Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Sep 10, 2011.
Predikt the medallions!
Glad you obliged! Many thanks
Gold Lipnitskaya, Silver Cesario, Bronze Simancikova
That was my thinking too! Although I think Simancikova winning bronze is more of a wish than an actual prediction on my part. More likely it will be Dinh or maybe Tuurkilla. But Monika is just gorgeous to watch IMO and even though she's inconsistent, she does have all the goods to medal at this event (the field is not quite as deep as Riga or Brisbane), so I hope she delivers, she's currently my favorite OES, I love her long balletic lines and musicality . I'm hoping Samantha doesn't get dinged with tons of URs like last year, I really like her too, and her new programs.
I went with
1 Lipnitskaya RUS
2 Cesario USA
3 Dinh USA
But Dinh is very inconsistent. Miyahara, Turkila, or Simancikova could get in there. I don't think Cesario will be dinged with URs again unless she gets nervous and becomes conservative. Her jumps at liberty were huge and beautiful.
Lipnitskaya, Cesario, Miyahara
Never heard of/seen Miyahara. Another up-and-coming Japanese talent?
Satoko Miyahara finished 4th place twice (2009 and 2010) at Japanese Jr Nationals. She has all triples, 2A-3T and 3-3 and received no edge call so far. Miyahara is technically strong and pretty reliable in the FS. She has never scored lower than 50 points in TES at (national/local) junior competitions. The biggest question mark is the SP though.... The JSF is surely counting on her. Only Shoji and Miyahara are guaranteed two assignments.
planned jump layout
SP: 3F+3T 3Lz 2A
FS: 3Lz+3T 3Lo 3F 3S 2A+3T 3Lz+2T+2Lo 2A
My choice exactly
Satoko Miyahara performed her SP (tango from "Scent of a Woman") in exhibition last month in Korea: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2TgU0lW81w
I believe these are Julia Lipnitskaya's programs from the recent Russian test skate:
Samantha Cesario's programs at the Liberty competition in mid-July:
Kristina Zaseeva's FS (scored 90+) from the Moscow Open last week: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy3BJENTy-k
Kate Charbonneau's Senior programs from a Minnesota competition last month:
Here's a good Jr. FS by Lauren Dinh in a club competition in Sept. 2010: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPdH5uNCMzc
Juulia Turkkila's programs from her 2011 Worlds debut:
Monica Simancikova's FS (scored 90+) from the European Winter Olympic Youth Festival in February 2011: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hb2Y7gedwac
I think it will finish 1. Lipnitskaya 2. Turkkila 3. Charbonneau
Dinh skated pretty badly at Liberty and is extremely inconsistent. Her best performance was at US junior nationals. Cesario only scored 122.39 in last years JGP. However, upon her return from injury she skated very well at Liberty, but I think its too soon to be saying that she will get into the top 3. Nevertheless, I may be wrong. I don't know too much about Miyahara except that she finished 4th in junior Japanese nationals 2 years running. Again, I don't think she will make the top 3, but I may be wrong. That's the problem with predicting juniors - a lot of them are unknown quantities with not too much data to go on.
Cesario, Lipnitskaya, and Miyahara, with Simancikova, Turkkila and Dinh rounding out the top 6.
Lipnitskaya is going to own every single one of them.
I'll be shocked if Julia does poorly here. I know it's her first competition, but she looked great in those test skates.
Please don't jinx her
Zaseeva has certainly, erm, developed. No wonder her jumps are shaky right now.
I was gonna say she looks like Katarina Witt! She got so tall and curvaceous since last season. Still though, some of her triples get great height.
Is she attempting more triples than toe and sal in this season's programs? I know she is capable of all triples in practice, but last season she only did 3t and 3s in her competitive programs. I wonder the same thing about Monika who was only attempting 3t, 3s, and 3lo last season. If both girls only go for 2lz in the SP, that could hurt their chances of medaling, even if in the FS they include all the other types of triples.
You are referring to Julia Lipnitskaya right? She's competed triples through lutz for a couple of seasons already and her test skates posted further upthread show her most recent clean skates. She has a 3t-3t in the SP and two 2x-3t combo's in the free, the first with a 2t on the end plus all the other triples apart from axel.
Julia did 3T+3T, 3Lz and 2A in her SP, and two 2A+3T combos in her LP. She has all the triples.
As far as I remember, her jumps were shaky last season too.
Katarina had more stability.
On the subject of inconsistency..have you seen Kate Charbonneau's track record?
No I was refering to Tuurkilla sorry! Their names are spelt different I think I just read that post incorrectly. Julia (Russian) has all her triples, Juulia (Finnish) was only attempting 3t and 3s last season, but reportedly does all her triples in practice.
I think she is trying to add 3R ans 3T-3T this season.
I think she probably has landed all triples in practice but I doubt they're consistent - otherwise she could just try adding them all to her programs. I'd guess it's more of a "sometimes lands them in practice" case.
The result of the ladies event was as follows:-
1st Julia Lipnitskaya - 172.51 - RUS
2nd Satoko Miyahara - 162.20 - JPN
3rd Samantha Cesario - 153.84 - USA
4th Miu Sato - 135.60 - JPN
5th Kate Charbonneau - 128.66 - CAN
Turkkila only attempted 3S and 3T at JGP Baltic Cup, so no they're not consistent enough to be put in her programs.
Delivered jumps: 3T+2T, 2S+2T, 2A, 3S, 2A (fall), 1T, 2Lo+2T+2Lo
Maybe the 2lo was meant to be a 3lo though?
I don't think so. It's her very last jump element, and she does it 'tano-style and in a three jump combination. If she was planning on doing a 3Lo, she should do it in the beginning as a solo jump.