U.S. Ladies [#17]: Heading to Helsinki in a Handbasket

[Frida80]

It's hard to tell from the last name. But it says on her Icenetwork Profile "Parents are Miyung Hong and Yong Hwa Hong" -- these sound more like Korean names.

I think she might as well go for it at the senior level next year. She has the right profile for someone like Frank Carroll to lead her to a breakout Olympic year. After all, Frank Carroll did an amazing job with both Mirai Nagasu and Gracie Gold at the last two Olympics, after a relatively short time. It would in any case very hard for her to make a splash at the crowded junior level, with all these amazing Russian and Japanese girls, and so few U.S. JGP spots.

It will be much harder for Tessa to have a break out season like Mirai or Gracie. When they went to Frank they already has impressive resumes. Both of them won Jr nationals. Both of them won silver at JW. Mirai had already won a national title. Gracie placed silver at nationala the year before. They already had spots at the GP. Tessa has none of that. She has no international medals nor any junior or senior medals. She has promise but without results it will be impossible to get the USOC to pick her or more accomplished ladies.

 

[Frida80]

@Mayra Sure, Nagasu/Bell/Chen/Gold/Hicks are inconsistent, but they've done a whole lot more than any of the Juniors or Juniors competing as Seniors nationally right now. Not to mention Nagasu and Bell are getting a lot better, Gold still has potential (and we've a while to see how much the coaching change has corrected her trajectory), and Chen has a potential for a high score if she hits her jumps.

As scoring history stands right now, if those 8 skaters are at their best at Nationals, no one but them has a shot at the Olympic team. If all eight skaters are at their recent worst while the rest of the skaters hit their PBs (highly unlikely), Wagner is essentially a lock, but five additional skaters have a shot at making the team.

They can try and dream, but it's far less realistic for them to make it than it would've been in 2014. As I explained in my post, in 2014 there was no good choice for that 3rd spot. For 2018, there's eight skaters that could make a case for why they would be a solid choice for the team. If anyone but the eight I see as the most competitive makes that team, I'm betting on Amber Glenn.

For Reference:
*Note that reputation does play a role in this, but it will also play a role in Olympic selection and Olympic results
Seniors: (Worst performances of last two seasons and PB ranked by PB)

1. Wagner (CoC 2016 - 181.38), (NHK 2015 - 179.33); PB is 215.39 at 2016 Worlds
2. Gold (Golden Spin 2016 - 159.02), (4CC 2016 - 178.39); PB is 211.29 at 2016 World
3. Nagasu (SC 2016 - 151.42), (Nebehorn 2015 - 159.67); PB is 194.95 at 2017 4CC
4. Bell (Nepela 2016 - 161.72), (Nepela 2015 - 135.43); PB is 191.59 at 2016 SA
5. Edmunds [Senior Career] (CoC 2014 - 161.27), (NHK 2014 - 161.79); PB is 187.50 at 2014 Worlds
6. Hicks (Finlandia 2016 - 149.80), (Nebelhorn 2015 - 162.85); PB is 183.12 at 2015 NHK Trophy
7. Chen (Golden Spin 2016 - 155.63), (US Classic 2015 - 159.18); PB is 179.39 at 2016 CoC
8. Zhang (Challenge Cup 2017 - 166.93); PB is 176.48 at 2008 GPF

-Ranked by international worst for the past two seasons skated:
1. Wagner (179.33) 2. Zhang (166.93)* 3. Edmunds (161.27) 4. Gold (159.02) 5. Chen (155.63) 6. Nagasu (151.42) 7. Hicks (149.80) 8. Bell (135.43)
-Ranked by international worst this season:
1. Wagner (181.38) 2. Zhang (166.93)* 3. Bell (161.72) 4. Gold (159.02) 5. Chen (155.63) 6. Nagasu (151.42) 7. Hicks (149.80)
*With a sample size of one international, she should probably be excluded here (she didn't skate internationally in previous two seasons before the current one)

Juniors/Seniors at National Level/Up and Comers Eligible for Olympics: (PB and ranking against top contenders)
Feel free to add other skaters with better PBs who could be in this category; I included those ladies that competed Senior at nationals 2017/2016 (that people here talk about) or have had rumors about moving up to senior for the 2018 Olympic season

1. Glenn - PB: 183.60 (6th best PB, 1st compared to worst skates)
2. Le - PB: 176.30 (9th best PB, 2nd compared to worst skates)
3. Pierce - PB: 171.72 (9th best PB, 2nd compared to worst skates)
4. Tennell - PB: 168.98 (9th best PB, 2nd compared to worst skates)
5. A. Wang - PB: 166.80 (9th best PB, 3rd compared to worst skates)
6. Hong - PB: 152.62 (9th best PB, 6th compared to worst skates)
7. Rydberg - PB: 149.35 (9th best PB, 8th compared to worst skates)
8. Andrews - PB: 149.05 (9th best PB, 8th compared to worst skates)
9. E. Chen - PB 138.88 (9th best PB, 8th compared to worst skates)

As a personal that loves math and analyzing things, just like to say I love this post.

 

[Vagabond]

I love the concept of the Personal Worst Score or Season's Worst Score.

May every skater's PWS and SWS be as high as possible.

 

[ChibiChibi]

I thought she was Taiwanese? Is she Korean and I've made a mistake all this time? How embarrassing!

Yes, she is Korean. But you are right...her last name sounds more Chinese than Korean.

 

[Mayra]

I love the concept of the Personal Worst Score or Season's Worst Score.

Meanwhile, I love all the hypothetical hand wringing and over an Olympic season that hasn't happened yet and a decision by a skater that has or hasn't been made yet.

 

[Jammers]

If Tessa isn't going to stay a Junior internationally she's not going to get many assignments next season certainly no GP's so i don't know what's going through her head. First she skips going for the Junior title this year after missing Nationals the last couple years and now thinks she doesn't need more experience on the Junior level. She needs more experience period since she hasn't competed much internationally at all and she won't get that if she moves up internationally as a Senior with no resume.

 

[Mayra]

If Tessa isn't going to stay a Junior internationally she's not going to get many assignments next season certainly no GP's so i don't know what's going through her head. First she skips going for the Junior title this year after missing Nationals the last couple years and now thinks she doesn't need more experience on the Junior level.

Where was it announced that these were her plans?

 

[Frida80]

Where was it announced that these were her plans?

Good point. It's all speculation at this point.

 

[her grace]

Tessa Hong was previously coached by Frank Carroll. She already knows him; he already knows her and her family. Hopefully, that will help her make a quick adjustment. Regarding her future plans, I wouldn't be at all surprised if she's aiming senior internationally since she moved quickly through the domestic levels, has already skated two seasons on the JGP, and because there are so few spots available at the junior level. If her team decides to keep her junior internationally, however, she is a front runner for one of the seven spots.

 

[Skateparent]

Tessa Hong was previously coached by Frank Carroll. She already knows him; he already knows her and her family. Hopefully, that will help her make a quick adjustment. Regarding her future plans, I wouldn't be at all surprised if she's aiming senior internationally since she moved quickly through the domestic levels, has already skated two seasons on the JGP, and because there are so few spots available at the junior level. If her team decides to keep her junior internationally, however, she is a front runner for one of the seven spots.

For my edification, what was the seven spots that you were referring to? Is it that USA has a total of 7 spots for the 6 JGP events for 2018 season? Which means USFSA is able to send 2 ladies to one of 6 JGPs, 1 skater goes to the remaining 5 JGPs? Thank you.

 

[Sedge]

Here are the qualification for JGP spots that result from World Junior ( singles...pairs is a bit different)

Singles
The top 3 finishing Nations in each discipline will have 2 entries in each JGP ( 7 JGP’s)
The 4th-6th place finishing Nations are entitled to send 1 entry to each JGP ( 7)
The 7th-10th place nations are entitled to send 1 entry to 6 events
Nations that qualified a skater to skate the FP can enter 1 competitor in 5 events
Nations whose skaters placed 25-30 in the SP can enter 1 competitor in 4 events

I think I got it from the JGP series announcement or the World Junior announcement.

 

[Skateparent]

Here are the qualification for JGP spots that result from World Junior ( singles...pairs is a bit different)

Singles
The top 3 finishing Nations in each discipline will have 2 entries in each JGP ( 7 JGP’s)
The 4th-6th place finishing Nations are entitled to send 1 entry to each JGP ( 7)
The 7th-10th place nations are entitled to send 1 entry to 6 events
Nations that qualified a skater to skate the FP can enter 1 competitor in 5 events
Nations whose skaters placed 25-30 in the SP can enter 1 competitor in 4 events

I think I got it from the JGP series announcement or the World Junior announcement.

Thank you. That makes sense now. I incorrectly thought there were 6 JGPs but that's the number for GP.

 

[aftershocks]

I've been having a blast reading Adam Rippon's recent posts on Twitter...

I especially enjoy Adam's shout-outs to his fave inspiring ladies in honor of Women's Day (March 8)! Included are photos of Adam's Mom, sisters and friends?, Ashley Wagner, Molly Oberstar, Madison Hubbell, Alexa Knierim; and Adam in separate photos with Mirai, Gracie, Mao Asada, Madison Chock, Meryl Davis, Kaitlyn Weaver, Polina Edmunds, Valentina Marchei, Molly Oberstar & friend, and a female pug?).

Heal well Adam!

https://twitter.com/Adaripp?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[Dobre]

Things are about to get tougher on the ladies JGP. Korea may now send twice as many athletes. And with two more of their top six finishers from Senior Nationals now likely old enough to compete on the Junior Grand Prix, they have athletes to challenge & fill those spots. I hope Vivien Le is healthy this coming season.

 

[aftershocks]

^^ The depth is only getting deeper. But are the competitive opportunities increasing as exponentially as the depth of talent in all disciplines?

 

[Dobre]

But are the competitive opportunities increasing as exponentially as the depth of talent in all disciplines?

I don't follow all the disciplines well enough to answer that question, but opportunities increased this year in dance because there was a need. The change from eight to ten spots on the GP meant athletes with an SB ranking as far down as 32nd received invitations to two events. (FYI, Pogrebinsky & Benoit were team #31 and are now team #17 so I would say that is a good argument that there is enough depth to validate the invitations). Without the change, teams ranked as high as 7th & 8th--as well as either host or guaranteed placements--would not have been guaranteed.

There are also all the challenger series fields & senior B fields that are open to larger fields. Dancers are not invited to as many senior B events as singles skaters, but the limitations at the moment aren't due to a lack of events. The opportunities to compete exist. However, it is a challenge for teams in different countries to receive multiple invitations to senior international events. My interpretation is that this is more of an issue of funding on a federation by federation basis than of opportunity.

It is a definite advantage to attend multiple dance events throughout the season. Athletes improve & adjust throughout the year. Less experienced dance teams who competed multiple times (I've been tracking those moving up from juniors to seniors) showed growth of 10-25 points during the season, while teams that only received one invitation had no opportunity to show their growth internationally.

 

[aftershocks]

^^ Thanks for responding. It is a complicated issue I think because not enough attention is paid to assessing the competition structure in order to make beneficial changes in a thoughtful, forward thinking way that might help bring figure skating more into the 21st-century. The increasing depth of talent far over-reaches the competitive opportunities that are provided to athletes. The ISU is looking for ways to reduce the costs of organizing major events. One of those ways has been limiting the number of entries, at a time when increased depth (e.g. in pairs) cries out for more entry spots to be made available.

A big part of athlete development is providing enough competitive opportunities for growth experiences. It's a tough sport, made even tougher by the difficulty in obtaining sufficient funding, the political aspects of the scoring system, and the complicated politics of athlete selection for events.

Yet still skaters enter the sport for the love of skating, and they continue to dream.

 

[AxelAnnie]

How much would it cost to put in another flight of skaters at
each event? Maybe 10%. Seems worth it to me.

 

[Sylvia]

I did a count and 29 different U.S. ladies have competed internationally this season (Tennell competed once in senior and once in junior).

SENIOR (13 ladies total)
Grand Prix (6 competed on GP): Wagner, Gold, Nagasu, Chen & Hicks twice, Bell once (WD: Edmunds twice, Pierce, Wang)
ISU Challengers (5 in addition to the 6 GP ladies): Bell 3 times, Nagasu, Chen & Glenn twice each; Chan, Rydberg, Chiera & Tennell once each (Wang WD)
Senior B after Nationals: Zhang, Wang
4CC: Nagasu (Wagner WD), Bell, Chen
Worlds: Wagner, Chen, Bell

JUNIOR (11 ladies total)
7 on JGP: Paganini, Wessenberg, Noullet, McIsaac, Lin, Hong, Ouellette (WD: Beavers, Kim)
Golden Bear: Andrews, Kim
Challenge Cup: Ma
Jr. Worlds: Tennell, Andrews (Glenn WD)

NOVICE (6 ladies total)
Golden Bear: Nguyen, Shin, Kalyan
Bavarian Open: Cui, Huang
Challenge Cup: Nguyen (again, after she won the Junior national title), Harrell

 

[haribobo]

I think going senior is the best move for Tessa at this point. It is really easy to drown in a junior field or at least finish low enough to not get a 2nd event. And bombing in a junior event seems sort of harder to bounce back from than bombing a senior event. There are plenty of senior B opportunities to go around, and that may be much more exciting to look forward to, in addition to much greater visibility and status bonus if you do well. Medaling in a senior B is often as simple as beating out Joshi or something. Not that hard to do.

With Starr, Huang (age?), Cui (age?), Kim, Kaitlyn, Emmy, and Alexia, you already have 7 spots filled. Maybe we get lucky and another 1 or 2 goes our way, but still that is not a lot to spread around.

 

[eurodance2001]

Satoko's withdrawal makes it a bit easier for US ladies to keep 3 spots; Rika Hongo has been struggling all season and suffers from downgrades.. Hopefully all US ladies can bring it when it counts..

 

[Sylvia]

With Starr, Huang (age?), Cui (age?), Kim, Kaitlyn, Emmy, and Alexia, you already have 7 spots filled.

Angelina Huang and Ting Cui are 14 (both will turn 15 after July 1). Is "Kim" supposed to be Ashley Lin? Ashley Kim WD from the Junior Ladies event at Nationals.

 

[aftershocks]

I did a count and 29 different U.S. ladies have competed internationally this season (Tennell competed once in senior and once in junior).

A nice number, but still a difficult process under current competition structure to effectively and fairly manage the selection process.

Plus, it's also the number of events each individual skater has the opportunity to participate in that matters.

 

[Chemistry66]

Things are about to get tougher on the ladies JGP. Korea may now send twice as many athletes. And with two more of their top six finishers from Senior Nationals now likely old enough to compete on the Junior Grand Prix, they have athletes to challenge & fill those spots. I hope Vivien Le is healthy this coming season.

Since the three countries in category A (Russia/Japan/South Korea) are likely to use all their 14 total JGP spots, it'll be interesting to see if any of the countries in B (1 spot per 7 events) or C (1 spot per 6 events) give up spots since the USA is still first in line for unused spots. After Kazakhstan took full advantage of their rightfully earned slate of spots this season, I'm not expecting much.

 

[haribobo]

Angelina Huang and Ting Cui are 14 (both will turn 15 after July 1). Is "Kim" supposed to be Ashley Lin? Ashley Kim WD from the Junior Ladies event at Nationals.

Thanks, and yes, oops.

 

[pinky166]

I don't know about Vincent. But I know Nathan had it when he was younger.

Yeah Nathan was dealing with that for years. Anna Pogo too! So there's hope for Tessa.

Vincent had a pretty serious injury a couple years ago but I don't think it was OS

 

[Marco]

I think going senior is the best move for Tessa at this point. It is really easy to drown in a junior field or at least finish low enough to not get a 2nd event. And bombing in a junior event seems sort of harder to bounce back from than bombing a senior event. There are plenty of senior B opportunities to go around, and that may be much more exciting to look forward to, in addition to much greater visibility and status bonus if you do well. Medaling in a senior B is often as simple as beating out Joshi or something. Not that hard to do.

She is likely to score a Skate America invite (and ofcourse, a SLC fall int'l invite) if they care about her enough to give special approval for Frank to take her on again.

 

[haribobo]

Which of Angela Wang and Caroline Zhang gets left out in the cold for SA in that instance? There is also Bradie Tennell to consider, and perhaps Vivian Le. I hope summer results are considered because its hard to call at this point.

 

[icellist]

As of 21-Mar-2017

US Ladies World Standings
05 3468 Ashley Wagner
07 3370 Mirai Nagasu
09 3303 Gracie Gold
16 2366 Karen Chen
30 1877 Mariah Bell
32 1734 Courtney Hicks
36 1664 Polina Edmunds
55 1076 Angela Wang
73 0834 Tyler Pierce
74 0827 Amber Glenn
80 0767 Bradie Tennell
...
147 312 Tessa Hong
163 225 Caroline Zhang

US Ladies 2016-2017 Season's Best
12 196.44 Ashley WAGNER
14 194.95 Mirai NAGASU
20 191.59 Mariah BELL
28 184.22 Gracie GOLD
30 183.60 Amber GLENN
31 182.98 Courtney HICKS
39 179.39 Karen CHEN
48 168.98 Bradie TENNELL

Top 24 in WS and SB are given priority for GP slots
Ashley will get 2 assignments for placing top 10 at Worlds
Mirai is almost guaranteed 2 assignments from WS and SB
Gracie, Karen, Mariah are guaranteed at least 1 from either WS or SB
* Karen and Mariah can guarantee 2 assignments be placing top 10 at Worlds or better their chances by raising their SB (Karen) or WS (Mariah)

Courtney is not guaranteed any assignment but will be high on the alternates list. I think she will get at least one

If Gracie only received 1 assignment at the beginning, SkAm will be hers (with Karen)
If Polina chooses to return, she is high up on USFSA radar to get SkAm
USFSA probably will not bother giving Courtney the SkAm slot because of her alternate position
USFSA will most likely give CS to Gracie, Polina, Courtney, Angela, Amber, Bradie, Caroline (that's 7 already without the 1-4 at nationals)

I highly doubt Tessa will get SkAm.

 

[Frida80]

As of 21-Mar-2017

US Ladies World Standings
05 3468 Ashley Wagner
07 3370 Mirai Nagasu
09 3303 Gracie Gold
16 2366 Karen Chen
30 1877 Mariah Bell
32 1734 Courtney Hicks
36 1664 Polina Edmunds
55 1076 Angela Wang
73 0834 Tyler Pierce
74 0827 Amber Glenn
80 0767 Bradie Tennell
...
147 312 Tessa Hong
163 225 Caroline Zhang

US Ladies 2016-2017 Season's Best
12 196.44 Ashley WAGNER
14 194.95 Mirai NAGASU
20 191.59 Mariah BELL
28 184.22 Gracie GOLD
30 183.60 Amber GLENN
31 182.98 Courtney HICKS
39 179.39 Karen CHEN
48 168.98 Bradie TENNELL

Top 24 in WS and SB are given priority for GP slots
Ashley will get 2 assignments for placing top 10 at Worlds
Mirai is almost guaranteed 2 assignments from WS and SB
Gracie, Karen, Mariah are guaranteed at least 1 from either WS or SB
* Karen and Mariah can guarantee 2 assignments be placing top 10 at Worlds or better their chances by raising their SB (Karen) or WS (Mariah)

Courtney is not guaranteed any assignment but will be high on the alternates list. I think she will get at least one

If Gracie only received 1 assignment at the beginning, SkAm will be hers (with Karen)
If Polina chooses to return, she is high up on USFSA radar to get SkAm
USFSA probably will not bother giving Courtney the SkAm slot because of her alternate position
USFSA will most likely give CS to Gracie, Polina, Courtney, Angela, Amber, Bradie, Caroline (that's 7 already without the 1-4 at nationals)

I highly doubt Tessa will get SkAm.

Great post. It's also important to note that Karen is relatively unknown. USFS will want a strong name to headline the event. Which is why Gracie is most likely to get the spot. If Polina is strong in the summer, they definitely give it to her. Tessa's only shot at international placements is a CS and even that is low given how so many ladies will want spots.