Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by hertmirsh, Nov 2, 2013.
Who at this point would you favor for the ice dancing bronze at the Sochi Olympics.
I voted for Weaver & Poje. I really see the likelihood right now though as W/P > C/L > I/k = B/S > P/B.
That's a huge improvement from the mess they had last season, but I saw her sit on his shoulder twice, which is an illegal move.
It's way too early to call it for W&P. C&L have only competed once. I&K haven't competed at all (of course, they always have to be the last to debut, ugh). P&B haven't shown their FD yet, and B&S just changed two programs. W&P are coming off their second international of the season which was a home event... they're much more polished at this point. Time will tell how those scores hold up.
It will be Weaver & Poje if they skate cleanly but I have a feeling they will make a silly mistake like they often do and hand the bronze to the Italians on a silver or should I say bronzed platter. W&P will then come back to win a bronze at the Worlds, or higher if one of D&W or V&M go into retirement a month early.
I loved watching Pechalat/Borzat at COC. It was my second favourite free this season behind V/M. The Italians have two special programs.
I really liked W/P SD but was not so keen on their free. B/S were such a let down in China, nothing special. The Shibs have a great skating quality
but their programs are nothing new.
So having not seen I/K yet I think P/B have the edge.
I think this poll is premature. We should at least wait until the GP series is finished and we've seen all of the competitors.
Why are Ilynyk & Katsapalov even on the poll? Let alone getting votes. Do people seriously think a team that was 9th at Worlds, and is only the #2 Russian (at a time the #1 Russian is nothing more than a possible bronze hopeful) is going to medal at the Olympics in ice dancing. No way.
B/S bombed even harder at Worlds 2012 - scoring 150 to I/K's 157 in 2013 and yet they bounced back to win bronze the following year. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that I/K can challenge, particularly as B/S are looking shaky so far this season.
Davis & White went from 4th in the 2009 Worlds to Olympic Silver one year later.
Domnina & Shabolin went from 6th or 7th in the 2006 Europeans to Silver the next year.
The Shibs went from Bronze in the 2011 Worlds down to 8th the next year. Can happen.
They have an amazing quality. They could be the leading Ice Dance team when V/M & D/W retire.
Well the Olympics and ice dancing are totally different. I cant think of a team in history that ever made a jump something similar to 9th to 3rd from a pre Olympic Worlds to the Olympics themselves in one year. The Shibutanis made their huge jump from the Olympic year to a post Olympic Worlds which is the other extreme, and that actually has happened quite a few times, even under 6.0 (eg- Duchensays 88 to 89, Navka & Kostomarov from 2002 to 2003, Torvill & Dean 80 to 81, Wilson & McCall 84 to 85); and is to be expected with teams retiring, a new pecking order, etc.... A Worlds to Worlds within a quadrennial is something between the two.
No reigning World Champion has ever missed an Olympic medal no matter how rubbish they skated at the Games themselves (F-P and Margalio in 2002 and DomShabs in 2010 for instance), and I believe the lowest pre Olympic Worlds finisher to ever medal at the Games was 5th the previous year. Well Klimova & Ponomarenko medalled in 84 having not even been at the 83 Worlds, but back then being on the Soviet team already automatically gave you a top 5 minimum ranking, and they were complete newcomers at that point. Anyway as much as I love them and consider them the best dance team in history, and though they did skate very well at those Games, it is obvious they were bloc judged to that particular medal over the majorly wuzrobbed Blumberg & Seibert who probably deserved the silver that year.
The technical side of I/k is so weak. Tough to see how they can really surge as any surge would need to come from that area. You can see how stubborn the pcs scoring is with p/b still ahead of b/s in pcs as p/b still have that third place spot locked up with the judges! So tech is where w/p or c/l can really break through to bronze in Sochi. P/b has to nail their tech to win Olympic bronze because Judges still think of them as third. I/k just don't have that tech ability and neither do b/s. Maybe one reason B/s don't have that third place pcs is because they were 4th in the fd and just barely won bronze. Didn't win bronze impressively just a shoulder shrug bronze.
And their FD was horrific especially compared to P/B's. Of course, I thought their FD last season was pretty bad too (and her posture drove me bananas), but at least they looked great and contemporary compared to the outdated look they have now.
Virtue and Moir.
I know it's no place to compare these two teams, cause they are incomparable by all standards, but Virtue and Moir won an even more of a shoulder shrug bronze in 2009 and yet they went on to become Olympic champions the next year. Not that it's going to happen with B/S, but I just don't see this fact as a direct reason for lower PCS.
Why is anyone complaining about P&B getting better PCS than B&S in China. B&S's programs were horrible, and they didnt even skate them well (while P&B atleast skated their FD extremely well). I totally disagree this somehow indicates P&B are still the clear 3rd in the judges eyes. If B&S improve their PCS they will probably be able to get similar or higher PCS than P&B atleast, and we havent seen P&B against a team like W&P yet.
I do agree the way B&S look now though they are unlikely to win the bronze in Sochi though, even on home ice. If the Russian fed. were wise they would look to try and push I&K as their #1 if they look good in their opening events, but they probably wont.
Who'll most likely get the levels: Weaver/Poje, Cappellini/Lanotte
GOES: All except B/S, thinking about it.
Who'll most likely get the PCS: I bet C/L will have the lowest PCS of this quintet
Who'll win the bronze: beats me.
I agree that B/S were awful at COC. I've seen free programs like that a hundred times over the past ten years. Nothing special. They are so much better than that.
I/K could benefit a be the Russian favourites come Sochi.