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Can Ashley actually score well at Worlds?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by krenseby, Jan 29, 2012.

  1. krenseby

    krenseby Active Member

    Do you guys think it's possible for Ashley to get good scores at this year's Worlds? It would be sad if she would skate brilliantly and yet be scored poorly! I don't think she deserves to be treated as damaged goods, as someone unworthy of contending for a top 5 finish.
  2. Marco

    Marco Well-Known Member

    Which is why it is smart to send her to 4CCs for further exposure, some PCS and ISU points accumulation, and hopefully an ISU championship medal.

    At Worlds, I don't expect her to beat Asada, Suzuki and Kostner. As for the rest, Czisny, the Russians and Korpi have been up and down, so Wagner can certainly contend for a top 5. But she has to be absolutely spot on and bring out the big tricks. A 3flip2toe in the short program will bury her. She is no Asada.

    If all goes well for her, she should expect mid 7s for PCS as maximum.
  3. BittyBug

    BittyBug And the band played on

    :huh: Why? 3T-3T = 8.2 points in base value. 3F-2T = 6.6 points in base value. I hardly think a gap of 1.8 points will "bury her."
  4. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

    Here's what Ashley scored in her bronze-medal winning FS at SC:
    110.98 56.50 55.48 7.04 6.32 7.32 6.82 7.18

    1.8 points wouldn't necessarily bury her, but it could be enough to leave her out of the final group for FS.

    However, Ashley hasn't been trying any 3/3s this season. If she's still double-footing her jumps, I'd be concerned that 3/3 attempts would result in URs, downgrades or even falls. She already is getting dinged for flutzing.
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  5. Nomad

    Nomad Celebrity cheese-monger

    I think if she puts two clean skates together she could possibly make the top five. I hope that winning the national title will give her the confidence to do that.
  6. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    International judges dont really like her up to now to be honest. Even her good results ae with mediocre scores and others performing poorly. However up until this year she was frequently underrated by National judges even when she skated fairly well, and that changed this year. Hopefully as U.S Champ she has a whole new street cred and if she can back it up with performance will be rewarded.
  7. newbatgirl

    newbatgirl Well-Known Member

    Ladies at Worlds can be a splatfest. I don't think you can say that anyone who has medaled on the GP is truly out of the top five range. Anything can happen. Crossing my fingers that Ashley and Alissa skate as cleanly as possible, and score well enough to earn three spots.
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    I still believe Alissa can definitely medal if she skates cleanly. Heck she beat a good Kostner at Skate America with falls and majors errors, although that was probably only due it being in the U.S.
  9. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Depends. Can she skate well at Worlds?
  10. krenseby

    krenseby Active Member

    I meant assuming that she skates either her best or really well, will that get her somewhere? Will the judges reward her for skating well?
  11. aliceanne

    aliceanne Well-Known Member

    She will if she follows her plan to:

    1. Add a triple/triple to her SP
    2. Not get any edge calls
    3. Land her triples cleanly on one foot.
    4. Not fall

    In the past number 3 has been the biggest challenge. Even at the 2010 Nationals where she pulled up from 12th to third, she landed most of her jumps with her feet still crossed. This year I only noticed that one jump where she scraped her foot checking out.

    As to whether she will medal will depend on how some of the others skate. There are better jumpers and better artistic skaters. I thought her choreography was a little off in the long. In the middle right where the music swells to it's most dramatic crescendo it appears she takes a rest break.
  12. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

    Seriously, the excuses and "wuz robbed" claims have stared already, and she hasn't even bought her plane ticket yet. :rolleyes:

    I'm off to marinate my hat, as I'll be eating it should Ashley "skates brilliantly" at worlds. :lol: sorry, but nothing in her 5 years of pretty consistant skating has shown anything of kind will happen.
  13. Nomad

    Nomad Celebrity cheese-monger

    I think she can. And I think that if she does, she'll get good marks - she's never finished lower than 5th at any GP, which is more than a lot of the ladiezz can say. Nobody's been consistent this year; Asada, Suzuki, and Koster look good for the podium, but a recharged Alissa or Leonova could be a spoiler. As for the other ladies, Korpi, Gedevanishvili, Korobeinykova or even Makarova could keep her out the top five. Or not. she really needs to go out there and hit everything.
  14. iarispiralllyof

    iarispiralllyof Active Member

    i'm rooting for her. I think her spiral is the highlight of her black swan lp. her layback is pretty. i think the ending was anticlimactic though
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Better spinners too. Better basic skaters. I like Ashley and was thrilled she won Nationals but she really isnt good enough to control her own destiny vs the Worlds best even if she were more liked by the judges. She isnt one of the very best if they all have their best day. She isnt a Czisny or Nagasu really. Hopefully she can have one of her best days, and capatilize if some of the better skaters dont.
    Ozzisk8tr and (deleted member) like this.
  16. orbitz

    orbitz Well-Known Member

    I thought Ashley's Black Swan was supposed to be "edgy". Didn't she say that about her LP earlier in the season? I don't find the current program to be memorable at all. And of course Ashley did the dreaded circling-in-one-place-on-the-toepicks move that every Swan Lake program has.
  17. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

    Well, she better than Leonova in my book, so if she beats Leonova, I'm going to be perfectly happy. :)
  18. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa discriminating and persnickety ballet aficionado

    I think that if she takes care of the 2-footing issue and skates clean, I see no reason why she wouldn't make top 5. With some help from the big guns she could medal.
  19. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

    This is an excellent point that we need to understand. The penalty for a fall is one point? Nonsense. If Jeremy had fallen 3 times, would his score be just 3 points lower? No. Well landed jumps have a psychological effect on the judges that we don't fully comprehend. When a skater lands clean, hard jumps, the spirals look prettier, the spins look faster, all other elements just look nicer.

    Trust me, it's not just 1.8 points.
  20. sequins

    sequins Active Member

    I like Ashley, she seems like a a sweetheart and was happy for her this weekend. I think with the women anything can happen. If she skates well I don't see why she wouldn't place well and if she skates well that's really all that matters and I think she'd be happy with that regardless of the judges. On a shallow note I always like her outfits, she'd had some real pretty dresses over the years.
  21. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

    I'm not sure if she can medal, but I think top 6 is certainly within her grasp. She's armed with two great programs this season, and I think being the U.S. champion will help boost her confidence even more.
  22. modern_muslimah

    modern_muslimah Thinking of witty user title and coming up blank

    I think she can easily make the top ten if she skates well. Top five won't easy for her. She doesn't have the same rep with judges that Alissa has and Mao, Carolina, Kiira, Akiko, even Alena will all go into the WC with a better rep than Ashley. Still, none of those skaters is the model of consistency so if Ashley skates cleanly (gets rid of the two foot landings, rotates all her jumps), then I think she has a good chance of getting into the top five. I don't think all of those skaters will skate well in Nice, which may open the door for Ashley. Still, Ashley has to be able to handle the pressure too.
  23. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

    Not for skaters like Carolina or Patrick...
  24. Marco

    Marco Well-Known Member

    She will be buried in PCS and most likely GOEs too. Unless you have won some sort of World / Euro / 4CC / GPF medal, you won't be taken seriously with just a 3/2 in the short. This is as much reputational judging as it is the fact that she just isn't in the same league as Asada, Suzuki or Czisny (or Nagasu) who do 3/2s in the short.

    Plus, her main competition for placement will come from the B list contenders (Russians, Korpi, Murakami etc) and they mostly do 3/3s in the short and have already had some sort of Euro / GPF medal. Wagner will either need to medal or skate really well at 4CCs or do a 3/3 in the short to even level with them.
  25. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

    I have mixed feelings about sending Ashley to 4CC. Alissa was U.S. champ in 2009. She went to 4CC and got beat by 2 other Americans. Then she accomplished the exact same feat last year. If Ashley gets beat by one or both U.S. ladies, that could diminish her in the eyes of ISU judges.

    Both of Ashley's team mates have short program triple-triples. Agnes would be deadly if she skates clean, and Caroline has a mysterious ability to do better in ISU events than national events.
  26. skfan

    skfan Member


    has caroline really scored better at internationals than at home recently? i thought she hasn't been scored well in either places until this year's nationals.

    as for 4CC, i am happy with the ladies team (dance is another story), because if you are the USFS you want to do your best to support a big-jumper like agnes--you want her to have a chance for redemption as early as possible. ok, *i* want her to, because she looked so devastated on tv.

    i doubt very much that ashley will finish behind both caroline and agnes at 4CC.
  27. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

    Maybe not both, but even one could reduce her stature in the eyes of the ISU judges. The flip side of course is that if Ashley does very well, that could raise her stature.
  28. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    I would be surprised if Ashley isnt the top American at 4CCs. She hasnt had a bad skate all year, Agnes hasnt had a good long program all year (heck her only good short was at Nationals), and Caroline is a ways away from beating her at this point still. It is not like the international judges think a whole lot of her thus far anyway. Things can only get better if she does another event and skates well again, espcecialy coming off her U.S title.
  29. Louis

    Louis Well-Known Member

    As Terry Gannon would say, she won't control her own destiny.

    Kostner, the 3 Russians, the 3 Japanese, Gedevanishvili, whichever of Phaneuf or Lacoste goes, Korpi, Czisny, and possibly others all have the potential to score above Wagner with a good skate. They all have equal to (much) better basic skating technique.

    Let's say HALF of the above hit. That still leaves her in seventh place with a clean or close-to-clean skate. If she two-foots like she did at Nationals, much lower.

    Wagner played her cards right at Nationals, but Worlds will require a bigger effort. IMO, she has to try for 3F+3T in the short and 3F+3T and 2A+3T in the free skate if she has any chance of top five. The math won't work any other way.
  30. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa discriminating and persnickety ballet aficionado

    Saw a blip on Ashley interviewed about her win and plans for Worlds. She said she knows she needs a 3/3 for the SP, lose the edge call and the 2 footed landings. She knows. Hopefully, she can improve.