U.S. Ladies [#17]: Heading to Helsinki in a Handbasket

[Areski]

I'm not sure that I agree that Karen's SP at nationals would have had her ranked at close to the very top of any competition. I think that she probably would have gotten unders on both of her combinations in the short and long (my opinion, I know that the Skating Protocol disagreed). Of course, pretty much everyone in the top 6 was not rotating their combos in the sp and just didn't get called for it. But at least some of the others have a track record of rotating it outside nationals, even if only sporadically. Has Karen ever gotten her 3-3 ratified internationally recently (I'm assuming maybe she did in her jr days?)? That said, I would gladly take an under on that combo if she could hit her other jumps like she did at nationals.

I think she legitimately did 3-3 combo in SP without UR at least in SP so that was not just "generous panel" that helped her in that but Karen herself. You can compare it with previous SP outing in one of Karen's GP events to see noticeable, positive difference when she received UR call and that jump looked very questionable even in real time. Either way no matter how positive tech calls are she would have a hard time getting score above 70, but this is domestical inflation.

 

[kwanfan1818]

And so someone like Adelina leaves quickly.

I don't think she's a good example: she won the main prize in her own country, and she had a lot of media and appearance distractions. Then she was injured, but was able to compete in a ballroom show competition, and since then is in the position of needing to earn a living to help her sister.

The rest that achieved great success and then have been surpassed are pretty much still in and trying: Leonova (World silver, for the scoffers), Lipnitskaya, Radionova, Sakhonovich, Tuktamysheva. We lost the Polinas in trying to transition from the Junior level, but the rest are trying to be competitive and all but Leonova are considered seriously.

 

[GullyGirl84]

I think she legitimately did 3-3 combo in SP without UR at least in SP so that was not just "generous panel" that helped her in that but Karen herself. You can compare it with previous SP outing in one of Karen's GP events to see noticeable, positive difference when she received UR call and that jump looked very questionable even in real time. Either way no matter how positive tech calls are she would have a hard time getting score above 70, but this is domestical inflation.

Yes, it was certainly a closer call than some of her other attempts, that's why I said that it was my opinion that it was under since others have disagreed. One good thing about Karen that I've noticed is that, while her PCs could be higher if she skated clean, the judges don't really "dump her" in terms of PCs when she isn't. Also she maxes out her spin levels obviously. She seems to have put out more solid LPs than SPs in the last year, strangely. I would think that boot problems would affect the long more...I think that Karen and Mariah will be ok in the long, it's getting through the short that I'm nervous about.

 

[Skateparent]

Is there hope for the future? I think there is a lot of talent at the novice and junior level and the new rule changes that incentivize triples and triple-triple combinations are a step in the right direction. Skaters like Nguyen, Andrews, Lin, Paganini, Huang, and Cui have a lot of talent. Do they have enough to defeat the Russians and Japanese? That I'm not so sure about--Russia's and Japan's talent pools are deeper and more developed. I would love to see Vivian Le recover her earlier form because I think she could be a formidable international competitor.

I would love to see a strong come back of Vivian Le. Not sure about her current status but she was awesome when she competed her 2 JGPs in 2015. Though we have some young talents lining up nicely, I agree that at the moment Russian and Japan's talent pools are much, much deeper. It will likely take a few years (?) for those young talents to be able to compete with those amazing Russian girls

 

[Skateparent]

Yes, it was certainly a closer call than some of her other attempts, that's why I said that it was my opinion that it was under since others have disagreed. One good thing about Karen that I've noticed is that, while her PCs could be higher if she skated clean, the judges don't really "dump her" in terms of PCs when she isn't. Also she maxes out her spin levels obviously. She seems to have put out more solid LPs than SPs in the last year, strangely. I would think that boot problems would affect the long more...I think that Karen and Mariah will be ok in the long, it's getting through the short that I'm nervous about.

IMO Karen is truly a performer and would agree your comment about judges don't typically "dump her" on PCS. If both Karen and Mirai didn't skate clean, it seems that it is more likely that judges would "dump" Mirai more

 

[Skateparent]

Regarding Karen Chen's 3-3, calling a jump UR or not is obviously not a pure science. For someone who tends to UR, it is more likely she is on the radar for the technical panel to review the jump and I assume a slight UR would get magnified under the slo-mo

 

[smarts1]

This brings up a bigger issue IMO and it's something I posted about a couple of months ago.

The US women may be heading towards another "transitional" period. Thanks to Ashley and Gracie the US has held it's positioning on the World stage for the past couple of years. Looking ahead, beyond Pyeongchang, if Ashley and Gracie exit the sport we'd be in another post-Torino situation.

I don't see Ashley continuing much longer beyond 2018...if Gracie can't turn it around I think she'll be gone too, or if she does turn it around and does well, she may decide to leave on a high note...Polina seems to already have a life outside of skating so I'd think she may be ready to retire after the Olympics too. There go our 3 top contenders.

Russia has no shortage of talent coming up and Japan has a lot of "cookie dough" talent; it's there but they aren't done baking yet. Looking at the US pool of junior ladies no one made a splash (or even a ripple) on the JGP this season. There is talent in the US but it's not at the level needed to compete at the top.

If Karen and Mariah got their stuff together they'd be a great 1-2 punch. They are both capable in terms of their appeal, jump content, etc. it's just that they do not seem to have that focus and hunger we need to see.

It's very telling that nearly 4 years down the line our optimal team of 3 to send to Pyeongchang would be the same 3 we sent to Sochi. It shows there's staying power with the American women; it also shows there's not much else going on in the ranks. Looking at Russia and Japan, they will likely send an entirely different team than they sent last time.

Just something to think about...

^THIS. I've been saying this for years... Mirai, Caroline, and Ashley burst out onto the scene as Juniors 10 years ago, and yet Mirai and Ashley continue to be our top skaters. It's surprising that after 2.5 Olympic cycles, we still don't really have anyone who will be able to fill their shoes after 2018 (if they all choose to retire). We've seen sparkles of talent (ie Karen, etc), but none of them have shown the consistency combined with the mental ability, jump technique, and artistry to make a splash on the international stage.

 

[haribobo]

You really think among Karen, Mariah, Amber, Angela, Tessa, Vivian, Kaitlyn, Starr, and Bradie we can't scramble a worthy team to send to Worlds? Psh, whatever.

 

[Jammers]

It does say something about the lack of depth in US Ladies that 3 skaters from 2008 finished in the top 5 at Nationals. And it's not like Mirai and especially Caroline have been great skaters over the years like someone like Mao which would explain them still being around and not having been replaced by younger better skaters. Post 2018 without Ashley and Gracie could get ugly for US Ladies unless someone shows they aren't a fluke.

 

[kwanfan1818]

We can put together a worthy team. We just can't expect results like we had when Nikodinov was the one who didn't make the team, because she was fourth best in the US (based on US Nats results).

Not with the depth in Russia and Japan, an OWG in China coming up. The US Ladies from the '90's to mid 00's may have had to compete against one dominant skater from those countries, or two when the stars aligned, but not two or three from Russia and Japan alone.

Daleman and Osmond aren't playing dead, and Kostner, who still doesn't have everything back, has had a strong comeback nonetheless, although who knows for how long.

 

[PDilemma]

We can put together a worthy team. We just can't expect results like we had when Nikodinov was the one who didn't make the team, because she was fourth best in the US (based on US Nats results).

Not with the depth in Russia and Japan, an OWG in China coming up. The US Ladies from the '90's to mid 00's may have had to compete against one dominant skater from those countries, or two when the stars aligned, but not two or three from Russia and Japan alone.

Daleman and Osmond aren't playing dead, and Kostner, who still doesn't have everything back, has had a strong comeback nonetheless, although who knows for how long.

Kostner is 30 years old. I don't see her continuing much longer and if she does, probably not at the highest level. So I don't think she is a factor for the next quad.

 

[Mayra]

^THIS. I've been saying this for years... Mirai, Caroline, and Ashley burst out onto the scene as Juniors 10 years ago, and yet Mirai and Ashley continue to be our top skaters. It's surprising that after 2.5 Olympic cycles, we still don't really have anyone who will be able to fill their shoes after 2018 (if they all choose to retire). We've seen sparkles of talent (ie Karen, etc), but none of them have shown the consistency combined with the mental ability, jump technique, and artistry to make a splash on the international stage.

It has taken Ashley 9 years to medal at the World Championships and 10 years in, Mirai and Caroline are still trying to get it and hold it together. After 1 bad competition since winning her National title people are freaking out on Karen Chen. Talk about misplaced expectations.

The problem with American skating fans is that they want results and they want them yesterday. Not everyone is a skating phenomenon that is going to come out like gangbusters, win and be competitive on the world stage. There are skaters that require time and experience to reach their prime ie Carolina Kostner, Joannie Rochette and Ashely Wagner.

All this over 3 spots at the Olympics is meh. The past few seasons we have had 3 spots for Worlds and we still have the same inconsistent skaters yo yo'ing with their results on the world stage. Maybe with 2 spots, we will finally see skaters raise the bar and take American skating up another notch. JMO

 

[baramin]

We had 2 spots for 5 seasons running & no one was raising the bar higher than it's been the last 3 season, when we've shown that our #s 1, 2 & 4 finishers from nationals are all good enough for top 10 in the world, often top 6 (it's been a bad run for US bronze medalists).

I think part of the stress about Karen comes from 2011 & 2012, when we fielded teams who should have been able to win 3 spots, but one member severely underperformed due to injury--there's some hair-trigger distrust now of skaters who don't perform in the comps between Nats & worlds. But 6 weeks is a long time. The US is no doubt monitoring Chen, and while Bell has been up and down, she's shown she can score well internationally. Neither are likely to get dumped below top 10 contention even with a mid-quality short. Unfortunately, whether we keep 3 spots depends more on how skaters from other countries perform than anything else, which isn't ideal, but that would be true with any 3 skaters we put out right now.

 

[skateboy]

All this over 3 spots at the Olympics is meh. The past few seasons we have had 3 spots for Worlds and we still have the same inconsistent skaters yo yo'ing with their results on the world stage. Maybe with 2 spots, we will finally see skaters raise the bar and take American skating up another notch. JMO

Exactly.

The US ladies do not DESERVE three spots.

 

[Jammers]

Kostner is 30 years old. I don't see her continuing much longer and if she does, probably not at the highest level. So I don't think she is a factor for the next quad.

I don't get why she came back to begin with. Are 3 Olympics not enough? I guess when you have no competition at home you can stay around for as long as you want.

 

[Mayra]

I don't get why she came back to begin with. Are 3 Olympics not enough? I guess when you have no competition at home you can stay around for as long as you want.

She loves the sport, continues to be succesful and wants to continue doing what she loves? Mind you she just placed 3rd at Europeans so whether she has competition at home is irrelevant as she is competitive internationally.

 

[PDilemma]

She loves the sport, continues to be succesful and wants to continue doing what she loves? Mind you she just placed 3rd at Europeans so whether she has competition at home is irrelevant as she is competitive internationally.

She can continue as long as she wants. But this is a sport that is brutal on hips and knees especially. And especially for women. No one is saying she has to retire, just that being a relevant competitor in 2022 (or in the four years leading up to that Olympics is highly unlikely. Seriously, cheerleading aside, Carolina will turn 35 during the 2022 Olympics. I just doubt that physically she will remain competitive in the top tier for much longer.

 

[RockTheTassel]

Exactly.

The US ladies do not DESERVE three spots.

At this moment in time? Perhaps not. But I think much of the upset comes from the fact that next year could look very different from right now. Gracie has the potential to come back strong. Polina does as well. Of course nothing is a guarantee, but it's definitely possible for Ashley, Gracie, Polina, and others to have have great seasons next fall/early winter, only to have one of them miss the Olympics due to this year's unfortunate slump. And that would be a shame.

 

[becca]

I think we should see how the girls at Worlds perform before we determine how many spots US girls deserve. Just Me.

 

[jenniferlyon]

You really think among Karen, Mariah, Amber, Angela, Tessa, Vivian, Kaitlyn, Starr, and Bradie we can't scramble a worthy team to send to Worlds? Psh, whatever.

It depends on your definition of "worthy." If you think skating well enough to qualify for the long program makes them worthy, then yes, they could all probably do that. But if your definition of "worthy" means at least one of them cracks the top ten, then that's less likely. I can't imagine any of them winning a medal at this point in their careers. But some of them might be late bloomers.

 

[berthesghost]

Mariah did 5 international comps this season where she placed silver, silver, bronze, 4th and 6th... But yes, please do predict she'll be lucky to make 24th after the sp at worlds for the rest of her life

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don't think Kostner will skate through 2022. For her it might not be about the 2018 Olympics and stop, though. It might be liking what she does, having "x" amount of programs she wants to compete, wanting to go back to Mishin if he can't coach her in the Olympic season, etc. Which means she could be in the mix at the beginning of the Beijing Olympic cycle, which, even if she stays even on her tech content, puts her in the mix and the formula for how many skaters every other country aside from Russia with skaters who are potentially in the Top 10 gets, and that would impact placement of the post 2018 skaters who are trying to establish themselves and their PCS especially going into Beijing.

 

[Skateparent]

She can continue as long as she wants. But this is a sport that is brutal on hips and knees especially. And especially for women. No one is saying she has to retire, just that being a relevant competitor in 2022 (or in the four years leading up to that Olympics is highly unlikely. Seriously, cheerleading aside, Carolina will turn 35 during the 2022 Olympics. I just doubt that physically she will remain competitive in the top tier for much longer.

I respect Kosner's come back immensely, but agreed that this sport is so hard on the body. With the intensity of training all year round, I just hope that she doesn't get injured. I guess doing shows is perhaps not as gratifying

 

[kwanfan1818]

It wasn't her choice to do shows only. As Davis and White said, they were grateful it was their choice.

 

[Coco]

Way to go, Caroline Zhang! Well done!

 

[leigh466]

I think we should see how the girls at Worlds perform before we determine how many spots US girls deserve. Just Me.

I've been disagreeing with you heartily on selection processes, but I heartily agree here. The US women all finished in the top 10 in Boston, so, YES, they most certainly DO deserve 3 spots this year. Perhaps this will not hold true again this year, but to say these spots are undeserved is non-factual.

 

[Sylvia]

Caroline Zhang is competing at Challenge Cup in The Hague this week -- her first international since October 2013! Good luck to her and to 2017 U.S. junior champ Kaitlyn Nguyen (she will be ISU Junior age-eligible in 2017-18 as she turned 13 last November), Emmy Ma (J4) and Hanna Harrell (N6). Nguyen is competing in Adv. Novice (her second international since she won Golden Bear in Croatia) with Harrell who is making her international debut along with Ma, in The Hague.

Challenge Cup results: http://kunstrijden.knsb.nl/2016-2017/20170224/index.htm

Silver - Caroline ZHANG 166.93 3 2 - FS video
(She got both minimums for Worlds so her 3rd alternate status is confirmed.)

Junior Gold - Emmy MA 148.73 1 2

Adv. Novice Ladies:
Gold - Kaitlyn NGUYEN 130.30 1 1
Silver - Hanna HARRELL 111.99 2 2

ETA:

Adv. Novice Ladies SP [top 2]:
Kaitlyn Nguyen USA 44.12 (26.44 TES/17.68 PCS)
Hanna Harrell USA 44.10 (25.50 TES/18.60 PCS)
SP jumps for both Nguyen and Harrell were 3F+2T, 3Lz & 2A - Harrell fell out of her opening 3Lz (hand down) and skated energetically to Gloria Estefan's fast, upbeat "Congo." (3-3 combos are not allowed in Novice SP.)

Nguyen's FS jumps were called: 3Lz<+3T(-0.7), 3Lo, 2A+3T, 3F(!), 3Lz fell out/hands (-1.58), 3S. Scored 86.18 [47.08 TES/39.10 PCS].
Harrell's jumps were called: 3Lz+2T(-0.53), 3Lz, 2A+3T<< fall, 3F<, 3T<, 3S<< fall. Scored 67.89 [32.28 TES/36.61 PCS].

 

[feraina]

Yay another clean FS for Caroline! And international judges give her so much higher PCS than domestic judges. She was getting scores in the 5's at regionals and mid 6's at nationals. But here she's getting high 6's and low 7's. yay!

But she really lost points on the flutz and the < on the end of her 3-3 combo.

 

[RockTheTassel]

Whatever happens, I'm glad Caroline had a reasonably successful competitive comeback. 5th at US nationals and 2nd in an international competition is impressive, even if it's not the top of the World podium.

 

[berthesghost]

Congrats to Caroline!

And congrats to Leona! I was so touched by her brother's interview about how he helps support her. I hope helps. I used to go to Belgian nats when I lived there back in the kvdp days, and it really was a forgotten sport there.