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Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by carriecmu0503, Aug 15, 2010.

  1. carriecmu0503

    carriecmu0503 Active Member

    I was just thinking:
    In 2006, Evan placed 4th in his first Olympics, coached by Frank Carroll while skating to Carmen. He went on to win his second Olympics in 2010.

    This bodes well for Mirai! Think about it: 4th in her first Olympics, coached by Frank Carroll skating to Carmen! She better not test the fate Gods and just plan to skate to Sheherezade in 2014!
  2. NMURA

    NMURA Active Member

    The next OG is in RUSSIA. This doesn't bode well for Frank Caroll's people.
    PeterG and (deleted member) like this.
  3. Japanfan

    Japanfan Well-Known Member

    So long as there is no Russian or European lady who has a legitimate shot at the Gold medal, it shouldn't make that much difference.

    During this next cycle I expect that Russia will focus on the development of dance and pair teams which can contend for a medal. They have always been strong in these fields but generally weak in ladies.

    And if any deals are going to be made and Mirai is a favourite for Gold, Russia might make a deal with the US.
  4. NMURA

    NMURA Active Member

    I think the Sochi's golds for dance and pairs are already done deals for Russia. There won't be any need to "deal" with the US or any countries. And this time, they seriously want the ladies gold ("sweep" if possible).
  5. Prancer

    Prancer Slave to none, master to all Staff Member

    If Mirai skates to Scheherazade in Sochi, we will know the sekret Frank Carroll program for Olympic success.
  6. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

    If there is any event that the Russians probably wont win it would be the ladies. I bet they find a way to clinch the dance and pairs but at this point everything is way too far away to even have a clue.
  7. Kwantumleap

    Kwantumleap Well-Known Member

    Someone has a lot of free time on their hands ;)
  8. Aussie Willy

    Aussie Willy Hates both vegemite and peanut butter

    I am not sure that you can increase the probabilities on the back of one skater.
  9. CaptCrunch

    CaptCrunch New Member

    The Russian ladies will be Russia's best shot for gold come Sochi. They have an embarrassment of riches right now with young up and coming ladies. Not all of them are going to blow up on them.

    The Russian pairs program has taken a big hit and it won't recover from it. Economically they will find out now how difficult it is to keep pair teams together. As Russia gets stronger in one discipline they will get weaker in others.

    Their jr. dance team (I/K) will definitely be pushed to the forefront and they will contend for gold in Sochi.

    Russia will not contend for gold in either pairs or mens. Volozo./Trankov will not win gold in Sochi. No way no how. She will be past her prime by them and Trankov has never been much of a competitor. The rest of their pairs are far too weak to ever contend for an olympic medal.

    Ladies and dance will be Russia's only shot for olympic gold come Sochi.
  10. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    I agree with you that the ladies will be a strong discipline for Russia in Sochi. They have far too many good ladies that are just now entering the juniors and it is very unlikely that all of them would not manage to go through puberty.

    However, I disagree that Russian weakest discipline will be pairs. At the moment they have 6 reasonably strong pairs, so if either of them starts having problems, they will be very easily replaced. In regards to Volosozhar being too old...well look at the age of Shen/Zhao.... Besides, all the current top pairs will be around that age - for example I don't think Savchenko/Szolkovy, Pang/Tong etc are much younger.

    In my opinion the weakest discipline will be men, byt saying that, I haven't been following young Russian men (juniors who will just become eligible for Sochi) so it may be that actually they are not going to have a weak discipline.
  11. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    :lol: Probably !
  12. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

    Tatiana Vol. won't necessarily be past her prime- she'll be only 27- much younger than Gold or Silver pair medalists this year.
    I have no way of knowing, of course! - but vague recent reports from FSO boards say that Volosozhar/ Trankov look excellent in practice. We'll know more very soon.
  13. zigzig

    zigzig Well-Known Member

    Except in Michelle's case :(

    ETA: D'oh - forgot that she had already left him by then but I think she was still with him when that program was originally conceived...
  14. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

    Yes, it is coincidence.
  15. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    How about in 2006 Lysacek bombed in his short program and while Nagusu did fine she got a nosebleed which could have caused problems. So they both had problems in the short but did well in the long.

    I forget what this thread was about while I was reading it because it turned into a thread about Russia because of the idea that no Carroll skater would do well in Russia. I don't agree that pairs will be weakest. I think men will be weakest. Russia as of right now has three seniors and one junior with potential in mens. Actually I am never sure what kind of performance Voronov will give. Then there is Plushenko who says stuff like the Japan Open is training for Sochi but that can be seen as just smart PR.
  16. key65man

    key65man New Member

    I think the minimum of two ladies with triple Axel -- perhaps all UR'd versions, tho -- will have a legit shot at the gold. I don't think Mirai is going to be one of them. Then, her best shot is to perfect 3Lz-3T. However, with the comparative advantages of 3-3 and even 2A-3 minimized both in comparison with 3A and in terms of relative scoring advantage over UR'd versions, Mirai will be at disadvantage against better competitions even if she somehow gets her 3Lz-3T down.

    So, The new rules may prove to be a double edged sword for Mirai. Apparently, she is to reap the benefits of the 70% rule. Though that helps to stablize her lower limit in scoring and therefore improve her chance at the podium (at least before Sochi), in order for Mirai to win either gold or silver consistently at a bigger stage, she must fully rotate her jumps. The new rules does not help her in that regard.

    Actually, if both Yuna and Mao show up along with a couple of Russian girls in Sochi, Mirai may not have a decent shot at the podium unless they bomb their programs.

    Of course, Mirai has a serious political backing because she can affect the two biggest figure skating markets, the U.S. and Japan. She also has the examplary flexibility that makes good TV for casual fans. I guess she won't suffer in terms of PCS. But, that won't be guaranteed in Sochi, either.
  17. manleywoman

    manleywoman podcast mistress

    You forget Kwan and Fratianne also skated to Schez.
  18. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

    Kwan, however, did not skate to "Carmen" four years before skating to Schez. Did Fratianne?
  19. Kwantumleap

    Kwantumleap Well-Known Member

  20. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

    You're right ... it was the '98/'99 season, not just the '99 season. However, she did not skate to "Carmen" at her first Olys.
  21. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    I have no problem with Mirai winning in '14. :D

    There should be a vBet event - "Will Mirai skate to Schez. for her FS in the '13-'14 season?" :lol:
  22. LuckyCharm

    LuckyCharm Well-Known Member

    This will probably only work if Mirai first wins '13 Worlds skating to Gershwin.
  23. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

    And will Mirai register anonymously at FSU, bet big on that question, and then manipulate the outcome with her own music choice? :D
  24. Dragonlady

    Dragonlady Sew Happy

    I love it that people have decided that Russian skaters, or any country's skaters for that matter, are going to win gold in 2014. We don't even know if these teams will still be together in 2014.

    Every season we have people telling us that his skater is that one is absolutely a "lock" for the gold and how often has that turned out to be correct?

    I'd rather wait another 3+ years before I begin to speculate on who will win the gold in Sochi and then it will be based on who is skating, who is healthy and who is not, and who looks ready to contend.
    skatemomaz and (deleted member) like this.
  25. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    But noone is saying here that they are a "lock" for the gold. What people are saying is that they have quite a few strong pairs, so it won't be their weakest discipline (in comparison with other skating disciplines).
  26. Carolla5501

    Carolla5501 Well-Known Member

    See above... At least ONE poster knows...:lol:

    However, I give this just as much weight at Mr Wier's "whining" that the only reason he didn't win a medal was that Evan did......:watch:
  27. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    But isn't that the same type of speculations we have all over this forum? Such as, Mirai Nagasu is strong for gold in Sochi, she is strong enough to beat Asada, Kim and ....(add there names)...
  28. Carolla5501

    Carolla5501 Well-Known Member

    They just provide entertainment too.

    The nice thing about this board is that some posters KNOW who will win without the event taking place (and then KNOW their skater was robbed without seeing the event. :lol:)
  29. numbers123

    numbers123 Well-Known Member

    I guess this goes to show you how desperate we are for the GP series to start. When we start predicting who will win light years in the future. :lol:

    And I thought UMBS's vbets for the GP Finals was a bit premature. :watch:
  30. sadya

    sadya Active Member

    I doubt if Russia will win gold in any of the figure skating disciplines in 2014, but then again you never know what unexpected something can happen. As the cliché says; ice is slippery.