on the JGP, 4th at the JGPF and 5th at junior worlds. Her reputation will more than likely be considered when it comes to her scoring. I'd say she's the favorite coming into this...
Samantha had a good showing and a medal at her first event so that will help her case. Anna will probably receive a little push from the judges if she does well b/c of her results last week.
I think Gracie is good but her lack of time in front of the judges will hurt her, especially if everyone else skates very well. If Risa and Samantha make big mistakes that will open the door for Gracie. But if it comes down to everyone skating well, I don't think the judges will give her gold here...
Then again, I could be (and probably am) wrong...
Lack of reputation didn't hurt Lipnitskaia or Miyahara at their first events, it didn't hurt Sotnikova last season as well. I think reputation is more important in seniors, but at JGP it's possible to get high scores if you skate really well even if the judges see you for the first time.
This is true, but they also had great results at their respective nationals whereas Gracie was not even at nationals last season. I'm more worried she skates really nervously and makes mistakes because it's her first international event, not so much that her PCS are going to blow, though if she does skate nervously and make mistakes, they might not be that high.
I see this situation as very similar to the one in Austria where 3 very talented skaters, Lam, Li, and Agafonova, each with their own strengths but essentially evenly matched, were vying for the gold. In Austria these 3 ladies all ended up on the podium, and who won gold ended up coming down to who skated a clean FS (Lam) that day.
I think arguably the 3 frontrunners here, Cesario, Shoji, and Gold, are maybe even a little stronger than the 3 frontrunners in Austria, but I wouldn't be surprised if the placements come down to who skates the best FS (or if someone takes herself out of the running in the SP) like they did there. Shershak is like the Sato or Kulgeyko in Austria, she has a chance to spoil and land on the podium/win, but I don't really expect her to. That being said, I didn't think Lam was going to win in Austria because her jumps are tiny and she has no 3-3, but she did because she has all the other qualities and skated a clean FS which the other ladies couldn't manage (and this really was the case because the PCS among the top 3 were all comparable).
It's sort of a similar situation here, Risa is elegant and has difficult tech content but smallish jumps, Samantha has comparable elegance and huge jumps but not the most difficult content, Gracie also has huge jumps and difficult content but IMO is not nearly as elegant or polished as the other two. I assume the PCS will be comparable if all 3 skate well so I think it will really come down to execution in deciding who the winner is.