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Best chance of retaining their Olympic title in 2018: Hanyu or Sotnikova?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Jul 13, 2014.

Best chance of retaining their Olympic title: Hanyu or Sotnikova?

Poll closed Aug 12, 2014.
  1. Yuzuru Hanyu

    172 vote(s)
  2. Adelina Sotnikova

    6 vote(s)
  3. Don't know

    9 vote(s)
  1. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Member

    If Hanyu were to retain his Olympic title in 2018, he would become the first skater in men's singles to retain his title since Dick Button in 1952.

    If Adelina Sotnikova were to retain her Olympic title in 2018, she would the first skater in Ladies singles to do so since Katerina Witt in 1988.

    Hence, which of the 2 skaters has the best chance of retaining their Olympic title in 2018 - Hanyu or Sotnikova?
  2. docktrump

    docktrump Member

    Hanyu by about 100 times over. How is this even a question. I would give Hanyu a 70% chance to win the next Olympics. I would give Sotnikova at most a 15% to even be on the ice competing at the next Olympics.
    flutzilla1 and (deleted member) like this.
  3. bardtoob

    bardtoob Former Choreographer for Anna Maria Tragikova

    Considering that Hanyu is actually as good as his scores, even if I hate his programs, I think he is good enough to win multiple OGMs.

    Maybe Sotnikova will get better, but she wasn't good enough for the OGM she has now.
  4. shirokjj

    shirokjj Member

    Considering the 2018 Olympics is held in Korea and one is Japanese, the other Russian I say both have no chances. They would need to give the skate of their lives to even land on the podium for bronze :lol:
  5. staceyliving

    staceyliving New Member

    I could see a Russian winning in 2018. Just definitely not Sotnikova is all.
  6. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

    I couldn't believe that this was actually a question... Hanyu! I think Lipnitskaya could win the next Olympics though.
  7. elif

    elif Well-Known Member

    Sotnikova is like ''bad luck Brian'' in FSU. :lol: She gave best performance of her life with very good number of triple jumps but now everbody lost believe in her but Hanyu gave bad performance with a lot of mistakes everbody already thinks he is two time olympic champion. :lol:

    I voted for Hanyu by the way. I don't know If Sotnikova will ever come back.
    justiceforfs likes this.
  8. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

    That would be funny to see Sotnikova coming back in 2018 with a lot of improvements, correct edges, polished style, to win the Gold medal ! :p
  9. Edgecase

    Edgecase Well-Known Member

    Hanyu, hands down, mainly because Sotnikova doesn't have the greatest jump technique which will come to haunt her as she gets older.

    And for the record I didn't have a problem so much with the fact that Sotnikova won the OGM, but by the margin of victory. It wasn't even close and I was slightly disturbed by that. I also found the scoring in the sp more upsetting on that note than in the lp.

    Regarding Hanyu, I think he can only get better, especially in the component mark.
  10. joubertelegant

    joubertelegant Member

    Hanyu by far. Sotnikova has about as much chance of winning a million dollar lottery than defending her Olympic title.
  11. DannyCurry

    DannyCurry Active Member

    I voted "don't know", but actually I just hope neither of them will win the OGM in 2018.
  12. joubertelegant

    joubertelegant Member

    Prepare to be dissapointed when it comes to Hanyu then. I don't see who could even possibly beat him then, including the young juniors coming up. Maybe Fernandez if he gets mentally tougher, and improves his GOE and PCS, but he will be pretty old by the next Games. Unlike the womens you wont see a teenager who emerges a year or two before the Games only win it, that never happens in mens skating, only in womens.
  13. aliceanne

    aliceanne Well-Known Member

    Didn't it just happen with Hanyu? He wasn't a contender 2 years ago, it was all about Chan.
    justiceforfs likes this.
  14. shirokjj

    shirokjj Member

    Well, quite a few people was sure he'd be a contender for a medal in 2010/2011 but after his bronze in 2012, some believed he could challenge for OGM by Sochi. Of course, the majority was going with Chan, but Hanyu didn't exactly come out of nowhere.
  15. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

    Ya, the only other one I think might be able to beat Hanyu by then would be Kovtun, if he improves a bit and they don't give his spot to Plush again. Jason Brown could be a dark horse if he gets a quad, but I'd still say that's a very outside chance.
  16. FTnoona

    FTnoona New Member

    Hanyu has been on the senior circuit for the entire olympic cycle though. He didn't produce results his first year on the senior GP that would make you go - that is an Olympic podium contender, but he's been a senior for 4 years.
    I think Hanyu's got a better chance of defending than Sotnikova though. There are a handful of ladies out there that can match Sotnikova's jump content, especially in her own country, while Hanyu for now has the ever so slight upper hand on the men except for Javi. We'll see if someone comes along in the next quad that can out jump Hanyu bc PCS sure didn't save Chan during the Olympics.
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2014
  17. DannyCurry

    DannyCurry Active Member

    That's ok, because I don't have any male favorite skater atm (if Chan retires). Plus, considering the constant crooked judging in FS, I don't expect rightful winners to receive the gold medal they actually deserve.
  18. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I <3 Kozuka

    Maybe because Sotnikova needed to give the skates of her life in Russia, whereas Hanyu could mess up several times and still win, and that gives him a much greater upside?
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2014
  19. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I <3 Kozuka

    Oops, dupe.
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2014
  20. joubertelegant

    joubertelegant Member

    Exactly, Adelina had to skate out of her mind to win the Olympics in Russia with Putin probably paying a fortune for her win. Even the performances she gave there, literally once in a lifetime type skates for her probably, would have seen her only 3rd or 4th overall, and nowhere near a gold medal, had the Games been held anywhere else too. Add to that the amazing depth coming up in Russia, that Julia usually beats her already and has a lot more improvement left than Adelina has if she even continues, and that Sotnikova would be the most hated women in the country if she somehow made it to the next Games....and well you do the math to her winning odds.

    Hanyu's are excellent, goes without saying. That as an up and coming skater who can get a lot better he won the Olympics with 2 falls and a 3rd mistake which cost him more points than a fall, only speaks to how high his chances moving forward are.
  21. joubertelegant

    joubertelegant Member

    I suspect the Sotnikova votes are pity votes. I have a hard time believing anyone really believes she is the more likely of the two to win in 2018.
    justiceforfs likes this.
  22. zippy

    zippy Active Member

    I think I'd enjoy it even more if she won again in 2018 exactly the same way she did in Sochi with no improvements at all, possibly still skating to Rondo :argue: :watch: :EVILLE:
    justiceforfs likes this.
  23. hirtmoles31

    hirtmoles31 Active Member

    Hanyu. Sotnikova wont even be at the next Olympics.
  24. sylvestercat

    sylvestercat Member

    Adelina is hard to predict from here. She will need a super strong will and pit in her stomach to come back strong after all the hatred towards her for Sochi (which I don't agree with her getting). I am not sure if she has that. I think she is of strong will, but not sure if that strong, and very few skaters would be able to recover from that. If she is of even stronger will than I believe she is though, she might come back stronger than ever and use the hating against her as fuel to come back gangbusters and be contending right at the top for atleast a couple more years.

    Even if I am wrong and she does, and even maybe uses it as fire to make her even stronger, I would still pick Hanyu though. He is so likely to win the next Olympic gold, and even in good form, and even if the Olympics weren't held in Korea, her odds would not approach his super high ones.
  25. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

    Adelina I think it would be an accomplish just to qualify for the next Olympics. Not to diss her, but there are so many talented young and hungry Russian girls. Adelina will have the weight of the Gold medal, and while she is capable of great difficulty, neither her technique or mental game is that consistent. I think the older skater always has it tougher when there are strong young challengers, and Adelina isnt a Kwan/Kim/Slute/Asada type of competitior in the first place.

    If any single skater can repeat, I will be Hanyu. He just seems so strong and tenacious, and he has the ability too. I think it also helps that he skates for Japan, where there is so much support all season long.
  26. shirokjj

    shirokjj Member

    I think that will be his downfall. Its hard to imagine that Korea will let a Japanese win Gold at home on a stage like the Olympics. They can't do anything with timed and calculated sports but FS is a very subjective sport and can be influenced. (Some say that the Korean fed don't have any power but who needs power when you have money? Look at 2002 WC ;) ) Like I said, he'll have to perform miles better than anyone else in order to win. :p

    Adelina has a chance on the podium but even that will be hard for her.
  27. snoopy

    snoopy Team St. Petersburg

    But maybe that is Adelina's advantage - she has no stress on her while the other ladies have something to prove and to lose.
  28. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Should Adelina continue she has more stress and pressure on her than anyone else by a long way. In too many different ways to list given how Sochi went down to the general public. So that wouldn't be an advantage for her as it the furthest thing from her situation in the first place.

    Even under the very best of circumstances, which are in no way her circumstances, any Olympic Champion who chooses to continue has more pressure than anyone else anyway. Which is why so few even do so. Urmanov and Yu Na Kim are the only two recent examples to go by, and Urmanov's career post Lillehammer speaks for itself. Kim became a part time skater to bear the immense pressure more easily, and while she handled it immaculately given how difficult it is, still won only 1 of the 4 major events she entered the remainder of her career.

    It there is an Olympic Champion who continues who will have less pressure than usual though that person would be Hanyu. He is expected to win everything now, but with Chan probably retired there isn't even anyone to really challenge him at the moment which relives some of the usual pressure of expectations of being a favorite and living up to an Olympic title. He is also adored by judges, skating fans, experts, and everyone in the sport, and has pretty much everyone in his corner, which isn't easily said for Adelina. It is also quite obvious he has much room to grow, which also isn't easily said for Adelina. He also isn't even the favorite star in Japan even after his historic feat, that still being Takahashi probably until he has been retired awhile. That is also so good for him. He doesn't have to live up to a larger than life celebrity in his own country following an Olympic gold like Yu Na. He doesn't have to worry about doing well in competitions to make a living and survive; and worry about the pro financial gain he misses out on by staying amateur, like Urmanov. And he certainly doesn't have to worry about convincing and reproving himself to a huge number of worldwide skeptics, critics, and disbelievers like Adelina does.

    This also has to be the most lopsided poll I think I have ever seen anywhere on any topic. I would think Hanyu would win a poll like this, but wow it is even more lopsided than I would imagine. I guess there are very few who think Sotnikova can defend her OGM, albeit probably with good reason.
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2014
  29. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Nope, it mainly speaks to how shitty/ underwhelming the Men's competition ended up being at the Sochi Olympics. :p
  30. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

    I disagree with both these statements. Sotnikova is the sort of technically sound skater who could still be competitive in 4 years. Her problem is that she has zero presentation skills (ridiculous Sochi PCS notwithstanding) and I think the judges will be looking to move the title on to a more gifted performer.

    Hanyu has both technical and presentation skills, but he is very young and will probably experience some changes in his maturing body which will make it harder to rotate his jumps. Still, I would agree that he could still be competitive in 4 years. I would not say, however, that he or anybody else is an odds-on favorite for any gold medal this far out. For one thing, we don't know what kinds of injuries anyone will have and how those might impact things like quad jumps. Besides, of course, he will have Plushenko to contend with next time. :D